The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[CjSuAvE22]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Oh no.  Please tell me we’re not going to have to argue about idiot Jay Gruden’s take on QBs. 
 

Please God. No.

I wish we had Gruden the last 4 years opposed to Rivera.

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

Ron goes on ESPN and everybody laughs and points at him as though he’s a clown.  
 

 

But Cam Newton? Without him Rivera is way under 500 as a coach. Yes Rivera is a clown and ill get blasted for saying that by many of you because I said it 4 years ago that we wouldn’t be any good with him, but people told me they were glad I wasn’t running the team. 

[SonnySideUp]

Reporterdly for a conditional 6th.....

Edited March 17 by SonnySideUp

[88Comrade2000]

Only thing about Dan O is his loud suits and sneakers. He’s just another talking head. Surprised he didn’t get cut, when espn was trimming staff.

[Mooka]

What a difference with this FO. 

 

We used to be the team that buys high and sells low.... or even sell for absolutely nothing. 

 

Feeling better and better that Peters will select the right guy at 2 to be our franchise QB. And if we swing and miss so be it. Not going to rebuild this entire roster in 1 year. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Jags said:

and in hindsight he's done pretty well.

Not really. He is no better than anyone else historically. 

14 minutes ago, SonnySideUp said:

Reporterdly for a conditional 6th.....

[oraphus]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

They’ve come out and loudly said Fields is the backup and won’t even compete for the starting job. 
 

Russ is better than Fields by a lot anyway.  (Except to Bram). I doubt he sees Fields as a remote threat to his starting.  

I’m not that sure that Russ is all that much better they Fields at this point and time.  The basic plan is that both are better than what they had last year and both are cheap this year.  One will show up to be the better qb in the off season, the other will be traded for future draft capital.. book it!

[Voice_of_Reason]

14 minutes ago, oraphus said:

I’m not that sure that Russ is all that much better they Fields at this point and time.  The basic plan is that both are better than what they had last year and both are cheap this year.  One will show up to be the better qb in the off season, the other will be traded for future draft capital.. book it!

Russ was having a good season last year, Payton just didn’t want him around at all.  
 

I don’t know what he’s got left, but I trust Tomlin to get the most out of him.  

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

40 minutes ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

I wish we had Gruden the last 4 years opposed to Rivera.

 

Disagree so strongly. Gruden would not have survived the Snyder culture of team wide sexual harassment revelations. He had his own skeletons.

 

Gruden was busy getting drunk 10 hours before games while trying to cheat on his wife.

 

His offense was not good. I remember Chris Cooley saying Gruden was not accepting input to help his play designs. Or shift them based on opponent.

 

Gruden was the best Snyder could get after chasing the Shanahan's out of town. The next replacement happened only because he had to throw in General Manager power to Rivera, who was in way over his head. Rivera only realized he needed to hire support staff to help him GM 2 years into it.

 

Was Rivera good? No. But Bruce Allen and Jay Gruden were worse. They would have torpedoed us to the point Snyder would have traded the farm for Trey Lance.

10 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Russ was having a good season last year, Payton just didn’t want him around at all.  
 

I don’t know what he’s got left, but I trust Tomlin to get the most out of him.  

 

Sean Payton revitalized Russell Wilson from his awful 2022 season to the point we have to wonder how much was Wilson and how much was Sean Payton. Him jettisoning Wilson has to be a yellow flag at best for Wilson treading water productions wise in 2024.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Jags said:

Orlovsky is a conceited dope.

 

Orlovsky is a play by play broadcaster and a good one.  He is not a draftnik nor a skilled talent evaluator.  Neither is Chris Simms, nor is Kurt Warner.  They're TV guys whose job is doing broadcasts and NFL analysis, and the only reason they're moonlighting with draft content is because it's the current topic for NFL analysis and driving viewership for their programs.  Draft stuff is not their expertise, not their livelihood, and not even a passion project for them.  And none of them are good at it.  I know people on this board that I think are absolutely better at college prospect evaluation and projection than them, and I think most of the analysis that Simms and Orlovsky offer is actually just second/third hand stuff they hear from agents and team employees that talk to them.  Stuff that's often tainted by agenda.  Their own agenda isn't accurate evaluation or projection, and there are absolutely no consequences for them for bad evaluation.  Their agenda is to make TV content.

[ThatNFLChick]

Riddick and Allbright were both dead on about Fields and Pittsburgh 

 

[Jags]

20 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Orlovsky is a play by play broadcaster and a good one.  He is not a draftnik nor a skilled talent evaluator.  Neither is Chris Simms, nor is Kurt Warner.  They're TV guys whose job is doing broadcasts and NFL analysis, and the only reason they're moonlighting with draft content is because it's the current topic for NFL analysis and driving viewership for their programs.  Draft stuff is not their expertise, not their livelihood, and not even a passion project for them.  And none of them are good at it.  I know people on this board that I think are absolutely better at college prospect evaluation and projection than them

 

Yeah, uhhhhh, so like I said, there's way more nuance to it than that.

 

I'm sure there's folks here who watch a lot of college football and have played a bunch, maybe even at high levels.  But yeah, I'll take Kurt Warner's eval IN CONTEXT -- meaning, again, that all he's doing is showing you film, telling you what he's looking for, then what he actually sees -- over any anonymous person on a message board. 

 

Now I'm new here, so maybe there's a genius or two here that I'm unfamiliar with, and my apologies if that's the case.  But that dude's a Hall of Fame quarterback who maybe knows some things we don't about quarterbacking.  Simms grew up neck-deep in it, went through the college to NFL process, and spent a little time in the league.  And again, all he's doing is telling you want he sees.  He draws conclusions unlike Warner, but he's really detailed in telling you how he arrived there.  You're free to draw conclusions of your own.

 

Are there better qualified people?  Sure there are, but the only ones that are truly on another level are the people that work for NFL teams, and they ain't telling us squat.

 

So no, I'm not going to dismiss them all out of hand because Random Internet Dude #96,426 wants to provocatively paint them with the same brush.  I'll take them as I find them.  Take from them what I find interesting, ask questions of my own in a place like this full of people trying to learn the same thing, tapping into whatever other resources that might be out there.  You know, like a thinking person should.  If you've got a different approach that works for you when researching your hobbies, I'm happy for you.  👍

[Conn]

39 minutes ago, Jags said:

 

Yeah, uhhhhh, so like I said, there's way more nuance to it than that.

 

I'm sure there's folks here who watch a lot of college football and have played a bunch, maybe even at high levels.  But yeah, I'll take Kurt Warner's eval IN CONTEXT -- meaning, again, that all he's doing is showing you film, telling you what he's looking for, then what he actually sees -- over any anonymous person on a message board. 

 

Now I'm new here, so maybe there's a genius or two here that I'm unfamiliar with, and my apologies if that's the case.  But that dude's a Hall of Fame quarterback who maybe knows some things we don't about quarterbacking.  Simms grew up neck-deep in it, went through the college to NFL process, and spent a little time in the league.  And again, all he's doing is telling you want he sees.  He draws conclusions unlike Warner, but he's really detailed in telling you how he arrived there.  You're free to draw conclusions of your own.

 

Are there better qualified people?  Sure there are, but the only ones that are truly on another level are the people that work for NFL teams, and they ain't telling us squat.

 

So no, I'm not going to dismiss them all out of hand because Random Internet Dude #96,426 wants to provocatively paint them with the same brush.  I'll take them as I find them.  Take from them what I find interesting, ask questions of my own in a place like this full of people trying to learn the same thing, tapping into whatever other resources that might be out there.  You know, like a thinking person should.  If you've got a different approach that works for you when researching your hobbies, I'm happy for you.  👍

 

Don’t you think if it was as easy as having a smart HOF QB watch college QB tape to find a franchise QB, that the league would have cracked it? These guys know how to break down NFL tape (though Romo five years later shows that they lose their fastball quickly and the league evolves beyond them quickly when they’re no longer in meeting rooms every day). They sometimes (not always) know a lot about college schemes. Sometimes they don’t, and have unmissable biases against what certain college QB’s are asked to do. They do not know how to project these guys to the NFL, for the most part. Warner is a great example because he hates college football, hates college offense and the majority of college schemes and play calling. He can’t even stand to watch it except a few cut-ups this time of year only, to have an opinion to present for his NFL draft audience. He only cares about mechanics and what guys aren’t able to show in their college schemes—which leads to him overvaluing the things they do show, because he’s not projecting a skillset he’s watching tape like it’s a Monday after a loss. Good evaluators learn to look past things like that to really dig into the meat of what a guy can do, how a guy and his tools can be developed to fit in the league. It’s a niche talent. 

 

Kurt Warner watching three random games (at most) of a guy does not deserve the trust you’re giving him. These guys are NOT talent evaluators, they cannot project talent to the league at all. There’s a reason why total nobodies who live on the road 180 days a year and grind  tape the rest of the year, for $45,000, are the ones who work their way up the ranks over long careers and eventually become GM’s. Having played in the league for a long time (even at a high level!) does not prepare someone to evaluate talent. It’s not that simple, at any position. Clinton Portis was a great RB. You do not want him evaluating college RB’s. Peyton Manning, an all-time great known for his attention to detail and perfect memory of schemes and defensive looks, is not a guy you want scouting your QB’s. It’s not a qualifier. Most of these ex-QB’s on TV and on twitter are horrendous at it, even worse than NFL FO’s (who already have a low hit rate)

Edited March 17 by Conn

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Orlovsky is a play by play broadcaster and a good one.  He is not a draftnik nor a skilled talent evaluator.  Neither is Chris Simms, nor is Kurt Warner.  They're TV guys whose job is doing broadcasts and NFL analysis, and the only reason they're moonlighting with draft content is because it's the current topic for NFL analysis and driving viewership for their programs.  Draft stuff is not their expertise, not their livelihood, and not even a passion project for them.  And none of them are good at it.  I know people on this board that I think are absolutely better at college prospect evaluation and projection than them, and I think most of the analysis that Simms and Orlovsky offer is actually just second/third hand stuff they hear from agents and team employees that talk to them.  Stuff that's often tainted by agenda.  Their own agenda isn't accurate evaluation or projection, and there are absolutely no consequences for them for bad evaluation.  Their agenda is to make TV content.

 

 

Pretty accurate. I'd add that many of these guys are often reading stuff written for them by media staffers.

[illone]

This is what makes football so damn fun.

 

Playing the game at a high level does NOT mean you can predict the future success of another player.

 

Predicting the future success of another player correctly does not mean you can do it again...

 

I liked Kurt Warner when he was on the nfl network breaking down games and making incorrect game predictions every week.

 

His podcast is sleepy, though. I've tried to watch it a few times... Yawn.

 

If you ever have trouble sleeping, turn that thing on, guaranteed 😴

 

 

[Jags]

8 minutes ago, Conn said:

Don’t you think if it was as easy as having a smart HOF QB watch college QB tape to find a franchise QB, that the league would have cracked it?

 

Okay, let's try this again.  Literally no one said that Warner found a franchise QB.  Also, no one said that anyone's cracking anything or that Warner or anyone has The Rosetta Stone for figuring out college quarterbacks.  None of the guys I mentioned claim to be able to predict the future success of a player.  Stop putting words in my mouth.

 

What I said pretty clearly more than once is that Warner broke down some film from his perspective.  He didn't claim to be the end-all-be-all authority on anything.  Shows you the film, tells you what he's looking for, then tells you what he sees.  No rankings, no big assertions or claims.  Just film breakdown from the perspective of a quarterback that did the college thing, pretty uniquely worked his way into the league through attrition, went to a few Super Bowls, won one, and landed in the Hall of Fame.  I agree his videos are sleepy.  Dude's got the charisma of a lawnchair.  But he knows a teensy bit about NFL quarterbacks.

My argument reeks of authority bias, and yours is riddled with hyperbole.  All I'm saying is there's nuance; that there's some solid takes out there; that some are actually better than others.  But you won't let this go until I agree that they're all idiots because you say so...

 

[FootballZombie]

I don't take anybody as gospel. I make my own choices after looking guys over and compartmentalize what other people say about a prospect.

 

I greatly prefer to hear from guys who do this for a living and I like hearing from guys that have some clout to fall back on opposed to rando internet people.

I may not agree with everything they find, but I can take the time to hear them out and re-examine areas where we don't align.

 

 

But there are some things I do put increased emphasis on, like when a former QB talks about proper mechanics. They played the game at the highest level, I expect them to be great at noticing problems here or there.

 

Case in point when Phil Simms was on a podcast w/ his son, they both compared their notes about JDs mechanics and while tehy loved it for the most part, they had the exact same flaw identified. He does not engage and rotate his torso consistently enough when throwing. Since throwing is a full body trebuchet, they claimed this robs a passer of power.

 

I had not picked this up myself but after being told, yeah I totally see it in a lot of his passes. Waist snap, arm snap, but not so much torso snap.

 

 

There is value in a lot of these analysis, and great value in some places over others.

I don't let them reshape the identity of a guy I have examined myself, but I can certainly take bits and pieces as I go.

Edited March 17 by FootballZombie

[SkinsGuy]

I strictly only listen to analysts that agree with me.  

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Only thing about Dan O is his loud suits and sneakers. He’s just another talking head. Surprised he didn’t get cut, when espn was trimming staff.

Comrade and wanting people fired. Name a more iconic duo.

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

These guys that played the game at the highest level deserve respect if you ask me. They were professionals who had professional coaches in their ears over and over and over. Week in, week out. Sat in meetings every week, soaking up information constantly. Watching film for hours and hours and hours. Hearing gameplans being installed each week. For years. Sometimes well over a decade. It's just funny to picture a 400 pound dude ( who never even played or coached Little League ) on his couch, eating Cheetos and screaming at Tony Romo " you stupid moron! You don't know what you're talking about you doofus! " 

[HTTRDynasty]

My Daniels/Fields comp is still where I’m at with him. 

 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

Keim:

 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

My Daniels/Fields comp is still where I’m at with him. 

 

 

 

 

He has one of the lowest adjusted completion percentages via PFF last year. and 60% completion rate for his career

[mac8887]

6 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Disagree so strongly. Gruden would not have survived the Snyder culture of team wide sexual harassment revelations. He had his own skeletons.

 

It’s the nipple pinching thing, we all know the only reason he got upset was because it was on camera. I bet they had nipple pinching orgys every day after practice. 2 times on game day. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Keim:

 

 

As to the Keim stuff, he's vacilliated on Maye versus Daniels.  The previous time he said Maye.  Last time he said Daniels.  but also said he doesn't know and doesn't think they know, so he's guessing.  He said in one segment it can change from day to day.

 

I'll take Keim though very seriously on this post team visits.  He believes that its important in their evaluation.  

 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Orlovsky is a play by play broadcaster and a good one.  He is not a draftnik nor a skilled talent evaluator.  Neither is Chris Simms, nor is Kurt Warner.  They're TV guys whose job is doing broadcasts and NFL analysis, and the only reason they're moonlighting with draft content is because it's the current topic for NFL analysis and driving viewership for their programs.  Draft stuff is not their expertise, not their livelihood, and not even a passion project for them.  And none of them are good at it.  I know people on this board that I think are absolutely better at college prospect evaluation and projection than them, and I think most of the analysis that Simms and Orlovsky offer is actually just second/third hand stuff they hear from agents and team employees that talk to them.  Stuff that's often tainted by agenda.  Their own agenda isn't accurate evaluation or projection, and there are absolutely no consequences for them for bad evaluation.  Their agenda is to make TV content.

 

The agent part of this is key.  Other reporters have said the same.  They are talked to by agents a lot often with an agenda.  Interestingly, something I learned recently is that some agents are adept at bad mouthing competition for their client.  Lets say for example two LTs are slated to go top 10.  One agent might spread a lot of crap on the other LT, hey he's falling, NFL teams don't think much of said player, etc.

 

What makes me somewhat suspicious is guys like Orlovosky can do U-turns out of the blue on certain prospects, deep in the draft process, when there is no new games to watch or anything that warrants a change in opinion.   Riddick for example lets it slip in some of his broadcasts that he's gotten very close to the family (I presume the agent) of the players he's pushing.  Maybe sometimes this is incidental.  But plenty have said its a game behind the scenes and the agents are the master chess players.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 17 by Skinsinparadise