Jags

There is zero chance anyone is paying QB prices to move up to 2 to take a receiver. MHJ isn't that much better than the next couple WRs in the draft.

I see where you're coming from, but it's not as linear as that. Let's say your guy runs a third of the time. He's spending a third less time in the pocket, so that's a third off the top right away. So the argument boils down to: "Do NFL quarterbacks get hurt more/worse while they're running or while they're in the pocket?" And people have studied that and the result is typically that running QBs don't get hurt more often, and it's problematic to try to quantify severity of injury because it depends on the hit. However, it seems logical to me that while they may not get hurt more often, their style of play isn't sustainable if those injuries pile up. A running QB that loses a step or two has to reinvent their pocket instincts entirely. They don't have the ESCAPE button they've had their whole lives, so they have to learn to be pocket passers or their efficacy plummets. Yeah, there's a lot of talk out there for sure, but there's also Steve Young the Buccaneer and Steve Young the 49er, y'know? But we're Equal Opportunity Destroyers of Careers here. We broke Smith and Fitzpatrick, too, and knocked Wentz around quite a bit. The only guy that could survive here was Heinicke running for his life with zero expectations from the crowd (which is why we loved him). And when we did have a guy worth keeping, we couldn't run him out of town fast enough. Now I personally believe that RGIII would have busted regardless because he was an egomaniacal douche. But lots of people have wondered what might've happened if he played for an organization that told him NO, you can't play hurt because we traded a mountain of value for a quarterback OF THE FUTURE. So we're going to be responsible and take care of you, and we're going to surround you with people who will drill into your head that Hero Ball is for morons. Plus, Kirk's playing pretty good. Sit down. Yeah, that's how I felt about it, too. Why not have two guys that might develop into a winner? But I'm no expert and the trade value was pretty damn good. I just wish it wasn't Mariota. If it's not about style of play and just helping a young QB navigate minefield of being an NFL starter, get Flacco. But I guess Mariota is a serviceable amalgam of the guy you'd be comfortable starting if you had to (Howell) and a respected, savvy vet that you hope doesn't play at all (Flacco).

I think it's closer than that, but the one thing you can definitely say is that Elway did it without the tools that Young had around him. Elway dragged that team to the playoffs and championship games by himself a lot of the time. Thank God they finally put a real offense around him at the end. Miami never did with Marino, who I think maybe had the best arm ever. But to each his own. I like the warriors, and Young and Elway are definitely on that list. Kelly comes to mind, McNabb had it for a while there... Anyway, the type of guys you'd choose to start a game for you with your life on the line; the ones that leave it all on the field, 24/7. Like receivers... Moss might be the best pure specimen ever, but that dude took games off; delighted in not putting in the effort when he got pissed. Screw that guy. TO came with a lot of drama, too, but he brought it on gameday every time. Rice. Megatron. Fitzgerald. Monk, for that matter. Gamers.

Right. Fun. I prefer the same kinds of QBs VOR does. Guys like Marino and Roethlisberger who would find the 1 square foot of space inside the pocket, stand on it, and get the ball where they wanted it to go, no matter what chaos was going on around them. But the duel threat guys are fun to watch. Then we got one and he was an egomaniacal injury machine and now I have PTSD and pleasepleaseplease don't put me through that again... I see your Elway and raise you a Steve Young. Legend. People don't talk about him enough.

I agree with everything in this post, and this sums it up nicely. I'm leaning Maye, too, but I won't be heartbroken if it's Daniels. I love football, and dual-threat QBs are fun. When I see one take off it's always, "go... Go... GO!!!!!" But when it's MY guy it's, "get down... Get Down... SLIDE!!!!!" Then I close my eyes and hope the announcers don't say, "Oh no... ... ...That's just... Gross... I mean, ew... They're not supposed to bend like that... [dry heaving sounds]... Sorry, Steve... How are they going to put him on a stretcher all twisted up that way?" And so on. That's what I'm talking about. Watching him with that W on his helmet was going to ****ing kill me. But then he showed up to his pro day looking like this and I'm thinking maybe I'll be able to survive it with a pacemaker cuz dude looked like an extra from Captain Phillips like 6 months ago...

And I would say the exact same thing. A fair difference. No hyperbole there. I agree. And then there's... ...hyperbole galore. Maye is tall. A quarter inch taller. Big difference? And built? Did you see him without his shirt on at his pro day? Not remotely built. Like barely at all. Now to be fair, he doesn't have to be. The wider meso frame is an advantage, and his actual build in terms of musculature is absolutely fine. He's well-proportioned with a great wingspan, and his arm talent shows his flexibility. But no, he's not built. In fact, it's kinda the other way around. Daniels has that ectomorphic build for sure, which isn't ideal. But he's pretty well built for a guy with that frame. He was definitely rail-thin last year, but look at the meat on his legs at his pro day. He's back to looking like he did a couple years ago... And yeah, I'm sure he went to McDonald's and hydrated his ass off, but that's what you do when you're making that change. There's no question he's been chasing that with workouts. You're right that he's thin comparatively speaking. But he's laid out the way you'd want a guy his size to be for sure, and no, Maye is no Adonis, even by comparison. Most of the weight difference is the mesomorphic frame. For the record, this is how I feel about it, 100%. I think his weight at his pro day was probably accurate and that he looked strong. Part of my concern with his frame is how top-heavy he seemed, so adding weight to his base (which was very evident that day) is a good sign. But I also agree that he's likely maxed out his frame for the most part. 220 might not be unattainable, but the worry with a high-metabolism ecto build is how hard he'd have to work in the gym to keep it on. I don't want my franchise guy putting those kinds of miles on his body in the gym, plus it's a great way to overdevelop and hurt yourself. If he can learn to better protect himself I'm not too concerned with his size.

Dude didn't miss a start in 55 games in college, despite his size and sack/hit tendencies. In his entire college career he missed like 15 minutes because he had to clear concussion protocol (and did). Now of course that's not the NFL, but it shows that he's been durable versus everything thrown at him so far. He did curb his reckless tendencies a lot the second half of last year, so it can be argued that he's already making that adjustment. And he had his best games late in the year, so those tweaks didn't slow down his results. The coaches don't make the decision, and none of the coaches are talking to the press at all, so that concern doesn't appear to have any real weight behind it. It's just connected to that fear that many have with Daniels -- they feel he'll be injured and that Maye is the safer pick, thus skewing the narrative in that direction. And that might be logical, but there's no actual info out there telling that story. So that quarter inch of height and 15 pounds of weight is THAT transformative? The difference between utter devastation and prototypical size is the weight of a bowling ball? I agree that the overall style of Daniels' game has never aged all that well in the NFL, but we're getting hyperbolic about the weight thing. Because a dude said the Commanders "really like" JJ on Twitter? There's a ton to "really like" about all the top QBs in this draft. You don't think the same guys really like Daniels, Williams, and Maye? Look, despite my responses to these quotes, I'm still leaning Maye. I just think it helps to be honest about the actual information we have, and to be careful to separate "actual info" from all the rampant speculation that goes on this time of year ahead of every draft. Daniels' size looked surprisingly good at his pro day, especially his legs. And Maye threw like an absolute beast on his pro day, showing very little of the issues people are harping on. The issues are there for sure, but he nailed a 70-throw script at a pace no one else even came close to during their throwing sessions. Lots of bogus narratives out there dominating the news cycle at the moment, in my opinion.

I didn't say that he's not humble or thinks he's perfect. I said his answer didn't demonstrate that humility, and that it could easily mean nothing. But Daniels' answers to that question have been pretty perfect. The only thing I think that proves is that there IS an upside to Daniels being older. He's more mature, better prepared, and understands what's expected of him in this process. Maye's answer -- if it's telling at all -- might show that he thinks of humility as a weakness. That's pretty typical of young men, especially in the sports world. Or he might just be getting inferior advice from the people around him helping him navigate the process. 🤷‍♂️ And look, there IS evidence to the contrary. Drake had to adapt to a new offense in 2023 and soldier through a big drop in talent around him. That shows an ability to change, and there was a lot to be said about his mettle and toughness in there, too. And even afterward. Make no mistake, sometimes it takes a big serving of humble pie to teach someone humility. Josh Allen didn't arrive in the NFL a changed man. It took a couple years in Buffalo to make him realize he was dissatisfied with his game. THEN he turned it around. I think the lesson there for us is to help our guy get to that place as early and often as possible, regardless of who we choose. There's at least two or three QBs floating around the league whose team quit on them before they even had a chance to turn it around. We can't be one of those teams. A #2 overall pick in a deep QB draft is ridiculously valuable. We can't waste that by refusing to be patient if it doesn't pay off right away.

It's a humility thing. He had the presence of mind to see that there were issues to solve, trusted the right people, went to Biometrics, and got it sorted out. There's certainly an intelligence component to it, too -- you have to be able to understand what you're being asked to do, why it's important, and follow the stops to fix it -- but the big thing is you can't be an egomaniac about it. You're not perfect. You're not a finished product, and the game is constantly evolving. If you're going to be any good at all, you'll be learning new things your entire career. Willingness and ability to change. As I said in my last post, I see more of that in Daniels than Maye, but that's based on very little info (cuz 100% of what I'm talking about takes place behind the scenes). It also doesn't help that they're selling themselves to teams right now, so a lot of what we DO see could easily be baloney.

Agreed. It's also one of the issues I have with Daniels. All this talk about the development time Maye might need because he'll need to retrain himself to blah blah blah. And I agree with some of that, but the process Daniels will have to go through to change his running/sack tendencies is no different, figures to take no less time, and might get him killed in the meantime... ...and this is one of the big things I like about Daniels. When talking about the things he might need to change, Maye hasn't said much of substance, and has been reiterating his confidence in his game and ability. Now that's most likely just pre-draft sound bites fed to him by his reps and not a big deal, but it sounds like the kind of bull**** you hear interviewing anyone for a job -- "My biggest weakness is that I work too hard and care too much." So it might be nothing, but it could be a lack of humility, and that's a real problem when you have issues that need fixing. Look no further than RG3's headstrong nonsense. Daniels, on the other hand, has been very humble (and seemingly more candid and genuine) when answering that question. He's talked a lot about the things he feels he needs to work on. Maye clearly has an impressive work ethic, but a willingness to work doesn't mean much if you can't look inward and identify your issues. All in all, being honest about each guy's strengths and weaknesses is just underscoring how complicated this process is and how different the candidates are in both style and substance. Very different, and yet somehow pretty equally talented and flawed... I'm super glad we have a front office that appears to be analyzing every option and detail.

Did he regress or did the offense overall? I think a lot of people would argue that throwing for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns per game is pretty good for a QB dealing with the installation of a new offense and a significant downgrade in both receiving and O-line talent. I mean, which season means more when you consider the transition they're about to make to shaky NFL teams: The guy who played in God Mode with a stacked offensive roster in his 5th year or the guy who adapted and dealt with a lot of adversity switching offenses and dealing with lackluster talent around him in his 2nd year? Daniels played versus superior talent, so that mitigates it a bit, but Maye just had a college year very similar to the year he's about to have if the team that drafts him has him start. Showing he could still thrive despite a new offense and weak O-line isn't nothing considering that's exactly what he's likely to be dealing with this year in the NFL. I'm certainly no expert, and I'm torn as to which guy figures to be better, but while figuring out how I feel about each candidate I've found that it helps to be honest. I don't think Maye regressed at all. I think he did the best he could despite the team around him disintegrating significantly year-to-year.

Why the 30 yard line? I always took the move to the 25 as giving an extra 5 yards to discourage running it out. And I hated it because 80-yard drives were the norm forever. Now it's the 30? Makes no sense to me. A touchback should still be the 20 no matter what. A 10-yard reward for being able to kick far is dumb. Get off my lawn! 😉

Makes me wonder how it'd feel if you were Maye, ended up going to the Giants, and then it comes out over time that, yeah, they did everything they could think of to tank your stock so they could draft you. If that happened to you, would you... Laugh it off and be flattered. Quickly realize that this immediately cost you $6 million and vow to get every penny back on your next deal, plus interest. Drag your new team on social media and act like the spiritual offspring of Johnny Manziel and Jaime Tartt, reality show and all. Not bother responding to silly questions on a sports message board in the first place. I believe that they're still undecided though. No sense having your minds made up when there's still plenty of opportunities to learn more. Seems similar to how they landed Quinn (unless you buy the narrative that they screwed the whole thing up and settled). Chose their candidates and went through a thorough process, not worrying too much about time and options coming off the board cuz those guys clearly didn't want this job anyway. Good way to get the right coach, might work for QB, too.

But remember our luck. We make that deal then can't move up to get JJ, maybe end up with Penix. And he's great, but remember our luck. Penix's leg falls off at his introductory presser, and we're left with Mariota missing or not seeing Jefferson for 17 games next year, still win enough to bork our draft position next year because of the other upgrades and coaching. And maybe we can come back from that, but remember our luck. Penix gets a weird necrosis from the bum limb that turns into the zombie disease we all know is coming, half the population gets eaten by their neighbors, we get hit hardest because we were at ground zero, so the team really sucks and we do manage to finally get a #1 overall pick just in time for like the worst (and smelliest) draft class ever. Maybe some of the flyover colleges will survive cuz they have all the preppers and guns, and we'll get some super elite stud QB from Bama or wherever. Prolly not though, because REMEMBER OUR LUCK. Or maybe it'll all work out fine. You do you.

I think some of these things are mitigated by the reality of their situations. You can say that a team failed to "get over the hurdle" but when that hurdle is the Mahomes/Reid Chiefs, you've gotta give a lot of that credit to the Chiefs. That particular hurdle is 12 feet high and wrapped in electrified barbed wire, y'know? Jackson's had to clear that same hurdle, and Hurts didn't get knocked out by nobody. Manning's hurdle being Brady/Belichick was often just as or more insurmountable. So I don't know how many of those are pure failures, or just the whole NBA appearing to suck whenever Jordan wanted a title. Lots of great players and teams barely sniffed a championship and never won because of the Bulls. Didn't make those players, coaches, or "styles" any less great. They just weren't enough to topple the best ever. What we're seeing in the NFL is the parity of the cap era. Every team can build a winner and many prove it every year. I don't think a particular style of QB play can't win it just because they can't unseat ridiculous generational greatness combined with brilliantly assembled teams. Marino could have had a ring for every finger if he played for an organization willing to build a team around him. Elway was the same story until they finally gave him a team at the very end. I don't think Montana would have had even remotely similar success as a Dolphin. A lot of the best examples of great teams or players not getting over the hump just boiled down to unfortunate circumstances. Sometimes the other team was built a hair better, and sometimes the ball just bounces weird that day. *shrug*

I absolutely agree. I wouldn't be here if I didn't think there was value to it. Discussion is a big part of how I tend to work things out. I want to talk out what I'm thinking and hear from people that have different takes. I'm open to learning and having my mind changed. But where I will push back is rare cases like this where I'm being told to completely disregard a big swath of people, some of whom I've come to trust over time, and some that just feel trustworthy to me because of their experience and credentials because *I* am by no means an expert. I don't hold any of them up as gurus. But I'm a football fan. I like listening to knowledgeable and/or entertaining people talk about football. It's not always about a mad scramble to find the best information possible, y'know? So when I mention a guy whose take I found interesting and the response from a few people is immediately, "NO! THAT guy is a festering buttblister and complete imbecile! I don't care how long he played in the NFL!" It feels like a bit of an overreaction to me. (Yes, I exaggerated a bit for effect, but not by all that much if we're being honest.) 😉 Not a big deal and I certainly don't mean any disrespect. We're gonna disagree sometimes. Still glad I found this place.

Okay, let's try this again. Literally no one said that Warner found a franchise QB. Also, no one said that anyone's cracking anything or that Warner or anyone has The Rosetta Stone for figuring out college quarterbacks. None of the guys I mentioned claim to be able to predict the future success of a player. Stop putting words in my mouth. What I said pretty clearly more than once is that Warner broke down some film from his perspective. He didn't claim to be the end-all-be-all authority on anything. Shows you the film, tells you what he's looking for, then tells you what he sees. No rankings, no big assertions or claims. Just film breakdown from the perspective of a quarterback that did the college thing, pretty uniquely worked his way into the league through attrition, went to a few Super Bowls, won one, and landed in the Hall of Fame. I agree his videos are sleepy. Dude's got the charisma of a lawnchair. But he knows a teensy bit about NFL quarterbacks. My argument reeks of authority bias, and yours is riddled with hyperbole. All I'm saying is there's nuance; that there's some solid takes out there; that some are actually better than others. But you won't let this go until I agree that they're all idiots because you say so...

Yeah, uhhhhh, so like I said, there's way more nuance to it than that. I'm sure there's folks here who watch a lot of college football and have played a bunch, maybe even at high levels. But yeah, I'll take Kurt Warner's eval IN CONTEXT -- meaning, again, that all he's doing is showing you film, telling you what he's looking for, then what he actually sees -- over any anonymous person on a message board. Now I'm new here, so maybe there's a genius or two here that I'm unfamiliar with, and my apologies if that's the case. But that dude's a Hall of Fame quarterback who maybe knows some things we don't about quarterbacking. Simms grew up neck-deep in it, went through the college to NFL process, and spent a little time in the league. And again, all he's doing is telling you want he sees. He draws conclusions unlike Warner, but he's really detailed in telling you how he arrived there. You're free to draw conclusions of your own. Are there better qualified people? Sure there are, but the only ones that are truly on another level are the people that work for NFL teams, and they ain't telling us squat. So no, I'm not going to dismiss them all out of hand because Random Internet Dude #96,426 wants to provocatively paint them with the same brush. I'll take them as I find them. Take from them what I find interesting, ask questions of my own in a place like this full of people trying to learn the same thing, tapping into whatever other resources that might be out there. You know, like a thinking person should. If you've got a different approach that works for you when researching your hobbies, I'm happy for you. 👍

I think they're all individuals with varying levels of credibility. Orlovsky is a conceited dope. I forget the sequence, but early on after the start of the offseason he came out guns blazing about one of the top prospects. It wasn't Caleb, one of the other two. He'd just finished watching all this film and DUDE, THIS is the guy to watch out for. THIS guy is the best. Then a couple weeks later he's on some other show having just watched a bunch of film on another one and THAT was suddenly the guy. Orlovsky undermines his own credibility pretty constantly. I like Simms though. He does his rankings around the same time every year, and in hindsight he's done pretty well. Definitely got some right that most didn't. He's also thorough and thoughtful with his analysis. There's always a lot I don't agree with, but at least he's candid about what he's seeing and how he came to the conclusions he did. I disagree that he's just shilling for clicks. He stands by his takes, and they talk in depth about them to start the show the following year. So he puts his name on it, so to speak, which is more than you can say for a lot of these guys who change their minds every 20 minutes. And the stuff out there from Warner. That's legit. He's not saying who's better than who or which team should draft which guy. He's just sharing what he sees; the things he personally finds meaningful and why. And you're free to take it as you find it. I think the majority of the ex-players shouldn't be dismissed so easily or lumped in with the clueless talking heads. And it's pretty easy to spot the ones that you *should* ignore because they're pretty transparent and ham-fisted about the self-promotion and hot takes.

No need to wonder. We'd have broken his leg and almost killed him just like Alex, and he'd never have become "Josh Allen, NFL Star." He just would have been Josh, that dude at the car wash who keeps saying he used to be in the NFL... Oh, that guy that left all those spots on my rims? Yeah, that guy. Pffft. He wasn't in the NFL. Prolly just from north Florida or some ****...

That's scary though, cuz if they try the Brotherly Shove with Daniels, he'll fold up like an accordian.

This left an impression. You can try to project and go get the prototypical this or that, or you can get the guy that's just plain, "Catch the ball? Okay. Catch 2 balls? Okay." Might be nerves, might be dopey. Either way he caught 'em both in stride. I'll take simple ability over pedigree all day. 😉

Yeah, it's not clear to me which is more impressive: Playing in God Mode in the SEC with all the tools around you in your 5th year, or still managing to put up very good stats in a new offense with shaky receivers and a weak offensive line (albeit versus lesser talent). We learned a lot about Daniels' ability to put up a near-perfect season in a near-perfect situation, but I think what we learned about Maye in a year where he had to face a lot of adversity might be more telling, and more immediately relevant given the situation he'll likely land in at that NFL level.

I forget who I heard say it, but it's probably been said a million times... Things speed up at the NFL level, and that's the thing you absolutely cannot see until players reach the pro game. They can be the best prospect in the world, but when the game speeds up, their body and especially their mind has to speed up, too. So many infinitely talented QBs have failed because their brains sputter at that speed. It's super rare to get a Mahomes where it seems like he sees the game in slow motion as it's unfolding. That's one thing (and it's probably silly) when I saw Daniels and Maye get those 10-12 minute interviews with Florio at the combine. Maye wasn't nearly as sharp, wasn't thinking on his feet (a lot of canned responses which is to be expected), not quite as humble, definitely not as mature. To be clear, this was just by comparison. Maye gave a good interview and seems like a great kid. But Daniels was far more relaxed, mature, and candid. Not a big deal at all, just an impression. The only clear takeaway I had is that there IS an upside to Daniels being 2 years older. The maturity is a big one, but if he's as humble as he seemed then he's probably coachable and capable (and humbly willing) to address his shortcomings at the next level. I agree. Trading Howell makes it seem far less likely that we trade down. Without Howell we'll need the rookie to start because no one wants to see Mariota actually play. That can't be the plan. Far more likely to get a possible starter at 2 or 3. I'd trust the FO if they felt that strongly about moving back, but the deal would have to be great and the guy they like better work out. Definitely. Also, the results of those instances don't really matter to me all that much. When plays break down like that, what your receivers do and how talented they are is just as important as the ability of the QB. So the guys with lower percentages, fewer TDs and whatever? That doesn't concern me. And I think that's okay if he's got the right people around him. EB just showed us how not to do it. He threw Howell to the wolves. No running game, very few offensive adjustments to cater to his strengths and help mitigate his weaknesses, throwing it damn near 40 times a game... He did Sam a huge disservice. Howell isn't blameless, but he got a raw deal here with EB. So if Kingsbury and the rest of the staff give him the help a young QB needs, I think either of these guys could have it in them to handle the pressure. Yeah, and they're the same types of things Josh Allen ironed out early on in the NFL. It takes humility though. If he's humble enough to concede that he has issues, all the things he struggles with are fixable. Allen did the Biometrics thing and did the work, bumped his accuracy up dramatically. Maye did waffle a bit when asked at the combine if he had things to work on. Didn't give terrible answers, but wasn't exactly what you'd want to hear either. Daniels was very forthcoming, for what it's worth. His body, body type, and reckless tendencies are the only things that concern me about him. On top of being a phenomenal athlete, he's got all the right personality stuff, too.

Yeah, my point was we saw in a Redskins jersey what he looked like when he couldn't move anymore. Even pure passers need that elusiveness and instinct to move around in the pocket. Marino and Big Ben were deceptively elusive pocket passers that could extend plays big without running at all. McNabb could run. It was a big dimension of his game. And when he lost that and his body couldn't do what it instinctively did his whole life when pressured, he was a fragment of his former self. His game disintegrated. And yeah, that happened after a fantastic career, but the same thing happened here with RG3 very early in his career, and again just recently with Chase Young. When someone has that kind of freakish ability from infancy, sometimes they don't (and don't have to) develop the same skills and fundamentals as everyone else. But then a couple injuries pile up, that elite first step goes away -- the thing that made them special -- and they go from hero to average overnight. And it can happen just as easily in season 1 or 2 as it might in season 17. You can't possibly know that Daniels could lose his mobility and still be a great pocket passer without it. His body does something entirely different when pressured than a QB without that athleticism. Learning how to do it differently would be like learning to walk again. Not impossible, but very difficult. His could easily be a brittle body in the NFL, and he has cavalier running tendencies. Might not be a recipe for disaster, but whatever it is won't taste good or go down easy...