The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Was Payton always a Dbag or has he just grown into that over the past few years?

[NOLA2DC]

25 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It does. Breakout age is one of the most important indicators of future success. Doesn't mean players produce and star anyway as overage prospects, some do, but the hit rate on guys is definitely higher for guys that breakout younger rather than later. 

Explain breakout age. Is it whether or not your first year as a starter is considered a success? If the age variable is strongly correlated with the average age of prospects coming out of college, and if that's the case, I wouldn't consider it statistically significant.  If the average age of guys coming out is 22, for example, I think the results will be skewed in that direction. I just don't see it as a performance-related variable that can be separated from whether you have it or not.   

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

that is not what a pendulum does

[mh86]

21 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

Explain breakout age. Is it whether or not your first year as a starter is considered a success? If the age variable is strongly correlated with the average age of prospects coming out of college, and if that's the case, I wouldn't consider it statistically significant.  If the average age of guys coming out is 22, for example, I think the results will be skewed in that direction. I just don't see it as a performance-related variable that can be separated from whether you have it or not.   

According to playerprofiler.com 

Breakout Age – the younger a person is when he/she first becomes a leader in their respective field, the more likely that person is to go on to become *phenom*enal at their craft. 

And from another-
The next metric is Breakout Age – for a QB this is determined by the age when they posted a College QBR of 50+ whilst averaging 20+ pass plays per team games to qualify. It shows the ability to break the starting lineup in college, showing an ability to learn & develop – aiding a smoother transition to the NFL. Be warned though, as factors like playing behind a stud QB (Murray behind Mayfield at Oklahoma) will result in a skewed / inaccurate metric.

 

this article talks about older QBs a little as well. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/story/_/id/36215753/the-nfl-draft-age-old-question-25-quarterback-succeed-hendon-hooker-stetson-bennett-test-case

 

IMO, it’s a good start, but the amount of QBs that come out older are wayyy less so the stats are a bit skewed. I think with NIL money that will start to change and the average age will increase. Also, breakout age has been very good at predicting WR success and I think LB. QB is a whole different beast as we all know.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Um.  All that's fine but if you add those numbers you get to 96%...

 

What happened to the other 4%?  Voted off the island for picking McCarthy who's so bad he doesn't even qualify for the "other" category?  

 

I just looked at it and went, "wait.  Is that 100%?" then I checked the math, and it's not.  It is, fwiw, closer than i initially thought it was going to be.  

 

Grant Paulson is the WORST at this. I have no idea who Mason is, he looks really young, but my guy needs to proof his tweets.  

45 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Was Payton always a Dbag or has he just grown into that over the past few years?

He was always a Dbag. But Drew Brees might be one of the most likable players in the NFL over the past 40 years.  Literally nobody had anything negative to say about the guy ever.

 

And I think the association with Brees and the fact they won a lot masked the fact the guy was always a bit of a dick.  

 

I follow (a little) the Saints because it's my wife's team.  

Edited March 8 by Voice_of_Reason

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

that is not what a pendulum does

 

True, it would swing back and forth.

 

The Maye discussion definitely though is gotten a bit polarizing.

 

Not sure I agree with the divide below either.  But a divide exists and certainly something that has developed more intensely in the last few weeks.

 

Some draftniks are going to be very right or very wrong in all likelihood.  Be fun to keep score on this one. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8 by Skinsinparadise

[illone]

4 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

The league doesn't know how to find Montana's, Brady's, and even Mahomes types, they know how to find Elways, and that's it. 

 

 

Well said.

 

Makes me wonder wtf they do all day... as i mentioned, you're getting paid millions of dollars to get this right. In ANY other vertical, you model adjust until you improve... Not in the NFL.

 

The NFL reminds me of a bunch of stubborn boomers trying to use the computer for the first time.

 

"Cman Earl, push the power button again"

 

"Chester, it's not plugged in"

 

Actual footage of NFL people doing the draft:

 

52 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Was Payton always a Dbag or has he just grown into that over the past few years?

 

Payton is actually pretty brilliant here.

 

I'd be you a pile of money he wouldn't be saying this if Denver had the #1 pick  

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 minute ago, illone said:

Well said.

 

Makes me wonder wtf they do all day... as i mentioned, you're getting paid millions of dollars to get this right. In ANY other vertical, you model adjust until you improve... Not in the NFL.

 

The NFL reminds me of a bunch of stubborn boomers trying to use the computer for the first time.

 

"Cman Earl, push the power button again"

 

"Chester, it's not plugged in"

 

Actual footage of NFL people doing the draft:

Because it’s impossible to know until you start working with him, just like any other profession hiring guys right out of college. The best you can get is an impression.

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

True, it would swing back and forth.

It also doesn’t go way too far. It would be consistent and return to its equilibrium position. I absolutely HATE Sam Monson.

[NOLA2DC]

1 minute ago, mh86 said:

According to playerprofiler.com 

Breakout Age – the younger a person is when he/she first becomes a leader in their respective field, the more likely that person is to go on to become *phenom*enal at their craft. 

And from another-
The next metric is Breakout Age – for a QB this is determined by the age when they posted a College QBR of 50+ whilst averaging 20+ pass plays per team games to qualify. It shows the ability to break the starting lineup in college, showing an ability to learn & develop – aiding a smoother transition to the NFL. Be warned though, as factors like playing behind a stud QB (Murray behind Mayfield at Oklahoma) will result in a skewed / inaccurate metric.

 

this article talks about older QBs a little as well. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/story/_/id/36215753/the-nfl-draft-age-old-question-25-quarterback-succeed-hendon-hooker-stetson-bennett-test-case

 

IMO, it’s a good start, but the amount of QBs that come out older are wayyy less so the stats are a bit skewed. I think with NIL money that will start to change and the average age will increase. Also, breakout age has been very good at predicting WR success and I think LB. QB is a whole different beast as we all know.

I challenge age as a predictive factor because it's really a byproduct of when you enter the league. The key question is how long it takes you to make an impact after being drafted. For example, we generally expect/hope a rook (regardless of position) to make a significant contribution in their first couple of years in the league. If they don't, you wonder if they are a bust. We routinely hear about whether a player is in the right system or coached correctly if they don't perform early. How fast or whether you breakout has to do more with the average age of rooks than a predictor of performance. More guys with higher grades come out younger than older ones. Unless you control for a number of other variables, I don't buy it. Not all correlation is causation.     

[JamesMadisonSkins]

So even if some of these media pundits are right and Maye has some footwork that needs working out and would be ideal to sit for a year …. Cool. If that’s our guy, we are in a position to do just that. 
 

We’ll get to see Sam Howell showcase his skills with an improved OL. Worst case Sam is Sam, and by mid season we start seeing Maye. Best case, Sam balls out and if Maye progresses, we got ourselves a nice trade piece. 
 

Im not that concerned about Maye needing some time. We aren’t gonna be going anywhere this year in all likelihood. So don’t rush it. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

We don't know how teams leverage Covid years. That could play a major role here.

 

There was the feeling a couple years ago that teams were doing everything in their power to avoid that specific draft class, trading for future picks and whatnot. We don't know how they evaluate prospects that didn't come out then but had to go thru it. Would some teams see that as a free pass or mulligan? Who knows, but we do know the "fear" teams felt at the time was palpable.

The covid year angle is a very good point, point taken. It doesn't change things for me, but its definitely worthy of an asterisk, and as some people on I think playerprofiler mentioned recently, the whole group of ASU guys from those classes with Daniels basically underperformed before breaking out in the NFL. ASU's offense seemed great at recruiting, but not integrating the players effectively to max their potential. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

I would love big mitts but my understanding is anything above 9 inches will work.

 

Jow Burrow and Jared Goff are both 9 inch hands.  Carr and Fields are 9 1/8.  Mayfield and Mahomes are 9 1/4.

 

I'm not too panicked about it.

Thanks for that, I can't remember the ones that were alarming and proved alarming, Purdy was one, and his were apparently 9.25. But I can't remember what the lower level limit before it becomes a concern is, i do know people were fixated partly on Purdy's difficulty in bad weather because of his small hands angle. I was hoping Maye would be 10+ or at least mid 9's, I'm definitely concerned, not panicked, but for sure concerned. 

[RWJ]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

True, it would swing back and forth.

 

The Maye discussion definitely though is gotten a bit polarizing.

 

Not sure I agree with the divide below either.  But a divide exists and certainly something that has developed more intensely in the last few weeks.

 

Some draftniks are going to be very right or very wrong in all likelihood.  Be fun to keep score on this one. 

 

 

 

 

 

Things will crystal clear draft night and it won't take long.  It's Drake Maye @ #2.  LOL  

[mistertim]

24 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

I challenge age as a predictive factor because it's really a byproduct of when you enter the league. The key question is how long it takes you to make an impact after being drafted. For example, we generally expect/hope a rook (regardless of position) to make a significant contribution in their first couple of years in the league. If they don't, you wonder if they are a bust. We routinely hear about whether a player is in the right system or coached correctly if they don't perform early. How fast or whether you breakout has to do more with the average age of rooks than a predictor of performance. More guys with higher grades come out younger than older ones. Unless you control for a number of other variables, I don't buy it. Not all correlation is causation. my guy Jayden Daniels is an older prospect.

 

Fixed

Edited March 8 by mistertim

[Voice_of_Reason]

Ok, a few odds and ends, I've been super busy, haven't been able to do or respond to much.

 

1. I actually don't think the "safe" play is to trade down.  I don't think there is a "safe" play.  And if there was, I would suggest you should avoid it.  You don't win by being safe.  The way to do the draft is not to trade down and hope the more picks you have the better your odds of getting a starter.  The way you win the draft is by hitting on blue-chip players.  The higher you pick, the more likely it is you find a blue chip player.  It's as simple as that.  

 

2. Very short rant about Thor Nystrom on Galdi.  Literally everything he said about everything was wrong, to the point where he said Kliff "turned down better, higher paying jobs to be Caleb William's Offensive Coordinator."  Which, he wasn't.  His take on McCarthy is just flat wrong.  Just like his take on Malik Willis was a few years ago when he said "I've never been so confident the NFL messed up on Malik Willis as I was when they passed on Lamar Jackson."  (Forgetting for a moment, I'm sure, Lamar was a first round pick.)  I can't believe I subjected myself to that absolute drivel, but I did, mostly so I could complain about it.  He's such a dumb **** the fact he gets paid for being a dumb **** and wrong all the time is maddening.  Though, I will predict the future: he's going to downgrade us when we pick Maye because Maye is his 4th QB behind Williams, McCarth and Daniels.  And he has McCarthy ahead of both Daniels and Williams.  If we end up picking McCarthy, I'll eat my words.  But I just don't think he's that good.  

 

3. I'm sure the brain trust has a very hard "lean" as to what they are doing at #2, and I'm sure they haven't told a soul.  Which is why you can get reports they haven't made up their mind yet.  It might be 90% made up, and now they're going through the rest of the process to confirm.  I'd find it really hard to believe at this point they still don't know what they think they're going to do.

 

4. Kirk has the best agent in the game.  All the Kirk to Washington stuff is from his agent.  

 

5. I think the Athletic piece which laid out options for Washington, I think it was co-authored by Standig and somebody, swayed Bram away from being 100% lock-down "Daniels or bust."  He's softened his tone to "I think my preference is Daniels but won't be shocked if it's Maye."  So, some sanity has been restored there.  I was hoping it would happen, and it finally has.  

 

6. There is always a draft day surprise.  Somebody is picked WAY higher than expected, or falls like a rock.  I'm going to call my shot: I think the player who is going to inexplicably fall is McCarthy.  Though, in a strange way, I wouldn't be shocked if it was Daniels.  Thor doesn't think McCarthy gets past 5.  I wouldn't be shocked if he's taken in the teens.  Part of this is because Thor is typically wrong.  Part of it is I think the Michigan, National Championship, Harbaugh and good agent effect are all giving him a shine that his play never deserved.  And for the most part, GMs will see through that.  Now, if we end up picking him somehow, I'll try and get behind it, but it would totally be the "I have a bad feeling about this" Star Wars gif. And I could be wrong about McCarthy.  

 

If the Patriots grab a QB in free agency somehow (big if) I could absolutely seeing them stay put and picking Harrison Jr. to go with the QB at #3.  The conventional wisdom would be "trade back, get picks."  But if one of the best prospects is just sitting there and staring at you, they could trade back. 

21 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

So even if some of these media pundits are right and Maye has some footwork that needs working out and would be ideal to sit for a year …. Cool. If that’s our guy, we are in a position to do just that. 
 

We’ll get to see Sam Howell showcase his skills with an improved OL. Worst case Sam is Sam, and by mid season we start seeing Maye. Best case, Sam balls out and if Maye progresses, we got ourselves a nice trade piece. 
 

Im not that concerned about Maye needing some time. We aren’t gonna be going anywhere this year in all likelihood. So don’t rush it. 

Counter-point:  Maye's first reaction was always to run the hell away from the 3 people who had broken through the OL, because his OL was basically non-existant.  

 

Maybe, if he didn't have to catch and then run screaming away from 3 guys his mechanics would be better.

 

Oh, and all the draft analysts are on the take.  Some agent is paying all of them.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

Hey guys I think we’ve found a solution to our QB dilemma

 

 

[Command The 414]

3 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Hey guys I think we’ve found a solution to our QB dilemma

 

 

I wonder what teams? And for a starting role or as a back up? 

[woodpecker]

6 hours ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

Your opinions are bad, and no one likes them.

Wtf. Love to know what I said to trigger this childish comment.

[illone]

3 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

Wtf. Love to know what I said to trigger this childish comment.

 

 

He was being sarcastic.

 

Extra thick 😂

 

[woodpecker]

1 minute ago, illone said:

 

 

He was being sarcastic.

 

Extra thick 😂

 

thanks but nobody really cares what you think!
 

😜

[DogofWar1]

You know, I kinda see it.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

28 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

Wtf. Love to know what I said to trigger this childish comment.

 

Being bad at posting. Be better.

[skinsfan66]

4 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m prepared to eat crow, but I think Daniels is CB sized at his pro day and he isn’t going in the top 3.

 

Take a look at the photo at Heisman ceremony. Penix is 6.2 and a half, 216.

 

He looks bigger than Daniels. 
 

 

4 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m prepared to eat crow, but I think Daniels is CB sized at his pro day and he isn’t going in the top 3.

 

Take a look at the photo at Heisman ceremony. Penix is 6.2 and a half, 216.

 

He looks bigger than Daniels. 
 

 

3 hours ago, Command The 414 said:

imho Daniels better shine like a star in a dark sky all alone come his Controlled Atmosphere Pro Day… 

Same for Howell and Williams. Daniels needs Visit Mickey D's and down of those Big Mac meals. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

2 hours ago, DWinzit said:

Was Payton always a Dbag or has he just grown into that over the past few years?

 

1. Scab QB

2. Bountygate

3. Still holds a grudge against the Bountygate snitch.

4. Possible pill head.

5. Almost certainly covered up for a pill head who was possibly him.

6. Fired the guy who accused him of being a pill head.

7. Divorced his wife for Kenny Chesney's ex

8. Clearly knows a plastic surgeon who will take payment in stolen pills/Saints tickets/Kenny Chesney tickets..