The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

I think Sam's floor is Gardner Minshew.  That was Jay Gruden's among others early impressions.  I think his ceiling is Derek Carr (when Carr was good).  At this point it wouldn't surprise me either way as to hitting that floor or ceiling.

 

I know some here don't care about the height of the QB.  Some do.  I am somewhere in between.  Greg Cosell when was asked about why Howell fell in the draft -- he said he talked to some personnel types and was told Sam's height, which is about 6 foot and a half (not 6 '1), was part of the narrative -- some in the scouting community believe at that height you need to be uber mobile otherwise dudes at that height don't tend to be special with Brees a notable exception.   

 

I've seen Sam up close in camp, he looks small.  I said so at the time.  And yes i do think its a variable as to his ceiling.   Sam has some nice traits IMO but nothing killer.

 

I'd be stunned if they don't take a QB in this draft.  IMO you got 4 clear QBs in the draft with higher ceilings than Sam.

 

i do think Rivera put a monkey wrench in Sam's development.  It's one of many malpractice moves from Ron who ran one of the dumbest and more arrogant off seasons and coaching jobs this season, I've ever seen.  He pulled a Zorn-Spurrier level dumb season for the ages.   

 

He did nothing to upgrade the O line.  It was a stacked draft for TE yet he didn't take a single one.   They run a pass happy offense and put everything on Sam's plate with no running game to complement.  Little play action.   They just threw him to the wolves.  

Edited January 1 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Should we rely entirely on QB coach showing our rookie how to be a professional and accept season tanking if they get hurt?

Yes, why not ? All this mentor talk is vastly overrated imo.

[PlayAction]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

The key to nurturing a young QB is the running game and a (at least) decent offensive line. 
 

We refused to run and our line stunk.

 

It’s not conducive to growth. And I think any young QB would have been in trouble here this year. 

 

Fans should keep this in mind if we use the second overall pick on a QB.  Howell will benefit from sitting and learning - and waiting until there is a solid OL to play behind.  If he plays well in a few games next year then his trade value will improve.  

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

 

Fans should keep this in mind if we use the second overall pick on a QB.  Howell will benefit from sitting and learning - and waiting until there is a solid OL to play behind.  If he plays well in a few games next year then his trade value will improve.  

Agree to an extent.

 

I think having a coordinator who will actually run the ball will aide the development, even with an equally bad line.

 

Why? Well, because it's less hits and less mental beating on the QB. In film, they grade each and every throw a QB makes in game. Every play, really. Making sure playaction and hand offs and everything is crisp.

 

Now imagine breaking down 60 pass plays instead of, say, 25-30 of them? It's literally double the mental strain. 

 

That's not an excuse. The best overcome that and improve regardless. Sam didn't. That part is on him.

 

We just did him zero favors. 

Edited January 1 by KDawg

[method man]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think Sam's floor is Gardner Minshew.  That was Jay Gruden's among others early impressions.  I think his ceiling is Derek Carr (when Carr was good).  At this point it wouldn't surprise me either way as to hitting that floor or ceiling.

 

I know some here don't care about the height of the QB.  Some do.  I am somewhere in between.  Greg Cosell when was asked about why Howell fell in the draft -- he said he talked to some personnel types and was told Sam's height, which is about 6 foot and a half (not 6 '1), was part of the narrative -- some in the scouting community believe at that height you need to be uber mobile otherwise dudes at that height don't tend to be special with Brees a notable exception.   

 

I've seen Sam up close in camp, he looks small.  I said so at the time.  And yes i do think its a variable as to his ceiling.   Sam has some nice traits IMO but nothing killer.

 

I'd be stunned if they don't take a QB in this draft.  IMO you got 4 clear QBs in the draft with higher ceilings than Sam.

 

i do think Rivera put a monkey wrench in Sam's development.  It's one of many malpractice moves from Ron who ran one of the dumbest and more arrogant off seasons and coaching jobs this season, I've ever seen.  He pulled a Zorn-Spurrier level dumb season for the ages.   

 

He did nothing to upgrade the O line.  It was a stacked draft for TE yet he didn't take a single one.   They run a pass happy offense and put everything on Sam's plate with no running game to complement.  Little play action.   They just threw him to the wolves.  

On the size piece, the height is one factor but he also has arms that are 2 to 3 inches shorter vs other guys in his size range who are succeeding like Mahomes. Jay’s point on Friday was that Brees played tall, getting on his tippy toes if he needed to. Sam plays small

[Jumbo]

@TradeTheBeal!

 

Real talk? O.k.  Posting on football has never been your strong suit. 😁

 

Your QB pontifications in particular have been weak, going back to the immense volume of white noise you generated in your over the top Cousins obsession. That will be your primary legacy on the topic. 😛

 

And every now and then, you're just trolling. 😉

 

You do have a new kindred spirit to share with, though .😄

 

I think there's a lot of superfluous "Sam chatter" occuring, instigated by a few.

 

He shouldn't be such a source of angst for them. He wasn't some fraud or asshole.

 

Nothing wrong with the way most smart, knowledgeable stadium regulars posted on Sam.

 

There was no exaggerated fluffing or lionizing of him like with Heinie. Most takes were pretty accurate and balanced in praise and criticism.

 

Most takes by those same knowledgeable regs were of that same nature when it came to what the team didn't do to help him and did do that impeded development. 

 

Hot take dumbassery and weird ax- grinding is hardly equally worthy content.

 

Remember, ES isn't where we easily settle for the "typical" level of posting common on most such boards. Quality matters here.

 

Sam's obviously not going to be our starter next year, and the vast majority of regs see his inability to transcend the situation whether it's "fair" or he got a decent chance or not.

 

It's been broadly recognized he's made many poor plays at this point. The only arguments left, if one just wants to argue,  is did he merit a shot given our QB situation and where he was drafted to begin with, or just how much the situation held him back. And that's kind of moot now.

 

He's not returning as starter. So all the flak in the air seems a misplaced and gratuitous emphasis---and in a few posts, maybe just trolling.

 

 

[Renegade7]

14 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Yes, why not ? All this mentor talk is vastly overrated imo.

 

It takes a village, man...we've tried so many times, at one point do we jus slow down and focus on saying we did what we could versus a system or what we can live without?

 

I don't expect a veteran backup to be $10m when Brisset is only making $8m...this was touched on by someone else, how much backup QBs make is vastly overrated versus the value they provide when you have a good one.

Edited January 1 by Renegade7

[mac8887]

32 minutes ago, KDawg said:

This isn’t “all you’re saying” though. 
 

You are allowing for zero context as it pertains to Howell’s performance and ignoring all of his good to take shots at him.

 

He has an absurd number of attempts for what was an essential rookie (not anymore) at the beginning of the season. 
 

He had no running game due to our coordinator’s fascination with throwing damn near 60 times a game (to the tune of a 66:33 pass:run ratio) and he had an absolutely horrific offensive line in front of him.

 

To counter @TradeTheBeal!’s point just a touch, I don’t agree that he has been the same QB all year. He hasn’t been. 
 

He has shown similar negatives even in the midst of his decent to good games. Things like holding the ball too long, forcing passes, etc., are all issues that were always there. 
 

But he was able to temper them for a good portion of the season.

 

Then December happened.

 

College seasons are 12-13 games. That’s about the timeframe where Howell fell off a cliff. The hits added up, he got even more nervous than he was prior and he simply multiplied his bad by about 4. 
 

To me, that absolutely adds up to being broken. If you don’t want to think that way, that’s okay, too. But then you’re kind of arguing that Bienemy and Rivera’s coaching didn’t have any kind of effect and Howell had a situation he could have been successful. 
 

He didn’t. 
 

The key to nurturing a young QB is the running game and a (at least) decent offensive line. 
 

We refused to run and our line stunk.

 

Now add the defense completely failing to the mix and you have a situation where your young QB is shouldering a lot of pressure. 
 

It’s not conducive to growth. And I think any young QB would have been in trouble here this year. Stroud looks better here, I think, but he’s have his struggles, too. 

Even if I give you all of what you said here, all that goes to show you is that Sam shouldn't have been starting in the first place. And that's on ron.

 

They had no time to baby step a qb this year. They had to win now. The only way they do that especially with how horrid the d turned out to be, is to put your qb out there, throw it all over the field, and pray he plays good and puts up more points than the other team.

 

There was no way either ron or eb were ever going to go the traditional route by slowly developing Howell over the course off the season, why would they? they knew by doing that they would be losing there jobs anyway.

 

Yes Howell got put in an unbelievably crappy situation, and a lot of this can be blamed on that. But in this league, if your a 5th round qb your lucky to even get the chance to play this many games. So when you get your chance you've gotta grab it by the balls and do it. You've got to make the best of that situation no matter how bad it is, and I'd argue Howell didn't do nearly enough to help his cause, and I'd say he hurt his cause with his play, not factoring in anything else out of his control.

 

It's the late round qbs that take whatever situation they are put in, grab it by the balls, and run with it without ever looking back, they are the only ones that get to keep their jobs. The ones who fail, even if in a bad situation,  most times have to wait years before getting another chance if they do at all.

 

This is a do or don't league and unless your an early 1st rounder or a qb with a ridiculously rich contract, excuses are not going to fly. Even if a lot of the excuses are not your fault.

 

To take it one step further, I truly believe that Howell was a better prospect for developing before this season than he is now. Any good that he did early on carries no weight compared to what he has become now. He made 2 really good throws yesterday, while throwing 2 picks that could've easily been 4 and people are celebrating because even that is leaps and bounds better than what he's shown recently.

 

You were the one who mentioned yesterday that he was making jump throws from a clean pocket for no reason. He has no confidence in his line, which is somewhat understandable, but they gave him time yesterday. But even worse, he has no confidence in himself.

 

Is he ramseyed/broken? Yes. was he at the beginning of the year? No. But was he closer to being ramseyed/broken at the beginning of the year than he was a good nfl qb? I'd say yes and I'd use him falling to the 5th round on draft day to support my claim. Especially since the reasons he collapsed so spectaculary are the same reasons the draft gurus said that he would not be a good qb in this league.

 

 

 

 

[Jumbo]

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Maybe, just maybe the head coach GM with a sad track record and the first time OC that was looked over by half the league actually just stink like their track records say they do.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, method man said:

On the size piece, the height is one factor but he also has arms that are 2 to 3 inches shorter vs other guys in his size range who are succeeding like Mahomes. Jay’s point on Friday was that Brees played tall, getting on his tippy toes if he needed to. Sam plays small

 

OK, that makes sense.  I've seen our Qbs in camp for well over a decade and Sam struck me small so maybe its that -- not just his height but that combination.

[CobraCommander]

Here’s a scenario to think about. Let’s say last year we took Brock Purdy in the fifth and the 49ers selected Sam Howell as Mr irrelevant. What would the outcome be? Would Sam be getting games balls from Kyle? Would Brock be JAG with a second offensive coordinator going on three?  
 

I can say that I believe Sam would be winning games and Brock would be “broken”. 

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, CobraCommander said:

Here’s a scenario to think about. Let’s say last year we took Brock Purdy in the fifth and the 49ers selected Sam Howell as Mr irrelevant. What would the outcome be? Would Sam be getting games balls from Kyle? Would Brock be JAG with a second offensive coordinator going on three?  
 

I can say that I believe Sam would be winning games and Brock would be “broken”. 

Yes. Circumstances and situations matter.

[Llevron]

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Maybe, just maybe the head coach GM with a sad track record and the first time OC that was looked over by half the league actually just stink like their track records say they do.

 

 

 

OR maybe it’s something else convoluted that no one else is thinking about and worth pages and pages of arguments? Discuss. 

[kingdaddy]

Two kids who played today that I'm impressed with: Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy. Both seem like quality, bright, competitive, tough, athletic kids. I didn't know McCarthy had as big as an arm as he's showing today.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

21 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

OR maybe it’s something else convoluted that no one else is thinking about and worth pages and pages of arguments? Discuss. 

I think it’s pretty simple, if Ron was a good coach it would show in results and if EB was a good OC the all22 would be kind to him.

I guess we should feel lucky it was a 5th rounder they failed to develop as opposed to a 1st rounder.

 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

3 hours ago, CobraCommander said:

Here’s a scenario to think about. Let’s say last year we took Brock Purdy in the fifth and the 49ers selected Sam Howell as Mr irrelevant. What would the outcome be? Would Sam be getting games balls from Kyle? Would Brock be JAG with a second offensive coordinator going on three?  
 

I can say that I believe Sam would be winning games and Brock would be “broken”. 

I really don’t like this narrative bc we’ve seen a young QB in Trey Lance fail in SF with the same weapons and coaching. Not even a vet like Garrapalo had them moving the ball like Purdy. I really think people underrate Purdy’s performance just like they used to do Brady during his first few years. It’s not like he’s throwing short passes and just trying to not make mistakes. He’s among the leaders in air yards as well. He’s making really tough throws look routine. So while I think Sam would definitely look better in SF, I don’t think he’d be as good as Purdy and at this point, I think it’s clear Purdy is a vastly superior player. I don’t think he’d have the ‘23 Commanders at 10-11 wins or anything like that but I think we’d be better for sure. I do understand that not everyone feels the same about Purdy though. 

Edited January 2 by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

[CobraCommander]

50 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

I really don’t like this narrative bc we’ve seen a young QB in Trey Lance fail in SF with the same weapons and coaching. Not even a vet like Garrapalo had them moving the ball like Purdy. I really think people underrate Purdy’s performance just like they used to do Brady during his first few years. It’s not like he’s throwing short passes and just trying to not make mistakes. He’s among the leaders in air yards as well. He’s making really tough throws look routine. So while I think Sam would definitely look better in SF, I don’t think he’d be as good as Purdy and at this point, I think it’s clear Purdy is a vastly superior player. I don’t think he’d have the ‘23 Commanders at 10-11 wins or anything like that but I think we’d be better for sure. I do understand that not everyone feels the same about Purdy though. 

Im just proving a point that a player can be broken, and we’re the team to do it. Purdy wouldn’t stand a chance here. Sam Howell could have a lot better season on a stacked 49ers team. 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

9 minutes ago, CobraCommander said:

Im just proving a point that a player can be broken, and we’re the team to do it. Purdy wouldn’t stand a chance here. Sam Howell could have a lot better season on a stacked 49ers team. 

Why wouldn’t he stand a chance? He’s a good QB. I’m sure you would probably say the same thing about CJ Shroud and Houston before the season started. I’m not saying some QBs don’t have to be delicately developed but really good QBs are usually just really good. I think Shroud and Purdy are really good. 

[CobraCommander]

3 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Why wouldn’t he stand a chance? He’s a good QB. I’m sure you would probably say the same thing about CJ Shroud and Houston before the season started. I’m not saying some QBs don’t have to be delicately developed but really good QBs are usually just really good. I think Shroud and Purdy are really good. 

He is a good qb on a good team. I don’t think he’d stand a chance here because our coaches and roster aren’t any good. 
 

One of our “premier” players is hovering around 50% of snaps on their defense and doesn’t have much to show for it. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I’m not a Purdy hater at all but why wouldn’t Purdy stand a chance here?  It’s pretty simple.  

 

Kyle Shanahan >>>>>>>> EB.

Niners Roster >>>>>>> Our roster.

 

[Llevron]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I think it’s pretty simple, if Ron was a good coach it would show in results and if EB was a good OC the all22 would be kind to him.

I guess we should feel lucky it was a 5th rounder they failed to develop as opposed to a 1st rounder.

 

It’s ok they have failed to develop a few of those too actually! 

[redskinss]

1 hour ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Why wouldn’t he stand a chance? He’s a good QB. I’m sure you would probably say the same thing about CJ Shroud and Houston before the season started. I’m not saying some QBs don’t have to be delicately developed but really good QBs are usually just really good. I think Shroud and Purdy are really good. 

It's one of those philosophical debates that can't be won, kind of like who would win in a fight between Tyson and Ali or could the 85 bears dominate today but it's a debate I've always fallen on the side of nurture over nature.

 

I believe if purdy were here and Howell were there the roles would be almost reversed. 

 

Look at how much Shanahan got out of garrapalo and just how horrible he was in Vegas.

Situations matter and purdy fell into the best one imaginable and unfortunately for Howell it was the exact opposite. 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

8 minutes ago, redskinss said:

It's one of those philosophical debates that can't be won, kind of like who would win in a fight between Tyson and Ali or could the 85 bears dominate today but it's a debate I've always fallen on the side of nurture over nature.

 

I believe if purdy were here and Howell were there the roles would be almost reversed. 

 

Look at how much Shanahan got out of garrapalo and just how horrible he was in Vegas.

Situations matter and purdy fell into the best one imaginable and unfortunately for Howell it was the exact opposite. 

Agreed on your philosophical point. 
 

And in general, I agree with your main point but I really think Purdy is a good QB. Maybe he got there faster because of circumstance but his numbers are MVP worthy. That’s has to be beyond the Shanahan system in my mind because we’ve never seen a QB (young or old) run it to this degree outside of RG3. I am not confident that Sam would have them winning the one seed in the NFC right now but that’s just my opinion. Processing and making accurate throws are crucial in that system and Sam struggles with that a lot right now. But again this is just my opinion. For whatever reason, I’ve always been really impressed with Purdy. I never saw it with Lance and Jimmy G drove me insane when I watched him play there. 
 

I will say Pittsburgh is a good example of the overall point. Pickett stinks but bc he plays for Pittsburgh and specifically Tomlin, he’s always going to be winning games in spite of himself. 
 

 

Edited January 2 by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93