The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

Former Football Outsiders guy

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39901279/2024-nfl-draft-quarterback-projections-rankings-stats

 

2024 NFL draft quarterback projections: Stats and more

• 
  Aaron Schatz, ESPN WriterApr 12, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

 

 

 

For the first time since Trevor Lawrence in 2021, there is a consensus No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL draft: USC standout and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Given how correlated quarterback performance is with team wins, the team with the first pick often needs a quarterback. The Chicago Bears have that pick via the Carolina Panthers, but they also had a quarterback (Justin Fields) who finished 23rd out of 30 quarterbacks in Total QBR in 2023. Fields is now in Pittsburgh, and Chicago will more than likely select Williams.

That means the quarterback-needy Washington Commanders and New England Patriots, who are picking second and third overall, are in a position to draft North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels. There is also a potentially generational wide receiver prospect available in Marvin Harrison Jr., but because of the outsized impact a quarterback has on team success (see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs trading now-eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, then winning back-to-back Super Bowls), it is likely that the Commanders and Patriots will both select quarterbacks.In doing so, they will hope they land this year's C.J. Stroud. ESPN Radio's "Unsportsmanlike" host Evan Cohen posted on X that ideally, you should "draft a QB when you want one, so you never need one." The Chiefs with Mahomes and the Green Bay Packers with Jordan Love provide a strong case for Cohen's point. But Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Houston Texans to the AFC South title, so if the quarterback pick is right, it can work out even if it is made out of necessity.

Then there are Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., who could go in the first round to any of the teams after the third pick that might be looking for a change at quarterback, such as the New York Giants (No. 6), Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) and Denver Broncos (No. 12). McCarthy has been mocked as high as No. 4 overall. Finally, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler is a potential Day 2 pick who could end up on a team looking to upgrade its backup quarterback.

With the above background, we present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2024 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Olbrecht and Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, as well as the number of years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability (see Daniels), and while it rewards improvements over time (Daniels again), it penalizes one-year wonders (once again, Daniels).

The quarterbacks below are listed in order of ranking on a consensus big board, and interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward. A value of 0 Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range. Here are our 2024 projections.

Projections for the 2024 class

 

Caleb Williams, USC
Consensus Big Board: 1

MEAN PROJECTION	0.61 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	28.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.8%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	24.1%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	21.2%

Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler's starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.

---

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION	0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.

Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

---

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION	0.34 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.

However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

---

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION	0.20 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	45.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	10.1%

McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

Edited April 12 by Skinsinparadise

[DogofWar1]

 

Nobody.

Knows.

Anything.

 

Not even the people making the pick.

[Warhead36]

I mean yeah if you're picking like 12th its impossible to decide on anyone and you literally can't be decided until maybe the day of and even then, who knows.

 

Chicago has decided on Williams. So has Arizona with Harrison jr. Giants are likely set on Nabors as well if he's available, and if he's not that means McCarthy is. Tennessee will take Alt. Beyond that it gets murky.

[Panninho]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Funny that Keim dedicated the whole post to making it clear that it is nobody’s job to lose, and why—and your immediate takeaway was that it is in fact someone’s job to lose. When he said “don’t overlook something because u have already settled” he’s explaining why they haven’t already settled on anybody, not saying that despite settling on somebody already they don’t want to miss something

You are probably right that I misunderstood the last sentence. Probably was a general remark that you do not settle early and then miss stuff. I read it that they have already settled to some degree and now use these meetings to make sure they aren't overlooking anything. 

[Dah-Dee]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Former Football Outsiders guy

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39901279/2024-nfl-draft-quarterback-projections-rankings-stats

 

2024 NFL draft quarterback projections: Stats and more

• 
  Aaron Schatz, ESPN WriterApr 12, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

Share

 

 

For the first time since Trevor Lawrence in 2021, there is a consensus No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL draft: USC standout and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Given how correlated quarterback performance is with team wins, the team with the first pick often needs a quarterback. The Chicago Bears have that pick via the Carolina Panthers, but they also had a quarterback (Justin Fields) who finished 23rd out of 30 quarterbacks in Total QBR in 2023. Fields is now in Pittsburgh, and Chicago will more than likely select Williams.

That means the quarterback-needy Washington Commanders and New England Patriots, who are picking second and third overall, are in a position to draft North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels. There is also a potentially generational wide receiver prospect available in Marvin Harrison Jr., but because of the outsized impact a quarterback has on team success (see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs trading now-eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, then winning back-to-back Super Bowls), it is likely that the Commanders and Patriots will both select quarterbacks.In doing so, they will hope they land this year's C.J. Stroud. ESPN Radio's "Unsportsmanlike" host Evan Cohen posted on X that ideally, you should "draft a QB when you want one, so you never need one." The Chiefs with Mahomes and the Green Bay Packers with Jordan Love provide a strong case for Cohen's point. But Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Houston Texans to the AFC South title, so if the quarterback pick is right, it can work out even if it is made out of necessity.

Then there are Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., who could go in the first round to any of the teams after the third pick that might be looking for a change at quarterback, such as the New York Giants (No. 6), Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) and Denver Broncos (No. 12). McCarthy has been mocked as high as No. 4 overall. Finally, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler is a potential Day 2 pick who could end up on a team looking to upgrade its backup quarterback.

With the above background, we present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2024 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Olbrecht and Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, as well as the number of years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability (see Daniels), and while it rewards improvements over time (Daniels again), it penalizes one-year wonders (once again, Daniels).

The quarterbacks below are listed in order of ranking on a consensus big board, and interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward. A value of 0 Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range. Here are our 2024 projections.

Projections for the 2024 class

 

Caleb Williams, USC
Consensus Big Board: 1

MEAN PROJECTION	0.61 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	28.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.8%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	24.1%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	21.2%

Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler's starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.

---

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION	0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.

Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

---

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION	0.34 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.

However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

---

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION	0.20 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	45.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	10.1%

McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

 

 

Thanks for this, I love digging through data and especially when those involved provide context, as here:

 

"It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, as well as the number of years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability (see Daniels), and while it rewards improvements over time (Daniels again), it penalizes one-year wonders (once again, Daniels)."

 

Still little surprised the model likes both Daniels *and* McCarthy over Maye in every subset.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Fred Jones]

I am sorry, but I am just not sold on McCarthy.  Back in January three quarterbacks led the way, and I believe those same three quarterbacks will lead the way in the draft.  The last couple of months has hyped JJ despite not playing a game of football.

 

JJ is a backup or at most game manager.  That "he is winner" crap only means he was fortunate enough to play on a well coached and quality football team.

 

Say what you want, but KC does not win as much if they don't also have a good defense.  Taking nothing away from PM, but it is what it is.  Josh Allen would have won more if his defense was better.  If he had a Chris Jones.

 

The clear choice is the same, Maye or Daniels.

[Warhead36]

Lolol if Snyder was still in charge we'd have a contract with Daniels done already and he'd already be doing Eastern Motors ads

[Dah-Dee]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Lolol if Snyder was still in charge we'd have a contract with Daniels done already and he'd already be doing Eastern Motors ads

 

Nah, if it was Snyder we'd be taking Milton at 2 b/c Snyder's son's best friend's third cousin lives in Tennessee.

[skinny21]

Slightly off topic, but I just can’t get out of my head how transformative the VR thing could be to both quarterbacks and to teams evaluation of qbs.  
 

For evaluation purposes, connect the VR to a screen so coaches can see what the qb sees, input their college offense, and then throw in various defensive looks to test their processing/decision-making.   
 

And for qbs, the ability to essentially play full field without needing other players present - how massive is that?  Eventually you can microchip balls and put these guys solo on a practice field.  Better yet, give coaches control to set/redo plays - “try it again but with a bit more touch”, “this time without the heel click”, etc.  

Total game changer IMO, and those are just some off the cuff (relatively) basic uses.  I’m betting this explodes in the next several years.  

[WashingtonRedWolves]

If it was Snyder we would've given up the next 10 years of firsts + #2 + terry for caleb

[Rex Tomb]

3 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Slightly off topic, but I just can’t get out of my head how transformative the VR thing could be to both quarterbacks and to teams evaluation of qbs.  

Is that something we are using?  

[Fred Jones]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

And for qbs, the ability to essentially play full field without needing other players present - how massive is that?  Eventually you can microchip balls and put these guys solo on a practice field.  Better yet, give coaches control to set/redo plays - “try it again but with a bit more touch”, “this time without the heel click”, etc.  

Total game changer IMO, and those are just some off the cuff (relatively) basic uses.  I’m betting this explodes in the next several years.  

I think you still have the same issue of reading NFL defenses.  Learning to quickly process college football is one thing.  Does that translate to the NFL - don't know.

 

And, how many college QB's do this to success?  Not saying it is bad or Daniels didn't get better, but how much impact on moving to the next level does it have?

[Captain James]

11 hours ago, illone said:

14 more sleeps until we can start arguing about starting lineups🤪

It's gonna make my eyes rain.

[SoCalSkins]

56 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Brian Kelly says Daniels is the best leader he has ever had. Very much a leader by example. Take it for what its worth....I guess you would expect him to say that. But here he is saying it. 

 

 

 

Unless Brian Kelly uses his fake Louisiana accent when he says something, it doesn’t count. Thems the rules. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

34 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Going Daniels likely indicates a stronger weighting on short term returns, IMO.

I am not sure I agree with that.  Harris has done nothing to indicate he wants to cut corners for short term success, in fact in just about every public comment he's made, he's said the opposite.  The FA methodology of signing "cheap and available" stop-gap guys to fill out the roster without even one "big splash" FA signing (and no, Bobby Wagner isn't a big splash because it's a 1 year deal for no money), indicates the same.

 

If they pick Daniels, it's because they see him as the most viable long-term answer at QB.  It's basically a formula of 
 

Daniels' Pros - Daniels' Cons > Maye's Pros - Maye's Cons

 

(I don't believe McCarthy is in the mix.  I could be wrong, I'm sure they're going to do diligence, but unless he comes in with peak Joe Montana level command of the offense in his visit, I just don't see him being in the running).

 

They really could feel the risk on Maye is they can't fix the footwork or mechanics and he's going to be inaccurate at the NFL level, and that's going to be a problem they don't want to deal with. That really could be the reason they go Daniels over Maye. 

 

Or they could believe Daniels can operate the offense from the pocket efficiently, and then has the added ability with his legs.  That could be the reason.

 

I don't think short vs. long term is a thing. 

 

Whatever choice they make, they're going to have a reason for it and it's not going to be because it's what Mel Kiper's hair spray tells them to do.  It will be well reasoned with a million justifications and a lot of thought.  Unlike Snyder who just walked to the wall and pointed at a guy because he watched 4 youtube clips.

 

They might be right.  They might be wrong.

 

Any one or all of these guys could bust. Or any could succeed.  

 

 

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listened to Schefter on Standig

 

Both said they talked to a number of people, Schefter said its tracking Daniels based on whom he spoke to but the operative word is "tracking", the haven't decided and it can change and he cited the prodays coming up.

 

Standig said more or less the same and said when asking about the QBs, Maye is the one with the most variance, postive and negative with some worried about bust potential.

I still think all this "tracking" stuff is bologna.  Unless they're getting the "tracking" information directly from Peters, Quinn, Newmark or Harris, there's absolutely no way to know which way it's tracking.

 

I think said differently, they're both talking to a lot of people, and the majority of those people like Daniels more than Maye at the pick, and playing the odds game, the more people who say Daniels makes it more likely they pick Daniels. 

 

I'm fine with that reporting.  But it doesn't actually MEAN anything because Peters, Quinn and Newmark might be solidly on Team Maye, and literally nobody would know that.  The opposite is just as true, they could be sitting on Team Daniels, and nobody would know that either.

 

I DON'T think it's bologna that more people Schefter, Standig or Keim are talking to are saying they like Daniels more than Maye.

 

However, you do have to ask yourself, what's the source and why are they saying it?  If it's a current NFL team coach or scout, there is going to be some agenda. I don't believe teams would just offer information for no reason, even if they're not going to pick somebody, there is an agenda.  There's ALWAYS an agenda when anybody tells Schefter anything. 

 

If it's an agent, it's obvious.  If it's a  former coach (like Dumbass Jay Gruden) or GM then there's a reason they're a former coach/scout/GM, and they probably should be ignored. 

15 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Lolol if Snyder was still in charge we'd have a contract with Daniels done already and he'd already be doing Eastern Motors ads

Where did Dan and Bruce take Griffin for Breakfast down in Texas before he was drafted?  Was it Denny's?  Or Hooters?  I don't remember.  But something like that absolutely happened.  

[Llevron]

8 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Unless Brian Kelly uses his fake Louisiana accent when he says something, it doesn’t count. Thems the rules. 

I knew something was wrong there lol

[Going Commando]

All it will take for McCarthy to be the pick is for Adam Peters to say "this guy is Brock Purdy" after he visits.

 

Just going off of body language from the Prodays, I think it's a safe bet he prefers Daniels or Maye.

[CommanderInTheRye]

Extremeskins members the day after all this crazy draft intrigue and drama is finally resolved…

 

 

 

[Dah-Dee]

30 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

Is that something we are using?  

 

I haven't seen discussion of Washington using VR yet, but several NFL teams (including Dallas, who I think was the first; and the 49ers - so I'd bet Peters is looking into it) started using it in the last couple years. 

 

I agree completely with @skinny21 though, I think we're going to see a wave of this at both the college and pro levels.

Edited April 12 by Dah-Dee

[skinny21]

18 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

Is that something we are using?  

No, it was from the article about Daniels using it (a German team testing/building it in conjunction with Daniels’ usage/feedback).  Or rather, not that I know of.  

18 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

I think you still have the same issue of reading NFL defenses.  Learning to quickly process college football is one thing.  Does that translate to the NFL - don't know.

 

And, how many college QB's do this to success?  Not saying it is bad or Daniels didn't get better, but how much impact on moving to the next level does it have?

I hear you, but I’m talking about imputing pro defenses.  The idea behind inputting their college offense (for evaluation purposes) is just to take that learning variable out.  

I haven’t heard of any other qb (college or otherwise)) using it - at least that company’s development was new/in progress, but that’s all I know.  

 

Obviously I don’t know what the Impact will be, but the potential is there to be completely transformative IMO.  

[DogofWar1]

We should buy an AI model trained for football.  ChatNFL if you will.  Have it control defenses.

 

AIs love to hallicinate so we could probably get a lot of crazy post snap reads that our QB will need to figure out.

[NYSkins21]

27 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Extremeskins members the day after all this crazy draft intrigue and drama is finally resolved…

 

 

 

Concerning that I watch the video to the end?

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Frankly, I’m pretty much with you.  The difficulty I have with truly landing smack dab in alignment with you is (my) lack of information, and the fact that many people who should (at least in theory) have a lot more information than I tout him.  

 

As an example, one of my concerns was his lack (or at least paucity) of middle field throws.  But then I hear Jay Gruden saying the offense didn’t have a lot of middle field throws, and that those are some of the easiest throws to make, so he wasn’t worried about it.  Is Jay right?  I have no clue, but it makes some sense anyway.

 

If I’m taking a Devil’s Advocate stance on the p2s ratio and the low number of throws after breaking the pocket, a few bits of information and some theories/questions play into for me.  With fewer routes to the middle of the field, was this to give Daniels more space to navigate when he ran?  Was he coached to run (as Herm coached him to at ASU)?  Was his low number of pressures in part because defenses didn’t want to risk attacking him (ie played to keep him in the pocket more often)?  Do defenses playing contain effect p2s ratios?  Did his team practice broken plays?  What does the tape say about his improvement on the ps2 ratio this year?  Purely better oline play?  Was a 2nd year in the system a factor?  Did the VR thingy help his play/processing speed?  Just so many things I don’t know.

 

Regarding throwing with anticipation, was this a timing offense (my understanding is no)?  Did the offense face mostly zone (not wanting to turn their backs on Daniels) and that, coupled with talented pass catchers reduced the need to throw with anticipation?  How hard is it to improve in this area?  Doesn’t seem the “experts” are too concerned about this facet, though I can’t recall hearing why exactly.

 

To me, there are 4 major selling points with Daniels - his running, his accuracy at all levels, his ability to go through progressions (this is mainly based on others takes), and his marked improvement in certain areas.  I might throw in his openness to working with the VR and changing his work habits - he seems very willing to be coached and to put in the work.  The big question, for me, is how well can our FO gauge his processing ability.  If they believe he has a big leg up on this facet, I suppose I can see how they might choose to pick him.

 

Personally, the red flags and question marks with Daniels, vs the number of things Maye has going for him (and small number of flags) make Maye the fairly easy choice for me. 

 

 

 

Pretty much, I appreciate the breakdown on potential explanations too. A lot of college's have a weird balance between how much they're doing to develop the guys for the pro's in their process, versus how much they're doing to win games on saturday, and in my experience, the throw with anticipation piece isn't getting better. Warhead's point is really important btw. This is one of the oldest elite QB's to come out the past decade. High end QB's do not go into the draft at age 24, virtually ever anymore. It's exceptionally rare. You enter the draft your age 21/22 season, period. Every once in a while there's a 24 year old. Part of this is covid wrecking '20, but part of this is also just the stories of the players themselves. Penix wasn't good enough and was too injured to come out earlier, Daniels wasn't good enough to make it worth it, JJ, Maye and Caleb all are good enough. Sometimes being young doesn't matter, Darnold was great and young in '16, less great and less young in '17, and then busted, is that gonna be Maye? I don't know, but I do know that I strongly value guys that do it from the jump and are so good they can declare and get top 10 draft capital at age 20-22 far more than guys that spent half a decade playing college ball before their draft stock rose high enough to pull a Pickett. This isn't the 1960's, 1970s and 1980s, these guys aren't sticking around for 3-4 years every single class, and in fact other than Weeden, I struggle to remember any QB who was 24 and over that anyone anywhere liked the past 12 years. Its hugely alarming. 

 

I do not understand for the life of me why the league doesn't care, but as I mentioned earlier, when I've noted the league ignoring very obvious concerns in prior draft classes, we've tended to get Pickett's and Zach Wilson's and Trey Lance's out of said process. Guys like Ponder, and EJ Manuel? Any other fellow FSU fan around here can probably underline that when those guys came out last decade, there wasn't anyone I knew anywhere that thought they'd ever even stick for a starter for beyond. There are guys that send out those alarms. The NFL just sometimes has no clue, or just gets enamored. I think its totally possible Daniels goes out there, and he's just a big play machine, some cross between Vick, Lamar, and former WR Tannehill. Who knows, it could happen. Its hard to imagine them this in love, and totally wrong. It's not like Lance and Trubisky where there aren't a lot of starts in his bag. He's had a long productive career. Its not hard for me to imagine he becomes solid or good. I'm not scared in the same way I'd have been with Wilson or Ponder or Manuel or even Pickett where I literally could not see a way period, where they'd be anything other than bust. But, I also just don't see any way in which he should be rated ahead of Maye, or even some of the other guys in the class. There are too many signature alarm bells in his profile to justify a top 2 pick. Its crazy. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 minute ago, NYSkins21 said:

Concerning that I watch the video to the end?

 

 

Not at all.

 

It's like the perfect zen moment, horses at one with the world, contemplating their navels amidst the constant farts. lol