The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

Elite QB's can play well behind bad offensive lines but even with an elite QB, their play will have a high variability if they are playing behind a bad line.  Due to injuries in 2020, the Chiefs had a bad O-Line by the time of playoffs. Mahomes got them to the Superbowl, but then they only scored 9 points or something like that in the Superbowl.  The next year, the Bengals had a below average line and made the Superbowl.  They went 10-7 and the offensive was very up and down.  Burrow got hot during the playoffs and Mahomes had one of his worst playoffs game ever in the AFC Championship game.

 

Sam Howell is not elite right now and may never be in teh same range as Mahomes or Burrow. I do think improving the O-Line would help him.  Unlike other posters, I don't think our O-Line is terrible--it is below average.  From listening the PFF podcasts over the last 5 years it has been ingrained in my head that sacks are largely a QB stat (obviously not entirely) and I do think that a lot of the sack issues fall on Howell.   That said I think the sack issues would be a lot more manageable if we had a good O-Line.

Thanks for adding more nuance to it. I used to have the data to back up the arguments but with the sites pay only these days, I can't access the old OL data that I used to use when this would crop up. I think, fuzzy memory and all, the Saints who won the super bowl 13 or so years ago were another example and I can recall distinctly that a chunk of the elite contenders from that 2004-2014 or 2015 era also fit that (I think I was ****ing about this back when we took Scherff instead of my preferred Leonard Williams-I was fine with an OT but not a Guard or Center that high). There are numerous examples of teams this century that consistently contended or made deep runs with average or worse OL's. It is fair to say that its exceptionally rare that a team can do it with an OL as horrific as ours, but even that has happened, but it required HOF talent at QB at bare minimum. The rule of thumb seems to be at least solid OL play is necessary and if you combine solid or better with an elite QB, beautiful things can happen, but the QB needs to be a part of the ingredients. 

[wit33]

It’s interesting to note that Howell is receiving the same excuses that fans and media typically give to first-round QBs who often don’t live up to expectations and waste years starting. Wonder if new FO will feel similarly. 
 

Thankfully for Howell, he has amassed a significant amount of production to back up his case. 

 

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Evans is awesome but wonder if he'd come here at his stage of his career I assume he wants to win.  I think we can but its a tougher sell coming off of lets say a 4-13 season.

I don't want to pay for a player's decline. You don't know when they hit that number but they hit that number typically before Evans current age, and very soon after his current age. Do not make that bet. Pittman would be awesome but I struggle to imagine the Colts not bringing back Richardson's best WR. 

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Pittman was an old draft crush of mine, if I recall ditto you.  Actually Terry was a draft crush, too for me back then.  So it would be an all timer for me.  

 

The Eagles couldn't handle SF with all of their weapons.  That team doesn't stop loading their team -- they have Kittle, Deebo, yet draft Aiyuk, trade for McCaffrey.  They have all those rock stars who major in YAC.   

 

I recall watching various LSU players one draft season but couldn't keepo my eyes off of Ja'marr Chase.  He was every bit his hype, he was unstoppable and couldn't be stopped.  And that was a year before he came out.  Same experience watching Ohio State, yet couldn't keep my eyes off of Marvin Harrison -- sick talent, even sicker than Jamar.

 

If we are going to compete with the big boys we want IMO at least a player or two that teams have to game plan mightly to stop.  According to the Dolphins at least we don't have a single player like that.  It's a dynamic that must change IMO if we want a trophy.   

Good for you guys. I could not figure him out, I hit on a lot of guys that year, but missed big on some (Shenault and Mims probably the most painful misses). I got the Lamb/Jeudy debate right, liked Higgins, nervously, but with Pittman and Aiyuk, I didn't know what to think and usually missed out on both in dynasty (I have 2 shares of Aiyuk, and 1 of Pittman on my 13/14 dynasty teams. I do not want to say how many at one time carried Mims and Shenault lol. Thank God I had a ton of Lamb and a decent amount of Higgins. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

This is what people are missing when they try to connect the dots to GM’s they think Harris (and Shen) already has a line to as if the decision is already being made. I think Harris is going to cast a wide net and get input from multiple coveted candidates. What assistant evaluators they’d want to bring along, how they see the roster, how they’d move forward with it, what HC candidates (and other staff) they are connected to and interested in working with, their philosophy for FA with a ton of cap room, their philosophy for the draft in general but also in relation to this roster and organizational rebuild. 
 

There’s a ton to be gained from interviewing at least 5-6 of the NFL’s smartest, most coveted GM candidates rather than having “the guy” in mind based on preexisting relationships. I look forward to watching it all play out.

 

Yep and if Harris does this to his reputation and that is interview some of the best minds in the business about roster bulding and talent evaluation, he should get some killer insights about this roster and thoughts as to where to go from here.

 

Dan I presume would never get anything close to that level of intelligence about his roster when interviewing FO duds like Bruce and Ron, etc.  Not that Dan would even care much anyone because he always thought he knew best.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

What cherry picked examples do you not agree with that I gave?

I totally quoted the wrong post :(. My apologies

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

That is the operative question no doubt.  And if I am Josh Harris, I am depending on of course the GM to make his best guess on this question.  One cool advantage he will have is you can ask this question to a number of top name potential GMs interviewing for the spot.  No way I'd guess they are interviewing for this job without putting some serious time and study into this very question.

For now, unless I could move up for Maye or Williams with a godfather offer (preferably Williams), I'd probably sit tight and take Fashanu or Harrison Jr, I'd then trade down with another one of my picks for a lower day 2 pick and a day 2 pick in '25, I'd use a pick on the best OL available, probably in round 2, and best available guys in round 3. 

 

Interesting side note on one of the podcasts I listened to this morning was on Detroits thought process on TE, basically that they learned a lesson with Hockenson a few years ago, and had no intention of using a high first on a TE when their value vs FA cost is not a good match when you consider say drafting WR's in round 1 vs trying to sign one in FA (cost prohibitive). The argument being, Round 1 is for WR's because it just makes cap sense, and then they forego TE in round 1 this time, grabbing mega stud LaPorta in round 2, a HUGE discount over round 1 cost, and over resigning Hockenson. Instead, they get value via the trade and a cheaper and better player in LaPorta. That's a best case scenario, but you can see how they use asset allocation with draft capital and salary cap #'s via FA, to inform positional cohort selections in round 1. Pretty interesting. But then they take a RB and LB in round 1, which violates the same principles? Its very odd. The results are the results though, so there's that, but process over the long term will reward you more, if you have the right people making the decisions. 

[MartinC]

15 minutes ago, wit33 said:

It’s interesting to note that Howell is receiving the same excuses that fans and media typically give to first-round QBs who often don’t live up to expectations and waste years starting. Wonder if new FO will feel similarly. 
 

Thankfully for Howell, he has amassed a significant amount of production to back up his case. 

 

I would argue that Howell HAS lived up to (reasonable) expectations for a 1st round QB. No one is buying him a gold jacket, or booking tickets to wherever the Pro Bowl is taking place - but with the production he's had, multi TD games, shown play making ability, toughness and durability. Made mistakes, taken sacks, thrown pick sixes. 

 

But if we'd picked him with a first round pick I think we'd be encouraged by his production and progress - speed bumps and bad games included. How a new GM and coaching staff see him will be fascinating. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

30 minutes ago, wit33 said:

It’s interesting to note that Howell is receiving the same excuses that fans and media typically give to first-round QBs who often don’t live up to expectations and waste years starting. Wonder if new FO will feel similarly. 
 

Thankfully for Howell, he has amassed a significant amount of production to back up his case. 

 

If week by week, we were flooded by screen shots and cut-ups of Howell clearly missing on positive opportunities, most would be singing a different tune.  The offensive tape primarily offers indictments on the playcalling, and lack of OL talent/coaching.

[YouLikeThat]

Former scouts are saying something different and I see the same thing.

 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/scouts_view_is_sam_howell_the_answer_at_qb_for_commanders/s1_13132_39612437

[rumplestilskin]

4 minutes ago, YouLikeThat said:

Former scouts are saying something different and I see the same thing.

 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/scouts_view_is_sam_howell_the_answer_at_qb_for_commanders/s1_13132_39612437

Probably a former scout for a reason.

[Inigo Montoya]

8 minutes ago, YouLikeThat said:

Former scouts are saying something different and I see the same thing.

 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/scouts_view_is_sam_howell_the_answer_at_qb_for_commanders/s1_13132_39612437

 

This is actually a really good article and makes a ton of sense. I still think rolling with Howell next year makes sense, but they have to do their diligence on the top 3 QBs based on where we are picking and the likelihood that we will be picking in this range again without having to blow through draft capitol in a trade up. 

[rumplestilskin]

14 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If week by week, we were flooded by screen shots and cut-ups of Howell clearly missing on positive opportunities, most would be singing a different tune.  The offensive tape primarily offers indictments on the playcalling, and lack of OL talent/coaching.

Agree. Further, I believe that there have been many potential star QB's faulter and have their careers ruined by bad coaching and/or protection. Sam seems to handle it well but we dont want a Patrick Ramsey on our hands. He is a tough SOB. The whole team has quit so its pretty tough to judge anyone right now.

[method man]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

I don't want to pay for a player's decline. You don't know when they hit that number but they hit that number typically before Evans current age, and very soon after his current age. Do not make that bet. Pittman would be awesome but I struggle to imagine the Colts not bringing back Richardson's best WR. 

Good for you guys. I could not figure him out, I hit on a lot of guys that year, but missed big on some (Shenault and Mims probably the most painful misses). I got the Lamb/Jeudy debate right, liked Higgins, nervously, but with Pittman and Aiyuk, I didn't know what to think and usually missed out on both in dynasty (I have 2 shares of Aiyuk, and 1 of Pittman on my 13/14 dynasty teams. I do not want to say how many at one time carried Mims and Shenault lol. Thank God I had a ton of Lamb and a decent amount of Higgins. 

 

There is data science you can use these days to build models to figure out how who is going to sustain productivity into their early 30s and who will have a dropoff. There is an argument to be had that Mike's body type and great health through his career will help him sustain productivity for at least a couple more years. Feels like half the games he's missed in recent years have been due to suspensions from getting in scuffles with Marshon Lattimore

Edited December 6, 2023 by method man

[theTruthTeller]

3 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

This is actually a really good article and makes a ton of sense. I still think rolling with Howell next year makes sense, but they have to do their diligence on the top 3 QBs based on where we are picking and the likelihood that we will be picking in this range again without having to blow through draft capitol in a trade up. 

I thought the article has some good insights, but I don't know how anyone can predict how SH would perform with a decent OL given the state of the present OL.  And I don't see any point in wasting a 1st round choice on a QB and letting him be the next one to get crushed.  Build the line to be decent, hope SH survives long enough to be fairly evaluated, then make a move on a QB if necessary.  Unfortunately, building a decent line will take 2-3 years, but the time to start is now.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

For now, unless I could move up for Maye or Williams with a godfather offer (preferably Williams), I'd probably sit tight and take Fashanu or Harrison Jr, I'd then trade down with another one of my picks for a lower day 2 pick and a day 2 pick in '25, I'd use a pick on the best OL available, probably in round 2, and best available guys in round 3. 

 

Interesting side note on one of the podcasts I listened to this morning was on Detroits thought process on TE, basically that they learned a lesson with Hockenson a few years ago, and had no intention of using a high first on a TE when their value vs FA cost is not a good match when you consider say drafting WR's in round 1 vs trying to sign one in FA (cost prohibitive). The argument being, Round 1 is for WR's because it just makes cap sense, and then they forego TE in round 1 this time, grabbing mega stud LaPorta in round 2, a HUGE discount over round 1 cost, and over resigning Hockenson. Instead, they get value via the trade and a cheaper and better player in LaPorta. That's a best case scenario, but you can see how they use asset allocation with draft capital and salary cap #'s via FA, to inform positional cohort selections in round 1. Pretty interesting. But then they take a RB and LB in round 1, which violates the same principles? Its very odd. The results are the results though, so there's that, but process over the long term will reward you more, if you have the right people making the decisions. 

 

To me easy for the Lions to say that in an unusually stacked draft for TE.  I loved Laporta.  Some of us listed our top 15-20 favorite players in the last draft before draft day, Laporta was on it for me. 

 

This draft in comparison feels "meh" at TE.  Sanders who most consider is the 2nd best TE in this draft IMO would be overdrafted in the 2nd round even though he shows up there in mocks.  He strikes me a clear peg, maybe two below Laporta.  Also as much as I dig Laporta, Bowers IMO is an even better prospect and has earned his hype.

 

As for what they should do in the draft.  Too early for me to give an answer aside from Harrison is a no brainer to me.  It's not a tough call, not even a little if he's there at their pick.

 

I like Fashanu and Alt more than some do on our draft thread so I wouldn't hate either pick.

 

I like some of the O lineman in that next tier so i am good with trading down, too.

 

QB isn't off the table for me either.

 

I think the trade up for Caleb or Drake talk is pure fantasy unless somehow the Cardinals get one of those picks and maybe they trade the pick away though I suspect they wouldn't.  It's like talking to my friends in my younger days (90s) at a bar, saying how about I ask that girl to dance -- a girl that comes off realistic.  And my friends go interesting choice but lets talk about going to the city and ask Cindy Crawford out, what do you think about that?    What do you think of Cindy?  And then we discuss it over a few drinks.  Now maybe its not that level crazy but its in that range IMO.  Teams don't typically trade away picks that land them marquee QB prospects.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

I love Sam Howell and IF he were a 1st round pick and we know this was his first full year, he performed well.  I will say this after watching more and more tape of Jayden Daniels, Sam can't hold a candle to Jayden!  

 

 

 

 

[Rex Tomb]

1 hour ago, theTruthTeller said:

I thought the article has some good insights, but I don't know how anyone can predict how SH would perform with a decent OL given the state of the present OL.  And I don't see any point in wasting a 1st round choice on a QB and letting him be the next one to get crushed.  Build the line to be decent, hope SH survives long enough to be fairly evaluated, then make a move on a QB if necessary.  Unfortunately, building a decent line will take 2-3 years, but the time to start is now.

This is where I am.  Howell with some protection would have to be better than the s-show we see from the offensive line week in and week out.  If he’s not, then at least we started the process of rebuilding the line into a strength for us. It’s been garbage since Rivera got here and abruptly traded Trent Williams for peanuts.

[Stone Cold]

Huge Sam supporter here.  Been known to call him Sammy Franchise.  I believe with him and his contract, we can attack the other many positions of need.  I love playmakers in the 1st rd.  If we can get Harrison or bowers then attack ol id be happy.  Bottom line…we have Sam for a cheap 2 more years….build around him and see what happens.  If it doesn’t work out after 2 seasons, we move on with a budding nucleus a la sf

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If week by week, we were flooded by screen shots and cut-ups of Howell clearly missing on positive opportunities, most would be singing a different tune.  The offensive tape primarily offers indictments on the playcalling, and lack of OL talent/coaching.

I don't think we've coached Howell to his strengths which there are likely many reasons for. EB trying to install an offense and finding out about Sam in his offense makes some sense. The next OC will have his own ideas on how to use Sam to his strengths, like using his legs more to get out of harms way and avoid the sacks. He'll also get a player with a great deal of experience and more confidence in his 2nd year. Based on what I've seen across the league with other QB's I think we have a potential good one in Howell as long as we surround him with talent and protect him/coach him up.

[TheItalianStallion]

Howell bails a bit too early at times; I'd rather he stand in there for a moment longer and deliver an on-script throw from the pocket more frequently rather than start scrambling, which has often happened right at moments when one of his targets actually came open on-script. He's also a hair slow on his reads at times. I hope to god that he can improve upon those things between now and the end of the season so that we'll have a better idea of what to do come draft time.

 

That said, those things would all be easier for him if he had a better OL in front of him. If the FO has doubts about what to do, I say err on the side of spending our draft capital on OL rather than QB.

[Skinsinparadise]

If we pick #3 or #4 its going to be an interesting debate.  If we are picking after, I suspect Daniels won't be in play.  Daniels is also a reason why I think its 50-50 that Harrison actually will be avaliable at #4.

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 hours ago, theTruthTeller said:

I thought the article has some good insights, but I don't know how anyone can predict how SH would perform with a decent OL given the state of the present OL.  And I don't see any point in wasting a 1st round choice on a QB and letting him be the next one to get crushed.  Build the line to be decent, hope SH survives long enough to be fairly evaluated, then make a move on a QB if necessary.  Unfortunately, building a decent line will take 2-3 years, but the time to start is now.

 

A smart GM, hopefully could figure out whether Sam has the tools or another Qb from college has higher upside.  There is a lot of tape on Sam from college and this season. Part of that is judging a player under non ideal situations. 

 

It's not our paygrade/expertise to figure this out.  I agree its complicated.  It should be less complicated for hopefully one of the best scouting minds in the game which I suspect we will have coupled with a ton of opinions from other smart dudes applying for his job. 

 

If i am Harris, the question is simple.  Do I want to contribute to another bad decision in the clown show history of this franchise for the last three decades at QB.  And there is a clear clown show move here that might not seem so in real time but will likely reveal itself later. 

 

A.  Is Sam Howell the goods

B.  Is he not the goods and is just OK

C. Is there a clear franchise QB that we are skipping over in the draft or maybe there isn't.

 

We've done C enough during the last three decades.  It never feels jarring when we do it in real time but it becomes jarring-depressing later.   I want my GM to make this call now.  I know there are no guarantees but give it their best shot.  I don't want to hear later for example, oops yeah some of that Daniels hype that he's the next Lamar Jackson was justfied.  We saw some of that.  But we still weren't sure about Sam so our tact was to sort that out.  We felt it was the safer way to do this.

 

For me, screw that.  I am not looking for a conservative move here.  I want the GM to make the call.  And that goes both ways.  If the GM is like look trust me Sam has elite potential and here's why.  I am not so sure about these college QBs.  But my gut is we'd be fools to not run this with Sam.  That's cool, too.  

 

I want the GM to take a bold stance either way.  And if he's wrong, that gets haned on him.  there is no pass for me on this.  If we are picking top 5 in a draft that's considered unsually rich at QB, they need to make a decision IMO versus punting on it.

 

I want him to pick a lane and not take any easy out.  Too big of a call IMO to not dive in hard.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[philibusters]

To me there are only really three QB's I would consider drafting at this point (I am not that well informed so all this is subject to change

1.  Caleb Williams (who realistically won't be an option)

2.  Drake Maye (who realistically won't be an option)

3.  Jayden Daniels (who there is at least some realistic possibility we could pick at our spot)

[skinsfan66]

That's it, we are never going to win if we do not have the right man calling the shot's. Harris and company need to make the right choice, they need to do their homework, just like who they hire needs to do his to make the right choice. They are raising prices, it's put up or shut up time for them very soon. We can speculate on what QB, what ex scout says or what scout's, media want us to do but...... Dan sucked, it's their turn. Jack K. picked Bobby B. left him alone like they should, make your pick and get out of the way.  But it is fun to speculate and debate what is going to happen. We need a break t's been 25 years of just crap ownership. 

[DJHJR86]

15 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If week by week, we were flooded by screen shots and cut-ups of Howell clearly missing on positive opportunities, most would be singing a different tune.  The offensive tape primarily offers indictments on the playcalling, and lack of OL talent/coaching.

 

I think the latest pick six was on play calling/scheme, because the Dolphins LB basically said he saw Wylie move to pass protect a screen instantly and knew where the ball was going to be.  I wonder how many of his turnovers are on the scheme and compared to bad decisions/throws by Howell.