The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Malapropismic Depository]

Nate Burleson says, "What missing link ?"

His words, "It's about time we start talking about Taylor Heinicke as the permanent starter !"

(Nate Burleson was a very good professional ball-catcher, who caught many balls from good professional ball-throwers, so he knows a lot about professional ball-throwers)

Edited November 26, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Thinking Skins]

4 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

I believe this largely depends on how anyone view the "long term stuff". If it's 10 years, obvious answer is Heinicke is probably not that guy. But can he do 1 or 2 more season like he's been playing lately?

I would think that if he ends the year like he played against CAR or TB, I can easily that. Not a world beater, but he's commanding the Offense and his teammates are ready to die for him on  the field, Which is priceless if you're a HC to me.

Adapt the Offense to what he's comfortable with, and ride with it.

I think the other thing that's being ignored in all of this is that Turner may be (or wants to be) a head coach soon, Ron is probably on a 5 year deal, and it takes time for a young QB to actually look good. I remember drafting Rg3 and Sheehan and Galdi we're both saying that they expected us to be 4-12 or 5-11 because of the rookie QB and Ronnie mistakes but at least we had a QB to fix things sound (before the season). It's a total crap shoot how long it'll take for these guys to put it all together. So will Ron be drafting a QB for his replacement? And that's not saying that Ron will be fired but if we draft a QB in year 3 and that QB sucks for 2 years, Ron could easily not be renewed by Dan and they just start over (again). Or Ron could pull a a Gibbs and quit. That'd be eerily similar to how Gibbs left Campbell to grow under the next coach after Campbell didn't look great in his first few years.

 

What we may have now is a good QB that they can win games with. People have their favorite comps but I like Brad Johnson who played under Norv, threw for 4000 yards, 24 and 13 and had the offense finally looking good. Then got replaced and down the franchise went. Heinicke had similar numbers and it's on pace for almost this exact stat line. Some of the same things that were said about Brad are being said about Heinicke. But Brad was a big guy who didn't really have to answer to the height and arm questions. But the whole best as a backup was certainly part of why he was replaced. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

I kinda disagree with this. Yeah, they've known each other but Taylor hasn't been playing. Heck, he hasn't even been getting reps in practice. So I do think they're growing. Heck I think Taylor is growing with what he likes and doesn't like sand is comfortable with. One thing I've been focused on is that I think him getting here and his previous experience had been in broken plays and making something happen. I think that's why Fitz looked better in the offseason. But now that he's getting first team reps over and over, it is slowing down and he is seeing patterns. That means that he's more comfortable making decisions quicker and within the play itself. 

 

 

Having seen some of those practices, IMO the reason why Fitz looked better than Heinicke was simply accuracy and decision making.  It looks like i am an outlier on the board with this thought which I think the biggest difference in Heinicke pre and post bye week has been decision making -- he's not throwing picks.  It's made a ton of difference.  He's looked sharper on other counts too but to me the picks-decision making to my eyes is the main plotline.

 

As for Turner learning Heinicke this season.  Ok to each their own on that.  Yes to an extent you keep learning about EVERY player as you go.  But these dudes have been together at three clubs.  He scouted him coming out of college on and on. 

 

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

This is why I'm so optimistic about him having his best games after a slump. Because just when people (myself included) were saying that he might have reached his ceiling against Atlanta and just be a backup, he does what he did against Carolina and Tampa. So he adapted. Against the leagues best defenses. 

 

 

I am not a short sample kind of guy for a QB.  Good or bad.  We've debated this with other QBs.

 

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

I don't know how high his ceiling is but just like I didn't like calling Allen just a backup I don't like it for Taylor. I'm still of the opinion that is he can take this team to the playoffs, it should be his team going into next year. He'd have earned it. Doesn't mean you don't draft somebody else, or even a first rounder, but he is showing at minimum that he belongs in the league. And it's better than maybe half of the QBs starting right now.

 

Apparently so as to the playoffs since you posted that you are ready to judge him based on how he performs in the playoffs.  

 

Your point here is really my main plot line.  Draft a QB and lets say that QB burns it up in preseason and overtakes the veteran ala what Dak did years back -- then start the rookie.  If Heinicke looks sharper then start Heinicke.  I agree he can play in this league. 

3 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

I don't think Turner has gotten enough credit for this task and others.

I could see him getting a HC job as early as next season.

I hope we have someone lined up who can call plays next year, and wonder who that could be.

 

I think the one thing that might work against Scott as a HC is his personality reminds me some of his dad.  Smart-nerdy but not really a leader-HC type perhaps but who knows?

Edited November 26, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[London Kev]

The discussions about Heinicke's arm strength got me thinking: with all the different measurements and stats regarding players' size, speed, strength, explosiveness, etc, it's surprising they don't have one for QBs release time and throw velocity.

 

I've seen commentators sometimes compare release times during a game, and even show some graphics to illustrate it, but I've never seen it (or velocity) as an official stat or measurement. Surely it wouldn't be that difficult to measure?

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, London Kev said:

The discussions about Heinicke's arm strength got me thinking: with all the different measurements and stats regarding players' size, speed, strength, explosiveness, etc, it's surprising they don't have one for QBs release time and throw velocity.

 

I've seen commentators sometimes compare release times during a game, and even show some graphics to illustrate it, but I've never seen it (or velocity) as an official stat or measurement. Surely it wouldn't be that difficult to measure?

 

There are some that try to do it like Player Profile which does it for draft prospects but yeah there isn't an outfit that I believe majors in it.

 

From my experience, the best way is to see these guys throw live.  To me its much less of a mystery when you can see it up close.  So if at the stadium that would mean watching it somewhere from the lower bowl.

 

I recall the WP once wrote an article about how Colt McCoy's arm strength improved.  I saw him that summer in camp and it wasn't hard to tell it was totally BS.

 

As for Heinicke, I watched him throw a lot in camp.   I am about to watch him for the first time since (as far as live) for the Vegas game.  I'll give it my best guess watching him whether his arm looks better from the summer.  I know some here are contendiing his arm looks stronger post bye week.  I am a bit skeptical about that.  But I'll reserve judgment until after seeing the Raiders game.

 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Malapropismic Depository]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think the one thing that might work against Scott as a HC is his personality reminds me some of his dad.  Smart-nerdy but not really a leader-HC type perhaps but who knows?

 

 

I agree, and another reason I think it would be a bad idea if he left - it might be a but of a waste for him and the other party.

Strikes me also as a great coordinator, but not HC material. So he needs to stay.

 

[zCommander]

24 minutes ago, London Kev said:

The discussions about Heinicke's arm strength got me thinking: with all the different measurements and stats regarding players' size, speed, strength, explosiveness, etc, it's surprising they don't have one for QBs release time and throw velocity.

 

I've seen commentators sometimes compare release times during a game, and even show some graphics to illustrate it, but I've never seen it (or velocity) as an official stat or measurement. Surely it wouldn't be that difficult to measure?

 

They would need to install a device in every stadium that can actually measure trajectory and velocity of the ball. Since this is not going to happen on the field it can only be done in a lab instead. 

 

 

[London Kev]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

There are some that try to do it like Player Profile which does it for draft prospects but yeah there isn't an outfit that I believe majors in it.

 

From my experience, the best way is to see these guys throw live.  To me its much less of a mystery when you can see it up close.  So at the stadium that would mean being somewhere in the lower bowl.

 

I recall the WP once wrote an article about how Colt McCoy's arm strength.  I saw him that summer in camp and it wasn't hard to tell it was totally BS.

 

As for Heinicke, I watched him throw a lot in camp.   I am about to watch him for the first time since (as far as live) for the Vegas game.  I'll give it my best guess watching him whether his arm looks better from the summer.  I know some here are contendiing his arm looks stronger post bye week.  I am a bit skeptical about that.  But I'll reserve judgment until after seeing the Raiders game.

 

 

 

 

I'm with you on this, I don't think Heinicke's arm has got stronger since the bye, it's more like he's throwing with a bit more anticipation and so the ball is getting there quicker.

Ron talked about TH trying to be too perfect with his throws and waiting just a bit to long for just the right window. Maybe it's taken him half a season to figure it out, or maybe he just needed a rest as Kool advocated?

[London Kev]

7 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

They would need to install a device in every stadium that can actually measure trajectory and velocity of the ball. Since this is not going to happen on the field it can only be done in a lab instead. 

 

 

Thanks for posting the vid, interesting stuff.

 

I wasn't really talking about taking measurements in an actual game setting, I meant more like during the combine or pro days, so that each QB would have official stats to show their arm strength.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, London Kev said:

 

I'm with you on this, I don't think Heinicke's arm has got stronger since the bye, it's more like he's throwing with a bit more anticipation and so the ball is getting there quicker.

Ron talked about TH trying to be too perfect with his throws and waiting just a bit to long for just the right window. Maybe it's taken him half a season to figure it out, or maybe he just needed a rest as Kool advocated?

 

I think it depends on how you define it.   Rivera seemed to suggest that Heinicke has been coached up recently to put less touch on some of his throws.  If so, that alone, would make his throws have more speed-velocity.  My point is I don't think its easy to change your arm strength -- especially if we are talking about doing it fast.  I saw him throw in the summer when he had almost no mileage on his arm and at that juncture his arm velocity was noticeably weak.  So I am not so sure I think the 2 weeks of resting made a difference.

 

But I do buy that the bye week helped him.   His decision making looks better.  He looks more confident.   Logan Paulsen was just talking on air about how he could see the run game has been seriously altered post bye week and he said he could tell they did a really nice job of self scouting in the bye week.   Rivera's teams typically do better in the 2nd half of the season -- so I wonder if bye week self scouting has something to do with progress across the board?

 

[ThomasRoane]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If I am going full scouting on him in my own amateurish way:

 

Pro

Ability to escape pressure in the pocket -- elite level

Quick release

Clutch-gamer

High intangibles -- leadership, emotion, work ethic

Off platform throws

Can get hot

Self conscious -- I don't think he's as high on himself as some of the people here are on him judging by his own comments -- but I see that as a positive trait.  I don't like a player who is too arrogant or who has their head in the clouds.  

 

 

Con

Arm strength is below average

Accuracy can come and get --inconsistent

Throws off his back foot a bit too much, hence the high throws

Presses when behind and can make bad decisions

Can hold on to the ball too long

 

i am not ready to crown him.  I am not ready to say he's not the answer.  I lean towards the later but on that point I think he can be at least decent as a starter as they look for the long term solution. 

 

 

Yeah, that pretty much covers it SIP.  Nailed it.   

 

On the con's, only arm strength has a ceiling.  Although, we did see Drew Brees get stronger.  Or was he just insanely accurate and pretty much always on time?  Hard to say.  Drew could certainly spin it.  Drew also had a coach who believed in him.  Heinicke probably only has Turner right now.  If he wins Rivera over, will arm strength become less of a factor?  It's certainly possible. 

 

Comfort in the scheme, better throwing platform (better feet), quicker decision making, etc.  All those can help offset the problem.  I'd say now that the only throw I'd be uncomfortable with him throwing is the deep out.  That 15 - 20 yard bench route.  However, I feel very good with him throwing an out route that breaks around the 12 yard mark.  If a QB can pick up a 3rd and 10 - 12 yarder then, taking everything else into consideration (intangibles), you can win it all with that guy; if he's surrounded by above average talent on offense and defense.  Which is what Rivera is shooting for based on his comments.  

 

Man it would be nice for Heinicke to get his buddy Logan Thomas back!  And Curtis Samuels.  I would really like to see what Heinicke could do with all his weapons and with a healthy Gibson who overcomes his ball security issues.  Getting Cosmi healthy couldn't hurt either.  It would really be nice to see DC drawing the third best corner.  He's a player who really ascending and Taylor has a lot of confidence in him; obviously.  Carter could be as deadly as a healthy Antonio Brown is for Tampa.  Milne and Bates are growing on me as well.  Neither are super athletes but you can tell they're both football players.  Love the game and will do whatever is asked.  Of course, not forgetting Hump either.  His option routes are nasty.  Does a really good job of keeping defenders guessing.  

[ThomasRoane]

36 minutes ago, London Kev said:

 

I'm with you on this, I don't think Heinicke's arm has got stronger since the bye, it's more like he's throwing with a bit more anticipation and so the ball is getting there quicker.

Ron talked about TH trying to be too perfect with his throws and waiting just a bit to long for just the right window. Maybe it's taken him half a season to figure it out, or maybe he just needed a rest as Kool advocated?

 

Probably less to do with rest and a lot more to do with Heinicke, Zampese, and Turner doing some self-scouting.   On game week, all your time is spent studying your opponent and getting comfortable with the game plan.  When I coached, if we had a bye week, or a team I knew we would stomp, I'd get back to fundamentals.  I'd really focus on correcting bad habits we had noticed players making before.  You get more time to drill and work on the footwork and I find players learn a lot more looking at themselves (critical self-evaluation) than they do in studying the opponent.  Again though, in game week you better be studying your opponent more than yourself!

Edited November 26, 2021 by ThomasRoane

[Warhead36]

I wanna see what Turner can do with a legitimate QB talent. He was basically the only one to stump for Heinicke and its clear he's at the very least a low end starter in this league so he might have an eye for talent and who can fit his system and if he can land an actual thoroughbred that can also run this scheme, we could have our own stud for the next decade.

 

As good as Heinicke might be, you don't pass up on a Rolls Royce for a Hyundai.

[ThomasRoane]

20 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I wanna see what Turner can do with a legitimate QB talent. He was basically the only one to stump for Heinicke and its clear he's at the very least a low end starter in this league so he might have an eye for talent and who can fit his system and if he can land an actual thoroughbred that can also run this scheme, we could have our own stud for the next decade.

 

As good as Heinicke might be, you don't pass up on a Rolls Royce for a Hyundai.

 

No doubt.  I'm more of a WFT fan than a Heinicke fan.  I'm with RR's original philosophy of building a great team first (meaning above average personnel on both sides of the ball) and then adding the franchise QB.  They could do a lot worse than Heinicke as a placeholder.  I just don't want to see the team panic and trade a boat load of draft capitol for an unknown. 

 

I remember how bad the defense was in the years following the trade for RG III.  Those picks really set the team back talent wise.  Drafted players on rookie contracts (who are hungry to prove themselves to get paid) generally perform better and are more durable than the free agent merc's who come to your team to get paid; based on what they did for another team.  The bargain free agents this year (Oline, Carter, Humphries, etc.) have outperformed the high-priced FAs dramatically.  

 

I like how the team is trending talent wise.  I don't see a need to panic and mortgage the future to draft someone you're not sure of.  If they knew they could get a Joe Burrow or Herbert then hell yeah!  You go and get that guy.  I don't see one of those in College this year though.  

[Robert Adams]

I agree that I wouldn’t trade a lot of capital, but if Ron feels that Heinicke is serviceable then draft Malik Willis. He won’t be ready for prime time for a year or two. For immediate help look at Corral or Pickett who are the two most pro-ready QB’s in the draft.

[Skinsinparadise]

Found an article about both of my fav thus far mid round type QBs.  it's about the Senior Bowl.  I'd go Haener maybe a hair over Zappe.  They both though just make play after play.  Haener had another monster game yesterday.  Nothing elite about them skill wise, hence they should drop in the draft.  But both have that scrappy, make plays on the move, moxie style that ironically smacks some of Heinicke -- they both though have stronger arms than Taylor IMO. 

 

I was watching Haener mic'd up in practice.  He's fun -- plays with a ton of emotion. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

From my experience, the best way is to see these guys throw live.  To me its much less of a mystery when you can see it up close.  So if at the stadium that would mean watching it somewhere from the lower bowl.

 

I recall the WP once wrote an article about how Colt McCoy's arm strength improved.  I saw him that summer in camp and it wasn't hard to tell it was totally BS.

 

 

So we've got lower bowl tickets in the family and a few games back I happened to be at a game and was watching the big, physical guy throw with an enormous amount of zip and velocity.  I'm like who is that guy?  It was Shurmur.  Don't know anything about him or his accuracy but that guy can sling it and probably has the best arm of all the QB's on the team.

[FootballZombie]

3 hours ago, London Kev said:

The discussions about Heinicke's arm strength got me thinking: with all the different measurements and stats regarding players' size, speed, strength, explosiveness, etc, it's surprising they don't have one for QBs release time and throw velocity.

 

 

Hard to put stock in this metric the same way as other metics for younger QBs.

 

So many QBs have to rework and tweak their throwing methods when they come in the league, and they don't develop that super reliant and constant motion for several years.

 

If you saw that drew brees breakdown on J Allens horrific throwing motion before he came into the leauge, it serves as a good example. What does it matter to know how fast he can release that wonky off kilter throw when you know you are going to rework his form once you get your hands on him and that will drastically alter any Time to Throw number.

 

If you have a vet that you can track over a number of years, or a reaaaaalllly polished rookie, there is value. But its seems kinda worthless for many young players at the outset.

[kingdaddy]

Regarding TH, I think Turner is just scratching the surface of how to use all of his strengths. It's understandable that a coordinator make adjustments to his system based on his QB's strengths as opposed to who the original starter was (Fitz). More sprint outs off of play action where TH can use his legs and either run or throw is gonna buy receivers more time to get open and TH more time to find them. Getting defenders to chase him is also gonna wear down defenses later in the game. We have a very smart, mobile QB who his teammates love and I think the coaches are really starting to figure out what he's comortable doing most and where he's at his best. 

I agree with Nate Burleson, it's time people start accepting TH as the best option we have for the future until something better comes along...if that ever happens.

In Heinicke we trust.

[London Kev]

7 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

 

Hard to put stock in this metric the same way as other metics for younger QBs.

 

So many QBs have to rework and tweak their throwing methods when they come in the league, and they don't develop that super reliant and constant motion for several years.

 

If you saw that drew brees breakdown on J Allens horrific throwing motion before he came into the leauge, it serves as a good example. What does it matter to know how fast he can release that wonky off kilter throw when you know you are going to rework his form once you get your hands on him and that will drastically alter any Time to Throw number.

 

If you have a vet that you can track over a number of years, or a reaaaaalllly polished rookie, there is value. But its seems kinda worthless for many young players at the outset.

 

I get the point you're making, but the same could be said for the bench press for example. Is it worthless to measure a players' strength at age 21, because they're going to be stronger when they're 25 with another four years of weight training under their belt?

 

I was just thinking that as we're discussing the merits of keeping Heinicke or not, and the main negative against him is his lack of arm strength, it seems strange that there doesn't seem to be an official stat/measurement to show what his arm strength actually is.

 

I realise that it's obvious by observation that he doesn't have the velocity on his throws that someone like Mahomes has, but it's equally obvious that Tyreek Hill is faster than Dax Milne, but we still measure their top speed, quickness, acceleration, etc. to compare them exactly. 

[Est.1974]

19 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

My opinion about Taylor is evolving by the week it seems. I like him a lot. I admit that I may change my mind and considerably so if he completely lays an egg against Seattle, however. I like his moxie, his mobility and his arm is underrated. He appears to have the locker room too, which is obviously huge. He drives the ball downfield, which is exactly the type of QB we need and one who can evade the pass rush. I'm almost to the point in thinking we would be better off rolling with Taylor next season and build around him. A stifling defense, find another true WR#2, shore up the OL and I'd target RB Chris Rodriguez in the draft to ensure the running game remains strong. 

I’m similar in terms of my opinion growing on him as the season rolls on, although I would without question draft a QB to work/compete alongside him heading into the 2022 season.

 

Teams lose entire seasons once their starting QB goes down. TH would find a place on every NFL roster in my opinion. Even as a back-up #2 his qualities are invaluable.

 

Can he be the long term quality starter. Not sure. Not actually sure that matters right now. He’s shown enough to demonstrate that he can get us over the line in games. He’s shown that at worst he’s a ‘great’ #2 to have around. 
 

Extend TH, draft a high end prospect. Build from there.

[KDawg]

I’m on the fence here. I know it’s not popular to be in the middle but right now I am.

 

My current stance is this:

 

1) Give the rest of the season to truly evaluate Heinicke 

 

2) if a true upgrade is available via trade, FA or the draft… go after them

 

That’s my general process for upgrading positions.

 

Using Heinicke I’d say there are certainly upgrades to be had and fliers to be taken. 
 

In the draft specifically: Corral, Howell are definitive upgrades. Willis is very likely an upgrade but we don’t know how well he’d play the position at the pro level. Pickett is a wait and see if he can throw the ball.

 

So two guys I’d take definitively as upgrades now and one who has the ability to be a superstar but not a great QB as it currently stands.

 

So three guys I’d take early.

 

After that it’s mid round dudes with potential. Haener, Armstrong types to come in and be a backup and to see if they have anything heading into 2023.

 

But it’s still early. By the time the draft comes we may think Heinicke is a bad QB and there are 9 upgrades. Or he’s fantastic and there is just one. 
 

Got to let it play out more. 

[Going Commando]

18 hours ago, London Kev said:

The discussions about Heinicke's arm strength got me thinking: with all the different measurements and stats regarding players' size, speed, strength, explosiveness, etc, it's surprising they don't have one for QBs release time and throw velocity.

 

I've seen commentators sometimes compare release times during a game, and even show some graphics to illustrate it, but I've never seen it (or velocity) as an official stat or measurement. Surely it wouldn't be that difficult to measure?

 

Game day throws are too variable and dynamic to need a measurement like that.  You could line every QB up and have them throw a scripted route from a specific spot against air and radar gun that ball speed and it wouldn't really tell you much about their arm talent in the context of quarterbacking.

 

TBH you don't really need to push the ball with everything you've got that often in a game.  It's more about throwing it fast enough to beat that specific coverage you are facing while still putting it in place and making it catchable.  It's not that mechanically standard and happens at an instinctual level for the quarterback.  It's like you just feel how hard you need to throw it and where it needs to be placed and then you do that of you can.  And the guys with the most arm talent are the ones who can do it in the most dynamic ways, as in doing it on the move or off balance etc.

[El Mexican]

You guys are funny.

 

I'm sticking with Bill Walsh on this one.

When asked about his QB success he said something like "All I'm looking for is a guy who can throw a catchable ball."

 

TH fits this description perfectly. 

[CobraCommander]

Just now, El Mexican said:

You guys are funny.

 

I'm sticking with Bill Walsh on this one.

When asked about his QB success he said something like "All I'm looking for is a guy who can throw a catchable ball."

 

TH fits this description perfectly. 

That's nice but Bill Walsh coached in a different NFL.