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Read This Before Shouting "Fire the Kicker"


Dan T.

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5 hours ago, Borgold said:

So, I'm not sure I buy this coordination issue as an excuse. It still smells like an excuse to me. Additionally, if coordination and wind were such a huge factor why did the Pats rookie kicker make all his field goal attempts (he did miss a PAT).

My bet is that the Pats rookie kicker adjusted to the snapper and holder, not the other way around as Hopkins is experiencing.  Just a thought.

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8 hours ago, Dan T. said:

 

The article doesn't explain it, though it does acknowledge it.  And it notes that, after rough going through Week 11, he righted the ship and hit 14 of 15, including playoffs, to the end the season.

Sundberg was also battling injuries last season, so maybe they didn’t get synced up fully until week 12.  Still would have had another kicker in camp though.

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8 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

edit: triceps tendon was the injury that he got surgery on 

He tore his tri. Ron didn't think he'd be back 100% for this season & Cheeseman impressed him during combine/zoom talks.

 

 

 

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In case anyone is interested. I'm a stats geek who maintains a database of all field goal attempts, along with the probability numbers of each and every distance. For example a 50 yard field goal is made about 62% of the time. A 55 yarder is right at 50%. A 40 yarder is about 80%. Last year there were 34 kickers who attempted at least ten field goals. Of those 34, Hopkins ranked 24th in what I would classify as expectancy of kick percentage. 

 

He attempted 34 kicks (excluding his attempt in the playoffs) and made 27. Based on the distances of each kick, the expected value was about 26.23. So he was plus .77. (For the sake of clarity, these expectation numbers are based on the NFL kicking efficiency back in 2000. Kickers have gotten better across the board, so most kickers these days end up on the "plus" side.) Three times .77 is about 2.3, so basically Hopkins earned the team a little more than two points above what would have been expected throughout the course of the season. If you divide the 2.3 by the number of attempts (34), you get about .068, which as I said earlier comes in 24th.

 

With the exception of 2018 (he had a good year), Hopkins usually ranks between 15th and 25th. Kinda average. Not horrible but never among the truly good ones either.

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1 hour ago, Franklin60 said:

In case anyone is interested. I'm a stats geek who maintains a database of all field goal attempts, along with the probability numbers of each and every distance. For example a 50 yard field goal is made about 62% of the time. A 55 yarder is right at 50%. A 40 yarder is about 80%. Last year there were 34 kickers who attempted at least ten field goals. Of those 34, Hopkins ranked 24th in what I would classify as expectancy of kick percentage. 

 

He attempted 34 kicks (excluding his attempt in the playoffs) and made 27. Based on the distances of each kick, the expected value was about 26.23. So he was plus .77. (For the sake of clarity, these expectation numbers are based on the NFL kicking efficiency back in 2000. Kickers have gotten better across the board, so most kickers these days end up on the "plus" side.) Three times .77 is about 2.3, so basically Hopkins earned the team a little more than two points above what would have been expected throughout the course of the season. If you divide the 2.3 by the number of attempts (34), you get about .068, which as I said earlier comes in 24th.

 

With the exception of 2018 (he had a good year), Hopkins usually ranks between 15th and 25th. Kinda average. Not horrible but never among the truly good ones either.

I can buy this, but the fact that he is average is just another argument that he should face challengers. I don't even mind if the tie goes to Hopkins, but he should be outdueling someone because he isn't at that level (like Tress Way) where it doesn't make sense to bring in another leg.

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3 hours ago, Borgold said:

I can buy this, but the fact that he is average is just another argument that he should face challengers. I don't even mind if the tie goes to Hopkins, but he should be outdueling someone because he isn't at that level (like Tress Way) where it doesn't make sense to bring in another leg.

We must be cognizant of the delicate balance and psychological aspects of a kicker. I wish there was a Dick Butkus available as a kicker. That would rock!

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Watching the New England-Philadelphia game at the moment.  By the end of the 1st quarter, New England’s kicker (Nordin) had missed a field goal and a PAT.  This was the guy who a lot in last week’s game day thread were saying Washington should sign when the Patriots’ regular kicker returns.

 

Be careful what you ask for!!

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10 hours ago, SB17 said:

Watching the New England-Philadelphia game at the moment.  By the end of the 1st quarter, New England’s kicker (Nordin) had missed a field goal and a PAT.  This was the guy who a lot in last week’s game day thread were saying Washington should sign when the Patriots’ regular kicker returns.

 

Be careful what you ask for!!

One way the WFT can become an elite team is to couple an elite defense who forces turnovers and shuts the run game down & to pair that with an effective offense who can pound the rock and also a special teams punter who can put your defense is tremendous field position plus luck into a FG kicker who can bang about 90% of his kicks.  Hopkins ain’t that guy!  Why not take a shot in the dark in finding a legit kicker?  Like Graham Gano. D’OH!

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Hopkins is probably the best pitcher in nfl history.

He's got a nasty curveball, good screwball, occasional knuckle ball.

He knows when to waste pitches and nobody paints the corners better than Ole dusty.

Unfortunately he was just trained in the wrong sport.

 

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On 8/20/2021 at 4:52 AM, -JB- said:

One way the WFT can become an elite team is to couple an elite defense who forces turnovers and shuts the run game down & to pair that with an effective offense who can pound the rock and also a special teams punter who can put your defense is tremendous field position plus luck into a FG kicker who can bang about 90% of his kicks.  Hopkins ain’t that guy!  Why not take a shot in the dark in finding a legit kicker?  Like Graham Gano. D’OH!

Not disagreeing at all that we could use a better kicker.  Was trying to say that I don’t think Nordin is that player (as some in last week’s game day thread were suggesting).

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9 hours ago, redskinss said:

Hopkins is probably the best pitcher in nfl history.

He's got a nasty curveball, good screwball, occasional knuckle ball.

He knows when to waste pitches and nobody paints the corners better than Ole dusty.

Unfortunately he was just trained in the wrong sport.

 

 

Maybe soccer would have been just as good a fit, as baseball would have been for him.

Sometimes you want to slice a curve around defenders to make a goal

I don't claim to be a soccer expert by any means, so this is a loose assumption

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