2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

The hand size is going to be a weird subplot I presume in the Senior Bowl when they measure them. 

 

There was some concern for example about Goff but his hand size apparently a full inch bigger than Pickett.  Pickett's hands arent just on the low end of the spectrum where we got other examples of the same just not that many.  Instead it looks like they are going to be the smallest in the NFL and likely by a full inch.

 

Among other things part of the issue is fumbles. Goff did have a lot of fumbles in college.  And yep in the NFL, too.

 

I looked it up and saw 28 fumbles for Pickett his college career.  This dude below says 35.  I don't know.  But that's a lot of freaking fumbles.  Daniel Jones had fumbling issues in college, but not this level bad and boy did it follow him to the pros. 

 

 

 

 

Jared Goff Leads NFL in Fumbles

Detroit Lions quarterback is one fumble shy of his total number from 2020.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/jared-goff-leads-nfl-in-fumbles

 

Contextualizing Pickett’s hand size with historical data

Some reports have Pickett’s hand size at around 8.25 inches, while others tell of a figure slightly under 8. Whatever the case, this isn’t your usual hand size discussion. This is legitimate uncharted territory. A historical comparison — using data provided by resident RAS guru Kent Lee Platte — shows just how far off the map we are.

Over the past 37 seasons, 650 quarterbacks have registered hand measurements, either at combines or pro days. Of those 650 quarterbacks, Pickett would have the third-smallest hands of the group with his reported measurements. Only Tony Lowery (7.63 inches) and Doug Hudson (7.25 inches) had smaller. Divide it up, and Pickett’s hands are smaller than 99.6% of all hand measurements on record over that range. He’s in the 0.4th percentile.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/is-kenny-pickett-qb1-in-the-2022-nfl-draft/2/

 

this, of course, is contingent on Pickett’s reported measurements being confirmed in the offseason. But it’s easy to tell that his hands are smaller than the average QB. He famously wears two gloves to help with grip, and he also grips the ball a bit higher than normal — closer to the oblong end, where the circumference is smaller.

It’s worked for Pickett at the collegiate level so far. But NFL balls can run a bit bigger — sometimes as much as a full inch wider. With Pickett being such an outlier, one can’t help but feel some uncertainty toward his NFL projection. If he can’t grip NFL footballs as well, he can’t generate as much velocity. And without his trademark velocity, a lot of his favorite throws become more difficult to execute on a consistent basis.

QBWinz doesn’t matter. But QBHandz? That’s a legit thing.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Chump Bailey]

Will they be using NFL sized balls at the Senior Bowl?

[Silvernon]

9 hours ago, RWJ said:

I think Pickett will be the best of the bunch.  Just my 2 cents. 

I'm thinking it could be Carson Strong. 

 

Edit: and yeah, 8.25" hands ain't gonna do it for the NFL. Pickett has an uphill climb. 

 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Silvernon

[DWinzit]

35 fumbles in college, I hope that is an exaggerated number. If that's true and the ball will be larger, why is he being considered in the top 10...or even the first day?

 

Best fit is probably with Sean Payton in friendly confines of the Superdome (assuming Payton stays)

Edited January 20, 2022 by DWinzit

[Chump Bailey]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021436-kenny-pickett-nfl-draft-2022-scouting-report-for-pittsburgh-qb

Kenny Pickett NFL Draft 2022: Scouting Report for Pittsburgh QB

BR NFL SCOUTING DEPARTMENT

 

PRO COMPARISON: Taylor Heinicke

 

 

[Going Commando]

19 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Meh. I don't really buy this whole "you have to be an asshole to be a top QB" thing.

 

A person can be competitive and not necessarily be a complete jackoff. Montana, Brees, Peyton, Steve Young, Mahomes, Romo (don't kill me, but I've never heard anything but nice things about the guy as a person) are just a few examples of QBs who are or were very successful and are reportedly very nice guys.

 

Competitive? Sure. But not complete dicks like Brady seems to be a lot of the time.

 

Brady's an intense competitor but he's not a dick.  That may be Gisele Bundchen's influence on him, but he comes off as a legit compassionate and supportive teammate who is a well adjusted person other than he kisses his dad and son on the lips 🤢.

 

I would say most good QBs aren't jerks because you'd have to be so great that people would put up working so closely with you for such a long time, and be comfortable putting their careers on the line for you and being reliant upon you, that most simply won't do so.  Favre and Rodgers and Roethlisberger are jerks.  DeShaun Watson is apparently one too.  But other than that, I can't really think of any others off the top of my head.  Doing stuff that seems jerky like yelling at your teammates when they screw up or miss details in the heat of practice or a game is not jerk behavior in that context.  It's part of the job.  You are an extension of the coaching staff and you have to demand the absolute focus of your teammates and keep their intensity level up.  A huddle craves that kind of leadership. But in terms of being a nice person, I agree with you that it feels like most of the great QBs in the league right now are also some of the nicest and most likable players in the game.  That's actually kind of expected of them because the NFL uses them as ambassadors for the league.

 

Back to Pickett, I get the vibe he's jerk, at least on the field.  I don't really care about how he is off the field, but his fake slide and the way he celebrated after getting away with it were a window into his personality as a player.  There are other windows, like plays where he plows through defenders on big conversions and spins the ball in their faces and straddles the line of taunting.  He plays with an edge and he has explicitly said he does so because it is a philosophy of how to compete for him.  Unlike SIP, I don't think he was lying or being cringey, I thought he was speaking plainly and trying to justify his on field actions.  It annoys me when I watch him but it would be way more tolerable if he was on my team.  And I put my dislike for that stuff aside when I'm just trying to evaluate him. And also I recognize that not everyone can just lock in and go HAM first snap like Brady, some guys have to rev up their emotions and generate some swagger in order to block out the fear and get focused.  I think Pickett is like Burrow and Mayfield in that way.

[Panninho]

If I was Pickett I'd explore every shady possibility to get a hand-enlargement surgery.

[KDawg]

55 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

35 fumbles in college, I hope that is an exaggerated number. If that's true and the ball will be larger, why is he being considered in the top 10...or even the first day?

 

Best fit is probably with Sean Payton in friendly confines of the Superdome (assuming Payton stays)

 

I'm still waiting to see what the senior bowl/draft process tells me about Pickett. He's been outside of my top 3 thus far.

 

Quite frankly... SO FAR (I reserve the right to change my mind based on the draft process and interviews and such) I think people have Howell and Pickett completely flipped. If one of these guys has fall off the radar potential it's Pickett.

 

I'm not there with him yet. He had a good season and was unapologetically dominant. 

 

But he forces more throws, has more turnover worthy plays than any of the top guys and has a lot of mediocrity on his resume. 

 

For now he's my #4. I could see Strong passing him on my list or him moving up depending on the process.

 

 

[Going Commando]

18 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I think it would be after a trade up rather than waiting at 11, but this rings most true to me so far. Willis is the guy I keep thinking Rivera could talk himself into shooting for the moon with. He’s not a HC who will choose a more pro-ready but lower ceiling guy just bc he’s afraid for his job. He’ll believe he can earn the time to develop his guy and shoot for ceiling imo. 

 

Willis is my favorite of the prospects, so it might be wishful thinking on my part, but I think he's the fit for us too.  For similar reasons as you, but also the fact that he's a local kid, that he's religious and low key and not going to big time anyone plays into it.  Rivera likes that in his QBs.  And also the fact that we have a lot of B level playmakers and no A level ones and getting one at QB could take the ceiling off this moribund offense.

 

But we're not going to have to trade up for a QB.  I think the QB demand in this draft is way softer than people realize.  This QB class is relatively weak and the position player class at the top of the draft is much easier to stick your neck out for.  And the vet QB market is going to be active I think.  The last stop for any QB prospect with a natural pick in the first round is Pittsburgh at 20 as there is basically zero demand for the position in every team after that point, so every QB still on the board after that is headed for a tumble.  That will embolden teams in the top ten to pass on the position there and either target the spot in round 2 or work a trade up for the guy or guys who drop.

 

There also isn't a lot of separation in quality and safety between the top three QBs (Corral, Pickett, Willis) and I think we are absolutely going to be able to get at least one of them at 11.  I think it could be QB1.  But it's also not hard to talk yourself into any of those three being "the real" QB1 if one of the others is off the board when you pick.

 

I think the fact that each of those three are by turns mocked in the teens and 20s, or in Willis's case in the 40s by some, in January, is an indication that their stock isn't irrationally climbing.  Probably at least two will be there at 11 and I think all three will be.  My guess is we take Willis at 11 as QB1 and Pickett goes to New Orleans or Pittsburgh as QB2 depending on how the vet market shakes out, and somebody trades back into the late first to pick Corral as QB3.

[DWinzit]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I'm still waiting to see what the senior bowl/draft process tells me about Pickett. He's been outside of my top 3 thus far.

 

Quite frankly... SO FAR (I reserve the right to change my mind based on the draft process and interviews and such) I think people have Howell and Pickett completely flipped. If one of these guys has fall off the radar potential it's Pickett.

 

I'm not there with him yet. He had a good season and was unapologetically dominant. 

 

But he forces more throws, has more turnover worthy plays than any of the top guys and has a lot of mediocrity on his resume. 

 

For now he's my #4. I could see Strong passing him on my list or him moving up depending on the process.

It is going to take a lot for me not to move from Corral and Howell being the top 2

 

I like Pickett's film and would rank him 3rd but I like Willis's potential more

 

I still have Pickett #4 but if those 35 fumbles and hand measurements are true, I will move other over him. I am not certain any other others will rank in higher than the 2nd round...but might be worthy to move into the the end of the first round to grab that 5th year on the contract. I do like Zappe, Ridder and Strong in the this group. I figure one of these guys will impress at the senior Bowl and move up. None of these 3 will be top 20 for me

[CaptainChaos47]

8 hours ago, zskins said:

 

They didn't have any other QB going after Pittsburg. They messed up the draft by putting Miami at #22 when Miami doesn't even have a 1st round pick as they gave that to Philly. 

 

So we don't pick him at 11 but then trade up from round 2 to go to 1 again to get Pickett that doesn't make any sense to me. Pickett also has small hands. That's lot of capital to give up to back to round 1 again for Pickett. 

It wasn't a definitive statement.  I was just saying if we liked him and didn't take him at 11 he probably doesn't make it past 20

[mhd24]

19 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Willis is my favorite of the prospects, so it might be wishful thinking on my part, but I think he's the fit for us too.  For similar reasons as you, but also the fact that he's a local kid, that he's religious and low key and not going to big time anyone plays into it.  Rivera likes that in his QBs.  And also the fact that we have a lot of B level playmakers and no A level ones and getting one at QB could take the ceiling off this moribund offense.

 

But we're not going to have to trade up for a QB.  I think the QB demand in this draft is way softer than people realize.  This QB class is relatively weak and the position player class at the top of the draft is much easier to stick your neck out for.  And the vet QB market is going to be active I think.  The last stop for any QB prospect with a natural pick in the first round is Pittsburgh at 20 as there is basically zero demand for the position in every team after that point, so every QB still on the board after that is headed for a tumble.  That will embolden teams in the top ten to pass on the position there and either target the spot in round 2 or work a trade up for the guy or guys who drop.

 

There also isn't a lot of separation in quality and safety between the top three QBs (Corral, Pickett, Willis) and I think we are absolutely going to be able to get at least one of them at 11.  I think it could be QB1.  But it's also not hard to talk yourself into any of those three being "the real" QB1 if one of the others is off the board when you pick.

 

I think the fact that each of those three are by turns mocked in the teens and 20s, or in Willis's case in the 40s by some, in January, is an indication that their stock isn't irrationally climbing.  Probably at least two will be there at 11 and I think all three will be.  My guess is we take Willis at 11 as QB1 and Pickett goes to New Orleans or Pittsburgh as QB2 depending on how the vet market shakes out, and somebody trades back into the late first to pick Corral as QB3.

Detroit (late first via the Rams) is a prime team to take a QB.  They are the floor for a QB in the first.

[UK Skins]

Those stories about Pickett want me to avoid him like the plague. It would be just so WFT though to risk a QB who statistically is too small to play in the NFL. Why take the risk, just draft one of the others.

[Going Commando]

16 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Quite frankly... SO FAR (I reserve the right to change my mind based on the draft process and interviews and such) I think people have Howell and Pickett completely flipped. If one of these guys has fall off the radar potential it's Pickett.

 

I think the onus is on you to explain why Howell should be ranked over Pickett, not vice versa.  The reason everyone else has Pickett over Howell is because he played so much better than him this year.  And he elevated his team in a way that Howell didn't.  Howell was a preseason Heisman hopeful and UNC came into the season ranked 10th and the second favorite to win the ACC after Clemson and they finished unranked and with a losing record.  Pitt came in ranked 23rd and they finished 13th and they won the ACC and he finished as a Heisman finalist.  There was a huge disparity in the outcomes of their seasons and it's natural to rank Pickett over Howell after that.

 

The main reasons I like Pickett over Howell is that I think he is much smarter and more instinctive and he is much more accurate and more of a playmaker at the position.  I think he sees the field so much better than Howell--in everything from reading coverage to reading pressure to finding running lanes--and I disagree that he forces more turnover-worthy plays than the other QBs.  He is decisive and makes anticipation throws more often.  And there is a major distinction to be drawn between a guy who panics or throws blind into zones and a guy who throws into tight man coverage on the outside to give his receiver a chance to make a play.  Pickett is the latter type, and he got super good at placing the ball for his receivers to make plays on them when they didn't get open on the outside.  And I think that level of skill in placement and the mentality to attack those tough windows are necessary to make as many plays as Pickett did when he only had one good receiver.

 

And on the flip side, I don't think Howell is a very smart or instinctive player.  I don't think he sees the field well or reads his pressures well.  I also think he drifts into his pressure too much because he doesn't play with anticipation or strong feel, and four man pressures get home against good protections because the ball is way too late or he's moved himself into trouble.  And though I like his toughness, I think there are way too many plays in his film where he's forced himself to be a tough guy by making the wrong reads and getting himself killed.  Games where his line is getting killed and he's passing over open checkdowns with room to get first downs or close to first downs to wait and on late windows in middle zones further downfield.  Being tough is great but not really when it only becomes necessary as a result of playing dumb football.  And the other big issue I have with Howell is that he's not that accurate.  Some of it is coming from poor reads and some of it is coming from the way he moves around in the pocket and sets up on his back foot for throws.  He's not a big enough playmaker or freak athlete for me to overlook accuracy issues.

 

I don't dislike Howell, as I think some of his problems could be improved with a better situation.  But I definitely think he's a weaker prospect than Willis, Pickett, and Corral.  I see no reason to choose him over them at 11.  I think he's a fringe first or perhaps a second round pick.  I could get behind a strategy of passing on QB in the first in order to pick a blue moon type LB or DB or elite WR and coming back around to Howell later, but there is no chance that I would draft him over Willis/Pickett/Corral.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think the onus is on you to explain why Howell should be ranked over Pickett, not vice versa. 

 

I've done it several times with no one bothering to rebuke, yet that is ignored and you come in here swinging. 

[Going Commando]

38 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Detroit (late first via the Rams) is a prime team to take a QB.  They are the floor for a QB in the first.

 

That's true.  They're the one team that could take a flier on a QB and/or generate some movement from other teams to trade up in front of them.  That's what I think will get QB3 picked late in the first.

 

But I also don't think any of the QB prospects will be good enough to get them to move on from Goff.  I think they take Hutchinson or Thibs with their pick and then just go BPA with that second first.  There is always someone super tempting in the 20s, usually a WR or a DB.  Could even see them taking Kenneth Walker at that spot.

[Die Hard]

What's Drake London's speed?

 

I watched a highlight reel of his.... he has a weird frame and movement pattern. He doesn't seem to have explosive speed.... as I didn't see many of his catches with much separation. He looks like he has incredible hand-eye..... good catch radius, he's incredible up in the air (and body adjustment) and wins contested catches. While not blazing fast.... he has great acceleration (stop-start)... looks like some YAC cards.

 

But for a guy who seems to be hyped as the best receiver in this draft..... he's missing some big plays. He doesn't look like a game-breaker..... but more like a very good #1.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

What's Drake London's speed?

 

I watched a highlight reel of his.... he has a weird frame and movement pattern. He doesn't seem to have explosive speed.... as I didn't see many of his catches with much separation. He looks like he has incredible hand-eye..... good catch radius, he's incredible up in the air (and body adjustment) and wins contested catches. While not blazing fast.... he has great acceleration (stop-start)... looks like some YAC cards.

 

But for a guy who seems to be hyped as the best receiver in this draft..... he's missing some big plays. He doesn't look like a game-breaker..... but more like a very good #1.

 

He's not the best receiver in the draft. He is probably the best possession receiver in the draft, though, in my opinion.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

If we could somehow manage to get a QB at #11 and a WR at #42 or wherever in the 2nd round, that would be nice. Follow it up with a Guard or Tackle in Round 3?

 

Whenever teams get young QBs to build around, they almost always support them with talent to grow with. I know we have some solid options at WR (on paper, if healthy), but you can never have too many supporting castmates. I would argue that OG might be the "biggest need" on offense, but getting another dynamic WR would be great.

 

I would expect any RB additions (even if we re-sign McKissic) would come from the deep free agent class.

[mhd24]

36 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

That's true.  They're the one team that could take a flier on a QB and/or generate some movement from other teams to trade up in front of them.  That's what I think will get QB3 picked late in the first.

 

But I also don't think any of the QB prospects will be good enough to get them to move on from Goff.  I think they take Hutchinson or Thibs with their pick and then just go BPA with that second first.  There is always someone super tempting in the 20s, usually a WR or a DB.  Could even see them taking Kenneth Walker at that spot.

Detroit is interesting.  Edge is a big need for them, but they have needs everywhere.  I like Swift, but he's been injury prone.  However, the Lions need playmakers ASAP.  Hock is pretty good, but he's going to be a FA soon.  WR is a big need for them as well.  Could see them being the floor for Jameson Williams as well.

 

As a huge Najee fan (as well as Etienne last year), how do you compare Walker to the 1st round RBs last year?

Edited January 20, 2022 by mhd24

[skinny21]

17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If we could somehow manage to get a QB at #11 and a WR at #42 or wherever in the 2nd round, that would be nice. Follow it up with a Guard or Tackle in Round 3?

 

Whenever teams get young QBs to build around, they almost always support them with talent to grow with. I know we have some solid options at WR (on paper, if healthy), but you can never have too many supporting castmates. I would argue that OG might be the "biggest need" on offense, but getting another dynamic WR would be great.

 

I would expect any RB additions (even if we re-sign McKissic) would come from the deep free agent class.

I’m kind of with you here - after qb, I kind of feel like G (and tackle) depth might be the most important offensive need, but 1) if you land a good guard, they’re probably not starting ahead of Flowers/Sweitzer, 2) guard depth is a lot cheaper in FA than a #2 receiver (or just a receiving ‘weapon’, even if they aren’t your #2), and 3) unless you’re taking a guard really early, they’re probably not going to better (or much better anyway) than a halfway decent FA depth signing.

 

Rb is a bit trickier for me, but for various reasons, I don’t think I’d take one in the 2nd.  Sounds like there should be good options in the 3rd though, but deciding between going that route vs a capable FA (considering it’s a fairly cheap position) is a tough call for me.

 

As to receiver, we’ve been lucky with Terry’s health for the most part, and considering we’ll be bringing in a new qb, I’d like to have some insurance  there (as well as a running mate for Terry).  Pairing a cheap/good receiver with Terry (and his big contract, assuming that happens) would be a smart move, IMO… if we can pull it off.

 

 

[Warhead36]

Yeah I'm off of Pickett now. He's gonna be Danny Dimes 2.0 with all the fumbling.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I'm off of Pickett now. He's gonna be Danny Dimes 2.0 with all the fumbling.

 

If his hands really are as small as rumored, I wouldn't draft him. But maybe someone ahead of us will, which could drive a better QB down a bit. Analysis seem to think Pickett is the best QB of the bunch, so maybe someone overlooks it (Looking at you Giants)

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I do agree that RB is best valued in FA than in the draft. We have our main RB and a pass-catching threat, so adding another back in the 2nd or 3rd would be a bit of a luxury. But I do think it makes sense to throw some FA dough at Edmonds, Conner, etc. to come in and be a rotational piece. Of course, McKissic will probably get paid decent $$ too, but not a ton, and Gibson being on a rookie contract let's you spend a bit on FA backs to round out the group.

 

Of course, you could get a good option in Round 3-5, but I agree that those resources are best spent on higher value positions that would cost a lot more in FA to bring in.

Example: 2nd round WR for 4 years would save you a lot of money versus going out and paying Cedric Wilson $7m a year for 3 years to be your 3rd or 4th option. You'll have Samuels tied up at $12m this year I think, and McLaurin extension will be close to $20m a year ... so you really need that group to be rounded out with rookie contracts ala Dyami Brown, Dax Milne, etc.

Edited January 20, 2022 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]