2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Peregrine]

The real discussion about taking a QB in the first isn't whether the draft class is strong enough, or if you have to to make the position a priority, it's whether the player you take is any good. If he's not, it's a disaster to waste your #11 pick because you need a "position". Pickett I think will be a flop, physically the hand issue and other issues will end up keeping him from achieving anything. Howell is a disaster waiting to happen, a slow bowling ball that won't translate well.

 

Willis is probably the best bet but that's saying something, great arm, great physical talent, and hard to rate because he was behind a horrid ok ne. But his decision making raises red flags, hes a big injury risk as he runs like RG3, and unlike other running QB once pressure shows up he just bolts and doesn't look down field. A very big flag. He's got the best chance of success of all of them, but there are still major red flags. Ron CANT afford to draft a player at this spot that doesn't make an immediate impact. Our drafts have been crap since Ron was here except for the #1 picks, so he has to hit on an impact player.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Redskins 2021 said:

I think Rivera may already have something done with one of these vet Qb. I think it is a vet Qb could be any of them but most likely Trubisky. Him not going to the senior bowl is definitely I think a tell. These teams all talk during season hopefully its already done. They definitely seem very confident.

 

There almost seems to be a swagger about their desire to swing for the fences with a vibe that they land a big fish.  That doesn't feel to me at all like Trubisky.  I dont doubt that Trubisky s a fallback option but I can't fathom they are privately excited about Trubisky where Rivera has his mouthpiece (Mike Silver) talk up them swinging for the fences where they think Trubisky represents a big swing.

 

If it is indeed Trubisky.  It IMO will be an initial PR disaster.  He's the only dude whether justified or not among off season targets who is actually an NFL punchline.   Marrying the NFL punchline team at QB with the biggest punchline player at QB that's available - will be greeted IMO with plenty of ridicule.  If Rivera tries to sell this, my prediction is he will be shocked at the level of ridicule he will get.  I like Rivera a lot but i also think he can be a bit naive as for the perception of what happens around the team.  He doesn't have a grasp IMO for the built in cyncism about this team.

 

The ridicule though would be temporary and disappear if its followed up by a first round QB.  Not sure it will go away if its a 2nd round QB. 

 

I like to watch when I can interviews of players to get a feel for their personality.  Trubisky to me comes off oddly jockish for the QB spot.  His pedestrain score on the Wonderlic doesn't surprise me after watching some of his interviews.   The way he talks he looks like a dude who belongs on Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure.   I am not saying he comes off dumb.  But to me he doesn't come like a cereberal QB savant type.  When you watch Alex when we acquired him you can easily see that he's a smart dude by just listening to him.  Plenty of other Qbs give that vibe, too.

 

My point is if they try to sell Trubisky coupled with a 2nd rounder, i don't think Trubisky will come off reassuring to the doubters when they listen to his interviews.  

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Redskins 2021]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

There almost seems to be a swagger about their desire to swing for the fences with a vibe that they land a big fish.  That doesn't feel to me at all like Trubisky.  I dont doubt that Trubisky s a fallback option but I can't fathom they are privately excited about Trubisky where Rivera has his mouthpiece (Mike Silver) talk up them swinging for the fences where they think Trubisky represents a big swing.

 

If it is indeed Trubisky.  It IMO will be an initial PR disaster.  He's the only dude whether justified or not among off season targets who is actually an NFL punchline.   Marrying the NFL punchline team at QB with the biggest punchline player at QB that's available - will be greeted IMO with plenty of ridicule.  If Rivera tries to sell this, my prediction is he will be shocked at the level of ridicule he will get.  I like Rivera a lot but i also think he can be a bit naive as for the perception of what happens around the team.  He doesn't have a grasp IMO for the built in cyncism about this team.

 

The ridicule though would be temporary and dissapear if its followed up by a first round QB.  Not sure it will go away if its a 2nd round QB. 

 

I like to watch when I can interviews of players to get a feel for their personality.  Trubisky to me comes off oddly jockish for the QB spot.  His pedestrain score on the Wonderlic doesn't surprise me after watching some of his interviews.   The way he talks he looks like a dude who belongs on Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure.   I am saying he comes off dumb.  But to me he doesn't come like a cereberal QB savant type.  When you watch Alex when we acquired you can easily see that he's a smart dude by just listening him.  Plenty of other Qbs give that vibe, too.

 

My point is if they try to sell Trubisky coupled with a 2nd rounder, i don't think Trubisky will come off reassuring to the doubters when they listen to his interviews.  

 

 

 

I agree it's not Trubisky he is excited for. Rivera is a university of cal alum. I am hoping it means something. If you put Rodgers on are team we beat GB 24 to 10 not other way around. 

[Zim489]

Im weary of Pickett. The things people like about him could all be contributed to him being a 5th year senior in an era where the average age of the starter as a whole is becoming younger with more and more prospects leaving early for the the draft. A 4 year starting 5th year senior should be able to do all the little things correct. Add on the ACC being historically bad and having Addison as a 1st round prospect next year blowing up ( I REALLY wanted him on the terps 2 years ago) and you have a guy that had everything possible go right for him.

[mhd24]

16 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I've watched enough cut ups and analysis of Corral now to finally put my finger on why I have started to like Pickett a little over him despite him being faster and having a better arm.  Pickett has better instincts than him and he's more of a dime dropper, especially downfield and in between and around the hashes.  Corral kind of struggles a bit with the deep ball and throwing the seams.  He's going to turn you and break your stride or get you hit, and that's one reason why I don't think his big play production was as high as Pickett's this year. Kind of noticed it last year too with big plays that probably should have gone for TDs to Elijah Moore but the placement wasn't quite right.  TBH short and outside with quick outs were parts of the field where his accuracy looked really good and natural.  And I think that's because their offense was so heavy on swings and screens and those short outs as a way to essentially create a horizontal run game.

 

He doesn't feel like a totally natural QB like Pickett to me, and it's a processing issue IMO.  In the A&M game he's got a 4th and goal toward the end of the second quarter and they run a goal line shotgun RPO package with an early motion that tells him A&M is in cover zero.  The design of the play is for a mesh on the outside to create space for a swing pass to the H Back and free him to the edge.  Corral pulls the ball and then takes the first throwing window to the H after he reads that the guy who is supposed to be covering him is caught in no man's land and has shifted to trying to rush him and get into the throwing lane.  The play gets sped up as a result and the mesh ends up not working and the defender who is supposed to get picked rallies to the ball for the big turnover on downs play.  In a situation like that Corral would have done one of two different things to make that play if he was a total natural: buy time for a second window to open up on the outside of the play and give the H more space and a better chance to get to the edge of the D.  Or clock that the D is in cover zero and if he stays in the pocket instead of drifting left, or just stops drifting and steps up, then he has his favorite target in Drummond inside, especially after the mesh fails.   He needed to read the coverage and anticipate better to rescue that play.  I think there are a lot of little missed reads like that which contribute to him not making as many big plays as Pickett this season.

 

I also don't accept the take that Corral is more careful with the ball than Pickett.  He had two really bad fumbles in the second quarter of that game where he was so loose with the ball and another throw that should have been a pick that was just bad placement throwing downfield against man coverage.  A career 2:1 TD to INT ratio is OK but it's worse than Pickett's.  IMO he is looser with the ball than Pickett and doesn't instinctively protect it into contact the way he should. 

 

And I have criticized Pickett for some happy feet and being to quick to bail sound pockets, but Corral has the opposite issue IMO.  He works with less five man protections than Pickett and gets more quick passes schemed in and he still holds the ball too long too often.  I don't think he's as good at reading pressures and anticipating protection issues as Pickett and that goes back to him not being as instinctive at the position as Pickett is.

 

I like Corral and think he's got markedly better arm talent than Pickett and he's got much quicker feet and he is a good fit for a really quick passing game like Ole Miss ran.  But I think the placement issues with Corral are more of a hindrance than we've talked about, and I just don't think he sees the field as well as Pickett.  I think he could work out, but I can't really talk myself into picking him over Pickett if they're both on the board at 11, and they should be.  He's kind of stuck in between Pickett and Willis for me--not nearly as athletic or high ceiling of a project as Willis and not as good today as Pickett. 

 

And if I'm being totally honest, Howell is noticeably more accurate than him too.  I like his arm better than Howell's and he is way faster and more fluid of an athlete, and I don't think Howell reads the field really well.  IMO Corral saw it better this year and did a better job managing pressure and he also managed to look faster than Howell on two bad ankles.  I would choose Corral over Howell as my third choice and not really have too much doubt about it.  More of a consideration of can I get Howell at a better price than Corral to make up that gap in their quality.  But I like Willis and Pickett best at 11 and feel they represent good value there.

 

This is for the purpose of sorting out the hierarchy among the QB class though.  I would not be locked in to picking any of them at 11, I would play the vet market first just to see what shakes out of the tree, but I would absolutely make sure we got one of these four QBs or Ridder if we strike out on the good vets.

Hypothetically if somehow still had our 1st (11th) and didn't go QB, who is your go-to player that you want?  I don't think there is anyway Hamilton is available at 11.  He's probably the cleanest player in the class in terms of an elite talent.  I want QB, but if it were a non-qb, I think I would veer towards London (gives us something we don't have at all) or the best CB available (we need much better talent in the back-end).  

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

If we get Carr, I doubt we go QB in the draft. He's young enough to be the guy fr as long as the rookie contract.

 

If we go the worst route, which would be the mitch and ridder in the second, you'll be able to watch peoples heads explode when Ron uses the 1rst rounder on another LBer if we strike out in FA.

 

I agree both statements are true.  But I just don't hate the second plan like everyone else seems to.  And I think it's because I think Lloyd and Ridder are far better than people realize.  Ridder is one of the winningest QBs in CFB history.  There is something special in the sauce with him. You don't elevate an absolute nothing of a program like Cincinnati into the air of the CFP without having something special about you that causes winning.  And he's a good athlete too.  There is such a palpable Dak Prescott feel to him that is particularly strong for me because I've had to watch Dak blossom up close in our division.  I think we could follow largely the same plan with Ridder that the Cowboys did with Dak and be successful.

 

And Lloyd is a blue moon linebacker prospect.  If Ron picks him at 11, that's him getting his Luke Kuechly here.  You're talking about getting a future All Pro and that is always great usage of your draft picks.  Trubisky would just be an interesting lotto ticket and positive culture guy that you need to build a locker room.  I don't really see a downside to signing him unless he asks for too much money.

 

I think it takes more vision to see it, but that plan makes sense to me.  You win by getting great players and I think we will for sure have gotten one and maybe got another one.  I think it could be hitting two home runs with our first two picks and a really good start to the draft.

[Zim489]

18 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

The real discussion about taking a QB in the first isn't whether the draft class is strong enough, or if you have to to make the position a priority, it's whether the player you take is any good. If he's not, it's a disaster to waste your #11 pick because you need a "position".

Well Ron cant afford to ignore the position any longer. Its why so many were so pressed with drafting a guy last year. You move heaven and earth to get one of the top 4. Especially when you look ahead to next year (the 2022 class) and see a vast wilderness of nothingness.

 

Ron painted himself into this corner and it will likely end up being his downfall

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Hypothetically if somehow still had our 1st (11th) and didn't go QB, who is your go-to player that you want?  I don't think there is anyway Hamilton is available at 11.  He's probably the cleanest player in the class in terms of an elite talent.  I want QB, but if it were a non-qb, I think I would veer towards London (gives us something we don't have at all) or the best CB available (we need much better talent in the back-end).  

 

Devin Lloyd.  He's my favorite player in the class.  I like Hamilton but he's not as sturdy or impactful as Lloyd IMO, and the position value of safety is absolutely awful early in the first round.  Worse than any other position except center.

 

I'm interested in Stingley and Gardner as CB prospects in the teens but Lloyd is better than them IMO.  I really like London too, but I think I've actually started liking  Garrett Wilson more than him, and Wilson would be my second non-QB choice at 11.  If we pass on a QB at 11, then we need to make sure we get a future All Pro with that pick and those are the two guys who seem available that are the safest bets to hit that level IMO.

[skinny21]

26 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

I think Rivera may already have something done with one of these vet Qb. I think it is a vet Qb could be any of them but most likely Trubisky. Him not going to the senior bowl is definitely I think a tell. These teams all talk during season hopefully its already done. They definitely seem very confident.

Isn’t that Rebranding Day though?

 

22 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

If you believe in Trubs being a Reclamation project a la Tannehill why bring in another guy behind him to hedge your bets before he even plays a game? Especially if its with the day 2 guys who are the roughly 7% hit rate. Even more so in a weak class. Sounds like hes trying to do both things and will fail at both because Reclamation projects rarely work. He has to go all in down one path and hope for the best. 

I doubt they’d have full faith in Trubisky, but more see him as a guy that can help them be a bit more competitive, while also serving as a stopgap.  Essentially a slightly less certain of a commodity than Fitzpatrick, but a similar situation.  The day 2 rookie is a bit more problematic, though 1) the staff is buying that rookie time to develop with Trubisky in the fold, and 2) even if the rook doesn’t show starting potential early, they could potentially earn a backup role down the line.

Basically (and remember this is a backup plan), let’s say it’s 50/50 Trubisky can be competent enough that the team can be competitive, and 10-20% chance the 2nd rounder (especially given time to develop) can be competent enough.  Then maybe 5% chance for Trubisky and 5% chance the 2nd rounder can become a franchise qb.  They (might) buy some time, offer a (minor) chance at true success, and then the staff can try again next year.  Not ideal, but again, it’s a backup plan.  Fair to believe they’d be better off using the 2nd rounder on an impact player.

 

@Peregrine Hard to disagree, but at least you’re taking a swing, which we need to keep doing until we hit.  Lots of other current top qbs had big questions coming out, so there’s some hope there…

[Redskins 2021]

2 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Well Ron cant afford to ignore the position any longer. Its why so many were so pressed with drafting a guy last year. You move heaven and earth to get one of the top 4. Especially when you look ahead to next year (the 2022 class) and see a vast wilderness of nothingness.

 

Ron painted himself into this corner and it will likely end up being his downfall

That is dead on 

[Koolblue13]

13 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I agree both statements are true.  But I just don't hate the second plan like everyone else seems to.  And I think it's because I think Lloyd and Ridder are far better than people realize.  Ridder is one of the winningest QBs in CFB history.  There is something special in the sauce with him. You don't elevate an absolute nothing of a program like Cincinnati into the air of the CFP without having something special about you that causes winning.  And he's a good athlete too.  There is such a palpable Dak Prescott feel to him that is particularly strong for me because I've had to watch Dak blossom up close in our division.  I think we could follow largely the same plan with Ridder that the Cowboys did with Dak and be successful.

 

And Lloyd is a blue moon linebacker prospect.  If Ron picks him at 11, that's him getting his Luke Kuechly here.  You're talking about getting a future All Pro and that is always great usage of your draft picks.  Trubisky would just be an interesting lotto ticket and positive culture guy that you need to build a locker room.  I don't really see a downside to signing him unless he asks for too much money.

 

I think it takes more vision to see it, but that plan makes sense to me.  You win by getting great players and I think we will for sure have gotten one and maybe got another one.  I think it could be hitting two home runs with our first two picks and a really good start to the draft.

Lloyd and Ridder would be perfect IMO.

 

So would Willis and Muma.

[Zim489]

8 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Isn’t that Rebranding Day though?

 

I doubt they’d have full faith in Trubisky, but more see him as a guy that can help them be a bit more competitive, while also serving as a stopgap.  Essentially a slightly less certain of a commodity than Fitzpatrick, but a similar situation.  The day 2 rookie is a bit more problematic, though 1) the staff is buying that rookie time to develop with Trubisky in the fold, and 2) even if the rook doesn’t show starting potential early, they could potentially earn a backup role down the line.

Basically (and remember this is a backup plan), let’s say it’s 50/50 Trubisky can be competent enough that the team can be competitive, and 10-20% chance the 2nd rounder (especially given time to develop) can be competent enough.  Then maybe 5% chance for Trubisky and 5% chance the 2nd rounder can become a franchise qb.  They (might) buy some time, offer a (minor) chance at true success, and then the staff can try again next year.  Not ideal, but again, it’s a backup plan.  Fair to believe they’d be better off using the 2nd rounder on an impact player.

 

@Peregrine Hard to disagree, but at least you’re taking a swing, which we need to keep doing until we hit.  Lots of other current top qbs had big questions coming out, so there’s some hope there…

Spending a 2nd rounder this year on QB and then a 1st rounder next year especially when were slotted to be drafting in the teens again with all liklihood is admitting they didnt try hard enough or the epically failed in their evaluations. 

 

This scenario will be off the table. They will not be drafting a QB next year. 

[Redskins 2021]

What would fields be worth in this years draft? Would he be top guy what would chicago give him up for if there coach goes in another direction. I could see them sending him to Seattle taking him and 2 first rounder for Wilson

Edited January 22, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

And if I'm being totally honest, Howell is noticeably more accurate than him too.  I like his arm better than Howell's and he is way faster and more fluid of an athlete, and I don't think Howell reads the field really well.  IMO Corral saw it better this year and did a better job managing pressure and he also managed to look faster than Howell on two bad ankles.  I would choose Corral over Howell as my third choice and not really have too much doubt about it.  More of a consideration of can I get Howell at a better price than Corral to make up that gap in their quality.  But I like Willis and Pickett best at 11 and feel they represent good value there.

 

This is for the purpose of sorting out the hierarchy among the QB class though.  I would not be locked in to picking any of them at 11, I would play the vet market first just to see what shakes out of the tree, but I would absolutely make sure we got one of these four QBs or Ridder if we strike out on the good vets.

 

Great anaylsis.  I agree wtih some of it, some of it I don't.  But I land in a similar place.  I just have the same top 4 QBs but just in a different order.   I don't think anyone here has the same 1-4 order?       To me the top 4 are really close.  I want to watch the Senior Bowl to more confidently seperate these guys.  And like you I prefer a veteran.

 

Even though I've given him a hard time in recent days, I have spent the most time trying to fall in love with Pickett's play.  He confounds me the most of the top 4 QBs.  That's why I keep watching him.  Why I want to fall for him is I like his personality the most among the top 4.    I am sold on his intangibles which is a big deal to me.   And I think his skill sets fits this offense really well.  His skill set doesn't confound me but what confounds me is trying to balance his assets and liabilities and guess his future. 

 

Studying this offense in my own amateurish way, I think what they do best is outsize zone runs and they sell it well, too.  That sets up boots/naked boots well.  And among these QBs, Pickett IMO fits it really well.  I like how he resets his feet quickly when he throws on the move.  Heinicke IMO was at his best rolling in the pocket and working half the field. Pickett seems to thrive when he rolls in the pocket either by design or via his own scrambles.   We got one of the best run blocking teams in the NFL.  Good potential play action team which sets up well digs, crossers up the middle if the LB bites to stop the run.  Pickett seems good throwing to that 2nd level in between the numbers. 

 

Its tough for me to get over the 2 gloves, 8 inch hands when NFL scouts have concerns with guys with 9 inch hands let alone 8. 

 

I was rough on Daniel Jones, in retrospect too rough, I don't think he's tracking well but he's not a disaster either.  You liked him better than I did.  One of my issues with him in college that tracked to the pros is for a dude without special upside he really turned over the ball a lot, mostly via fumbles.   With his 8 inch hands and 28 fumbles in college, tough for me to just blow that off with Pickett.  And while I don't think he's reckless when it comes to his decisions, he throws it in harms way sometimes too much for my taste, in particular the NC game.

 

So in summary, can a QB with unprecedented small hands with fumbling issues, conquer that in the NFL?  his arm talent isn't special.  And i don't think his decision making is anything special.  

 

So like i said there are some things I really like.   the fact that he's IMO a good fit for this offense and has high intangibles for me is a big deal.  But the things I don't like really make me pause. My fear with him is does he end up like a Daniel Jones type of arc?  18-24 type of QB?  

Edited January 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

8 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

What would fields be worth in this years draft? Would he be top guy what would chicago give him up for if there coach goes in another direction. I could see them sending him to Seattle taking him and 2 first rounder for Wilson

I think Fields is still just a single 1. Chicago knows he'd be 1.1 in this draft but the new team would lose a year of control. A 1 and 3 I would give up right now for fields 

[Skinsinparadise]

52 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I agree both statements are true.  But I just don't hate the second plan like everyone else seems to.  And I think it's because I think Lloyd and Ridder are far better than people realize.  Ridder is one of the winningest QBs in CFB history.  There is something special in the sauce with him. You don't elevate an absolute nothing of a program like Cincinnati into the air of the CFP without having something special about you that causes winning.  And he's a good athlete too.  There is such a palpable Dak Prescott feel to him that is particularly strong for me because I've had to watch Dak blossom up close in our division.  I think we could follow largely the same plan with Ridder that the Cowboys did with Dak and be successful.

 

And Lloyd is a blue moon linebacker prospect.  If Ron picks him at 11, that's him getting his Luke Kuechly here.  You're talking about getting a future All Pro and that is always great usage of your draft picks.  Trubisky would just be an interesting lotto ticket and positive culture guy that you need to build a locker room.  I don't really see a downside to signing him unless he asks for too much money.

 

I think it takes more vision to see it, but that plan makes sense to me.  You win by getting great players and I think we will for sure have gotten one and maybe got another one.  I think it could be hitting two home runs with our first two picks and a really good start to the draft.

 

I share your man crush on Lloyd.  And i've not even watched him a ton.  But from what I've seen, he solves our Mike MLB issues.

 

As for Ridder, I just posted about how Pickett confounds me some.  But if i had to pick a dude who confuses me the most its Ridder.  I was arguably the lead cheerleader on this draft thread last year for Ridder.  I've watched Ridder a ton.   He marries two of my favorite things in a QB:  intangibles and mobility but that conflicts with the two things that have been the most reliable for me as for being right as to panning QBs which is:  decision making and accuracy. 

 

Last year I said among the 2nd round prospects, Ridder is the one I wanted the most.  Back when it looked like he was coming out in that draft.  Funny enough my mind hasn't changed much.  I do like Ridder in the context of being a 2nd round prospect.  But if I am Ron would i want to ride my franchise on him -- that's our guy?  i don't know about that.  He brings to me more wildcard to him than some of the others.  

 

I've spent enough time on Trubisky now to stick my neck out on a prediction which is that he won't be a bust with his next team ala Rosen and Darnold but instead a roller coaser with more bad than good but adding up to middiling.  But I don't really care which FA they sign at QB if its on the cheap.  Heck they could even sign Darnold for all i care considering the point is a cheap lottery ticket so I am not really picky about it. 

 

I got two issues with Ridder/Trubisky as for Ron.

 

A.  If Ron did this in the first year he was here, it would be fine.  Maybe even last year.  But this one?   I could deal with him not making a move last year even though I disagreed with the approach at the time.  but i said then, he better make up for it this year.  And if its harder to do this year, its on him.  He made that bed.

 

So a move like this in year 3 to me is a big move.  it spells this is my big bet.  And if this ends up his big bet, I know i am not the only fan who will be skeptical about its chances. 

 

So if it fails Ron deserves to be fired.  I've been his biggest defender arguably on the board.  But I'll turn on him the way I turned on Shanny if he botches this. 

 

B. We got some people on the board who are QB or bust.  You can't win in this league without one.  I have been close to that same viewpoint but not to the absolute extreme. Now count me in the extremist group.

 

I buy that you can have a one off season with a middling QB but i don't buy you can be a consistent winner without having the guy.  In short, I don't want a 17-22 QB.  I want to shoot higher.

 

 

 

Football might be the ultimate team sport. Increasingly, only one position matters.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/20/quarterbacks-nfl-playoff-success/

 

Even without covid cases and covid tests and covid protocols and keeping track of close contacts, an NFL season is impossibly complex. Thirty-two teams with 53-man rosters and 16-man practice squads overseen by coaching staffs that are closer to two dozen than one, each personnel decision a matter of public debate. What gets broken down weekly — cover-two or cover-three, empty backfields or jumbo packages, safety blitzes or linebackers in coverage — fills nearly endless hours on talk radio and television.

 

And what we’re left with as the second week of the playoffs approaches are quarterbacks who, according to ESPN’s Total Quarterback Ranking (QBR), are rated first, second, fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth, 11th and 13th in the NFL. Not a bum among ’em.

Put another way: Of the eight remaining quarterbacks, five were taken among the first 10 picks of their drafts, including three with the first overall pick. Put another way: The remaining quarterbacks include the MVPs from the 2017, 2018 and 2020 seasons — and almost certainly the MVP from this season as well.

Biggest questions for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs

Put another way: Still alive are the leader in completion percentage and yards per attempt (Joe Burrow), the leader in passing yards and touchdown passes (Tom Brady) and the player with the lowest interception percentage, the highest touchdown percentage and the top passer rating (Aaron Rodgers).

 

 

Put one more way: The NBA might be dismissed as a stars’ league in which the standard way to determine who’ll be the champ is to figure out who has LeBron, KD or Steph. But the NFL has equally specific parameters: To contend deep into the playoffs, you don’t need a Hall of Fame pass rusher or a receiver who runs the 40 in 4.3 seconds. What’s required is elite quarterback play. Turns out the ultimate team sport is distilled to a single position.

 

This analysis is neither head-scratching nor groundbreaking. Yet it is increasingly striking. The AFC championship game will feature either Burrow (first overall selection in the 2020 draft, 2021 leader in completion percentage and yards per attempt) or Ryan Tannehill (eighth overall pick in the 2012 draft, eighth in Total QBR this season) facing either Josh Allen (seventh pick in the 2018 draft, sixth in Total QBR) or Patrick Mahomes (MVP of the 2018 season and of Super Bowl LIV, fifth in Total QBR). The NFC’s version will be either Matthew Stafford (the first overall pick in the 2009 draft) or Tom Brady (the greatest to ever do it) against Rodgers (a three-time MVP who will probably win his fourth after leading the league in Total QBR) or Jimmy Garoppolo — arguably the lone outlier.

The composite picture: The resumes sparkle. In six telling statistical categories — completions, yards, completion percentage, touchdown passes, passer rating and Total QBR — the eight remaining quarterbacks rank in the top 10 in the league 33 of a potential 48 times. It’s stark, and it makes all the weekly haranguing during the season about whether Taylor Heinicke or Kyle Allen should start in Washington or whether a healthy Sam Darnold is better than a revived Cam Newton in Carolina seem silly and frivolous. Either you have one of These Guys or you don’t, and your season bristles with potential or is severely limited because of it.

 

Of course, this isn’t just a theme of the 2021 season. It is the design of the modern NFL. According to ProFootball-Reference.com, the last dozen seasons are the top 12 in league history in terms of average yards passing per game. The league protects passers in the rules so it gets passing in the product.

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Fields is my favorite of the middle options. Rookie deal, high talent, high ceiling.

 

Lose 1 year of rookie deal and who knows if Nagy has damages him like he has the other QBs he’s had in Chicago. 
 

But he’d be my QB1 in this class. He’s worth our first. Not sure how much more I’d be willing to pair with him, though. And it helps fix our mistake from last season when we should have traded up for him anyways.

 

But I don’t think he’ll be available. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Fields is my favorite of the middle options. Rookie deal, high talent, high ceiling.

 

Lose 1 year of rookie deal and who knows if Nagy has damages him like he has the other QBs he’s had in Chicago. 
 

But he’d be my QB1 in this class. He’s worth our first. Not sure how much more I’d be willing to pair with him, though. And it helps fix our mistake from last season when we should have traded up for him anyways.

 

But I don’t think he’ll be available. 

 

I talked about this in the QB thread, Keim's mention of this.

 

I could see the Bears shooting for Russell Wilson. They according to one report offered three firsts for Wilson last year.  Wilson wants to go there, too.

 

But wouldn't Seattle want Fields back in that trade?

 

If they didn't yeah am with you, i like Fields better than everyone in this class too. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Redskins 2021]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Fields is my favorite of the middle options. Rookie deal, high talent, high ceiling.

 

Lose 1 year of rookie deal and who knows if Nagy has damages him like he has the other QBs he’s had in Chicago. 
 

But he’d be my QB1 in this class. He’s worth our first. Not sure how much more I’d be willing to pair with him, though. And it helps fix our mistake from last season when we should have traded up for him anyways.

 

But I don’t think he’ll be available. 

I am not as high as everyone on fields the ability is there maybe it the Ohio state Qb thing. Would be best of this years rookie class. I could see him being available as a part of Wilson or Watson trade but unless it's those two I can't see new coach or Gm trading him.

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I talked about this in the QB thread, Keim's mention of this.

 

I could see the Bears shooting for Russell Wilson. They according to one report offered three firsts for Wilson last year.  Wilson wants to go there, too.

 

But wouldn't Seattle want Fields back in that trade?

 

If they didn't yeah am with you, i like Fields better than everyone in this class too. 

If they hire the old dolphins coach would they trade him for Watson.

[Est.1974]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Lose 1 year of rookie deal and who knows if Nagy has damages him like he has the other QBs he’s had in Chicago. 

And on the basis the Bears paid his 11mil SB you’d have the final 3 years of his rookie deal for only 7mil in total, before any consideration would need to be given to his 5th year option etc.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

I've been skeptical of him since he his first off-season, felt like he strung together way too many bad moves and personnel mistakes in his first two seasons to make the leap to true contention. 

 

I am as big of a Rivera guy as anyone here. Maybe even the biggest? 😀   To the extent, that I can even recall the arguments made against him where they now roll off my tongue including several made by you since I had to spend so much time defending him on so many fronts.  

 

I made the case on different threads a zillion times that if Dan fires Ron it would make this team an even biggger joke than it is now.  So i am definitely with you as the spirit of your point.   I definitely do not want Ron fired or clearly not anytime soon.

 

My point had nothing to do with anything but this simple point if you are going to build up a head of steam like he's been doing since the off season started about the QB spot -- you better follow that through with a serious move.  I dont take a 2nd-3rd round QB and a reclamation FA as a serious move -- that to me is playing against the odds.  and if he plays it like this and fails with that lotto ticket, he deserves a lot of scorn.   Maybe fired is too harsh.  But I will rip him for it, and that will be new terrain for me, because I just about always have his back. 

 

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

But I think the panicky fans are overreacting to a doomed season caused by a bull**** schedule, and I also think a lot of the fans who are starting to turn on the FO are the same ones who were super outspoken in support for Ron last off-season and built up unrealistic expectations for this year.

 

Not sure who you are talking about.  Some of the Ron homers I noticed have been consistent, certainly me included.  I don't doubt your point but I apparently I missed those posts.  I agree there is nothing about this season to make anyone turn on Ron.  I think he did a nice job. 

 

It was a tough schedule.  Injuries and COVID crashed the season.

 

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

IMO Rivera has enviable job stability here.  He's bungled and procrastinated choosing a direction the QB position for two years and his seat isn't hot at all. 

 

Some who cover the team think his seat can get hot if the QB doesn't look to be on the roster.  I got some doubts that its so.  Will see.

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

And ultimately that might be for the best because he's not incompetent and he's not going to abuse his power and stop caring about the job or stop competing.

 

 

100% agree.

 

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

He's going to make a decision at QB this year and we have the assets to get someone who can work.  We're going to pick a QB at 11 and it'll be the QB 1 or 2.  If I had to guess, it'll be Pickett or Willis.  And I think either of them start as rookies and give the team a big lift next season.

 

 

I'll have zero criticism, even if he gets it wrong, if he takes a QB early in the first round of this draft like that.

 

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

This year just sucked.  We were in it until we ran into an utterly bull**** gauntlet of playing teams on extended rest with a skeleton roster in December.  This team is pretty good and will get way better next season with health, a dynamic QB, and a reasonable schedule.

 

 

Agree.  but the QB is a key part of this.  QB has to be part of the equation IMO.

 

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Give us Willis or Pickett, give us a rookie playmaker with our next pick, give us a healthy defense and OL, and spend some damn cap money to bring in real vet quality and keep Scherff and let's go win 10 games next year.  This is very doable and I think Rivera can make it happen.

 

Everything you are pushing here, I am ok with it.

 

Almost every day on some thread, it seems like I am defending Ron's previous record in Carolina to the extent that I can recite his numbers without even looking them up anymore.  I've defended him on everything he's done.  My only criticism of Ron has been i'd have replaced Kyle Smith with another young up and comer type even though i was cool with the two Martys he's brought in.   Outside of that, pretty much nothing.  i've even defended his staff too -- who are an extension of Ron, including defending them to you.

 

Ron could only lose me if he does what Keim put forward as a possible Plan B which is take Ridder or Strong in the 2nd round and sign Trubisky.  And look even on that, he'd lose me only if it doesn't work.  I won't cry about it in real time.  IMHO taking that road is too much a roll of a dice for my taste.  Heck maybe I am wrong on Trubisky and he turns into a killer QB.  And or Ridder fixes his issues and becomes Dak as you like to compare him too.  My gut is it doesn't happen that way.  But as i like to say no scout has cracked the QB code, whomever does will become a billionaire, so lol i am not pretending i cracked the code. . So I could be wrong.  But i am not going to buy in that Ridder becomes Dak or Trubisky kills it until I actually see it happen.

 

And in short, i'd let that script play out for Ron but considering it would feel like a reach to me, if it doesn't work, it would feel like a firable offense.  And the main reason wouldn't even be getting it wrong but instead it would be not taking the problem IMO seriously enough.  Having said that, I doubt they end up doing it this way. 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

Even if every other thing that went wrong, still did, we're not having this Rons Tenure conversation if Fitz doesn't get hurt day one.

 

I can't understand why we traded for Allen and never saw him, despite the struggles at QB. I mean, that's Ron and Turners guy.

[RWJ]

15 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You've watched these Qbs or is this based on what you've read?

Watch a little bit of some of them but mostly what I have read.  Early in the process but from what I have seen at this point, Pickett shows me the most potential right now but again things will change as we get much closer to the draft. 

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Watch a little bit of some of them but mostly what I have read.  Early in the process but from what I have seen at this point, Pickett shows me the most potential right now but again things will change as we get much closer to the draft. 

 

I highly advise watching. I've never seen analysis on a draft class that is this varied... or that I disagree with more on almost every QB. Very few analysts have gotten it right in MY opinion so far. Nagy is close.

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Even if every other thing that went wrong, still did, we're not having this Rons Tenure conversation if Fitz doesn't get hurt day one.

 

I can't understand why we traded for Allen and never saw him, despite the struggles at QB. I mean, that's Ron and Turners guy.

 

While I disagreed not being more aggressive trading up in the last draft, I get the logic of how Ron played the last off season.

 

Fitz in recent years was a #15 kind of Qb with really high intangibles.  And he got him cheap.  

 

Unlike some others do, I don't blame Ron for Fitz and Samuel not contributing this season. It was just dumb bad luck.

 

I give Ron a pass for last season at QB.  But I give him no sympathy if the QB market this time doesn't materialize.  Part of the FO's job is to project/look ahead.

 

My gut is Ron pulls a rabbit out of his hat either for a veteran or takes a QB in the first round.

 

My only caveat is I hate Plan B if its Ridder/Strong with Trubisky.  I don't hate it in an arrogant way where I'd in advance with full confidence that it will fail.  but if it does fail IMO Rivera deserves criticism because IMO it would be him playing more of a lotto ticket than I'd like to fix a problem that has plagued this team for like 30 years.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise