Heinicke Hive: The LEGEND of Taylor Heinicke Thread

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 7/3/2021 at 5:00 PM, joeken24 said:

I have yet to witness Heineke not knowing where to go with ball. He has a great grasp of the offense and Devin has not been in the league long enough to trick a QB that know what they're doing. Heinike was able to manuever Todd Bowles' tricks. So to me Devin is irrelevant in that regard. He may have made some plays but he ain't causing a shutdown on his own. 

You're right.  Heineke has a mastery of the offense, kindof the way Colt McCoy had a mastery of Gruden's offense.

 

The problem with Heineke is 2 fold (interestingly, the same 2 problems Colt had): 

1. He can't stay healthy.  He's been hurt in every game he's played.  Now, he's put on 15 lbs, and maybe that changes.  But that's his history so far.

2. He would be in the bottom 1/3 of the league of arm strength.  And that DOES matter.  Mostly, it matters because you can NEVER be late on a throw.  If you're even a hair late, the ball won't get where it needs to when it needs to, and it will result in at best an incompletion, and worst an interception. If everything is running smoothly, and the ball is out on time all the time, it's less of an issue.  

 

But what arm strength does more than anything else is it gives you a little more margin for error.  The best example of this was Favre.  Favre was late on decisions A LOT.  But, he had such a good arm, he could make up the difference by just throwing the ball harder. At least some of the time. 

 

I like Heineke, but he's going to have to show he can stay healthy.  There's not much he can do about the second issue, it kindof is what it is.  But  think he has enough arm strength to at least be a competent fill-in starter for a while.  I just think it limits his ceiling. 

 

I want to see him compete with Fitz.  And if he out-performs him, I'd like to see him get the opportunity to start.  But the two things above are just facts, and he's going to have to overcome them. 

[Tedskins 21]

I got Taylor winning Super Bowl MVP.

[mistertim]

5 hours ago, Tedskins 21 said:

I got Taylor winning Super Bowl MVP.

 

I have him as OPOY and DPOY. He'll win the starting QB spot, throw for 72 TDs and -31 INTs and he'll also decide to play DE as well and will have 46.5 sacks and 67 forced fumbles.

[joeken24]

18 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

You're right.  Heineke has a mastery of the offense, kindof the way Colt McCoy had a mastery of Gruden's offense.

 

The problem with Heineke is 2 fold (interestingly, the same 2 problems Colt had): 

1. He can't stay healthy.  He's been hurt in every game he's played.  Now, he's put on 15 lbs, and maybe that changes.  But that's his history so far.

2. He would be in the bottom 1/3 of the league of arm strength.  And that DOES matter.  Mostly, it matters because you can NEVER be late on a throw.  If you're even a hair late, the ball won't get where it needs to when it needs to, and it will result in at best an incompletion, and worst an interception. If everything is running smoothly, and the ball is out on time all the time, it's less of an issue.  

 

But what arm strength does more than anything else is it gives you a little more margin for error.  The best example of this was Favre.  Favre was late on decisions A LOT.  But, he had such a good arm, he could make up the difference by just throwing the ball harder. At least some of the time. 

 

I like Heineke, but he's going to have to show he can stay healthy.  There's not much he can do about the second issue, it kindof is what it is.  But  think he has enough arm strength to at least be a competent fill-in starter for a while.  I just think it limits his ceiling. 

 

I want to see him compete with Fitz.  And if he out-performs him, I'd like to see him get the opportunity to start.  But the two things above are just facts, and he's going to have to overcome them. 

Santana Moss and Brandon Scherff couldn't/can't stay healthy. Santana started his career with the can't stay healthy narrative. Personally, if a guy is healthy, I can't concern myself with the past as it relates to what he can bring to the team right now. If that were the case, Scherff should be released immediately. 

 

I'd like to see solid evidence that his arm strength is in the bottom 1/3. But to that, while arm strength is nice, its a bit overrated (see DH). I'd rather see solid anticipation and the ability to throw guys open than a guy with arm strength. Now with that said, if we had a QB with both (ala Aaron Rogers), that would be fantastic. But Kurt Warner and Drew Brees comes to mind when I think about QB with a great grasp of an offense but without great arm strength. Fact is, he's got an NFL arm or he wouldn't be playing in the league.

[ODU AGGIE]

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I have him as OPOY and DPOY. He'll win the starting QB spot, throw for 72 TDs and -31 INTs and he'll also decide to play DE as well and will have 46.5 sacks and 67 forced fumbles.

FUNNY! But, hey, you neve know -- maybe you've hit on something here! 😂

[Voice_of_Reason]

9 hours ago, joeken24 said:

Santana Moss and Brandon Scherff couldn't/can't stay healthy. Santana started his career with the can't stay healthy narrative. Personally, if a guy is healthy, I can't concern myself with the past as it relates to what he can bring to the team right now. If that were the case, Scherff should be released immediately. 

 

I'd like to see solid evidence that his arm strength is in the bottom 1/3. But to that, while arm strength is nice, its a bit overrated (see DH). I'd rather see solid anticipation and the ability to throw guys open than a guy with arm strength. Now with that said, if we had a QB with both (ala Aaron Rogers), that would be fantastic. But Kurt Warner and Drew Brees comes to mind when I think about QB with a great grasp of an offense but without great arm strength. Fact is, he's got an NFL arm or he wouldn't be playing in the league.

The evidence of Heineke‘a arm strength is just looking at his passes.  The most obvious example was during mini-camp, he and Fitz were throwing the same exact deep out, at the same time, and you could just obviously see Fitz’s ball had less arc and more zip.

 

As I said, it’s not everything.  But it is limiting.  Also, the equation is not “if you have a great arm you will be great.” The NFL is littered with strong armed busts.  But it’s more “in order to be a top half of the league QB, you must posses arm strength or else you’ll be limited. 
 

And Brees had a pretty good arm.  It wasn’t Elway or Marino, but he had enough arm strength to fit balls into tight windows.  Until last year when he didn’t.  

[mistertim]

Yeah I wouldn't sleep on Brees's arm strength. It wasn't elite but it was good. It might have downhill a bit later, but the dude was 40 years old. Was he more known for his pinpoint accuracy? Yes. But he could sling it all over the field without any issues.

[XxSpearheadxX]

I never thought taylor looked like he was below average arm strength, but definitely average. Maybe I'm wrong. 

[bearrock]

On 7/16/2021 at 6:43 AM, mistertim said:

 

I have him as OPOY and DPOY. He'll win the starting QB spot, throw for 72 TDs and -31 INTs and he'll also decide to play DE as well and will have 46.5 sacks and 67 forced fumbles.

 

 I was with you till the force fumbles.  He's gonna struggle to top 50 FF.  Let's not be overly optimistic homers okay?

[Burgold]

On 7/17/2021 at 12:33 PM, XxSpearheadxX said:

I never thought taylor looked like he was below average arm strength, but definitely average. Maybe I'm wrong. 

It's hard to tell. Then again, Brady's rep was being great with timing and anticipation, but only adequate when it came to sheer arm strength. Mind you, when he went to Tampa where they had a long ball philosophy suddenly Brady's arm looked stronger.

 

So, who knows with Heinicke? His velocity looked fine to me. Such a small sample size.

[XxSpearheadxX]

1 minute ago, Borgold said:

His velocity looked fine to me. 

I agree. 

[mistertim]

50 minutes ago, Borgold said:

It's hard to tell. Then again, Brady's rep was being great with timing and anticipation, but only adequate when it came to sheer arm strength. Mind you, when he went to Tampa where they had a long ball philosophy suddenly Brady's arm looked stronger.

 

So, who knows with Heinicke? His velocity looked fine to me. Such a small sample size.

 

I think some of it might be because that was a knock on Heinicke coming out of college. Lack of size and lack of arm strength. I don't think we've seen enough from him to be able to say he has a "weak" arm. From what I could tell when watching him it seemed adequate. Nothing special certainly, but also not necessarily Pennington level. 

 

FWIW I was just comparing his highlights from when he was with Carolina to his WFT highlights and it looks like his arm has improved since then. It actually did look kinda weak in his Carolina preseason highlights but with WFT it looks like he has a little more zip.

Edited July 18, 2021 by mistertim

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 7/17/2021 at 12:33 PM, XxSpearheadxX said:

I never thought taylor looked like he was below average arm strength, but definitely average. Maybe I'm wrong. 

I can only note what I've seen and heard.  The evidence I've seen is when you watch him do the "2 at a time" drills with Fitz, you can just see the difference.  It's obvious.  There are a few clips floating around where you can see it.

 

Also, one of the beat reporters, I think it was Michael Phillips when he was on the WFT Pod, maybe Keim's pod, just threw out there nonchalantly "And Taylor has the weakest arm by far" and there was just general agreement.  

 

I also don't know how much it matters.  But it will matter more when teams get film on him, and the windows get tighter.  If you can't squeeze it in, then you're going to be in trouble. Either with passes knocked away or interceptions.  

 

Still, I'd like to see an honest to God competition with Fitz, and see who's better right now.  I think a weak arm is more of a "ceiling" type of thing than a "right now" type of thing.  

 

 

20 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I think some of it might be because that was a knock on Heinicke coming out of college. Lack of size and lack of arm strength. I don't think we've seen enough from him to be able to say he has a "weak" arm. From what I could tell when watching him it seemed adequate. Nothing special certainly, but also not necessarily Pennington level. 

 

FWIW I was just comparing his highlights from when he was with Carolina to his WFT highlights and it looks like his arm has improved since then. It actually did look kinda weak in his Carolina preseason highlights but with WFT it looks like he has a little more zip.

His arm strength could get better.  My personal opinion is that you have to at least have the ability to stretch the field horizontally and vertically, and if you can't, and you have to limit some of the routes because of arm talent, you are just giving the defense an advantage. 

 

Pennington is actually a great example.  Before his injury, he had JUST ENOUGH arm to be a viable, and at times, a really good NFL QB.  The one year he had with the Jets, he was pretty lights out.  Then he got hurt, and it took a little off of his throws, and all of a sudden, he couldn't complete anything.  

 

And it's not the deep balls which often are effected.  It's the quick throws to the outside, which need to have a lot of velocity, or else it's going the other way for 6.  That's where you can really see it. 

[mistertim]

38 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

His arm strength could get better.  My personal opinion is that you have to at least have the ability to stretch the field horizontally and vertically, and if you can't, and you have to limit some of the routes because of arm talent, you are just giving the defense an advantage. 

 

Pennington is actually a great example.  Before his injury, he had JUST ENOUGH arm to be a viable, and at times, a really good NFL QB.  The one year he had with the Jets, he was pretty lights out.  Then he got hurt, and it took a little off of his throws, and all of a sudden, he couldn't complete anything.  

 

And it's not the deep balls which often are effected.  It's the quick throws to the outside, which need to have a lot of velocity, or else it's going the other way for 6.  That's where you can really see it. 

 

Yeah it was actually the out and comeback routes where I noticed Heinicke's throws lacking some mustard I'd like to see...balls floated a little bit. Those routes with WFT were better. Nobody will mistake him for Favre or Mahomes but I think he has adequate arm strength for the pro game.

 

As you've noted, he'll need to make up for not having great arm strength with really good timing, but any QB without a cannon has to do that in the NFL.

[Voice_of_Reason]

22 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah it was actually the out and comeback routes where I noticed Heinicke's throws lacking some mustard I'd like to see...balls floated a little bit. Those routes with WFT were better. Nobody will mistake him for Favre or Mahomes but I think he has adequate arm strength for the pro game.

 

As you've noted, he'll need to make up for not having great arm strength with really good timing, but any QB without a cannon has to do that in the NFL.

Exactly.  

 

The thing is, lacking arm strength significantly reduces your margin of error.  If you ARE late to a throw, you've got to be aware what you can and cannot do.  Rodgers might be able to zip it in anyway.  Taylor might be best to look for the next option.

 

However, I really want to see him compete and get reps with the first team. You don't have to have a rocket arm to win big in the NFL. Maybe he is one of those guys.  He certainly seems to have the moxy.  

 

I know it was a million years ago, but Rich Gannon threw for 4,600 yards and got the raiders to the superbowl, and I'm not sure he could have thrown a ball through a pane of glass.  But he had 3 good weapons (Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Joey Porter), and a do-everything running back (Charlie Garner), and a well designed offense, and they just moved the ball in 5-10 yard chunks up and down the field.  

 

The year the Broncos won the SB, Peyton couldn't throw a ball 15 yards.  

 

Brad Johnson had a noodle arm, but he knew what he was doing.  

[petey hodge]

It’d be nice to see TH play more with the 1’s next week.

Edited August 14, 2021 by petey hodge

[Tedskins 21]

I’d like to see Young Taylor with the starters as well. The man will be starting a few games this year, I am convinced. 

[ODU AGGIE]

[Alexa]

taylor has a weak arm if you are comparing it to most of the guys in the NFL. but so what? joe montana kinda had a less than strong arm.  guess who has a really strong arm? haskins. taylor is better than haskins hands down.  there are plenty of strong armed guys that never made it cause they weren't good enough. meanwhile chase daniel is still cashing an NFL paycheck. i put arm talent down the list when it comes to whether you can be an effective NFL QB. 

[zCommander]

44 minutes ago, Alexa said:

taylor has a weak arm if you are comparing it to most of the guys in the NFL. but so what? joe montana kinda had a less than strong arm.  guess who has a really strong arm? haskins. taylor is better than haskins hands down.  there are plenty of strong armed guys that never made it cause they weren't good enough. meanwhile chase daniel is still cashing an NFL paycheck. i put arm talent down the list when it comes to whether you can be an effective NFL QB. 

 

Yup. Moving the chains 10-20 yards at a time wins you games and not "**** it I am going for it" like Sexy Rexy. 

[mistertim]

True, a huge arm isn't a prerequisite when it comes to being a successful NFL QB, but it certainly is a very nice thing to have because it increases margin of error, especially on potentially dangerous throws like outs where not having enough zip can many times be a pick 6. Without the big arm the anticipation has to be elite and/or the guy should be in a system that's more rhythm based an has shorter anticipation based concepts, like WCO. 

 

This is all especially true for guys who tend to be more along the gunslinger side. Sexy Rexy had the gunslinger mentality but not the arm and it got him into tons of trouble. Fitz has a decent but not great arm and his gunslinger mentality has gotten him into trouble as well.

 

Heinicke has a pretty mediocre arm and a gunslinger mentality. One thing I noticed a bit when watching Heinicke (and IIRC it's something that @Skinsinparadisenoted a few times when watching him at training camp) is that he tends to stare down his receivers too often. His ability to make off schedule plays makes up for that a little, but the staring guys down + mediocre arm + gunslinger mentality is a bit of a worrying combination.

[mudhog]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

 

Heinicke has a pretty mediocre arm and a gunslinger mentality. One thing I noticed a bit when watching Heinicke (and IIRC it's something that @Skinsinparadisenoted a few times when watching him at training camp) is that he tends to stare down his receivers too often. His ability to make off schedule plays makes up for that a little, but the staring guys down + mediocre arm + gunslinger mentality is a bit of a worrying combination.

I really didn't focus too much on TH during the game, but do you recall seeing him stare-down receivers in the Thursday game? Also, I have heard more than once from SIP that TH does this in practice, but in game situations, maybe not so much. After having watched his other live games, do you notice other instances where he does this? Honestly just curious. Thanks

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, mudhog said:

I really didn't focus too much on TH during the game, but do you recall seeing him stare-down receivers in the Thursday game? Also, I have heard more than once from SIP that TH does this in practice, but in game situations, maybe not so much. After having watched his other live games, do you notice other instances where he does this? Honestly just curious. Thanks

 

Good question. I did notice it last season, especially when I re-watched the games and focused on Heinicke. However, in fairness to him, it's quite possible that since he was so new they had him doing a lot of pre-determined reads, single reads, or half field reads. He did have experience with Turner though, so it's hard to say.

 

On Thursday I wasn't necessarily focused on that one thing...more on the rookies and the team overall. So I went back and re-watched his throws to give it a new look and a fair shake. Here are my (very amateur) notes. People like @Skinsinparadiseor @KDawg, who know way more football than I, would probably be better to truly break down the formations and sets and correct me if need be.

 

15 passes. First question answered is "Did he stare the guy down?" and a lot of the time the answer is that it's possible but not easy to say for sure because of the play design and not having a replay on Heinicke's eyes and head on many of them.

 

1    Maybe, but hard to tell. Half field read with all receivers bunched to one side
2    Hard to tell, scrambled within 2 seconds so probably n/a
3    No. Looked left then went to Brown deep right incomplete.
4    Yes. Completion to Bates but seemed to be watching him through the whole route. Still a good pass.
5    No. Looked deeper right then checked down right. Looked like half field read though.
6    n/a. Took the snap and quickly scrambled right a bit then short throw to McKissic. Designed?
7    Hard to tell. Play action, looked to the right then had a guy start to come free towards him and tossed up a contested ball to Hemingway, incomplete.
8    Probably n/a. Trips to the left, Brown 1v1 on the right. Probably designed to isolate Brown and go to him if he was single covered without safety help (safety was single high and very deep). He did seem to slightly manipulate the high safety with his eyes though, which was good.
9    Yes. completion to Sims Jr. Was watching him the whole way, but Sims found a nice hole in zone coverage and Heinicke hit him. Still a good route and throw.
10    No. looked deeper right then checked down quickly to Seals-Jones on the right.
11    Possibly, but it was slant to Brown so not necessarily applicable
12    No. Looked left then threw middle behind Carter, incomplete.
13    Possibly. Watched Seals-Jones through the whole route, but stacked trips to the right may have been designed to isolate Seals-Jones on the left. Incomplete, but still nice ball placement.
14    Possibly. Seemed to be looking at one read the whole way, then when that wasn't there he scrambled and heaved to Patterson (nice scooping catch by Patterson).
15    Probably n/a. Heavy formation with what looked like a 2 route read. Nothing there, scrambles a bit to the right, low incomplete Hemingway

 

Overall I'd say it wasn't something that was hugely concerning during his time on Thursday.

 

One thing I did notice was that Heinicke does at times seem to feel pressure too early and bail. It doesn't always end badly because he's pretty good when off-schedule. But it also does lead to the occasional throw off his back foot which isn't a good thing. It would also be good to see him stand in the pocket more and go through progressions.

Edited August 15, 2021 by mistertim

[The Rook]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[ODU AGGIE]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

15 passes. First question answered is "Did he stare the guy down?" and a lot of the time the answer is that it's possible but not easy to say for sure because of the play design and not having a replay on Heinicke's eyes and head on many of them.

 

1    Maybe, but hard to tell. Half field read with all receivers bunched to one side
2    Hard to tell, scrambled within 2 seconds so probably n/a
3    No. Looked left then went to Brown deep right incomplete.
4    Yes. Completion to Bates but seemed to be watching him through the whole route. Still a good pass.
5    No. Looked deeper right then checked down right. Looked like half field read though.
6    n/a. Took the snap and quickly scrambled right a bit then short throw to McKissic. Designed?
7    Hard to tell. Play action, looked to the right then had a guy start to come free towards him and tossed up a contested ball to Hemingway, incomplete.
8    Probably n/a. Trips to the left, Brown 1v1 on the right. Probably designed to isolate Brown and go to him if he was single covered without safety help (safety was single high and very deep). He did seem to slightly manipulate the high safety with his eyes though, which was good.
9    Yes. completion to Sims Jr. Was watching him the whole way, but Sims found a nice hole in zone coverage and Heinicke hit him. Still a good route and throw.
10    No. looked deeper right then checked down quickly to Seals-Jones on the right.
11    Possibly, but it was slant to Brown so not necessarily applicable
12    No. Looked left then threw middle behind Carter, incomplete.
13    Possibly. Watched Seals-Jones through the whole route, but stacked trips to the right may have been designed to isolate Seals-Jones on the left. Incomplete, but still nice ball placement.
14    Possibly. Seemed to be looking at one read the whole way, then when that wasn't there he scrambled and heaved to Patterson (nice scooping catch by Patterson).
15    Probably n/a. Heavy formation with what looked like a 2 route read. Nothing there, scrambles a bit to the right, low incomplete Hemingway

 

Quote

MT, I liked your review and analysis, so I decided to take a look for myself to see if we are in agreement. So here we go.

 

1.      No real argument with your comment. However, it appears to me that this was a designed play to go to Gibson from the get-go – one of those first pass of the game type of plays to get the QB jitters out of the way. With Carter and Brown bunched to the left, they clear out the flat for Gibson, and he is open for an easy game of throw and catch.

2.      Again, no argument. Gibson shifts out to the right, and it’s an empty backfield. Cosmi gets pushed back almost into Heinicke, and he bails out left and hits Brown, who made a nice catch on a ball thrown slightly behind him by Heinicke.

3.      Right on. Either the first read was to the left or it was a deliberate look off. Whichever, the left WR (Carter?) was covered like a blanket while Brown had a clear step or two on his defender. That’s the kind of throw Heinicke has to connect on, and I know he can – but he didn’t.

4.      I think maybe you missed this one. Sims and Carter were both split out to the left, and both ran a five-yard crossing pattern. You can see TH take a quick look to the left before keying in on Bates for the completion. Theismann even mentions him “looking around a little bit” in his commentary. One of the few times I thought Theismann was right.

5.      Yep, but I think he should have hit Carter on the right sideline. He was wide open and may have been able to get the first down.

6.      Yeah, I agree it was the designed play to get the first down.

7.      Yeah, the pressure took the question off the table. Theismann gave it the “homer” call talking about it being a 50-50 ball but to me it was pressured throw into double coverage. Brown was coming across the field from the left, and frankly, I would rather have seen Heinicke throw it away out of bounds ahead of Brown. To me, not a good decision out of Heinicke.

8.      You saw more there than I did. I do think the play was designed to go the Brown, and as I saw it, TH was on him all the way. Also, another play where he needs to make a better throw. Brown ran a nicely squared route, but he had to turn up field because the ball was out front and going by him. Theismann gave a hit to Brown on his route, but IMO undeserved.

9.      Once again, I think maybe you missed it on this one. Seals-Jones was on the right side and ran a post while Sims ran a dig behind him. Look carefully, and you will see TH look down the middle for S-J before looking more to the right and picking up Sims.

10.   Yep.

11.   Yep.

12.   Yeah, but threw it behind him dadgum it.

13.   Agree, but that would have been a TD if not for the no-call on interference.

14.   Agree, nice catch by Patterson after a solid off-schedule play by Heinicke.

15.   Yep. And as Theismann said, Heinicke should have pulled the trigger earlier.

 

All in all, I thought TH had a pretty good night, and I do not see a problem with him staring down the receivers. There was one decision that I was not wild about, and he missed two throws that he really needs to hit. Two of his completions were thrown slightly behind the receivers, but they saved him (as they should). That said, he did take the team on a 65-yard TD drive and hit 60% of his passes with no interceptions. Yep, a good night, but he needs to clean it up some and make it better -- something I absolutely know he can do.

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by ODU AGGIE