Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Est.1974]

A rookie QB sure would free up some cap money for a while. Damn that’s a tough one to get right though. Wonder if they perceive Allen good enough to placehold at #1 whilst a rookie is ready to go.

[tmandoug1]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

A rookie QB sure would free up some cap money for a while. Damn that’s a tough one to get right though. Wonder if they perceive Allen good enough to placehold at #1 whilst a rookie is ready to go.

Maybe even Heinicke, I guess we will will find out shortly.

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

Maybe even Heinicke, I guess we will will find out shortly.

I think even now he has a very good chance of being around as a #3 or #4 next year. That’ll be the limit though in my opinion.

[TheShredder]

Allen and Heinicke will be in training camp, but Alex Smith likely retires.  They'll bring a vet QB in for competitive reasons, but unless they pull the trigger on a high profile QB via trade I don't think they draft a QB too high and pick up a value QB 3rd or later.  There's going to be a lot of QBs hitting the streets and available that would be instantly better than any QB they could draft this year.  Personally I don't think this team wants to develop a rookie QB.  I think the defensive minded HC and DC want to plug-n-play the Offense to score enough points to win with a top defense. 

Edited January 7, 2021 by TheShredder

[Est.1974]

Prior to this calf injury for Smith, my preference had been Smith, Allen, Lance.

 

Drafting Lance almost has to combine with having a solid vet in place for 2021, and yeah it looks like Smith should be retiring. Be interesting to see what gives. 

[Warhead36]

I was against Lance before but now that I feel like we'll have a good team and system around him, I think he can develop and shine here. Obviously he'd have to sit and learn year 1, or just be a part time player while he learns, but I'd be okay with moving up to draft him(wouldn't give up a future 1st though).

[TheShredder]

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I was against Lance before but now that I feel like we'll have a good team and system around him, I think he can develop and shine here. Obviously he'd have to sit and learn year 1, or just be a part time player while he learns, but I'd be okay with moving up to draft him(wouldn't give up a future 1st though).

Some mocks have Lance going to NE.  I've never heard of Bill drafting a QB that high.  I think Bill would rather trade his 1st+ to get Jimmy G or better.  49'ers are rumored to be looking for options that include Wilson.  There's going to be some wheeling and dealing for sure. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

10. QB PHILIP RIVERS

The home stretch of Rivers’ career has been a roller coaster ride as he ranked 15th in PFF grades in 2015, 20th in 2016, ninth in 2017, sixth in 2018 and 18th in 2019. The 2020 season has seen him land right at 18th once again, as he’s mixed high-end games with multiple poor outings. The poor ones tend to bring up the questions about Rivers losing it and declining physically, but he’s been playing well despite less-than-stellar arm strength for a few years now. The issue is the tighter margin of error that Rivers has now compared to earlier in his career, but he gets by with solid accuracy and anticipation. Going to the Colts and playing in an indoor environment is a good strategy for late-career Rivers, and if he’s back in 2021, that may be the type of situation that works best at this point in his career.

Contract Analysis: Rivers ended an impressive 16-year run with the San Diego (when he arrived) and now Los Angeles Chargers, signing a one-year deal to potentially make a final Super Bowl run in 2020. The wheels have not completely fallen off for Rivers, but Father Time is certainly making his presence felt. Nevertheless, Rivers at worst provides an exceptional bridge quarterback to a young player if/when Indianapolis brings in a franchise quarterback of the future.

Prediction: Colts sign Rivers to another one-year, fully guaranteed $25 million contract.

 

 

8. QB RYAN FITZPATRICK

After one of the most volatile careers in recent history, Fitzpatrick has played the best football of his career since 2018 as he’s posted three of his four best PFF grades. His aggressiveness allows playmakers to create chunk plays down the field, but it also allows the defense to make just as many plays on the ball. Still, that style works well with the right supporting cast, and Fitzpatrick has actually done a fine job of maximizing his group of playmakers and subpar offensive line in Miami.

Contract Analysis: The Fitzmagic rolls on for another season, as the journeyman QB seems to age like a rich Bordeaux. Miami made it clear this past offseason that retaining Fitzpatrick was a priority, even with clear plans to draft Tua Tagovailoa. The 38-year-old had an $8 million base salary for 2020 with no other compensation left on his deal, and teams were reportedly sending trade offers. Miami’s decision to keep one of the great “bridge” quarterbacks around has been a win-win for both parties, and there will be several suitors for Fitzpatrick’s services again in 2021.

Prediction: Patriots sign Ryan Fitzpatrick for one-year, $10 million ($10 million APY): $10M total guaranteed/fully guaranteed at signing.

 

 

29. QB JAMEIS WINSTON

While Winston has been a backup this season, he still has starter potential. He’s graded between 67.0 and 74.0 in every year as a starter, but it’s a roller coaster of emotions that leads to that false sense of consistency. Winston’s volatility is legendary, but that’s the exact type of style that leads to high-end seasons if a team is willing to buy in. At worst, he’s one of the league’s best backups a year from now, but Winston’s aggressive playing style is worth another look to see if that top-end year is in there.

Contract Analysis: Winston was another free agent quarterback who lasted all the way through the 2020 offseason, even coming off a season in which he led the NFL in passing yards with 5,109. Volume stats are, of course, not everything, and Winston had 30 interceptions to go along with his 30 touchdowns, but the former No. 1 overall pick signed a deal with the New Orleans Saints for a base value of just $1.1 million. The 2019 passing leader is now sitting behind Taysom Hill, who had 78 passing yards against the Broncos this past Sunday.

Prediction: Colts sign Winston for one-year, $5 million.

 

 

34. QB CAM NEWTON

Outside of Newton’s 2015 MVP season in which he graded at 86.5 overall, he’s been a mid-level passer with the added upside of what he brings to the run game. Newton is a monster in short yardage, and an effective offense can be built around that skillset. However, the 2015 season is far more of an outlier than the norm at this point, and Newton’s accuracy and decision making limit his potential in the passing game. He has two top-10 finishes in PFF quarterback rankings in his 10 years in the league.

Contract Analysis: Newton was available for the entirety of the 2020 offseason until the Patriots swooped in at the last moment to offer him a one-year deal with a base value of just $1.75 million. Newton’s injuries were the primary obstacle keeping teams at bay, and although his 2020 campaign has been far from perfect, he’s third among all quarterbacks with 94 rushing attempts through Week 12 (trailing only Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray).

He may not be the MVP-caliber quarterback he once was, but he’s made it clear he still deserves to play in this league. There have been some rough outings, but given his circumstances (new team, truncated offseason, worst WR/TE group in the NFL, contracting COVID-19) he has also performed admirably for stretches of games.

Prediction: Bengals sign Newton to a fully guaranteed one-year, $5 million contract.

35. QB ANDY DALTON

Dalton finished 24th in PFF grade among quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks in 2020, and that’s about where he stands in today’s landscape of NFL signal-callers. He is one of the league’s best backups and can start if needed, but he disappointed with three PFF game grades under 55.0 for the Cowboys this season. Over the course of his career, Dalton has been a mid-tier starter who can produce with an excellent supporting cast, and that general premise still applies to him, albeit in a backup role.

Contract Analysis: Dalton signed a one-year, $3 million deal to return to the Dallas area and serve as the backup to Dak Prescott, but he was thrust into a starting role in the middle of Week 5. To make matters more interesting, future Hall of Fame left tackle Tyron Smith and starting right tackle La’el Collins were not available for a single snap with Dalton. He did his best to keep the ship afloat and certainly proved he could make a great backup for a team going forward, but odds are his days of starting in the NFL are very much over.

Prediction: Broncos sign Dalton for two years, $10 million: $8 million total guaranteed, $6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

 

51. QB TYROD TAYLOR

Penciled in as the Los Angeles Chargers’ starting quarterback this season, Tyrod Taylor lasted a game before a doctor inadvertently punctured his lung when administering a painkilling injection meant to help him battle through injured ribs. That thrust Justin Herbert into the lineup, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Taylor now hits free agency again, with the last signs of his best play even further in the rear-view mirror.

His one game this season saw him earn a 60.7 PFF game grade, and you have to go back to 2017 for his last solid stretch of starting play. That said, it’s hard to completely ignore three years where he was a very capable, if flawed, starter for the Bills. He’s likely a backup at this point — but a good one, which is valuable.

Contract Analysis: Taylor had an opportunity to start at the beginning of the season and demonstrate why he’s earned several top-of-market backup quarterback contracts, with the potential to earn another. A mistake by the Chargers’ medical staff vaulted Justin Herbert into a starting role, and he never looked back. If a team is looking for a good mentor to a young quarterback, it’s hard to argue with Taylor’s track record helping out Baker Mayfield and now Justin Herbert in consecutive stops.

Prediction: Football Team signs Taylor for two years, $10 million. $5 million total guaranteed, $5 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

 

66. QB MITCHELL TRUBISKY

Trubisky’s accuracy has been an issue in his four NFL seasons, and even his best statistical years have been marred by too many missed throws and stats that have been inflated by either scheme or playmakers. He’s graded between 62.0 and 66.4 in every season, with the statistical results fluctuating based on ecosystem and turnover luck. Trubisky does add value with his legs, but he’s likely relegated to a backup role once again. 

Contract Analysis: Trubisky will be hoping to follow in the footsteps of Marcus Mariota, another quarterback taken second overall. Mariota signed a two-year, $17.6 million deal with the Las Vegas Raiders that was really a one-year, $7.5 million flier loaded with incentives. It takes only one suitor for a quarterback to find a nice contract, and perhaps there are teams out there that see a worthy reclamation project in Trubisky.

Prediction: Bears sign Trubisky for two years, $15 million (7.5M APY): $8.5 million total guaranteed/fully guaranteed at signing.

 

 

69. QB JACOBY BRISSETT

Brissett has PFF grades of 62.4 in 2017 and 59.2 in 2019 as a starter, showing that he’s likely a high-end backup. Stylistically, Brissett has landed more on the game manager end of the spectrum, taking good care of the ball but also having a low percentage of big-time throws. When adding some rushing value to the mix, it’s clear that Brissett can be called upon to win a few games, but he hasn’t looked like a quarterback who is capable of carrying a team.

Contract Analysis: Brissett has now had the chance to back up and learn from both Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, so whenever he does get another chance to start somewhere, he should be confident and comfortable in his expansive knowledge of the game. He most likely ends up as a respected journeyman quarterback who can now become a teacher to younger signal-callers. There should still be a decent market for him in that role, similar to that of Case Keenum and Tyrod Taylor.

Prediction: Chargers sign Brissett for two years, $14 million: $8M total guaranteed, $6M fully guaranteed at signing.

[steven11]

I doubt Lance falls to us, but Mac Jones might be worth looking at.

If the Cowboys let Dak go is there any interest there?

sigh… if only the iggles would release Wentz.

[KillBill26]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Prior to this calf injury for Smith, my preference had been Smith, Allen, Lance.

 

Drafting Lance almost has to combine with having a solid vet in place for 2021, and yeah it looks like Smith should be retiring. Be interesting to see what gives. 

I'm in same boat as you, in that my preference was smith / allen / rc (I'm not particularly high on lance), but with smiths nagging calf injury caused by his prior injury, I think it would be in both parties best interests if he retires.

 

I can't remember an off-season with this many potential options at qb, either via FA, trade, or draft. And we've needed a qb for most of my life, so I seem to be looking into qb options almost annually.  

[Koolblue13]

Hooker on a 2mil  prove it deal? That would be awesome. Solid true FS for JDR.

[frontline205]

Reports are Deshaun Watson requested a trade... he probably cost too much and would require like 2 first, but apparently he’s not happy in Houston

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[tmandoug1]

Can't afford Watson unless he actually wants to be here.......move on.

[Koolblue13]

I would call him demanding a trade a bit diva-ish, but the way that team has been run in recent years is horrific.

[MisterPinstripe]

I'd give up a whole gob to get Watson. 

[RWJ]

2 hours ago, steven11 said:

I doubt Lance falls to us, but Mac Jones might be worth looking at.

If the Cowboys let Dak go is there any interest there?

sigh… if only the iggles would release Wentz.

I think Mac is the target at #19 if Smith is still with us and is named the new GM.  Mac could shoot up draft boards and I expect he scorches Ohio St. offensively.  Just a guess.  Lance could then be there if Mac moves up the boards.  I am a Mac Jones through and through and hope he's there at #19 for the chance to draft him. 

[PartyPosse]

45 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I would call him demanding a trade a bit diva-ish, but the way that team has been run in recent years is horrific.

I don’t know if he even demanded a trade but his anger seems certainly justified if he was told he’d be in the mix and the know regarding who gets hired.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

This is where the NFL owners started their downfall as far as management and team decisions are concerned when they started showing favoritism towards their star player saying they would be part of the hiring part of the next GM or HC.  It all changed when it happened the first time.  Been the same since.  The proof in is the text.  We've seen it before.   Times are a changing.  Nothing like this happen year ago.  Guess I'm and old man in a new day in age. 

[steven11]

The only way we'd get Watson is if we would use cap space to take some of those awful contracts like Merciluss in addition to draft capital.

It’s doubtful they would send him here anyway, probably going to another QB hell team that is more glamorous like Denver or Chicago.

[Number 44]

13 minutes ago, steven11 said:

probably going to another QB hell team that is more glamorous like Denver or Chicago.

You ever been in Denver or Chicago in January?

[Anselmheifer]

We aren't getting Watson. But all of you people that are saying, "I wouldn't trade three 1sts for Watson!!!!!!! Because...draft picks!" are crazy. Deshaun Watson and a FA WR, and our defense and we are NFC favorites every year. Houston said their starting offer would be three 1sts and three 2nds, and a player. 

 

Honestly, people here over value draft picks, probably because of how flippantly cerrato traded them. Do you think that Pittsburgh regrets trading for Minkah? Buffalo for Diggs? A team that is ready to make the leap can absolutely improve their situation by trading draft assets for veterans. 

[HoggLife]

2 hours ago, frontline205 said:

Reports are Deshaun Watson requested a trade... he probably cost too much and would require like 2 first, but apparently he’s not happy in Houston

Two 1st would be a steal for Watson 

[Number 44]

3 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Houston said their starting offer would be three 1sts and three 2nds, and a player. 

You're going to have to provide a link on that one.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Number 44

[HoggLife]

2 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

We aren't getting Watson. But all of you people that are saying, "I wouldn't trade three 1sts for Watson!!!!!!! Because...draft picks!" are crazy. Deshaun Watson and a FA WR, and our defense and we are NFC favorites every year. Houston said their starting offer would be three 1sts and three 2nds, and a player. 

 

Honestly, people here over value draft picks, probably because of how flippantly cerrato traded them. Do you think that Pittsburgh regrets trading for Minkah? Buffalo for Diggs? A team that is ready to make the leap can absolutely improve their situation by trading draft assets for veterans. 

I'd be okay with three 1st, a 2nd and Ion