2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[RWJ]

Just now, Burgundy Yoda said:

 

Been telling you all I wouldn't be surprised if we went CB, Farley was CB #1 in this draft for many before his surgery, teams are assessing the risk now I'm sure but we definitely seem interested. 

 

Might be ideal if Landon moves to WLB or can essentially play where JOK would have played on this defense. 

Great player but his back is a BIG red flag for me.  

[Burgundy Yoda]

3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Great player but his back is a BIG red flag for me.  

If Arizona goes Farley, Horn or Surtain could drop to us potentially, which would be fine by me as well. 

[Skinsinparadise]

McShay

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/insider/story/_/id/31317771/nfl-draft-buzz-2021-everything-todd-mcshay-hearing-top-prospects-qbs-team-strategies-early-picks

 

Almost all -- not all -- teams have Zach Wilson at No. 2. Then it is all over the board for Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Justin Fields. That doesn't just mean from a team-versus-team standpoint. There are differing opinions within each organization. I've heard that multiple teams have split decisions on rankings, with the team owner preferring one of them, the GM liking another, the head coach leaning another direction and so on. And I've heard all three of Jones, Lance and Fields mentioned as at least a team's No. 3 quarterback in the class.

 

What about beyond those five? Two people from around the league indicated a growing interest in Stanford's Davis Mills. One even said that if there is a surprise pick in Round 1, it could be Mills. But it's clear that there is more love for Mills than many people thought, which is surprising for a guy who only started 11 games in college.

I also was told by a GM that Mills, Kyle Trask (Florida) and Kellen Mond (Texas A&M) are all very likely to come off the board by the end of Round 2. The teams that he has heard with interest in at least one of the trio include Washington, Chicago, New England and potentially Denver, if it doesn't take a QB at No. 9 overall.

Other player buzz

• Leaguewide, teams seem to agree that Travis Etienne, Najee Harris and Javonte Williams (North Carolina) are the top three running backs, in some order, and then there is a significant drop-off. Those three could all go in the later parts of Round 1 or early on Day 2, though NFL teams have those three RBs ranked in different ways. Some have Etienne No. 1 at the position. Some are more interested in Harris' game. And at least one team has Williams ahead of Harris, meaning Williams isn't the de facto third guy.

• Three GMs said they are convinced that offensive linemen are going to come off board quicker than earlier thought. Two offensive tackles who have been mentioned as guys who could go higher than expected: Notre Dame's Liam Eichenberg might sneak into Round 1, and North Dakota State's Dillon Radunz could be off the board not long after.

• One name that keeps coming up and is getting a wide variety of reviews is Texas tackle/guard Samuel Cosmi. Some teams are fixating on the measurables and potential, and they are thinking he is worthy of a pick early in Round 2. Others are looking more closely at the tape and see him as a third-rounder.

San Francisco 49ers (No. 3)

The 49ers moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 with a massive trade at the end of March, which all but locked them into a QB in Round 1. Teams don't salvage their futures and jump nine spots into the top five to do anything else. But which quarterback will it be?

I'm told that many in the 49ers' personnel department have pushed for North Dakota State QB Trey Lance but that coach Kyle Shanahan wants to draft Alabama's Mac Jones. One person I spoke to even heard that Shanahan might "acquiesce" to the scouting department on the selection, but others have said that seems unlikely. At this time of year, there is a lot of seed planting in the rumor mill, and it could certainly be the case here.

What we do know is the first three picks will be quarterbacks, and it appears more than likely that Jones will be that No. 3 selection.

 

Carolina Panthers (No. 😎

OK, now it gets interesting. The direction of this pick could end up surprising a lot of people, and I've heard a few different directions it could go. The first might be the most eyebrow-raising.

One GM and one scout -- neither affiliated with the Panthers -- told me that they've heard the Panthers could be lurking at No. 8 in the quarterback market. Yes, even after trading for Sam Darnold earlier this month, and yes, with Teddy Bridgewater also still on the roster as competition. Ohio State's Justin Fields' name was tossed around as the guy in mind.

The thinking is Darnold has a cap hit south of $5 million for 2021 -- extremely cheap for a starter -- and the Panthers could see how he plays this season and then go from there. If Darnold shines, they have a good problem: having to decide which QB to build around and which to attempt to move. If he doesn't, they already have a young replacement with potential on the roster. It's also worth pointing out Carolina doesn't have to pick up Darnold's fifth-year option for 2022 until after the draft, leaving it more flexibility.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 24)

This isn't exactly new information, but one evaluator from outside the Pittsburgh organization said there's buzz around running back and offensive line here, with Alabama ball carrier Najee Harris getting some whispers as the best fit.

---

Baltimore Ravens (Nos. 27, 31)

The Ravens now have a pair of selections late in Round 1, and I'm told they are definitely targeting a wide receiver with one of them. I'd be very surprised if a WR isn't one of those two picks. The other one could address the edge rush or offensive tackle.

---

Buffalo Bills (No. 30)

One thing I've heard from a lot of people is Clemson's Travis Etienne has become the most coveted running back in the class -- ahead of Najee Harris -- because of the different element he brings with his explosive home run ability. And a GM whom I spoke with said he heard Buffalo might be tempted to move up from No. 30 into the early 20s to land Etienne. That'd put the Bills ahead of the Steelers, Jaguars, Jets and other teams that could think about an RB in the later segment of Day 1.

But a move up eight or nine spots for a running back in Round 1 would be really costly. It'd be one of the biggest surprises of the entire night.

[Warhead36]

7 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

If Arizona goes Farley, Horn or Surtain could drop to us potentially, which would be fine by me as well. 

I think Dallas takes Surtain and Philly takes Horn.

[Burgundy Yoda]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think Dallas takes Surtain and Philly takes Horn.

I heard Dallas is split and their personnel side likes Horn. I wouldn't be surprised if Philly went CB but they have so many needs. They definitely aren't going LB, Howie has never valued that position. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I heard Dallas is split and their personnel side likes Horn. I wouldn't be surprised if Philly went CB but they have so many needs. They definitely aren't going LB, Howie has never valued that position. 

Yeah I've heard that too. I think Horn is more physically gifted and has more upside but plays EXTREMELY physically which means he's gonna need to be coached up, but he fits new D-Coord Quinn's scheme and what he wants in his CBs. 

 

Surtain is just so clean and polished as a prospect though. He just has that look and feel of a 10 year starter who makes a few Pro Bowls.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

Rank

15

3

 

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Notre Dame · LB · Junior (RS)

Owusu-Koramoah starred as an athletic hybrid defender for the Fighting Irish. He can play Will linebacker, safety or even cover in the slot. He's very fluid and twitchy to mirror tight ends, backs or slot receivers. He's very aware as a zone dropper and he's an explosive blitzer off the edge. He is quick to key/read before dipping under blocks on the front side against the run. He flashes the ability to use his length to punch off blockers, but he is much more effective beating them to spots. He has big-time speed to chase from the back side. He needs to improve his consistency as a tackler in space, though, as he has too many fly-by misses. He brings outstanding leadership to the defense. Overall, Owusu-Koramoah might lack ideal size/bulk, but he's built for a pass-happy NFL.

Rank

16

3

 

Trevon Moehrig

TCU · S · Junior

Moehrig has adequate size, but excellent versatility and instincts. He can play in the deep post or cover in the slot. He is a smooth, fluid mover in man coverage underneath. He also possesses ideal anticipation and range from the back end. He has the ability to consistently match patterns and position himself for plays on the ball. The former TCU star does need to improve his finishing ability, having dropped a couple interceptions in the games I studied. He takes quality angles in run support and is a reliable, low tackler. Overall, Moehrig offers a complete skill set at the position. He will provide his defensive coordinator with options, which is exactly what's desired in 2021.

 

Rank

19

1

 

Travis Etienne

Clemson · RB · Senior

Etienne is a compact, muscled-up running back with outstanding burst and balance. He's at his best as a one-cut runner, putting his foot in the ground and exploding up the field. He isn't overly elusive in the hole, but he hits it at full speed and absorbs contact while keeping his balance. He has plenty of speed to capture the edge on outside runs. He rarely loses a foot race once he gets into the open field. He is very valuable in the passing game, too. He has a great sense of timing and spacing in the screen game. He also possesses the ability to run away from linebackers on seams and angle routes. He has even flashed the ability to split out wide and run double moves. He improved in pass protection in 2020. Etienne doesn't have elite vision or wiggle, but his speed is real, and it's spectacular when given a runway.

 

Rank

20

1

 

Najee Harris

Alabama · RB · Senior

Harris is a big, smooth running back who posted outstanding production during his Alabama career. He is very patient to let holes develop before sliding through the line of scrimmage on inside runs. He has tremendous contact balance, routinely absorbing a hit and finishing runs. He doesn't have the juice to really stretch to the boundary on outside runs, preferring to quickly get his shoulders squared and turn upfield. He is sneaky elusive in space, though, and can drop his shoulder to run through tacklers. He's an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield. He runs clean routes and has the ability to high-point the ball down the field. He's aware and dependable in pass protection. Overall, Harris isn't a home-run hitter, but he's a very skilled runner with excellent value in the passing game. I see similarities to former Chicago Bears star Matt Forte when he was coming out of college.

 

Rank

23

1

 

Jamin Davis

Kentucky · LB · Junior (RS)

Davis is a tall and lanky off-the-ball linebacker. He has excellent eyes to key, read, fill and finish. He uses his quickness to beat blockers to spots. He is much better working around blocks than taking them on, but he has outstanding lateral range, and his eyes give him a jump-start. He has stopping power as a tackler in the hole, and he really excels against the pass. He has shown the ability to carry TEs down the seam as well as mirror RBs on wheel routes (SEE: Vanderbilt game). He is instinctive as a zone dropper, picking off three passes in 2020, including an 85-yard pick-six versus Tennessee. I wish he was allowed to blitz more often, because he has the traits to excel in that department. Overall, Davis lacks some strength to bang versus blockers, but his speed and playmaking ability jump off the screen. He should be a Day 1, three-down impact player at the next level.

Rank

24

1

 

Zaven Collins

Tulsa · LB · Junior (RS)

Collins is an enormous off-ball linebacker. He played outside in Tulsa's 3-3-5 alignment. He has the length and bulk to take on guards and free himself for tackles against the run. He builds speed laterally, displaying tremendous range. He has average short-area quickness, but he is still a dependable tackler in space. He is outstanding in pass coverage, using his instincts to clog throwing lanes. He is more than capable of covering tight ends all over the field. He rushed off the edge on occasion and is good with his hands to defeat tight ends and running backs. You can get a sense of his athleticism if you watch his 96-yard pick-six to defeat Tulane in overtime. Overall, Collins is a unique player because of his size/speed combination, and I believe he'll make an immediate impact at the next level.

Rank

25

1

 

Javonte Williams

North Carolina · RB · Junior

Williams is a thick, compact running back with outstanding vision, power and quickness. He is quick to find/attack the hole with a bounce in his step on inside runs. He has tremendous lateral quickness to make defenders miss in tight quarters. He runs with a low pad level and accelerates through contact. Williams has the burst to get the edge on outside runs and he's elusive once he gets into the open field. He is effective as a checkdown option in the passing game and flashes some route polish on angle routes in the middle of the field. He has reliable hands, although you will see some double catches. He is aware in pass protection and can squat and absorb blitzers. Overall, Williams is a complete player and could emerge as the best running back in the 2021 class.

Rank

26

12

 

Elijah Moore

Mississippi · WR · Junior

Moore is an undersized wideout with outstanding versatility, quickness and toughness. He has experience lining up outside, in the slot and in the backfield. He has excellent quickness in his release and is clean/crisp at the top of routes. He gets a lot of quick hitters, and he's very elusive after the catch. He also makes some huge plays over the top, tracking the ball naturally and showing reliable hands. He is effective when used as a runner out of the backfield, too. He hits the hole full-go and can make defenders miss. Overall, Moore lacks size, but he'll be a stud in the slot and can also help in the return game.

 

[Dexter]

11 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Great player but his back is a BIG red flag for me.  

Jonathan Allen had the shoulder issue a few years back.  I anticipate we get another steal in the draft as long as his medical turns out to be okay.

 

It would be awesome to have Fuller back in the slot or even let him transition to FS.  Farley and Williams Jackson locking down the outside would be pretty wild.

[Burgundy Yoda]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I've heard that too. I think Horn is more physically gifted and has more upside but plays EXTREMELY physically which means he's gonna need to be coached up, but he fits new D-Coord Quinn's scheme and what he wants in his CBs. 

 

Surtain is just so clean and polished as a prospect though. He just has that look and feel of a 10 year starter who makes a few Pro Bowls.

I agree with your take on Horn, he does tend to overdo it with the physicality, but I'd much rather a CB be like that than passive. Surtain has gotten that world-class CB teachings from Saban. I read something the other day that said some NFL coaches around the league think Alabama CBs are coached up almost too well and they struggle away from Saban. Obviously, Humphrey and potentially Diggs might be an argument against this but I thought it was interesting. 

[DWinzit]

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I started listening to Standig's podcast.  He's IMO typically the 2nd most plugged in beat guy.  He's also mentioning Moehrig.   Whether they take them or not who knows.  But I think we can say with assurance that Koramoah and Moehrig are on the table.  Both Keim and Standig have mentioned Jamin Davis from time to time too as a fit.

 

Both Standig and Keim have mentioned not seeing Zaven Collins as a fit here. 

 

the theme on Moehrig though seems to be in a trade down

I find all of your Standig and Keim posts as good measuring points for the teams interest.

 

Regarding LB's the way I read it is barring an early LB run they:

Trade back from 19 and take JOK or Davis

Take Davis, Cox and Werner at 51

Hope one of the above lasts until the 3rd round

[JoggingGod]

It’s so depressing talking about guys like JOK and AVT when we have a gaping hole at the most important position

[method man]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for rumors evolving over time, FS continues to get more mentions.  Cisco who I like and I know @Anselmheifer likes would be interesting.  Big time ball hawk.  

 

 

 

 

 

A big tell on that front is that they are playing the waiting game with Tre Boston. That tells me that they expect to make a move for a FS Day 1 or Day 2 (I wouldn't think you'd avoid signing Boston just because you pick someone up in Day 3)

[Burgold]

12 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

It’s so depressing talking about guys like JOK and AVT when we have a gaping hole at the most important position

You’re that concerned about long snapper?

[Dark Acre]

13 hours ago, mhd24 said:

Yeah, Denver can trade up (probably costs their 3rd) and get Fields/Lance at 7 (assuming 1-3 is Lawrence-Wilson-Jones).  Chicago sounds more desperate than we are (their FO is on the hot seat).  I can see a team like Carolina preferring to trade down with Chicago vs us because they'd think they will have a worse record next year.  

 

 

Because they are cap committed to Ryan for at least two years.  The most important trait about a rookie QB is their low salary.  They'd be wasting 2 years of cheap QB play.  Pitts is a unicorn prospect and I'd take him vs the 4th qb in this draft.

So they'll be in just as good, or better, position to get their franchise QB in 2 years than they'll be now, getting QB 4 in this year's stacked class, and letting him "redshirt" under Matt Ryan for 2 years.  Got it.

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, method man said:

 

A big tell on that front is that they are playing the waiting game with Tre Boston. That tells me that they expect to make a move for a FS Day 1 or Day 2 (I wouldn't think you'd avoid signing Boston just because you pick someone up in Day 3)

 

Looks like no doubt FS has heated up as for the rumorville as we've gotten closer.  But also the idea that they'd play things Zen like since they are picking late so they have to go with the flow and clearly they can't hit every position of need in this draft.

 

I forgot about this tidbit which I posted at the time from Matt Miller.  Then we got Peter Schrager in his first mock (he's plugged in) giving us Moehrig.  Seems like building smoke around Moehrig.  However, it seems to be in the context of a trade down.  If so who knows if they can successfully trade down or if they did that no other team takes him first.

 

The interesting thing for me if its Moehrig is I watched him not long after rewatching the Tampa playoff game.  And my thought watching Moehrig was he would be the perfect guy to help shut down the big type of passing plays being made against this team.  Our safeties for years often seem to be a beat behind the play.  Moehrig seems to be so on top of what the opponent's offense is trying to do and anticipates so well.  

 

 

[@DCGoldPants]

Love this week because its fun trying to guess who's mock draft from yesterday is somebody responding to today by being different. "Oh, Washington gets lucky and Darrisaw falls to them in this guys CBS draft, well, I'm going to have Parsons fall to them. Or maybe I move up to get this guy..... that'll be cool" Meanwhile, who knows who is leaking what misinformation from different teams now?

 

 

[Koolblue13]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK noted.  But then I deserve bragging rights for hyping Mac including as a possibility at 19 before it was cool and became this universal top half of the first round prospect.  I have probably posed more pro Mac Jones propaganda during the college season than any player aside from Kyle Pitts.  

 

But yeah he wouldn't be the QB I'd put money on if i had to pick among those 3.  I'd go Fields.  Will see.  My prediction is Mac ends up a good QB 8-14 type.  Maybe like a Matt Ryan but not elite.  Will see. 

Deal. I get most of my opinion from your posts any way

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

10 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Deal. I get most of my opinion from your posts any way

 

I've been on this lonely ride with you about drafting a FS and TE early for a long time.  I am more about TE than FS but yeah I've not been a fan of the mid-round-low round efforts at the FS spot.

 

Judging by draft rumors, that ride might end finally this draft.  don't want to jinx it though. 

 

Moehrig isn't my top want but if they traded down, I'd like it a lot.  It also seems like other FS are also on their radar.    Looks like they are poking at TE, too.  And Rivera pretty much admitted they would have taken Trautman in the last draft but he was taken before their pick.

 

The draught might be over at those spots.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Someone should take notes in a word document of ALL these rumors as we lead up to the draft and then try and decipher afterwards which ones were accurate as best we can tell. Obviously it will be hard to tell if Atlanta "covets" Lance at #4 if he goes #3. But it will still be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

 

And man, I'm sure Kyle Shanahan is cool with Trey Lance. I'm sure he loves what he could become, but if his guy is Mac Jones and he gets pushed by the front office to draft Lance I would be pretty annoyed if I were him based on what went down with the RG3 situation too.

[JoggingGod]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Do you know when this excerpt was from?

[Skinsinparadise]

The comment below from Matt Miller I've seen made by some others too.  I haven't dived deep into 2022 to give my own take on that.  But I do know i like some of the top 10 type of players a lot for 2022. 

 

 

Just now, JoggingGod said:

Do you know when this excerpt was from?

 

4/20

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

Others linked to this, but I think it's worth calling out. I think this time last year I had actually advocated for the WFT looking to trade our 2021 1st and 2nd round picks to get players in the 2020 draft since we didn't have a pick between Chase Young and our 3rd. Mostly for this reason ... at the time it seemed like the NFL season could/would happen but that it might be shortened, and it might make evaluating players pretty tough even if the college season did get played, with all the opt outs, etc.

 

I don't think it's anywhere near as dramatic as I thought it could be this time last year, but that's one of the reasons why I thought it might make sense to trade this years 1st and 2nd to get a 2nd and 3rd in last year's draft.

[Skinsinparadise]

Rapoport just on.  He said the 49ers are cramming on Jones/Lance and seemed to eliminate Fields.  They won't leak their intentions so we likely find out on draft day not before that.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Of course, there's got to be someone WILLING to trade up with you. But I am of the mindset that if we are on the clock at #19 and Darrisaw is gone, the WRs are gone ... I'd much rather trade back and accumulate picks either this or next year than reach for a plyer we might be having a tough time grading. Of course, you could "win" out by drafting Farley at #19, a Top 10 talent without his injuries, banking on that being a superstar long term. But I would prefer to trade back and even take lesser value to either get more picks/choices or some picks next year.

 

If Buffalo really wants to trade up for Etienne in the early 20's ... I'd consider taking 30 and a 4th + a 3rd next year ... something along those lines. I think there's a limit to how far you trade back and I do think we don't have too many holes to fill, so there's not a lot of sense in accumulating 12+ picks, so I think some combination of adding 3rd or 4th this year and a pick next year would be ideal. I'll be pretty bummed out if we stay at #19 and draft Moehrig.

 

I also wonder which way this line of thinking could go when weighing options for a trade-up. Does someone like Detroit put a priority on a 2022 1st over, say, a 2021 2nd? I would guess, yes. Would Detroit take #19 ... and a 2022 1st and 3rd and let us keep all other picks this year? Would WE do that, knowing that next year's picks might have a slightly higher hit rate? Or would we feel confident getting Fields at #7 and having a full slate of 2-3-3-4-5 to fill out the other holes on the roster?