2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[mhd24]

33 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I wonder if there are any interesting and toolsy OL prospects who busted with their previous teams that we could bring in as a reclamation prospect?  I can't think of any names off the top of my head.  I'm looking through the 2017-2019 classes and it looks like 2017 was a bad OL class and all of the good OL prospects from '18 and '19 pretty much ended up solidifying themselves with their teams.

 

 

Yeah, Bolles was a major bust until this year.  The Broncos declined his option, but ended up extending him after the lightbulb went on.  Jaguars fans have soured on Cam Robinson.  Lamp has been horrible with the Chargers.  Ditto Feeney.  Dawkins was a major steal by the Bills.  Moton is a FA, but I expect Carolina to do everything they can to keep him.   

[Going Commando]

32 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I'm not necessarily in favor of this because of the injury history, but on talent alone, Caleb Farley would look sick behind our DL and would really help, both in terms of turnovers, and in coverage. 

I think the draft is probably lining up for us to take an OT. We will be out of range for the top WR's, TE, and QB's. I think there will be some natural choices at OT in picks 11-17 or so. 

 

Yeah I'm of the same mind on Farley.  Back injuries spook me, but the healthy version of him would be a weapon behind this defensive line.  If we pick at 19 or lower, then I'd probably draft him.  That feels like a good value range.  Guys who look like studs at VT tend to translate to the NFL, especially on defense.

 

If we get 19, I think there will still be WRs on the board though.  This class looks really good to me, and I think at least one of the Alabama receivers or Bateman or Moore could still be there at 19.  I think I'd rather draft one of those guys than the OTs, but I'm not dead set on that stance yet.

[Anselmheifer]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

11-17 is going to have a tight end, a receiver and possibly QB4 inside of it.

 

It will also very likely have OT2 or 3, Guard1, etc.

 

Going to be some good players there.

 

Jaylen Waddle, Kyle Pitts could both very easily be on the board.

 

Trey Lance COULD be, but may not be.

 

Darrishaw, Radunz, Slater, Leatherwood and Cosmi are all possibly on the board in that range. Maybe one of them is gone. 

 

Wyatt Davis, Vera-Tucker are likely to be there. The NFL is projecting Vera-Tucker as a tackle right now, and he's playing there for USC, but he could also play as an interior guard and be a total stud there.

 

I think Vera-Tucker may be the top OL in totality outside of Sewell... and I think there is a lot of quality OL. 

 

I am think Pitts is going top 10. He's a physical unicorn with unicorn production from a solid program. Waddle makes me nervous with his fracture dislocation. Is he going to be the same guy? I could live with Trey Lance, but wouldn't be excited. And I agree. 11-17 may get OT2 or OG1. I think it's a prime spot for OL. Need might meet BPA there. 

 

 

30 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Yeah I'm of the same mind on Farley.  Back injuries spook me, but the healthy version of him would be a weapon behind this defensive line.  If we pick at 19 or lower, then I'd probably draft him.  That feels like a good value range.  Guys who look like studs at VT tend to translate to the NFL, especially on defense.

 

It's not just the back though. He also had an ACL. But the talent is so high end. 

 

"Strengths

"Size-and-speed specimen" is a football phrase I don't toss around lightly in scouting reports. I save it for the truly large and explosive downfield burners. And I have no hesitation labeling Farley a size-and-speed specimen. On film, he's looks every bit as tall as his listed height of 6-2. And good luck finding a play in which he was beaten down the field. There are a few snaps in which the receiver Farley was covering got loose within the first few yards off the line, but that's when the towering cornerback's afterburners were pushed, and he recovered in a flash. Amazing to watch. 

 

But being tall and fast doesn't a cornerback make. And Farley's twitch is tremendous. He explodes after planting his foot when changing directions, and his gelatin-like hips allow him to fluidly maneuver while mirroring. All of that together provides Farley with a vital element of playing the cornerback position: confidence. He's not jittery in press, a hyper-aggressive, boom-or-bust style that produces smothering reps and misses early in the play that lead to big gains for the offense. He often allows a receiver to make his head/shoulder/hip fake then reacts like lightning, essentially closing the separation gap in an instant. Farley is also very keen at pressing outside receivers near the sideline or out of bounds completely when running stride-for-stride with them deep, and his awareness as the ball is arriving is that of a veteran corner. He has high-end man-to-man capabilities and the ideal frame and physical talents to be deployed in zone."

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-draft-what-to-know-about-caleb-farley-after-virginia-tech-defender-opts-out-of-2020-season/

 

 

[Riggo#44]

I'd be very pleased with this one...

[Fresh8686]

18 hours ago, IrepDC said:

He didn't orchestrate his offense at a high level in my opinion. BYU leaned much more on their run game than his arm. As you said, he missed a few throws once the pressure started getting to him, and it was barely much pressure. I can only imagine how he responds when the pass rush is serious. The best thing about him that game was the commentators hyping him up. 

 

How he orchestrates the offense is more about his entire season, that game was going to be ugly with hardly any preparation or swapping of game tape and an ugly, chaotic kind of game favored Coastal's style much better. I agree that like the Houston game, he had to rely on the run game. However, I value ZW's accuracy with off platform throws and one of those throws was the best thing about this game IMO. Mechanically speaking, I prefer that baseball flavor of throwing potential to the kind of hurling motion Trey Lance shows.

 

He's no Joe Burrow though when it comes to that ice like composure in the pocket. He's a try-hard, needs preparation and the right system kind of guy to succeed I think, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

 

19 hours ago, KDawg said:

Right now I’m:

 

Fields/Lawrence, Lance/Wilson, Jones, Trask. But I imagine I’m going to have some sleepers sneak in, Lawrence/Fields adjust the a and b and Lance and Wilson adjust the 3a and b. 

 

Yup, I can get with that. I'll be really interested to see how Lance does at the combine and if he's made any kind of jump while training all season for the NFL. That's where things could really upset the rankings in my opinion, because Lance has so much to work with traits wise, that with a little more polish can put himself over Zach Wilson in draft stock.

[IrepDC]

12 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

How he orchestrates the offense is more about his entire season, that game was going to be ugly with hardly any preparation or swapping of game tape and an ugly, chaotic kind of game favored Coastal's style much better. I agree that like the Houston game, he had to rely on the run game. However, I value ZW's accuracy with off platform throws and one of those throws was the best thing about this game IMO. Mechanically speaking, I prefer that baseball flavor of throwing potential to the kind of hurling motion Trey Lance shows.

 

He's no Joe Burrow though when it comes to that ice like composure in the pocket. He's a try-hard, needs preparation and the right system kind of guy to succeed I think, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

McCall had the same short notice and looked much more polished. He played the same gun slinger, move around the pocket, and scrambling style as Wilson, but he did it better, as a freshman. I don't think we should dismiss the fact that this was the first real competition Wilson has seen and still rely on the games where he played scrubs earlier this year. When I watch us play a game like yesterday, for example, against Pittsburgh, I see a guy like Wilson crumbling under that pressure. The announcers absolutely loved him during the broadcast, and even they couldn't cover for him when he started showing happy feet and seeing ghosts in the pocket. On key 3rd downs in the game, his OC routinely called QB runs or run plays. That could just be bad coaching, but why isn't the team more reliant on a supposed top prospect in the country in key moments? It just really feels like a hype train based on weak competition. He absolutely needs to show that he can do all of the things everyone brags about when he is playing real comp. He should get another chance in a bowl game. I am not saying he can't develop, but I am specifically looking at the situations he would face on THIS team and how he would handle those situations. I'd much rather run with Allen, who he plays a LOT like, and draft someone else in the first round.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

It's not just the back though. He also had an ACL. But the talent is so high end. 

 

Thanks for posting that.  Another take on his athleticism from Bruce Feldman's freaks list for the season: https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/

 

Quote

11. Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech, cornerback

Freakiest attribute: Speed

The 6-2, 207-pounder led the ACC in passes defended with 16 and was tied for second in the league with four INTs en route to earning first-team All-ACC honors. Farley had back surgery after the season, so he didn’t have much chance to boost his testing numbers, but his Freaks card is stamped after clocking a blazing 24.16 mph on his GPS tracker against Notre Dame.

 

His top end speed is ridiculous, almost like he's the defensive counterpoint to the freaky receivers like DK Metcalf and Julio Jones.

 

The ACL injury doesn't scare me as much as the other injury, because that ligament can eventually get back to full strength after repair right?  Whereas it seems like back injuries never truly disappear.

 

In the top ten, I think I would hold off on drafting him because of the risk.  But at 19, that is really tempting value.  I don't think he'd fall out of the top ten if not for them.

 

This looks like a pretty good CB class for day one and day two.  If we end up drafting in the teens, then it could make sense for us to trade down to try and fill up on second rounders because I think there will be some good prospects at CB, RB, WR and TE going in that round.

[Fresh8686]

17 minutes ago, IrepDC said:

McCall had the same short notice and looked much more polished. He played the same gun slinger, move around the pocket, and scrambling style as Wilson, but he did it better, as a freshman. I don't think we should dismiss the fact that this was the first real competition Wilson has seen and still rely on the games where he played scrubs earlier this year. When I watch us play a game like yesterday, for example, against Pittsburgh, I see a guy like Wilson crumbling under that pressure. The announcers absolutely loved him during the broadcast, and even they couldn't cover for him when he started showing happy feet and seeing ghosts in the pocket. On key 3rd downs in the game, his OC routinely called QB runs or run plays. That could just be bad coaching, but why isn't the team more reliant on a supposed top prospect in the country in key moments? It just really feels like a hype train based on weak competition. He absolutely needs to show that he can do all of the things everyone brags about when he is playing real comp. He should get another chance in a bowl game. I am not saying he can't develop, but I am specifically looking at the situations he would face on THIS team and how he would handle those situations. I'd much rather run with Allen, who he plays a LOT like, and draft someone else in the first round.

 

I hear you, although I disagree with McCall. His throws IMO didn't show the same traits as Wilson. He only threw for 85 yards and was much more reliant on stretching out that defensive line on the edges and confusing the hell out of them with his legs or pitching it out to Marable. He had more of a Lamar Jackson style of game, but he was highly efficient and did a damn good job for being a Freshman.

 

I've only seen this one game of his though, so maybe he showed his ability more in other games, because with the success they were having on the ground, they didn't really need to throw it more than they did. Him and the kid from Georgia Southern are some running QB's who have caught my eye as freshman this year.

[CapsSkins]

I am really curious how Ron and Kyle would grade Kyle Allen relative to the QBs in this draft. Especially since they know him really well. They very well could prefer Kyle Allen to Jones/Trask, maybe even Lance. That influences a ton. If they think Kyle is the 3rd-5th best QB in this draft, they may take BPA over QB's even if a guy like Lance is still on the board. (Or even Wilson, who knows). 

[JoggingGod]

21 hours ago, KDawg said:

Fields has a much higher “star” factor. 

What are you smoking lol

[Anselmheifer]

35 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Thanks for posting that.  Another take on his athleticism from Bruce Feldman's freaks list for the season: https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/

 

 

His top end speed is ridiculous, almost like he's the defensive counterpoint to the freaky receivers like DK Metcalf and Julio Jones.

 

The ACL injury doesn't scare me as much as the other injury, because that ligament can eventually get back to full strength after repair right?  Whereas it seems like back injuries never truly disappear.

 

In the top ten, I think I would hold off on drafting him because of the risk.  But at 19, that is really tempting value.  I don't think he'd fall out of the top ten if not for them.

 

This looks like a pretty good CB class for day one and day two.  If we end up drafting in the teens, then it could make sense for us to trade down to try and fill up on second rounders because I think there will be some good prospects at CB, RB, WR and TE going in that round.

 

The ACL has two bundles, one of which provides anterior/posterior stability and one of which provides rotational stability. The reconstruction only provides anterior/posterior stability, so it's not exactly the same as just having your own and if you've torn an ACL you are more than twice as likely to have an other ACL tear, in either knee, as someone who hasn't. Moreover. There is often other damage when you tear an ACL, like meniscus tearing. Whether or not an ACL is reconstructed, a person is about 5 times as likely to eventually get arthritis in that knee. 

However, it's not all of that stuff that makes me hesitate. He's basically had 2 injuries that required season ending surgeries in 3 years. Anecdotally, those players just have durability issues. Maybe they have too much give in their connective tissues. Maybe there is some other problem. But, players that are injured that frequently tend to keep getting injured. Chris Thompson. Jordan Reed. Desean Jackson. Sometimes the juice is worth the squeeze, like it was with Desean. But I always worry about drafting a Bob Sanders that just can't stay healthy. And we've done a lot of that over the years. 

Still, Caleb Farley could be a Jalen Ramsey. He has that much talent. If the FO takes him, I will swallow hard and cross my fingers for health and All Pro selections. 

[Going Commando]

Here was my mock draft on TDN.  Very strange way that the draft board broke.

 

[KDawg]

15 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

What are you smoking lol

Nothing, it’s an opinion. Just like many of your bad ones

[Anselmheifer]

4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Here was my mock draft on TDN.  Very strange way that the draft board broke.

 

 

Zach Wilson at 10 alone would have me thrilled. Let him sit behind Alex for a year. But, Rondale Moore in the 2nd? Given adequate health, he can be a legit Tyreek Hill type of threat. That would be a steal. 

[Riggo#44]

26 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Here was my mock draft on TDN.  Very strange way that the draft board broke.

 

Yeah, I've restarted ridiculous drafts there: Brevin Jordan #3 over all, Fields dropping to 8th.

[Anselmheifer]

I hope we find a way to shore up LB and CB and safety. But, watching us this year, as good as our defense has been, I think we have to upgrade the offense. Imagine how good Chase and Montez would look if other teams had to drop back and pass and put up a bunch of points. That DL would be unstoppable if our offense was top 10 in points scored. Especially if we also controlled the clock to some degree.

Also, Gibson's injury I think points out the need for better talent at RB. This could be the year to grab another elite talent. If Travis Etiene or Najee Harris fall to the 2nd, I'd be tempted to jump all over them. If I was just naming position groups, I wouldn't seek a RB that high, but those two are so talented. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

Yeah, I've restarted ridiculous drafts there: Brevin Jordan #3 over all, Fields dropping to 8th.

 

I think the machine is broken.  Whenever I picked a position, it triggered a run to where all of the players of the position ranked down to about 200 got picked within the next round or so.  That left players from other positions available about two rounds lower than their projection.

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think the machine is broken.  Whenever I picked a position, it triggered a run to where all of the players of the position ranked down to about 200 got picked within the next round or so.  That left players from other positions available about two rounds lower than their projection.

 

It's hit and miss. They fixed some of the more egregious issues--the top 3 are consistently Lawrence, Fields, Sewell now.

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Zach Wilson at 10 alone would have me thrilled. Let him sit behind Alex for a year. But, Rondale Moore in the 2nd? Given adequate health, he can be a legit Tyreek Hill type of threat. That would be a steal. 

 

Plus Derion Kendrick in the third when he's probably like a late first or early second type of player and Paris Ford in the fourth when he's maybe a late second or early third rounder and Spencer Brown in the fifth when super traitsy developmental tackles like him tend to go in the third round.

 

Hubbard in the third feels a little more realistic, but I still think he's a second round talent.  Having him and Rondale Moore would blow the roof off of our team speed.

 

Something broke with the machine on that mock draft.  None of the other ones I did had outcomes like that.

[xxprodigyxx]

5 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

But being tall and fast doesn't a cornerback make. And Farley's twitch is tremendous. He explodes after planting his foot when changing directions, and his gelatin-like hips allow him to fluidly maneuver while mirroring. All of that together provides Farley with a vital element of playing the cornerback position: confidence. He's not jittery in press, a hyper-aggressive, boom-or-bust style that produces smothering reps and misses early in the play that lead to big gains for the offense. He often allows a receiver to make his head/shoulder/hip fake then reacts like lightning, essentially closing the separation gap in an instant. Farley is also very keen at pressing outside receivers near the sideline or out of bounds completely when running stride-for-stride with them deep, and his awareness as the ball is arriving is that of a veteran corner. He has high-end man-to-man capabilities and the ideal frame and physical talents to be deployed in zone."

Turned on.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

Also, Gibson's injury I think points out the need for better talent at RB. This could be the year to grab another elite talent. If Travis Etiene or Najee Harris fall to the 2nd, I'd be tempted to jump all over them. If I was just naming position groups, I wouldn't seek a RB that high, but those two are so talented. 

 

Me too.  Those are next level players who would help pretty much any team that drafted them.  I honestly think they are top 15 overall talents in the class, and thus they give you some of the best value among the blue chip guys likely to still be there in the 40s.

 

Gibson is a committee runner too, not a high volume guy.  Put Etienne or Harris in the committee with him and you would have such physical superiority in your backfield rotation that a defense would get no break.  They would always have to key on the running back first in all but the most extreme down and distances.

 

If we miss out on those two or Hubbard (only a small step down from them in talent IMO), then I think we should come back to the position on the third day when I suspect the good Pac-12 runners will be getting drafted.  I think Borghi is a particularly good fit for us, and I like Jermar Jefferson too.  He shredded a pretty talented Oregon front.

 

The nice thing about this skill group class is that there is a good mix of high end talent and lower round quality.  We can draft WR or RB early and definitely upgrade the offense with blue chip prospects.  Or we can go defense/OL/TE/QB and then still get good prospects at WR and RB third round and below.  I'm seeing Tutu Atwell in the fourth or fifth rounds.  Marlon Williams and Tylan Wallace and the UNC guys and Sage Surratt maybe a little earlier.  The Auburn and Clemson guys around that range too, including Justyn Ross.  Fryfogle isn't even ranked on TDN's board yet.  These are all good prospects with some major opportunities for finding gems.  Might make sense to grab the strong DB and TE and OL prospects in the first two or three rounds and take some swings on the offensive skill guys throughout day three.

[Anselmheifer]

57 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The nice thing about this skill group class is that there is a good mix of high end talent and lower round quality.  We can draft WR or RB early and definitely upgrade the offense with blue chip prospects.  Or we can go defense/OL/TE/QB and then still get good prospects at WR and RB third round and below.  I'm seeing Tutu Atwell in the fourth or fifth rounds.  Marlon Williams and Tylan Wallace and the UNC guys and Sage Surratt maybe a little earlier.  The Auburn and Clemson guys around that range too, including Justyn Ross.  Fryfogle isn't even ranked on TDN's board yet.  These are all good prospects with some major opportunities for finding gems.  Might make sense to grab the strong DB and TE and OL prospects in the first two or three rounds and take some swings on the offensive skill guys throughout day three.

 

I'd be totally in favor of this...if we sign a FA WR. We've actually done really well with our mid to late round WR's. McLaurin. Sims. Jamison Crowder. I don't mind continuing to dip from that pool. But, I think we are finally ready to make a jump and if we roll with Alex Smith, the window is short. Sign Allen Robinson and draft Tutu. Or something similar. Imagine Adding Allen Robinson, Cosmi, Najee Harris, a 3rd round TE, and Tutu. That is a very solid, but not spectacular offense with Alex Smith. Certainly one that could make a run in the playoffs with our DL. 

[KDawg]

22 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I'd be totally in favor of this...if we sign a FA WR. We've actually done really well with our mid to late round WR's. McLaurin. Sims. Jamison Crowder. I don't mind continuing to dip from that pool. But, I think we are finally ready to make a jump and if we roll with Alex Smith, the window is short. Sign Allen Robinson and draft Tutu. Or something similar. Imagine Adding Allen Robinson, Cosmi, Najee Harris, a 3rd round TE, and Tutu. That is a very solid, but not spectacular offense with Alex Smith. Certainly one that could make a run in the playoffs with our DL. 

I don’t like relying on injured guys, but we have to keep in mind that Harmon and Gandy-Golden are here. 
 

AGG struggled to adjust, but an offseason may change his trajectory. And Harmon was once ultra promising.

 

Now, keep in mind... I’m not suggesting we don’t draft a receiver if they are the BPA... I just wouldn’t pass over  high end talent elsewhere to draft a receiver unless that receiver projects to be a NFL 1 in our minds. 
 

I think there are a few of those in this draft. So that could be the case.

[Skinsinparadise]

I agree with the point below but now the possibilities are decreasing.  Among that next group, for me it would be Mac Jones or Desmond Ridder.  I don't believe in forcing a pick though.  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

 

Gibson is a committee runner too, not a high volume guy.  Put Etienne or Harris in the committee with him and you would have such physical superiority in your backfield rotation that a defense would get no break.  They would always have to key on the running back first in all but the most extreme down and distances.

 

If we miss out on those two or Hubbard (only a small step down from them in talent IMO), then I think we should come back to the position on the third day when I suspect the good Pac-12 runners will be getting drafted.  I think Borghi is a particularly good fit for us, and I like Jermar Jefferson too.  He shredded a pretty talented Oregon front.

 

Agree with the point and I'd love  Etienne or Harris.  I'd also add Javonte Williams if they look for a dude later in the draft -- 3rd-4th round range.  He's a tough runner, breaks tackles, good hands, good contact balance with the nose for the end zone.   

 

 

 

40 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I'd be totally in favor of this...if we sign a FA WR. We've actually done really well with our mid to late round WR's. McLaurin. Sims. Jamison Crowder. I don't mind continuing to dip from that pool. But, I think we are finally ready to make a jump and if we roll with Alex Smith, the window is short. Sign Allen Robinson and draft Tutu. Or something similar. Imagine Adding Allen Robinson, Cosmi, Najee Harris, a 3rd round TE, and Tutu. That is a very solid, but not spectacular offense with Alex Smith. Certainly one that could make a run in the playoffs with our DL. 

 

I think we don't go with a QB in this draft and ride with Alex it begs for O lineman, another RB who complements Gibson's skill, and a playmaker or two.  

Edited December 8, 2020 by Skinsinparadise