bearrock Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Is China in a position to do wide scope serological test? We need that to figure out the asymptomatic infected individuals right? Maybe that sheds a more positive light on mortality rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcl05 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, tshile said: Presumably it serves a large area then? whats a realistic influx to the ED number at which you go “oh **** time for plan b” Our hospital is unique, and probably an outlier. I'm at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester Minnesota, where we have 2000+ beds between two hospitals in a town of ~100,000. We have millions of outpatient visits each year, mostly from people from out of the immediate area, including a lot from overseas. So our catchment area is either quite small (if you consider the town itself) or huge (if you consider where our patients actually come from). Our primary ER for local emergencies is fairly small, and while they are excellent, I don't think it would take huge numbers to overwhelm their normal processes. I know they do "mass casualty" drills with some frequency (not specific to infectious issues), so I suspect they have plans in place for how they would respond and how they could scale up. I haven't actually been a part of any ER-specific discussions, so I don't know details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 How do you calculate the fatality rate? If you look at closed cases only, the death rate appears to be 8%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Of the active cases, 18% in critical condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 For anyone interested both delta and airbnb and posted advisories about options if affected by this airbnb will refund your money delta let’s you use the value of your ticket towards future airfare within a year I view those as solid options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 From the Journal of the American Medical Association: Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently published the largest case series to date of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China (72 314 cases, updated through February 11, 2020).1 This Viewpoint summarizes key findings from this report and discusses emerging understanding of and lessons from the COVID-19 epidemic. Epidemiologic Characteristics of the COVID-19 Outbreak Among a total of 72 314 case records (Box), 44 672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test result on throat swab samples), 16 186 as suspected cases (22%; diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs), 10 567 as clinically diagnosed cases (15%; this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (1%; diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue).1 Key Findings From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report 72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020) -Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%) -Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%) -Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%) -Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%) Age distribution (N = 44 672) -≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases) -30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases) -20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases) -10-19 years: 1% (549 cases) -<10 years: 1% (416 cases) Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415) -Mild: 81% (36 160 cases) -Severe: 14% (6168 cases) -Critical: 5% (2087 cases) Case-fatality rate - -2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases) -14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408) -8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918) -49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087) Health care personnel infected -3.8% (1716 of 44 672) -63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716) -14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668) -5 deaths Most case patients were 30 to 79 years of age (87%), 1% were aged 9 years or younger, 1% were aged 10 to 19 years, and 3% were age 80 years or older. Most cases were diagnosed in Hubei Province (75%) and most reported Wuhan-related exposures (86%; ie, Wuhan resident or visitor or close contact with Wuhan resident or visitor). Most cases were classified as mild (81%; ie, nonpneumonia and mild pneumonia). However, 14% were severe (ie, dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/min, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24 to 48 hours), and 5% were critical (ie, respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure) (Box).1 The overall case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.3% (1023 deaths among 44 672 confirmed cases). No deaths occurred in the group aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8.0% CFR and cases in those aged 80 years and older had a 14.8% CFR. Click on the link for the full article 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 On a more serious note: Do farts spread novel coronavirus? A Beijing district CDC answers Do farts spread the COVID-19 virus? Pants work just fine to cut off novel coronavirus transmission in farts, a Beijing district disease control center announced on Sunday. In a lengthy and seemingly humorous yet serious article on its WeChat account, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of Tongzhou district in Beijing clarified that farts, normally, do not constitute another transmission route of COVID-19, unless someone takes a good and rather close sniff of gas from a pantless patient. Click on the link for the full article 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Do Itch Big Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 i'm 10 mins from sac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCS Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Solano County eh? Well this could get interesting. Whole lot of folks traveling just about every direction from there. Including East a few hours to Lake Tahoe. Will be keeping an eye out on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Do Itch Big Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 I know people who commute from Sac to SF and the bay area in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Further away from me than I feared, but still very concerning. We had a case pop up just south of us in Orange County a week or two ago, but they recovered fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llevron Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 First time on the WC in my life and of course it’s swimming with the possibility of infectious disease. There are (I assume) tens of thousands of us at the RSA conference and the thought of this spreading here and then going with us home is keeping me up at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) Edited February 27, 2020 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Want to hear a funny bit of irony? I just got my teaching credential a couple weeks ago, but now it seems increasingly likely that there could be school shutdowns or, at minimum, hiring freezes if this virus spreads as aggressively as assumed. My current job search could very well come to a screeching halt with the area under quarantine. My last teaching gig was online-based, but they had to let me go because I didn't have my credential yet. They've been wanting me back, but I wanted something more permanent. Now, just in time to complete the one requirement they had for me, it could be my only option for a little while. Guess who I taught when I worked there: Chinese students grades K-12. Yep. If I can't teach American students, I'll teach students that the average American would be super wary of right now. Life is ****ing weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Don’t worry, Trump has a master plan. I’m sure that blaming Obama and having Lou Dobbs perform verbal felatio on him will take care of this. Also, Pence has to know he’s being setup, right? I don’t feel sorry for him in the least. Little ****. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 15 hours ago, visionary said: Did Trump Fire the US Pandemic Response Team? Amid warnings from public health officials that a 2020 outbreak of a new coronavirus could soon become a pandemic involving the U.S., alarmed readers asked Snopes to verify a rumor that U.S. President Donald Trump “fired the entire pandemic response team two years ago and then didn’t replace them.” The claim came from a series of tweets posted by Judd Legum, who runs Popular Information, a newsletter he describes as being about “politics and power.” The commentary is representative of sharp criticism from Democratic legislators (and some Republicans) that the Trump administration has ill-prepared the country for a pandemic, even as one is looming. Legum outlined a series of cost-cutting decisions made by the Trump administration in preceding years that gutted the nation’s infectious disease defense infrastructure. The “pandemic response team” is a reference to news stories from spring 2018 reporting that White House officials tasked with directing a national response to a pandemic had been ousted. Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer abruptly departed from his post leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in May 2018 amid a reorganization of the council by then-National Security Advisor John Bolton. Ziemer’s team was disbanded. Tom Bossert, who as The Washington Post reported, “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” had been fired one month prior. It’s true that the Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it. Legum stated in a follow-up tweet, “Trump also cut funding for the CDC, forcing the CDC to cancel its efforts to help countries prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics in 39 of 49 countries in 2018. Among the countries abandoned? China.” That was confirmed in 2018 reports saying that funding for the CDC’s global disease outbreak prevention efforts were cut by 80%, which included the agency’s efforts in China. Click on the link for more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 A scenario I wasn't thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 The virus is only going to affect Trump in 2 ways: The U.S. economy tumbles into a recession; which harms his re-election chances. Even Bernie would have a shot then. The coronavirus starts killing people in GOP areas; which will hurt his re-election since many of his voters would die off. Also, you can’t have the virus affecting your voters. Trump really won’t care if the virus impacts Dem areas. He would look at that as helping him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSkins Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-being-reinfected-with-covid-19-11944295 Looks like you might be able to get it over and over. There might not be long term immunity once you have it. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 12 hours ago, Dr. Do Itch Big said: i'm 10 mins from sac. 😳 😷 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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