BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Springfield]

22 minutes ago, Llevron said:

When do I start freaking about about this? 

Same.

 

I really think we should be more concerned about the flu.

[Renegade7]

27 minutes ago, Llevron said:

When do I start freaking about about this? 

 

That's the harder part, not panicking to allow us to get used to it.

 

Until someone tells me otherwise, I expect to catch it and it be similar to the flu, jus a different virus causing it. Gonna have a lot of remote days coming up soon.

[TheGoodBits]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

[Bacon]

I'm gonna keep taking my vitamin C, stay current on flu shots and keep hand sanitizer handy like I always do. Best not to worry about things you can't control because stress suppresses immune systems as well.

[TheGoodBits]

49 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

That's the harder part, not panicking to allow us to get used to it.

 

Until someone tells me otherwise, I expect to catch it and it be similar to the flu, jus a different virus causing it. Gonna have a lot of remote days coming up soon.

Couple things from the article I linked above “You’re likely to get the coronavirus” and the one below... 

Basically, you’re probably going to get it, it’s roughly 20x as deadly as the flu with no vaccine or no built up immunity year over year and a 20% chance of developing more serious symptoms. Could be looking at something that kills tens of millions a year, just based on how widespread it could get. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/coronavirus-causes-mild-disease-in-four-in-five-patients-says-who

 

More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover, 14% have severe disease including pneumonia and shortness of breath, 5% have critical disease including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure, and 2% of cases are fatal,” Tedros said in Geneva. “The risk of death increases the older you are.”

——————

 

The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

 

 

 

[Renegade7]

30 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

 

 

Ya, that's exactly what it sounds like, felt that way once I realized China coulsnt contain it.  Is what it is, the death rate for my age group is less then half a percent, I wont be in the age group the concenra me for a while.  They may have a vaccine by then, yes, this will kill a lot of people, but so does the flu, context, right?

[CousinsCowgirl84]

4 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

NM

I read your post earlier, and what I wanted to say was I was wrong before about the outbreak being well managed by the administration.  
 

Obviously if you are choosing unqualified people to run health department and cdc you aren’t managing them well. What I should have said is that there is no evidence they cutting funding to the cdc has had any negative impact on containment of the corona virus.

Edited February 26, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[visionary]

 

[twa]

What are the best coronavirus treatments?

Here’s a list of promising drugs being tried on people infected with the virus.

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615284/what-are-the-best-coronavirus-treatments/

[Bacon]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Ya, that's exactly what it sounds like, felt that way once I realized China coulsnt contain it.  Is what it is, the death rate for my age group is less then half a percent, I wont be in the age group the concenra me for a while.  They may have a vaccine by then, yes, this will kill a lot of people, but so does the flu, context, right?

 

As many as 41,000 people have died from flu-like illnesses this flu season, and it isn't over yet. 50k-60k is pretty typical every year. 

 

Around 2,700 have died from COVID-19, largely from the same populations that are endangered by the seasonal flu. 

 

I dunno. The lack of a vaccine and the possibility of panic and economic disruptions are what separate this virus from the others, not necessarily its severity. 

[bcl05]

Most years, the annual flu has a lethality rate of 0.2-0.5%.  That is not trivial, and tens of thousands die every year.  If this new virus has comparable infectivity as the flu and a lethality of 2-3% (as early data suggests), that would mean hundreds of thousands of Americans dead every year.  This is of course early data, but that potential is something to take very, very seriously.  It appears to have the potential to kill considerably more than an an average flu season.  

[kfrankie]

50 minutes ago, Bacon said:

 

As many as 41,000 people have died from flu-like illnesses this flu season, and it isn't over yet. 50k-60k is pretty typical every year. 

 

Around 2,700 have died from COVID-19, largely from the same populations that are endangered by the seasonal flu. 

 

I dunno. The lack of a vaccine and the possibility of panic and economic disruptions are what separate this virus from the others, not necessarily its severity. 

 

So I'll be the one to say what needs to be said here, after somewhat playfully engaging in this thread over the past couple weeks.

 

People need to stay off the goddamn internet and need to stop watching "I am Legend," "The Stand," "Outbreak" and that dumbass final episode of the transformers where all the robots turn red and angry.  This disease is only interesting because it reminds people of these movies.  The chances you will catch this thing is remote.  And if you do catch it, the chances that you'll die are slim.  This is the U.S., not China.  If you go to any reputable hospital you'll receive state of the art care, even if you can't pay for it. You'll get a bill after the fact.

 

As other people have pointed out, there are multiple other diseases out there that you are far more likely to catch and die from. Pointing out other, worse diseases is not the best way to argue but things need to be put in perspective here.

 

The biggest threat this disease poses is to the public mindset.  We saw that yesterday with the stock market.  People need to get the hell away from the sensationalist "news" articles and start acting like adults here.  If you allow this disease to affect your daily life at this juncture you have a weak constitution and someone should give you a backhand slap across the face.  Knock it off and get a new hobby.  You are affecting my 401k.

Edited February 26, 2020 by kfrankie

[bcl05]

10 minutes ago, kfrankie said:

Knock it off and get a new hobby.  

 

Thanks for the advice, but this isn't a hobby.  It's my job.  I'm a physician with expertise in novel disease discovery and novel drug development.  I've been a part of multiple meetings recently as our hospital prepares to deal with this virus.  I'm sure your expertise is super valuable though.  

 

I don't know what the future of this virus is, and neither do you.  I know that it has greater potential to develop into a worldwide pandemic with countless lives affected than any other virus we've seen emerge since HIV.  That doesn't mean it will, and I pray it won't, but to suggest we shouldn't prepare and act aggressively to contain it is just plain stupid and irresponsible.  

Edited February 26, 2020 by bcl05

[Bacon]

22 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

Most years, the annual flu has a lethality rate of 0.2-0.5%.  That is not trivial, and tens of thousands die every year.  If this new virus has comparable infectivity as the flu and a lethality of 2-3% (as early data suggests), that would mean hundreds of thousands of Americans dead every year.  This is of course early data, but that potential is something to take very, very seriously.  It appears to have the potential to kill considerably more than an an average flu season.  

 

That lethality rate, let's be clear, is based on cases that are severe enough to justify going to the doctor. It is possible that tens if not hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 cases could end up unreported because it was asymptomatic. This is something the CDC has anticipated and is part of the efficient spread of a virus. In reality, the 2-3% rate we've seen would realistically shrink when taking into account the full prevalence of the virus. 

[kfrankie]

9 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

 

Thanks for the advice, but this isn't a hobby.  It's my job.  I'm a physician with expertise in novel disease discovery and novel drug development.  I've been a part of multiple meetings recently as our hospital prepares to deal with this virus.  I'm sure your expertise is super valuable though.  

 

I don't know what the future of this virus is, and neither do you.  I know that it has greater potential to develop into a worldwide pandemic with countless lives affected than any other virus we've seen emerge since HIV.  That doesn't mean it will, and I pray it won't, but to suggest we shouldn't prepare and act aggressively to contain it is just plain stupid and irresponsible.  

 

It's because of people like you that normal everyday people shouldn't worry, and should find new hobbies.

Edited February 26, 2020 by kfrankie

[twa]

30 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

 It appears to have the potential to kill considerably more than an an average flu season.  

 

any thoughts on using Chloroquine?

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

[bcl05]

13 minutes ago, Bacon said:

 

That lethality rate, let's be clear, is based on cases that are severe enough to justify going to the doctor. It is possible that tens if not hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 cases could end up unreported because it was asymptomatic. This is something the CDC has anticipated and is part of the efficient spread of a virus. In reality, the 2-3% rate we've seen would realistically shrink when taking into account the full prevalence of the virus. 

 

According to the infectious disease experts at my hospital, the Chinese public health teams are being exceptionally (perhaps overly?) aggressive with testing anyone in Wuhan with any possibly suggestive symptoms (everything from a trivial rise in temperature to cough or sneeze, etc).   So they think the detection rate of infected individuals, at least in Wuhan, should be assumed to be reasonably accurate.  

 

Now, there are issues with the testing methodology (which is continuing to evolve) and who knows how trustworthy Chinese data is anyways, but I know the experts I have heard directly from are preparing for a ~10% severe case rate and 2% lethality rate.  Our hospital is investing heavily in preparing special wards and providing specific and particular training to a pre-defined subset of the staff who will be tasked with responding to this virus.  Hopefully we look back 6 months from now and realize it was all over-preparedness, but no one really knows.  The breadth of possibilities with this virus remains very wide and the smartest people I know in this area are taking it seriously.  

10 minutes ago, twa said:

 

any thoughts on using Chloroquine?

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

 

Chloroquine is one of the most interesting drugs out there.  It's been around forever and we keep discovering new things about it.   Has a lot of efficacy against various viruses, including very similar family members to the corona virus family.  Early evidence suggests it may help with this one. 

 

I'm particularly interested in chloroquine because some effects on liver metabolism that have relevance to some diseases of my particular interest.  It's a weird drug - and we don't completely understand its mechanism of action.  But definitely worth investigating more with this virus. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by bcl05

[Bacon]

6 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

 

According to the infectious disease experts at my hospital, the Chinese public health teams are being exceptionally (perhaps overly?) aggressive with testing anyone in Wuhan with any possibly suggestive symptoms (everything from a trivial rise in temperature to cough or sneeze, etc).   So they think the detection rate of infected individuals, at least in Wuhan, should be assumed to be reasonably accurate.  

 

Now, there are issues with the testing methodology (which is continuing to evolve) and who knows how trustworthy Chinese data is anyways, but I know the experts I have heard directly from are preparing for a ~10% severe case rate and 2% lethality rate.  Our hospital is investing heavily in preparing special wards and providing specific and particular training to a pre-defined subset of the staff who will be tasked with responding to this virus.  Hopefully we look back 6 months from now and realize it was all over-preparedness, but no one really knows.  The breadth of possibilities with this virus remains very wide and the smartest people I know in this area are taking it seriously.  

 

I should have been clearer. I was referring to when this virus hits the western world and it becomes a matter of personal opinion when someone feels they should get tested that their case gets included. I agree that, based on what we have been told, China has been aggressive in their testing practices. But once individualistic Americans that fear medical bills get mixed into the numbers, I think things will become more challenging to predict and we'll see a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases slip through the cracks. 

 

For what it's worth, I appreciate all of the effort you and your colleagues put into this battle. It can't be easy. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Bacon

[bcl05]

I want to be clear - I don't want to overstate my role.  I'm not an infectious disease expert.  I'm a subspecialist in a different area, but my practice includes a lot of international patients.  My role in responding to this will be minor, but I am lucky enough to have access to true experts who are on the front lines.  I am following their lead.  

[88Comrade2000]

We have a president who fired the people who handle these things 2 years ago.   Now, he set up task force made up of cronies.  I don't trust the Trump administration to prepare for this, if the outbreak comes here. It's inevitable that it will eventually.  We live in a world with international trade and travel.  You are bound to have more cases here as this plays out.

 

As for the stock market fears part of that is based the fact many business use China as their supply chain.  With China under quarantine, it's affecting those business getting their products here.  So, the stock market slide isn't just because of fear of the coronavirus but the economic impact from the virus.  Even Trump is worried that could affect the economy and his reelection.

[SoCalSkins]

If you guys don’t think boomers are going to panic you’re crazy. Wealth is also disproportionately held by older people who are at far greater than 2% risk and they will flex their economic muscle and find people to blame and look for fast solutions. The hysteria this is going to cause will be unprecedented. Not a single death in the US yet and look at the market with $1.5 trillion in losses these past 2 days alone. 24 hour news and social media will turn this into an apocalyptic panic. 

[88Comrade2000]

4 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

If you guys don’t think boomers are going to panic you’re crazy. Wealth is also disproportionately held by older people who are at far greater than 2% risk and they will flex their economic muscle and find people to blame and look for fast solutions. The hysteria this is going to cause will be unprecedented. Not a single death in the US yet and look at the market with $1.5 trillion in losses these past 2 days alone. 24 hour news and social media will turn this into an apocalyptic panic. 

Also, when it comes here they are the ones more likely to die from it than the younger folks.  

[TradeTheBeal!]

10 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

If you guys don’t think boomers are going to panic you’re crazy. Wealth is also disproportionately held by older people who are at far greater than 2% risk and they will flex their economic muscle and find people to blame and look for fast solutions. The hysteria this is going to cause will be unprecedented. Not a single death in the US yet and look at the market with $1.5 trillion in losses these past 2 days alone. 24 hour news and social media will turn this into an apocalyptic panic. 

 

The delightful irony here is that a solid percentage of Boomers are right-wing/Fox News zombies and that side of the aisle has gone into overdrive pushing the “just the flu”/liberal hoax angle.

[SoCalSkins]

8 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Also, when it comes here they are the ones more likely to die from it than the younger folks.  

Yes that’s my point. And if they think this was because some dude in China ate an armored armadillo and wiped out 10% of their age group the outrage, panic and economic devastation will be like never seen before in human history with the communications systems in place. 

1 minute ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

The delightful irony here is that a solid percentage of Boomers are right-wing/Fox News zombies and that side of the aisle has gone into overdrive pushing the “just the flu”/liberal hoax angle.

It’s all fun and games when the brown people get caged and the libs get owned but those boomers like nothing more than self preservation. Trump is beyond toast.

[Bacon]

21 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

The delightful irony here is that a solid percentage of Boomers are right-wing/Fox News zombies and that side of the aisle has gone into overdrive pushing the “just the flu”/liberal hoax angle.

 

They wish. 

 

If this virus ends up being as horrible as proposed, there could be a seismic shift in US demographics and distribution of power. This is horrible for the groups you're talking about and Trump is among them. If COVID-19 ends up tanking the economy and wiping out his base, his ass is cooked. 

 

I don't personally believe it will be that bad, but I think a high level of panic could make a dicey situation highly unfavorable for everyone.