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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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7 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Do you guys think it’s paranoia to pull my kids out of school and wait it out a few months? I work from home so I can quarantine at home without interaction with other people. This thing is worrying me.

I kinda think it's a huge over reaction. 

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8 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Do you guys think it’s paranoia to pull my kids out of school and wait it out a few months? I work from home so I can quarantine at home without interaction with other people. This thing is worrying me.


Way too early to consider that. But certainly if this thing becomes as widespread as the flu and it looks like kids are particularly at risk, decent chance we take some serious steps toward self quarantining. 

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Early data (as of about a week ago) suggested that kids tend to have much milder symptoms than adults with this virus.  Apparently there have been almost no severe illnesses among infected kids, and some who have remained completely asymptomatic (compared to an approximately 10% rate of severe illness with infected adults).  I know our hospital is worried about severely affected adults a lot more than severely affected kids (while preparing for both).  

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17 hours ago, purbeast said:

Do you live in China?

 

I live near Irvine, CA with a massive Chinese immigrant population and all around diverse population. I am pretty sure this will be one of the first areas hit if the outbreak takes hold in the US. It's definitely premature now but if it starts going wild in Japan as some are predicting then there is probably no curtailing it in the short term. Then it's a matter of being proactive or reactionary. My daughter is preschool and my son is in kindergarten. They can pick right up at the next class level without any issue in the fall. So if it starts spreading I'm erring on side of extreme caution because I'm not losing much doing that.

 

 

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8 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

I live near Irvine, CA with a massive Chinese immigrant population and all around diverse population. I am pretty sure this will be one of the first areas hit if the outbreak takes hold in the US. It's definitely premature now but if it starts going wild in Japan as some are predicting then there is probably no curtailing it in the short term. Then it's a matter of being proactive or reactionary. My daughter is preschool and my son is in kindergarten. They can pick right up at the next class level without any issue in the fall. So if it starts spreading I'm erring on side of extreme caution because I'm not losing much doing that.

 

 

 

Sounds a bit paranoid to me.  I guess there is that one case there though. 

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5 minutes ago, kfrankie said:

 

Sounds a bit paranoid to me.  I guess there is that one case there though. 

 

More proactive.

 

If he wants more time with his kids I say go for it....they are always bringing home something.

I don't think it is that time yet.

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10 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

I live near Irvine, CA with a massive Chinese immigrant population and all around diverse population. I am pretty sure this will be one of the first areas hit if the outbreak takes hold in the US. It's definitely premature now but if it starts going wild in Japan as some are predicting then there is probably no curtailing it in the short term. Then it's a matter of being proactive or reactionary. My daughter is preschool and my son is in kindergarten. They can pick right up at the next class level without any issue in the fall. So if it starts spreading I'm erring on side of extreme caution because I'm not losing much doing that.

 

 

Honestly, IF we get to that level of concern—who gives a rats ass if you fall behind 1 year? 4 years of school? If you're alive after a massive outbreak then you get to go back to getting educated. 

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On 2/17/2020 at 10:38 AM, SoCalSkins said:

Do you guys think it’s paranoia to pull my kids out of school and wait it out a few months? I work from home so I can quarantine at home without interaction with other people. This thing is worrying me.

FYI. Even if it spreads widely in the US it probably wouldn't be a good idea to do that. For children the flu is probably more dangerous to catch.

 

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
Edited by nonniey
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25 minutes ago, nonniey said:

FYI. Even if it spreads widely in the US it probably wouldn't be a good idea to do that. For children the flu is probably more dangerous to catch.

 

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities


Those stats are very reassuring. Basically in line with seasonal flu. I thought it was around 10%. 

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Coronavirus outbreak could lead to lower lobster prices in Florida

 

NORTH PALM BEACH, Fla. — The coronavirus outbreak in China may be good news for lobster lovers here in Florida.

 

"For the next month or so, we can enjoy lobster for a reasonable price," said Steve Gyland, the owner of Cod & Capers Seafood Marketplace and Café in North Palm Beach.

 

There are six weeks left in Florida's spiny lobster season, which ends on March 31.

 

Gyland said a majority of Florida lobster fishermen sell their lobsters to China, and the demand overseas has dramatically risen over the past few years.

 

"The fishermen went from getting an average of $5 to $6 a pound to getting, during the Chinese New Year, as much as $20 a pound for lobster," said Gyland.

 

However, because many flights to China have been suspended over the coronavirus outbreak, Gyland said Florida fishermen are unable to ship their seafood to China, and therefor have an overabundance of lobsters that they need to get rid of.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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We see how deadly this is, but how likely is hospitalization compared to the flu? With the way this thing spreads, and it seems to spread rapidly despite governments going very far to stop it, how vulnerable are health care systems to simply being overwhelmed?  Not everyone can build a few extra hospitals in a week like China.

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3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

It is true, but not as big a deal as you might be taking it to be based on the writing.  IMO, it is written a bit sensationally.  They originally put out the genome back in January.

 

(Though, generally, advances in the biomedical sciences are are making it much easier and increasing the probability of going from nothing to vaccine in a short period of time.  The issue here, as stated in the piece, is the natural variation of the spike protein.  Plus making the jump to a new host almost always results in a rash of evolution and changes.  The stability of the protein structures to make a vaccine to one of them isn't really clear yet.

 

As a point of comparison, we've known the same information from HIV for decades and still no vaccine.  Now, the similarity between this and SARS makes it seem like that won't be as much of an issue.

 

Antibodies against SARS work against the new virus so even a current SARS vaccine might be effective.

 

https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/sars-vaccine-could-be-stopgap-measure-against-the-new-coronavirus-study)

Edited by PeterMP
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