visionary Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) Edited February 6, 2020 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 13 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said: This seems to be escalating rather quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I heard most of this conversation on the radio yesterday. I didn't realize this new coronavirus & SARS are part of the same strain. Also learned that SARS originated in horseshoe bats which bit civets that were then consumed by humans. The current coronavirus probably originates in the horseshoe bats, too. The unanswered question is what did they bite that became infected? That food market-epicenter was home to numerous types of animals. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/05/802938289/new-coronavirus-wont-be-the-last-outbreak-to-move-from-animal-to-human Apologies if some of this was posted previously in this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I read that it started away from the market, but exploded when it reached it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, EmirOfShmo said: I heard most of this conversation on the radio yesterday. I didn't realize this new coronavirus & SARS are part of the same strain. Also learned that SARS originated in horseshoe bats which bit civets that were then consumed by humans. The current coronavirus probably originates in the horseshoe bats, too. The unanswered question is what did they bite that became infected? That food market-epicenter was home to numerous types of animals. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/05/802938289/new-coronavirus-wont-be-the-last-outbreak-to-move-from-animal-to-human Apologies if some of this was posted previously in this thread. Related strain or same? Same would be bad given the SARS mortality rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, EmirOfShmo said: The unanswered question is what did they bite that became infected? That food market-epicenter was home to numerous types of animals. At one point I heard the list of potential animals. It was long. I’d get it wrong if I tried to repeat it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 23 hours ago, China said: An AI-powered simulation run by a technology executive says that Coronavirus could infect as many as 2.5 billion people within 45 days and kill as many as 52.9 million of them. Fortunately, however, conditions of infection and detection are changing, which in turn changes incredibly important factors that the AI isn’t aware of. so... someone took data that represented a very specific region, that had an outbreak before they knew what was going on, that’s over populated and probably doesn’t have the greatest healthcare culture... then extrapolated it out to the rest of the world that doesn’t have those parameters. then tried to get a little piece of the spotlight. good stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, nonniey said: Related strain or same? Same would be bad given the SARS mortality rate. Hmm...I misspoke in my original post. From the CDC: Q: Is 2019-nCoV the same as the MERS-CoV or SARS virus? A: No. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, some causing illness in people and others that circulate among animals, including camels, cats and bats. The recently emerged 2019-nCoV is not the same as the coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) or the coronavirus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). However, genetic analyses suggest this virus emerged from a virus related to SARS. There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, tshile said: so... someone took data that represented a very specific region, that had an outbreak before they knew what was going on, that’s over populated and probably doesn’t have the greatest healthcare culture... then extrapolated it out to the rest of the world that doesn’t have those parameters. then tried to get a little piece of the spotlight. good stuff. ANNs and other ML techniques are terrible at extrapolations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, DCSaints_fan said: ANNs and other ML techniques are terrible at extrapolations. I’m honestly not equipped to have *that* conversation. I know enough to have an idea what you’re talking about, but I only know a subset of those and that’s from years ago and I certainly can’t compare them intelligently. My real gripe is this guy took bunk data and used it to represent the entire world and then ran with it. He’s either incredibly deceptive or not real good at knowing what he’s doing. At least those seem like the most reasonable options. yes, your model would be worth discussing if the entire world was like wuhan or whatever it is. otherwisen it’s just silliness “doesnt account for all the data” I whatever that paragraph said. Yeah. If by that you meant “uses essentially no realistic data”, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, tshile said: I’m honestly not equipped to have *that* conversation. I know enough to have an idea what you’re talking about, but I only know a subset of those and that’s from years ago and I certainly can’t compare them intelligently. My real gripe is this guy took bunk data and used it to represent the entire world and then ran with it. He’s either incredibly deceptive or not real good at knowing what he’s doing. At least those seem like the most reasonable options. yes, your model would be worth discussing if the entire world was like wuhan or whatever it is. otherwisen it’s just silliness “doesnt account for all the data” I whatever that paragraph said. Yeah. If by that you meant “uses essentially no realistic data”, sure. I don't think it matters even if the data is perfect. As a simple example, lets say you drop a ball from a height, and are able to perfectly measure its position h and time t, before it hits the ground. Run it through that fancy ANN and see what result you get at some time after it hits the ground (at which point it will bounce depending on elasticity, etc.) Without resorting to arguments based on underlying physical laws, there is simply no way to say with any degree certainty, how many infected there will be at some point in he future. Even in that case its tricky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 8 hours ago, EmirOfShmo said: I heard most of this conversation on the radio yesterday. I didn't realize this new coronavirus & SARS are part of the same strain. Also learned that SARS originated in horseshoe bats which bit civets that were then consumed by humans. The current coronavirus probably originates in the horseshoe bats, too. The unanswered question is what did they bite that became infected? That food market-epicenter was home to numerous types of animals. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/05/802938289/new-coronavirus-wont-be-the-last-outbreak-to-move-from-animal-to-human Apologies if some of this was posted previously in this thread. I listened to this interview yesterday. The guy speculated that some sort of transmission occurred such as bats pooping where pigs ate (an example he gave that was known to happen with a bat to horse disease in Australia), the pigs becoming carriers, and when they are slaughtered at market and sold off, suddenly you have a few dozen people who bought the pig meat infected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoshuaj Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Nominally related but somewhat off-topic: For those of the prepper ilk, what’s the tipping point to “bug out”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, stoshuaj said: Nominally related but somewhat off-topic: For those of the prepper ilk, what’s the tipping point to “bug out”? If you think it's time, it's too late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcl05 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I'm a physician (not in infectious disease) at a large academic medical center that caters to a largely international patient base. Lots of worry here about potential cases. We have a meeting today with the infectious disease team to get more info/plans re this virus. I'm very excited to hear from real experts - so hard to know what to make of varied media reports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoshuaj Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: If you think it's time, it's too late. That’s what I would think as well but I’m not in that circle so I have no clue. I’m more of a, embrace my impending doom kind of fella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 before they try to stop you is a good metric.....not that they could stop me. There is some good news in that it does not seem to be hitting children as much, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Oh ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry.Randolphe Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I'm still not seeing the cause for alarm here unless you're a kid, elderly, or immune compromised.....basically the same fears for the flu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Barry.Randolphe said: I'm still not seeing the cause for alarm here unless you're a kid, elderly, or immune compromised.....basically the same fears for the flu mainly the elderly and immune compromised, but the death toll passed SARS a few days ago. China was slôw off the ball on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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