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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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15 hours ago, Destino said:

China is acting like this thing is an existential threat.  There are images of villages building walls in the middle of streets to stop anyone from spreading the disease to their town.  Consider what it would take for YOU to do something like that.  How bad would things have to be for your town, city, or whatever to be like "you know what... I think I saw some cinder blocks at the construction yard, lets seal off the neighborhood!" 

 

Then you look at the response from western nations and it's the policy equivalent of reluctantly agreeing to clean up the garage.  You'll get around to it, eventually. 

 

That's not what's going on behind the scenes, though I can understand why it sort of appears that way.

 

The CDC and regional hospitals and health departments are taking this very seriously.

 

It's hard to order someone into quarantine. It's hard to find someone and tell them they need to voluntarily sit out of life for up to 14 days. The tests, to my knowledge, can only be done by the CDC. They take a while. There's a backlog. And if they decide they want to re-test again, there's even more delay...

 

There's also a legitimate issue of creating a run on the hospitals... And, unfortunately, we don't really have a lot of infrastructure ready for mass quarantining; on that note, the temporarily solutions for mass quarantine are not pretty. Do you know anyone who works in a hospital, or have you ever worked in a hospital? Do you think your standard community hospital is ready to accommodate 300-1000 people showing up to the ED with a virus where the recommended action is to quarantine in a negative pressure room? How many negative pressure rooms do you think a standard community hospital has?

 

Add to it the economic impact of all the potential actions everyone can take.

 

It's an overly complicated situation; with a backdrop of: this is essentially a cold.

 

At this point it'd be easy to say we're under prepared for something like this, should it be a serious threat, based on how things are unfolding... but I think if the mortality rate was higher we'd see much more drastic action... but I'm just guessing. I don't actually know.

 

I think what I'm trying to say is there's a lot going on behind the scenes that the general public isn't getting for a lot of reasons. One, there's no point in creating a run on the hospitals; Two, our government seems inept at all levels at the moment; Three, our media is more interested in ratings than providing a public service.

 

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I had the opportunity to attend the RSA conference in SF at the end of February and was expressly forbidden by my (slightly hypochondriac) wife. Can’t say I blame her though. If there’s anywhere a Chinese disease would spread quickly in the US, it would be San Francisco. And we’ve got small kids, so presumably they are more vulnerable. 

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2 hours ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

I had the opportunity to attend the RSA conference in SF at the end of February and was expressly forbidden by my (slightly hypochondriac) wife. Can’t say I blame her though. If there’s anywhere a Chinese disease would spread quickly in the US, it would be San Francisco. And we’ve got small kids, so presumably they are more vulnerable. 

If memory serves San Francisco has recently made the news for open air drug use, tent cities, and even a problem with human feces.  Those three problems combine to make a wonderful environment for any ambitious disease out there looking to quickly spread into a new city. 
 

Then again the things I mentioned might just be exaggerated scare media BS.  I’ve never been to San Fran, much less lived there long enough to know the difference.  
 

edit:  forgot to mention the US healthcare system, where the poor put off going to the doctor as much as possible because it can bankrupt them, would probably make this worse.  

Edited by Destino
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7 hours ago, tshile said:

 

That's not what's going on behind the scenes, though I can understand why it sort of appears that way.

 

The CDC and regional hospitals and health departments are taking this very seriously.

 

It's hard to order someone into quarantine. It's hard to find someone and tell them they need to voluntarily sit out of life for up to 14 days. The tests, to my knowledge, can only be done by the CDC. They take a while. There's a backlog. And if they decide they want to re-test again, there's even more delay...

 

There's also a legitimate issue of creating a run on the hospitals... And, unfortunately, we don't really have a lot of infrastructure ready for mass quarantining; on that note, the temporarily solutions for mass quarantine are not pretty. Do you know anyone who works in a hospital, or have you ever worked in a hospital? Do you think your standard community hospital is ready to accommodate 300-1000 people showing up to the ED with a virus where the recommended action is to quarantine in a negative pressure room? How many negative pressure rooms do you think a standard community hospital has?

 

Add to it the economic impact of all the potential actions everyone can take.

 

It's an overly complicated situation; with a backdrop of: this is essentially a cold.

 

At this point it'd be easy to say we're under prepared for something like this, should it be a serious threat, based on how things are unfolding... but I think if the mortality rate was higher we'd see much more drastic action... but I'm just guessing. I don't actually know.

 

I think what I'm trying to say is there's a lot going on behind the scenes that the general public isn't getting for a lot of reasons. One, there's no point in creating a run on the hospitals; Two, our government seems inept at all levels at the moment; Three, our media is more interested in ratings than providing a public service.

 


This is why we need to always fully fund places like the CDC and you’re right in both that we are behind in being able to deal with this and that there are lots of things going on behind the scenes. It’s my woman’s job to know what’s going on in this field so I occasionally hear about things that are at the same time fascinating and disgusting.

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What’s crazy is over 60,000 people died of the flu last year. And it’s hard to get people to get flu shots. This thing so far statistically this is small potatoes compared to the but people are freaking out. We really don’t understand risk well in the USA. 

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Just now, HOF44 said:

What’s crazy is over 60,000 people died of the flu last year. And it’s hard to get people to get flu shots. This thing so far statistically is small potatoes compared to the but people are freaking out. We really don’t understand risk wel in the USA. 

 

Flu death rate is 0.1%

 

Estimates for this death rate is around 2%.  And it appears just as contagious as the flu. 

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Flu is contagious 24 hours before being symptomatic

 

they believe this is up to 20 days. 14 is seemingly verified but maybe 20 now. 
 

which is really what the big issue is. That’s a long time to carry without symptoms and being contagious. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

Flu death rate is 0.1%

 

Estimates for this death rate is around 2%.  And it appears just as contagious as the flu. 

Flu death rate is 7% of severe cases (Hospitalized).  Deaths from this new virus are 2% of confirmed/hospitalized cases .  Reports are large percentages who contract this virus don't get severe symptoms  - so I assume like the flu most that actually catch this virus don't end up in the hospital.  (The bad thing about this is it is probably much more wide spread). 

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