China Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked' The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist. His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the “tip of the iceberg”. Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%. “Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday. Click on the link for the full article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 well yeah, if it cannot be controlled. how many haven't we controlled in the modern era? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, twa said: well yeah, if it cannot be controlled. how many haven't we controlled in the modern era? Only one that matters is the last. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, TheGreatBuzz said: Only one that matters is the last. true, but un;ess it mutates it is mainly hitting older males. I doubt ya'LL will miss me much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Unfortunately it looks like yesterdays dip didn't hold or was probably under reported - big Spike tonight that more than made up for the decline yesterday. They jumbled 2 days worth of data together with 252 deaths (on top of the 97 yesterday?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, nonniey said: Unfortunately it looks like yesterdays dip didn't hold or was probably under reported - big Spike tonight that more than made up for the decline yesterday. They jumbled 2 days worth of data together with 252 deaths (on top of the 97 yesterday?). No there was still a dip today. New cases roughly half of what they were a week ago. The spike today was only because they changed their reporting criteria and moved a bunch of previously suspected cases into the confirmed category. They’re saying this could peak by late Feb and burn itself out entirely by sometime in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, twa said: I doubt ya'LL will miss me much Honestly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: Honestly? I'll take Jumbo and Larry for company and leave PCS....deal?, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, twa said: I'll take Jumbo and Larry for company and leave PCS....deal?, Nah. I like Jumbo and Larry just fine. (This forum really needs a way for me to silently yet painfully obviously point out that your exit is stage left however.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfrankie Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html Well, it appears that China was not counting patients that had been "clinically diagnosed" in its counting method. So tack on another 15,000 cases and the total figure is now over 60,000 infected. Next thing we'll find out that they were not counting "clinically deceased" cases in the mortality figure. Edited February 13, 2020 by kfrankie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfrankie Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 hours ago, twa said: I'm wondering if the disease figures are being significantly under reported, or if cases are simply going undiagnosed, in some of the southeast asian countries. If big brother China can't get its act together, is it reasonable to assume that Thailand has the assistance it needs? Also, I find it hard to believe (yes, I understand that the numbers are based on "reports" and not actual cases) that there is not a single case yet on the African and South American continents. This has to have made in way into these areas by now. Let's just hope that local custom does not simply assume that people are dying of pneumonia like was (is) the case with AIDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcl05 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) At the recent presentation from the infectious disease experts at my hospital, one of their biggest concerns is the strong likelihood of cases in Africa. China has made huge investments in Africa in the last decade, and there were many travelers between Wuhan and various locations in Africa before the recognition of the outbreak. Africa generally does not have the reporting or testing infrastructure present in the US, Europe, etc, so the lack of "cases" really reflects an absence of data, not a true, confirmed absence of cases. There is a very real possibility that even if the outbreak can be contained in China a second wave of cases and spread could emerge from Africa. Testing for this virus is still being optimized, so discrepancies in data, even from places doing their very best to capture all potential cases, should be expected this early with a novel disease. The possibilities that could emerge from this virus are still extremely broad. It could fizzle out the way SARS and MERS did, or it could really become a significant worldwide problem the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time. No one really knows. The best experts in the field are hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. Likely we'll end up somewhere in between, but anyone who claims certainty is not dealing with reality. Our hospital has a long, complex, and detailed plan in place for various levels of disease burden here. I hope it remains theoretical. Edited February 13, 2020 by bcl05 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted February 14, 2020 Author Share Posted February 14, 2020 Coronavirus cases spike as China sacks senior officials Death toll spikes: China's Hubei province announced 242 new deaths from the novel coronavirus, which is known officially as Covid-19, today — twice as many as on the previous day. New infections there jumped by more than 14,000. What this is about: The spike in numbers is partly due to a broader definition of what constitutes a confirmed case, to include people diagnosed on the basis of their symptoms rather than testing positive. Global spread: There are at least 570 confirmed cases of coronavirus in more than 25 countries and territories outside mainland China. Click on the link for the full article and live updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 5:54 PM, twa said: well yeah, if it cannot be controlled. how many haven't we controlled in the modern era? We generally can't control anything that is airborne that we don't have a vaccine for, and even some airborne illnesses with vaccines we can't control because they keep mutating, such as influenza. Another good example is Tuberculosis. I tested positive for it 20 years ago along with a family member. Luckily it never advanced so now it is "latent" It is estimated a quarter of the world has TB including active and latent cases. Kills about 1.7 million/year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted February 14, 2020 Author Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said: We generally can't control anything that is airborne that we don't have a vaccine for, and even some airborne illnesses with vaccines we can't control because they keep mutating, such as influenza. Another good example is Tuberculosis. I tested positive for it 20 years ago along with a family member. Luckily it never advanced so now it is "latent" It is estimated a quarter of the world has TB including active and latent cases. Kills about 1.7 million/year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis Well, I think if I had TB, I'd make it sound exotic in an archaic sort of way by saying I had consumption or scrofula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 (edited) Edited February 14, 2020 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 My sister likes to buy **** from China. My roommate told me not to get the mail today. Apparently, a package from Wuhan, China is coming. That's nice. He said, when he comes home from work; he will disinfect our mail/mailbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 (edited) Edited February 14, 2020 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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