2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[PlayAction]

4 hours ago, skinny21 said:

If you assign a percentage to Chase Young not turning out to be a bust, I imagine most would go with 80+ or even 90+ %.  Compare that with trading down and getting 2 guys that have a (by the averages) roughly 50-55% of not busting.  So something like 25% they both become busts, 50% one of them is a bust, 25% chance they both succeed.  Makes you stop and think.  

 

If Tua or another coveted QB is there and a team offers the Skins three firsts and a second do you still pick Chase Young?  No other team is as dumb as the Skins to offer that haul except maybe the Texans but you never know what your choice will be.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[mhd24]

Say we end up with the 3rd pick and Tua/Burrow and Young are off the board.  Do we take the other QB?  I've been looking at Burrow and he looks like a far superior prospect then Haskins.  Its not even close.  That guy looks like a natural QB.  Haskins is way too mechanical right now.

[skinny21]

26 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Say we end up with the 3rd pick and Tua/Burrow and Young are off the board.  Do we take the other QB?  I've been looking at Burrow and he looks like a far superior prospect then Haskins.  Its not even close.  That guy looks like a natural QB.  Haskins is way too mechanical right now.

I don’t believe they’ll go with a qb, but that could change.  Mostly I don’t see Allen admitting a mistake that ‘quickly’.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FrFan]

17 hours ago, mhd24 said:

Say we end up with the 3rd pick and Tua/Burrow and Young are off the board.  Do we take the other QB?  I've been looking at Burrow and he looks like a far superior prospect then Haskins.  Its not even close.  That guy looks like a natural QB.  Haskins is way too mechanical right now.

Snydallen is going to stick with Callahan to keep his "precious"

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Oooo, I do really like how he gets leverage there.  How's Jedrick Wills pass blocking?

 

TDN has IOL Trey Smith at #80 now, that's a jump of 20-25 spots.  It also has Jedrick Wills at #28.

[Skinsinparadise]

[Tedskins 21]

Got to snag Chase Young to make up for the terrible Sweat pick.  I will actually have faith in the Defense next year.

[Skinsinparadise]

new pff detailed breakdowns

[JSSkinz]

Our speedy pass rusher is better at run defense.

 

What's up with J Allen?

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

Our speedy pass rusher is better at run defense.

 

What's up with J Allen?

 

Sweat was seen by some as a good run defender in college, he has the long arms among other things. 

[JSSkinz]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Sweat was seen by some as a good run defender in college, he has the long arms among other things. 

I hate to give these rookies a hard time but man between Haskins and Sweat we basically drafted two major projects, I think Haskins can improve but the things that make a pass rusher very good seem to be more innate as opposed to something that can be taught.

 

You cant teach explosive burst or quick-twitch lateral movement, can you?

 

 

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Just now, Tedskins 21 said:

Got to snag Chase Young to make up for the terrible Sweat pick.  I will actually have faith in the Defense next year.

 

Montez Sweat is still young.  Troubling signs, surely, but 1 full off-season for him where he thinks "Ok, that didn't work like it did in college, how can I fix it?"  If after 2 seasons he still struggles, that's rough.  To put this in context with someone else, DeMarcus Lawrence did absolutely nothing in his rookie year, flashed in his 2nd year, went back to nothing in his 3rd year, before finally figuring it out and turning it on in his 4th and 5th years.

 

Regardless, even if Sweat pans out, what team wouldn't want two stud passrushers.  Remember the havoc that Ware and Miller created in their SB win?

 

There are 7 pass rushers drafted in the 1st round in 2019, and according to PFR here's some stats (in order of draft position):

Nick Bosa - 24 pressures (including 7 sacks), 21 combined tackles, 1 missed tackle, 4 Tackles For Loss (11 minus the 7 sacks)

Clelin Ferrell - 3 pressures (inc. 1 sack), 15 tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 TFL

Josh Allen - 31 pressures (7 sacks), 25 tackles, 2 missed tackles, 1 TFL

Rashan Gary - 3 pressures (1 sack), 12 tackles, 3 missed tackles, 0 TFL

Brian Burns - 19 pressures (4.5 sacks), 15 tackles, 3 missed tackles, -2 TFL (I think this can only happen if he didn't actually tackle the QB, but ran him out of bounds behind the LoS)

Montez Sweat - 15 pressures (2.5 sacks), 33 tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 TFL

LJ Collier - 0 pressures, 2 tackles (I'm including him since his draft projection was that as a "big edge" on the strongside, no idea how Seattle is using him though)

 

Our guy Sweat has been much more active in the run defense part than everyone else.  I'm surprised Brian Burns only has a bit more pass rush production, i've heard he's playing great for Carolina.  He's also someone I liked a lot more than Sweat coming out.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Just now, JSSkinz said:

I hate to give these rookies a hard time but man between Haskins and Sweat we basically drafted two major projects, I think Haskins can improve but the things that make a pass rusher very good seem to be more innate as opposed to something that can be taught.

 

You cant teach explosive burst or quick-twitch lateral movement, can you?

 

You can't.  Some guys can have great careers and be pass rushers without the quick twitch lateral movement, but having it can't hurt.  Sweat doesn't, but he does flash the explosive burst from time to time.

 

You know who had good burst and good quick twitch lateral movement but fell to the 3rd round?  Chase Winovich.  He barely plays, and seems to mostly play on passing downs, but he's got 13 pressures and 4.5 sacks for the Patriots.  Having both things at good or better should've had him go in the 2nd round.  Brian Burns was someone with about the same burst, but even better quick twitch lateral and he went in the 1st.

 

I feel like I usually have a grasp on whether an Edge prospect will pan out or not.  Combine numbers paired with showing it on tape should say everything, but there are outliers.  Terrell Suggs had an awful combine, but he's a future Hall of Famer.  Guys like Suggs who can excel in other ways always make me uncertain about declaring an Edge guy a potential bust.  I've missed on some others, such as Joey Bosa.  I thought Joey should've gone the Justin Tuck route, and spend a fair amount of pass rushing time from inside.  Another one I'll toot my horn on though, Derek Barnett.  He's underwhelmed as a Pro, and I feel like I nailed that.

[PartyPosse]

There are a ton of picks in the first not immediately setting rookie records, so already dismissing Sweat is just flat out dumb and I’m disappointed in some of the so-called knowledgable fans doing so. 
 

Remember when Quinnen Williams was supposed to be the most nfl-ready talent? Guess what? He’s struggling as well.

 

Ive said this a thousand times before but I’ll say it again, there’s enough reason to **** on the redskins so piling on unjust criticism is just lazy. I remember how excited the board was when we traded up for Sweat. Now everyone is jumping off that bandwagon. 
 

 Seriously, some of you need to step away from football for a while.

[FuriousD]

12 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

There are a ton of picks in the first not immediately setting rookie records, so already dismissing Sweat is just flat out dumb and I’m disappointed in some of the so-called knowledgable fans doing so. 
 

Remember when Quinnen Williams was supposed to be the most nfl-ready talent? Guess what? He’s struggling as well.

 

Ive said this a thousand times before but I’ll say it again, there’s enough reason to **** on the redskins so piling on unjust criticism is just lazy. I remember how excited the board was when we traded up for Sweat. Now everyone is jumping off that bandwagon. 
 

 Seriously, some of you need to step away from football for a while.

Seriously!

Biggest issue with rookie linemen in their first year is nearly always conditioning and muscle.  Sweat will benefit greatly from an off-season weight program...

[Going Commando]

46 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

DeMarcus Lawrence did absolutely nothing in his rookie year, flashed in his 2nd year, went back to nothing in his 3rd year, before finally figuring it out and turning it on in his 4th and 5th years.

 

Similar pattern with Danielle Hunter.  That's the kind of player Montez can become in time.

[KDawg]

I disagree... strongly... on Sweat. Dude has gotten better every week, has put up better stats than Kerrigan and is battling left tackles as a rookie. 
 

I plan on doing a better breakdown on him this offseason, but I have no concerns with him. He does need to keep getting better, though. But so far I have seen improvements across the board. 

[kingdaddy]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I disagree... strongly... on Sweat. Dude has gotten better every week, has put up better stats than Kerrigan and is battling left tackles as a rookie. 
 

I plan on doing a better breakdown on him this offseason, but I have no concerns with him. He does need to keep getting better, though. But so far I have seen improvements across the board. 

I agree, Sweat was a good pick who will get better. He's part of a good group of young guys on defense that, with the right coordinator and coaching could be a very special group. 

 

[method man]

Given he is actually a complete 3-4 LB and this was the 25th pick, he’s a hit even if he becomes just an 8 sack a season guy

[Going Commando]

He needs to develop his presnap approach on pass downs, and read his keys and trust his eyes and find that football a little faster.  I think he's still at the point where he is slowed down because he's afraid to make mistakes and he is thinking through the rep.  But he's been fine for a rookie.  Playing the edge is hard.  He's got every physical tool necessary to be outstanding.  He's going to get good in a season or two.

[Skinsinparadise]

I am ditto cool with Sweat so far.  For those interested, I posted this elsewhere

 

Top 10 DE/OLB Pass Rush Win Rate

1. T.J. Watt, Steelers, 33%
2. Robert Quinn, Cowboys, 30%
3. Myles Garrett, Browns, 28%
4. Preston Smith, Packers, 28%
5. Jadeveon Clowney, Seahawks, 27%
6. Dante Fowler Jr., Rams, 27%
7. Matthew Judon, Ravens, 26%
8. Khalil Mack, Bears, 26%
9. DeMarcus Lawrence, Cowboys, 26%
10. Shaquil Barrett, Buccaneers, 25%

 

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Top 10 DT Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Aaron Donald, Rams, 28%
2. Grady Jarrett, Falcons, 23%
3. Ed Oliver, Bills, 19%
4. Calais Campbell, Jaguars, 19%
5. Maliek Collins, Cowboys, 18%
6. Vita Vea, Buccaneers, 18%
7. Chris Jones, Chiefs, 16%
8. Matt Ioannidis, Redskins, 15%
9. Corey Peters, Cardinals, 14%
10. D.J. Reader, Texans, 14%

 

I notice Vea is getting some hype of late.  He was banged up some last year but seems healthy now.   Cowboys did well with Quinn.  McClay is maybe the best personnel guy in the league drafts well, good trades, FA decent, too. 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

 

Team Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 56%
2. Dallas Cowboys, 54%
3. Los Angeles Rams, 53%
4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 53%
5. Jacksonville Jaguars, 52%
6. Atlanta Falcons, 52%
7. Philadelphia Eagles, 51%
8. Baltimore Ravens, 51%
9. Cleveland Browns, 48%
10. Chicago Bears, 48%
11. New York Jets, 47%
12. Arizona Cardinals, 47%
13. Green Bay Packers, 46%
14. Seattle Seahawks, 46%
15. Buffalo Bills, 45%
16. San Francisco 49ers, 45%
17. Carolina Panthers, 44%
18. Los Angeles Chargers, 43%
19. Houston Texans, 42%
20. Washington Redskins, 42%
21. Indianapolis Colts, 41%
22. Tennessee Titans, 40%
23. New England Patriots, 39%
24. New Orleans Saints, 39%
25. Minnesota Vikings, 39%
26. New York Giants, 39%
27. Cincinnati Bengals, 37%
28. Denver Broncos, 36%
29. Kansas City Chiefs, 35%
30. Oakland Raiders, 35%
31. Miami Dolphins, 30%
32. Detroit Lions, 25%

[Going Commando]

On 11/5/2019 at 7:57 PM, mhd24 said:

Say we end up with the 3rd pick and Tua/Burrow and Young are off the board.  Do we take the other QB?  I've been looking at Burrow and he looks like a far superior prospect then Haskins.  Its not even close.  That guy looks like a natural QB.  Haskins is way too mechanical right now.

 

Dwayne Haskins is the reason Joe Burrow ended up at LSU.  He's actually one class earlier than Dwayne, both started last season, and you're right that it wasn't close between them.

 

Put it this way, if we get a top three pick and spend it on a QB and waste a third top prospect in less than ten years, then all of my Redskins **** is going in the dumpster and I'm becoming a "general NFL fan."