2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

The NFL isn't the NBA but yeah top 5 is the better place to pick.

 

https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/

By The Numbers

If we are to judge just how ineffective the current scouting process in the NFL is, the best place to start would be to look at how effective draft picks have been. In order to do this, I am going to look at first round picks since 2011, an arbitrary starting point, and examine how many have worked out. I chose first round picks for this, partly in order to keep the numbers manageable, but also because these are the players where there should be the greatest consensus about their ability. While there are the occasional out-of-the-blue picks, the majority of the players taken in the first round are highly rated across most draft boards with few surprises coming about the players taken on draft night. So how do these players fare?

First, we’ll need to define how we judge success, and for first round picks I have decided, again with a certain level of arbitrariness, that a good definition of a solid first round pick is somebody who averages an Approximate Value each year of 5 or more. AV is a valuation statistic from Pro Football Reference, it is far from perfect, but at this level gives a vague indication of player success, especially when we will be comparing players across different positions. Am AV of five represents a decent but unspectacular season for an NFL player, this is the value that Tyler Larsen and Jonathan Stewart received last season, and so for a first round pick to fail to live up to this level would likely be seen by most to be a bust; this isn’t a particularly high bar for them to reach.

Related:   James Bradberry Is Making The Leap

 

Of the 223 first round picks over the past seven years, 120 have averaged an AV of 5 or more for their careers so far; that’s good for a 53% success rate. The numbers are also extremely consistent year-to-year. 2013 unsurprisingly had the lowest success rate, but that was still 47% and no year managed to get as high as 60%. Even 2011, the draft class that has become famous for being loaded with talent, had its fair share of busts; let’s not forget that Jake Locker was drafted eighth overall. Now, there are some who will argue that teams often reach for a quarterback in the first round, and that swinging for a signal caller is what drags these numbers down to some extent; however, the numbers just don’t bear this argument out, first round quarterbacks actually have a success rate of 60%, they are in fact dragging the numbers up.

Interestingly, this success rate continues to be low even at the very top of the draft.

[PlayAction]

On 11/3/2019 at 1:35 AM, nonniey said:

Here's a tough one - Would you trade our 1st for Tomlin if Tomlin insisted that Allen be fired and replaced by a GM of Tomlins choice? (If that was the only way to get rid of Bruce)?

 

No because Danny would fire all of them in 2 years if he doesn't change his stripes

[PlayAction]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep and my hope is that a talent like Young would do for us what Bosa did for the 9ers. They stacked DL in the 1st round too but it hasn't started shining till this year because they lacked real game changing edge rushers.

 

Imagine a front 7 of Ion, Allen, and Payne at DL with Sweat and Young at OLB and Holcomb at ILB. Just get one more ILB and we'd be pretty damn set up there. Of course we'd need a D-Coord that can coach them up, but that's another story entirely....

 

49ers have an offense to pair with that defense.  Skins are 3 games without a TD? We can improve the defense simply by having an offense that can convert more on 3rd down.  Maybe in two years they will be back to 8-8 but it's a long road.  Even so, a top talent DE is worth the high draft pick - but building a competitive team is going to take a big influx of new talent.  Here's hoping for a short trade down for a bonanza of picks from a team looking for that franchise QB (and hopefully that's not the Skins!).  

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I haven't really studied him but I know he's played outside some too -- and guys like Keim and hoffman have said he's played poorly in both positions.  Hoffman said they think he's been worse than Norman. 

 

Well, if he's been worse than our CB group is Dunbar and that's it.  We've got Jimmy Moreland, who is interesting as a rookie, but that's the entirety.  CB is absolutely on the table.

 

PFR has some advanced stats for defense, and Buffalo's game hasn't been included yet (it updates on Wednesday), but here's the QB rating allowed for various spots.

 

Dunbar - 41 QB rating allowed (likely going up after Buffalo, he allowed a TD)

Norman - 132.7

Moreau - 106.4

Moreland - 90.5

 

That's not good.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Well, if he's been worse than our CB group is Dunbar and that's it.  We've got Jimmy Moreland, who is interesting as a rookie, but that's the entirety.  CB is absolutely on the table.

 

PFR has some advanced stats for defense, and Buffalo's game hasn't been included yet (it updates on Wednesday), but here's the QB rating allowed for various spots.

 

Dunbar - 41 QB rating allowed (likely going up after Buffalo, he allowed a TD)

Norman - 132.7

Moreau - 106.4

Moreland - 90.5

 

That's not good.

 

Agree, it's not good.   PFF has Moreau with a worse score than Norman.  I haven't checked to see how they got there but I'll take a look shortly at the sub numbers.   My point was Hoffman said the coaches he's talked to are even more down on Moreau's play this year than Norman.  Granted maybe other coaches feel differently?  I've noticed several reporters said they heard that Jay wanted to let Norman go in the off season but the FO disagreed with him. 

[Thinking Skins]

@Skinsinparadise, thats a nice post. I'm going to do something with it later today (or this week, or before the draft). I have to bookmark it though to remind myself though. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Interestingly, this success rate continues to be low even at the very top of the draft.

 

If we trade out of the Top 5, I'm sure we'd all like to trade down even more.  The more swings you have in the draft, the more likely you are to get a hit.  There are things outside of even the best talent evaluators control.  Such as injuries.  Patriots have a 2018 1st round pick whose been stellar when on the field...but he's usually been injured.  I don't recall him having an injury history in college either.  Their current 2019 1st round also wasn't injury prone that I recall...but he's missed 8 games.

 

Trent Williams, for as awesome as he is on the field, usually only plays 70-80% of the teams snaps in a season.

Jadaveon Clowney tore his knee to shreds in his rookie year and is that why he's never become the pass rusher we thought he would be?

 

If we're in the Top 5, I want Chase Young or trade back, that's it.

[JCB]

There’s no doubt it should be Young over an OT. Just watch Bosa and Ingram tee off on Rodgers yesterday, I’d be thrilled with an abundance of pass rushers.

[PartyPosse]

I'd still like to stay in the top 10 and grab either Okudah, Young, Delpit or Jeudy. If not then I'd prefer to trade down to the teens and really load up on picks. Hell if we manage to grab another 1st and a second i'd be totally cool with spending the 2nd on another WR. 

[mistertim]

11 hours ago, PlayAction said:

 

49ers have an offense to pair with that defense.  Skins are 3 games without a TD? We can improve the defense simply by having an offense that can convert more on 3rd down.  Maybe in two years they will be back to 8-8 but it's a long road.  Even so, a top talent DE is worth the high draft pick - but building a competitive team is going to take a big influx of new talent.  Here's hoping for a short trade down for a bonanza of picks from a team looking for that franchise QB (and hopefully that's not the Skins!).  

 

Yes we have an anemic offense but that's not a reason to pass on a generational talent on defense, which is what Chase Young is. That's like passing on Calvin Johnson because your defense sucks and you already have a couple decent WRs. You simply don't do that sort of thing; it's beyond idiotic. 

 

We do need an influx of talent but also remember that we have several promising rookies in McLauren, Harmon, Holcomb, etc. And obviously we'll see over the rest of the season how Haskins progresses. 

 

If we're on the clock and Young is available you take him. Period. No second thoughts, no trying to get cute. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Dolphins reporter below.  We need both Tua (hopefully he plays) and Burrow to have big games this Sat. 

 

 

 

[SemperFi Skins]

I fear we will also beat the Jets and ultimately they need Chase Young

Field Yates

 

✔@FieldYates

The 2020 NFL Draft order as of Week 10:
1. Bengals: 0-8
2. Redskins: 1-8
3. Jets: 1-7
4. Dolphins: 1-7
5. Falcons: 1-7
6. Giants: 2-7
7. Browns: 2-6
8. Buccaneers: 2-6
9. Broncos: 3-6
10. Raiders (via Bears): 3-5

[Panninho]

Dream scenario outside of getting #1 straight is getting the #2 and Miami to go third. Trade back 1 pick, still get Chase Young plus a couple of picks from Miami - which would obv. get a lot easier if the Bengals fall in love with Burrow.

[skinny21]

If you assign a percentage to Chase Young not turning out to be a bust, I imagine most would go with 80+ or even 90+ %.  Compare that with trading down and getting 2 guys that have a (by the averages) roughly 50-55% of not busting.  So something like 25% they both become busts, 50% one of them is a bust, 25% chance they both succeed.  Makes you stop and think.  

 

hope I have that right - statistics isn’t exactly a strong point for me

 

With that said, I still lean toward our line needing better support from our back 7 (corners especially).  I also put a premium on finding oline help and taking advantage of a high caliber receiving class.  If we can get a decent pick for Williams, and/or sign (or trade for) a good corner in FA, I’m taking Chase if he’s available.  Otherwise, I’m probably trading back if we can get a good haul.  Just so many pressing needs with this team.  
 

And to address the elephant in my post (and in the spirit of talking about percentages), I’m thinking less than 5% chance we take Burrows or Tua if they’re available.  We’d need Allen to be fired, Allen and Snyder to admit they made a mistake, or a coach to be brought in and given full control (possibly a combo of these)... and Haskins would need to show he’s not the guy going forward.  

[mhd24]

My preference(s):

1)  If Chase Young is available, race to the podium.

2)  If Tua or Burrow (I'm sold on both) are available, take one of them.

3)  Okadah

4)  Trade down (WR is so deep)

[MartinC]

16 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Well, if he's been worse than our CB group is Dunbar and that's it.  We've got Jimmy Moreland, who is interesting as a rookie, but that's the entirety.  CB is absolutely on the table.

 

PFR has some advanced stats for defense, and Buffalo's game hasn't been included yet (it updates on Wednesday), but here's the QB rating allowed for various spots.

 

Dunbar - 41 QB rating allowed (likely going up after Buffalo, he allowed a TD)

Norman - 132.7

Moreau - 106.4

Moreland - 90.5

 

That's not good.

 

Also the lack of speed at corner is limiting what we can do defensively. We are pretty much limited to off man and zone. Norman in particular just can't turn and run with NFL receivers. We badly need a cover corner with speed. Absolutely a big need.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

Also the lack of speed at corner is limiting what we can do defensively. We are pretty much limited to off man and zone. Norman in particular just can't turn and run with NFL receivers. We badly need a cover corner with speed. Absolutely a big need.

 

Agreed.  Moreau has speed at least, ran in the 4.3's I think.  As SIP has said, the coaches don't like him much in the Nickel or as a Boundary corner, but at least he's faster than Norman.  And we also know what Norman can't do anymore.

[MartinC]

2 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Agreed.  Moreau has speed at least, ran in the 4.3's I think.  As SIP has said, the coaches don't like him much in the Nickel or as a Boundary corner, but at least he's faster than Norman.  And we also know what Norman can't do anymore.

 

Moreau has looked lost this year so far. He's going to have to show development in camp and preseason next year to stay on the roster.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

10 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Moreau has looked lost this year so far. He's going to have to show development in camp and preseason next year to stay on the roster.

 

I unfortunately also agree.  I'm trying to find a silver lining by saying move him to Norman's spot, but it's not persuasive.  If Norman looks washed, and Moreau looks lost...and nobody else on the roster seems to be pushing for their spots...then our CB group is in trouble and needs an overhaul in 2020.

 

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https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2861250-matt-miller-2020-big-board-quarterback-order-starting-to-take-shape?fbclid=IwAR0CLl94O5r1_aR-3T-E0HjPAksCeelfynStOrDd2CJ9LoOkVTDEVF93tCM#slide1

 

Matt Miller's big board reinforces what you guys have been saying here.  The OT class isn't as good as everyone hoped.  Thomas and Wirfs are now ranked at #16 and #17.

 

His TE rankings are interesting, last I checked at the TE group (September?) the order on that list was about as different as you could get.

[PartyPosse]

Corners are the most screwed in terms of judging their play solely on if they get beat or not. Our safety play coupled with a complete lack of pass rush means they’re essentially on an island playing man. That’s hard to do when a QB has 3-4 seconds and your safeties aren’t making responsible decisions.

[skinny21]

15 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Corners are the most screwed in terms of judging their play solely on if they get beat or not. Our safety play coupled with a complete lack of pass rush means they’re essentially on an island playing man. That’s hard to do when a QB has 3-4 seconds and your safeties aren’t making responsible decisions.

Scheme has been an issue as well, but the bottom line for me is we’re seeing way too much immediate separation.  I think the lack of decent corner play is also a big reason our pass rush has been lacking.  

On a related note, that lofted ball to Norman’s man was just ridiculous corner play.  With plenty of time to adjust, Norman simply fell down and then tackled his guy early.  He’s so concerned with getting beat deep that he’s giving up big cushions and easy receptions (and still getting beat deep).  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

7 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Scheme has been an issue as well, but the bottom line for me is we’re seeing way too much immediate separation.  I think the lack of decent corner play is also a big reason our pass rush has been lacking.  

On a related note, that lofted ball to Norman’s man was just ridiculous corner play.  With plenty of time to adjust, Norman simply fell down and then tackled his guy early.  He’s so concerned with getting beat deep that he’s giving up big cushions and easy receptions (and still getting beat deep).  

Norman is cooked. He’s completely devoid of confidence right now and he’s so reliant on being able to play press and keep up. Now he’s gotta give a 10 yard cushion just so he doesn’t get beat over the top.

 

In fact all of our corners have no choice but to play off because the safeties cheat way too much. I think the pass rush has nothing to do with how the secondary has played because it doesn’t seem too often that the QBs release the ball within 1-2 seconds of being snapped. More often a quarterback has all day back there to pick and choose where he’s going. The pocket never collapses and rarely is a qb flushed out of his comfort zone.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've noticed reading NY papers and PFF, Deandre Baker is having a rough rookie season.  I think @stevemcqueen1was asking about Oliver last week.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-grading-all-32-first-round-picks-after-week-9-2019

 

PICK NO. 30: CB DEANDRE BAKER, NEW YORK GIANTS

2019 overall grade: 34.5

Things are just not going well for DeAndre Baker in New York. He was targeted nine times in Week 9, and he allowed six receptions for 113 yards and two touchdowns, allowing a passer rating of 149.3 in the process. Through nine weeks, no cornerback has surrendered more touchdowns than Baker, who has given up seven, and no cornerback with at least 25 targets has surrendered a higher passer rating. Baker earned a coverage grade of 29.7for his work in Week 9, which is his third sub-30.0 coverage grade this year.

 

PICK NO. 9: DI ED OLIVER, BUFFALO BILLS

2019 overall grade: 63.3

The Bills’ first-round interior defensive lineman played only 18 snaps in Week 9 against the Washington Redskins. Along with the rest of his defense, he stayed quiet in the run game, but he still managed to produce a quarterback hurry from one of his nine pass-rushing snaps. Oliver has now tallied at least one quarterback pressure in seven of his eight professional games up to this point.