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The Jay Gruden Curve (if there isn’t one, there should be)


kleese

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42 minutes ago, GatorEye said:

Been a loooong time since I've posted here, but this season's mess was enough to bring me back after a long absence. The ONLY way I would agree in bringing Jay back is under the argument that we would be unable to hire a better coach. I don't necessarily believe that, but that's the only argument to me that can reasonably be argued.  I don't have the particulars to back them up (which is admittedly a lazy way to support your point), but everyone knows these are facts.  We are horrible on primetime games, we seem horrible coming out of bye weeks, we seem horrible any time we have extra time to prepare, we are horrible coming out of halftime when you have time to adjust, we are horrible at scoring on drives coming out of halftime, horrible scoring in the third quarter, horrible with penalties, and horrible at clock management.  That's all coaching. So either Gruden is horrible himself at these things or he's assembled a staff that is horrible at these things.  Regardless, I never hear anyone say that Gruden outcoached the guy on the other sideline or that the other team has to step up their game because Gruden and his staff are such wizards at coaching, scheming, and adapting on the fly.

 

The team is a reflection of their coach. No fire. The past few years when we had a chance to go into the playoffs with win and you're in games...we played flat and uninspired.  Just like Jay looks on the sideline. He constantly looks and seems befuddled.

 

He's 35-42. A good coach can get the absolute most he can from the talent he has. I can't believe we got the best out of the talent that is/has been here especially with the talent on offense a couple years ago when DJax was still here. An Old Bum Phillips quote... "He can take his'n and beat your'n and take your'n and beat his'n". Jay is not that guy...he loses both games.

 

Jay is not the entire problem, but he sure isn't part of the solution.  We need an overhaul from top to bottom. Only a complete change gives any chance at changing the culture and giving the fans any hope for excitement in the foreseeable future.

 

HTTR

Excellent comment that everyone needs to read.  Especially your point with the Bum Phillips quote!  He would lose both games.  The Texans game alone ….a 10 yd. slant across the middle with 19 secs. left was wide open and then spike the ball  with no timouts...Hopkins kick was right down the middle and would have cleared the goalpost at that distance....instead he threw to where they were covering(sidelines) with no timeouts and game over from  short 65 yds out FG try. That one game alone would position us for a wild card but we are too beat up anyway with our injury history.   Great points about Gruden though.

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4 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I’m not sure i can remember what 10-6 here is like.... keep jay ditch bruce. Wonder if we can still pull that off if Jay gets us into th playoffs.

We won't beat Tenn or Phila. with our O-line....We just pulled one out in the last minutes after never leading the entire game...and that team is 4-10....not 8-6 Tenn or the 7-7 Eagles that just beat the Rams.  Our OL is a mixture of injured players and players that couldn't make it on any other team roster.  Jay has to go too!.  McVay's promotion to be our new HC was the move that should have transpired last year.

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You don't need a bigger sample size to know what you are going to get with Jay. Jay can coach here another 5 years and you will probably have the same result you did in his first 5.  Jay has a ceiling and that's where he will hoover around.  Maybe a little luck and he breaks the 10 win plateau one year, the next year he will slip back to a sub. 500.

 

Jay and Bruce are coming back, they excuse is already built in.    Bruce and Jay are going to approach 2019 as if the Skins would've been a 2018 playoff team, if it weren't for the injuries.  They are going to approach 2019 with the win now approach.  I full expect us to sign a veteran QB to be out potential starter. Probably, a short deal since Alex's contract will limit what we can do.  Jay is going to want to have a veteran QB, not wanting to go into 2019 with a dependable QB.  I don't think we will know about Alex until 2020 and by then, we will probably move on from him.   I don't think the Skins will draft a franchise QB in 2019 because there probably really won't be one. 

 

The Skins are going to try to win in 2019.  I think the bottom will fall out and reality will settle in. The bottom falls out next year and we have double digit losses and at least a Top 5 pick. I seriously think, we could flirt with 13 or more losses.  2019 will finally be enough for Dan to make a change, especially when his stadium will be mostly empty.

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There are a couple of reasons why I would get rid of Jay:

 

a) I can’t think of a game where he won the chess match. Where he outsmarted and won purely because he outmaneuvered his opponent. 

 

b) he has thrown in the towel too often. He has given up on games and halves. I want a never say die attitude. 

 

C) Yesterday, they said Johnson was 60% up to speed because the pair had been together since Tampa. That was over ten years ago! You’d have thought the system would have evolved. Gibbs used to say his playbook altered about 20% every year. If the Tampa and DC are at all similar other than core concepts that’d be ridiculous. Moreover, it would speak to the inability or unwillingness to adjust his scheme to maximize his player’s strengths. 

 

Case in point, Alex, Colt, and Johnson were all mobile. Jay game planned as if they were Dan Marino. 

 

D) Yesterday his players fought for him. Against the Giants and Eagles the did not. They rolled over. They rejected extra practice. When the games mattered most Gruden failed to get them to step up. 

 

More, this team never hustles. There never seems to be any urgency. Not in two minute situations. Not ever. 

 

E) They weren’t good at the start of the season. Even before the injuries the Redskins looked constipated on offense. They ran, but more and more, I’m convinced that was Alex checking out of pass plays. 

 

F) Gruden has been here five years. We should be a well oiled machine. Not leading the league in penalties and wasted time outs. 

 

Actually, maybe Jay deserves a pass in the wasted time outs. The confusion is understandable given his QBs lack of experience with his team and the playbook. 

 

G) I have enough reasons to reach Z. 

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Ed, I understand that the volume of injuries have made the past two seasons difficult ones to really evaluate Jay.

 

But at the same time, I just get the sense that as long as we are somehow battling for that 6th playoff spot at 7-7 or so in December, that you are going to be fine with keeping Jay forever. 

 

And a lot of it is your own lack of confidence in the front office, whether its Bruce or someone else to find someone better. Again, understandable, to a point.

 

But what would it personally take for you to want to move on from him? 

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I’d venture a guess that fans of every team, including those that regularly make the playoffs, can come up with a long list of what they believe to be coaching problems.

 

The way some describe Jay, it’s a wonder he can wake up, tie his shoes and make it to Redskins Park.

 

I realize everyone is clamoring for the hard nosed coach that takes no S, calls all the best plays, has the best game plans, great clock management, and the list goes on.  I’m just wondering who the heck that is and how do we get them to come to Ashburn, and once they are here, how are they going to sustain their high level of coaching prowess?

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5 hours ago, rabidskin said:

We won't beat Tenn or Phila. with our O-line....We just pulled one out in the last minutes after never leading the entire game...and that team is 4-10....not 8-6 Tenn or the 7-7 Eagles that just beat the Rams.  Our OL is a mixture of injured players and players that couldn't make it on any other team roster.  Jay has to go too!.  McVay's promotion to be our new HC was the move that should have transpired last year.

 

isnt the jax defense the best out of the three? What happened was johnson figured it out and put a string of plays together and was clutch in leading us to a victory against a top ten defense. We didn’t “pull it out after never leading”. Awe scored first. What happened is the rams got exposed by the bears. Goff is overrated. What happened was the titans were playing a giants team with no reason to give a damn. I know they kicked us while we were down, but playing against a divisional opponent which a chance to knock them out of the playoffs is motivation. What happened was, we put johnson in and we had instant success moving the ball.

 

I feel good about our chances. I think jay is an average to above average coach, above garret and shurmur, and there aren’t a lot of great alternatives available right now.

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I am sorry no,  I cannot imagine another season with Jay as HC.  Watching him over the years, he is more like an actor who sways in whatever direction the current is going.   Jay is likable.  I would enjoy hanging out with Jay and having a beer. I would leave the time with him feeling really good. No doubt.  He is a guy who knows how to get along.

 

He apparently says the right things to Brucie and Danny and mostly just goes along or he would have been replaced by now.  Bruce likes him.  They probably drink some Coor's together and lament their bad luck and misfortune devising how they are going to right the ship.  And Danny probably joins them. And since  Bruce is Danny's head puppeteer and ass kisser, Jay stays.    

 

Jay should not be calling plays.  He is predictable and in some of these games the D is moving in the direction of the called play automatically because it is so recognizable having been run over and over again. Plus the opposing D has countless tapes on the same ol' same ol'.   Jay never takes a chance to really capitalize on momentum.  His clock management is abysmal.   And he is like a deer in headlights at times during games.   

 

  While Jay may be the exact opposite of his older brother Jon who is an overrated prima donna IMO, he is Captain Get Along.  The only modicum of fire I have ever seen out of Jay in his tenure here is when McCloughlin was also here and they teamed up to get RG3 benched to insert Jay's choice in Cousin's.   Jay likes the traditional drop back passing QB.   And not that he was wrong.   But his overall way of being, how he lives his life,  is going along, which lends itself to caring way too much about the good opinion of other people/players,  but that sort of tendency is not powerful, and if you are a HC in the NFL it might get you to a number of 8-8, 9-7 seasons at best.     

 

And guys like Jay who don't rock the boat, rarely take stands.   And if you are a HC in the NFL and you have this type of character, well you don't improvise from game plans because it may rock the boat.  And yet Jay will be whatever you want him to be.   So he acts upset when they lose but a day later he is doing the get along, the whole I'm a witty guy interviews with the press, etc.  

 

And all the injuries?  It is not a coincidence.  Jay is lax.  He is not demanding.  The rumors of players not wanting to practice?  Ridiculous yet I believe it.  It boils down to what is expected.  

 

I will tell you something else here.  Our Offensive guys were not ready to start this season.  Jay, should have played his O starters, like all the other teams, in a number of quarters.  You get injuries in part by not being in condition. You get injuries when you have no synchronicity between receivers and the QB, and your hanging receivers out there.  These guys that should have been made to practice, stay after practice, get the timing down, get in the grind so you can survive and thrive over a 16 game stretch.  Jay never, ever pushes  that.  NO.  We were bringing in a seasoned pro who did not need that.  A plug and play guy.  Bull ****!  IMO Jay is part of the reason Alex Smith did so poorly and had such an abysmal start.  He was never in sync with his receivers and part of that is on Jay, the HC, Chief play caller and game statistician.  

 

For me Jay can go.  Lets get a coach in here with balls.  But that will never happen as long as Bruce and Danny's fragile little ego's meddle in football operations.   The only fiery guy, who actually made it feel different around here,  was dumped because he stepped on the fragility of BA and probably Danny boy.  

 

 

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Jay Gruden shouldn't be graded on a curve. He has helped in some way assemble this roster of injury prone players. 

 

But he also shouldn't be held solely accountable for the team's record in the past 5 years. He is a mixed bag. I personally believe he is a head coach in the NFL. And in a better organization probably does quite well. He certainly has shortcomings... clock management, situational football at times and sometimes this odd obsession with throwing the ball no matter what (granted, that's been less in play this year). But he has an overall good eye for talent (I'll overlook Bibbs' release for the time being) and scheming guys to get open. 

 

I think with Gruden its simple: He's tied to Bruce Allen. If Allen stays, there is zero reason to remove Jay Gruden as the head coach. In fact, removing him is ore of a detriment to the team than keeping him.

 

If Allen goes then Gruden goes. Gruden is Allen's hire, and a leftover of the previous regime, that if restarting with a new GM, needs to be purged. Some of the assistants can stay, they aren't as involved in day to day activities as the HC. But if Allen goes, Gruden has to go.

 

And that's my feelings on Gruden. If Allen somehow stays, Gruden really needs to stay. If Allen goes, Gruden goes. And it's not through any real fault of his own in my opinion. Just the lay of the land.

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1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Jay Gruden shouldn't be graded on a curve. He has helped in some way assemble this roster of injury prone players. 

 

But he also shouldn't be held solely accountable for the team's record in the past 5 years. He is a mixed bag. I personally believe he is a head coach in the NFL. And in a better organization probably does quite well. He certainly has shortcomings... clock management, situational football at times and sometimes this odd obsession with throwing the ball no matter what (granted, that's been less in play this year). But he has an overall good eye for talent (I'll overlook Bibbs' release for the time being) and scheming guys to get open. 

 

I think with Gruden its simple: He's tied to Bruce Allen. If Allen stays, there is zero reasosn to remove Jay Gruden as the head coach. In fact, removing him is ore of a detriment to the team than replacing him.

 

If Allen goes then Gruden goes. Gruden is Allen's hire, and a leftover of the previous regime, that if restarting with a new GM, needs to be purged. Some of the assistants can stay, they aren't as involved in day to day activities as the HC. But if Allen goes, Gruden has to go.

 

And that's my feelings on Gruden. If Allen somehow stays, Gruden really needs to stay. If Allen goes, Gruden goes. And it's not through any real fault of his own in my opinion. Just the lay of the land.

 

 

I agree with 100%. I like Jay. I think he has a much better HC than people give him credit for. I have gone through why a 100 times so not doing it again here anyway. But the decision to keep Jay or not has very little to do with him and more to do with the best way to structure a franchise. 

 

Bruce and Jay are linked. If Bruce stays then Jay is our best chance with Bruce here. If Bruce goes then the new GM needs to bring in their own HC. It really is that simple. 

 

I doubt dan will ever really do this, but the right way to move forward is to let everyone go - and I mean everyone. Pick a new President who picks their own GM. Those two then pick the HC. If any of those positions are filled by people currently on the team, fine. But it needs to be the incoming managements decisions not someone thrust on them by Dan as a condition of taking the job. Every change in leadership has had some string forced onto the incoming team. It's a recipe for failure. 

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9 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The roster isn’t bad.  It’s average-ish.  Which is the results we’ve been having. A little bit below average.  

 

The coaches are able to get exactly the level of talent that’s on the roster, maybe even less at times. 

 

Lets take the last 2 years:

 

Kirk and Alex are both top 15 QBs.  Trent, Rouille/Long Moses and Scherff are a solid if not spectacular foundation to the OL.

 

Reed/Crowder/CT/VD might not be the most scary weapons out there but if used correctly, they can be dangerous.  I ask you, why didn’t Reed get targets early this season when he was healthy?  Bad scheme.

 

On defense, they have Allen, Payne, Kerrigan, Norman, Swearinger, Dunny. ILB and DB are a problem.  

 

But the roster isn’t awful.  It’s ok. 

 

When we had Kirk, Garçon, Djax, the ofdense was better.  That 2016 team with a good coach wins 11 games minimum.  With a top flight coach it’s a super bowl contending team.  Note: a good coach doesn’t sabotage his team by hiring Joe Barry. Hell, every coach not Jay Gruden was smarter than that for years.  

 

Gruden is a bad coach with an average roster and they have slightly under average results

 

 

 

You can't on one hand say the injuries are no excuse and the on the other hand say the roster is decent or how did you say it average-ish. The roster is **** because while there is some talent much of that talent is perennially injured. That makes it a **** roster because if they are not on the field then they cannot help the team. If they can't help the team they might as well be a zero. And that has very little to do with Jay. The injuries are directly related to two things: 

 

1. Horrible facilities. The facilities for the Redskins are some of the worst based on reports we have heard - both from players and others outside the organization. 

2. Roster construction relying on players with injury histories to be major contributors. 

 

Neither of those are on Jay. The facilities are all on dan. And Bruce makes the roster. Does he make 100% of all decisions? No. I am sure he gets some input from Jay. But it's not the daily decisions that make or break the team. It's the more major decisions and general roster construction. Bruce has made it clear he is the final say. And you can see it in the decisions being made. For example, it is well known that Jay did not want to lose both D Jax and Garcon. Yet, Bruce let them both walk. That is just one example we know of. I am certain if we peeked behind the curtain Jay get's over-ruled more than he should. And I am certain Bruce has no strategy. 

 

To that end, I could not disagree more on the 2016 roster. That was not a SB team. It was a PO team probably. I agree Jay's teams come out flat in big games. It is one of the reasons I am Ok with them moving on. But saying that is a potential SB other than in the broadest of terms - all teams have a chance until they do not - is a huge exaggeration. That defense was horrid. There was not enough talent on that D to beat a HS team. We keep going through DCs blaming them for poor performance - to some extent warranted. But Isn't it also possible that the players are not good? Look at this D. The Dline is very good. After that, is there anyone that scares you on D? Who is a player not from Alabama that other teams have to game plan for? Maybe Kerrigan or Preston Smith. After that, who? The entire back half of the D is just OK. They have flashes but again they are not healthy enough. People have said the D has remained mostly healthy - that's actually not true. It's not the MASH unit the Off is, but the DBs have been dinged up most of the year. So even the players that have shown some ability are not on the field enough together to be a real until. Just like on off they are just a bunch of players. it's hard to build team chemistry when players are always missing. To me, that's mostly on bruce. 

 

But let's say it is the DC - you are blaming Jay 100% for Joe Barry. Bruce Allen has made it clear he is the man in change. You don;t think it's just a little odd that Jay would actually want Joe Barry over Wade Phillips? I find it much more feasible that Jay wanted Wade but that his stronger personality did not go with Bruce and Dan because they are certain they know more than everyone. And I said this then BTW. There is difference between accepting who your boss selects and actually selecting that person yourself. And before more come with the macho BS of - Jay should have more guts, just stop it. It's easy to say that **** sitting behind a computer. Let me see you do that with your livelihood and family interests on the line. 

 

And Jay and the coaches have made players better. During the 15 yrs of Dan before Jay got here virtually zero players developed. Jay has indeed developed players - and quite a few too. 

 

Is Jay blameless for the lack of success? No, of course not. I have outlined my reasons so not doing it here again. But the majority of the blame lies at Dan sand Bruce's feet. And since we can't get rid of Dan, the next best thing is to get rid of bruce and hope dan gets lucky and finds someone competent that he will listen to and get out of the way of.

 

Last but not least, I would love to see how Jay can do with a competent owner and GM. I am pretty certain we will get the chance. 

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11 hours ago, kleese said:

 

I would agree about turning over play calling. O’Connell seems to be a guy people think is really sharp. Might be good for Jay to make him the official OC with play calling duties. If he comes back it will be his sixth year which is like a twelfth year anywhere else... It would be a natural time for Jay to assume more of a figurehead role. 

 

Jay Gruden is not figurehead material. Joe Gibbs could get away with that when he turned the playcalling duties over to Al Saunders (something he shouldn't have done). Not Jay Gruden. 

 

If you're a head coach who was hired based on your offensive knowledge but can't be trusted to call plays OR manage the clock ... why are you a head coach? I've never understood this argument. 

 

I think almost everyone would agree that Jay is the FAR lesser problem with this franchise. I would not throw a fit if they kept him AFTER firing/reassigning/ritually shunning Bruce Allen. I just don't think he's at all special and has far too many flaws on the intangibles side of things to make some huge effort to keep him around. 

 

But yeah, I'll settle for Bruce at this point. I gotsta have that BA scalp at LEAST. 

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I like Jay, think he would be a good OC but I think his time with this group is coming to an end.

 

Offensively - I think he deferred too much to Callahan who has a major say in the running game plan. It took Jay until his 5th year (this year) to tell Callahan we will start using a FB. The running game has been a problem from day one and I blame the lack of adjustment on Callahan.  Now it seems to be running AP out of shotgun and not the I. Passing wise, I like Jay's approach but he needs a good processing QB like Cousins. Identify matchups pre snap, post snap read and if a long shot is there take it, if not take what the D is giving. Move the chains, stay positive even if its a 4 yd dump off.

 

Defensively - didnt have the players or committed resources first couple of years, now has a defense where draft and money was spent on it and it is improved.

 

I dont mind keeping Jay for one more year but it really depends on when we go all in on our rookie QB. If its 2020, let Jay stay in 2019 and take the lumps. I would like a new GM in there this year to evaluate for a year then make the change for 2020 with new HC and new high draft rookie QB.

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12 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I’m not sure i can remember what 10-6 here is like.... 

 

You could make the case that the fan base hasn't been able to truly enjoy a 10-win season in almost 20 years. The two times since the turn of the millennium that we've won 10 games (2005 and 2012) we did so with 5- and 7-game winning streaks and secured the 10th win on the final Sunday of the season. In both cases, rather than actually enjoying the record we as fans were quickly focusing on a playoff game 6 days later...

 

Back in 1999 we actually clinched the division in the second-to-last week of the season. We didn't win our 10th game until a meaningless week 17 game, but it was more relaxed and enjoyable because we had already been thinking playoffs for a week leading up to that 10th win. 

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It's unfortunate that McVay got away when he did because I would have liked to see what he could have done with in the current situation with the QB mess.  Jay Gruden seems to be another Norv Turner in the making.  He knows the X's & O's, he can draw up a play, but is there anything we can point to in his five seasons here that would suggest it was his coaching that led to a win or string of wins?  

 

Players seem to like them, but then we also get reports about how soft practices are, and how they are always goofing around and taking things light. Zero urgency?  Maybe those are some of the reasons players like him. (the wrong reasons)

 

I don't think Jay Gruden is the absolute worst person you could have as a head coach, but I just don't see or better yet can't point to anything in his tenure here that you could say "THAT is why we need Jay Gruden"

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11 hours ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Dude no, just no. We were 0-14 since 2017 before today’s game when trailing at halftime. He is an absolutely abysmal in game coach and allows players to talk **** about the fanbase. Absolutely not.

 

While facts are facts and stats are stats, that started once McVay left for the Rams head coaching job.  I think Jay's play calling is flat out horrible and don't get me started on half time adjustments and clock management.  He did get the Bengals to a top 10 offense as a coordinator, so I think with the right talent he can have success calling plays. 

 

But personally, I'd rather us find another offensive genius in the making (like McVay) to be the offensive coordinator and call the plays.  For what it's worth, he did just call a game in which a 4th string QB, literally off the street, got a W against the #6 defense in the NFL.  With two o-linemen picked off the street, minus starting WRs and TE. 

 

Should that afford him sticking around another year?  I dunno anymore.  What I do know is until Snyder makes the necessary changes needed at the top of the organization, we are not going to get any great head coaching candidates or coordinators and always be stuck with average/slightly above average staff.  I said it in another thread, Dan needs to fire Bruce and hire a new President with zero ties to the organization whose job does not allow him final say on the draft and FAs, only providing support to the new GM hired (another person with zero ties to the organization).  The GM will have the final say over player personnel and work directly with the head coach. 

 

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that Jay needs a competent offensive coordinator calling those plays in order to maximize his head coaching ability.  I think his system works when we have the right weapons and stay healthy.  And when healthy and with weapons it works better having a stud offensive coordinator calling the plays (like we did with McVay). 

 

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Out of mild curiosity:

 

How many would be okay with Bruce Allen here and Jay gone? Do you feel that's a good move?

 

How about Bruce gone and Jay here? Is that a good move?

 

Please note: This isn't a loaded question. Just trying to get a general feeling on everyone's position here for conversational purposes.

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8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Out of mild curiosity:

 

How many would be okay with Bruce Allen here and Jay gone? Do you feel that's a good move?

 

How about Bruce gone and Jay here? Is that a good move?

Bruce Allen here and Jay gone to me is the absolute worst option.  To me, they are tied at the hip.

 

Jay here with Bruce gone is fine to me if in the event Bruce’s replacement sees it that way.  But Bruce’s replacement has to be someone thats indifferent to Jay and makes that decision on his own, rather than being influenced by Snyder.  Wishful thinking, I know.

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7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Out of mild curiosity:

 

How many would be okay with Bruce Allen here and Jay gone? Do you feel that's a good move?

 

How about Bruce gone and Jay here? Is that a good move?

 

Please note: This isn't a loaded question. Just trying to get a general feeling on everyone's position here for conversational purposes.

 

I want Bruce gone and replaced as President by someone with zero ties to the organization and does not have final say over draft picks and free agents.  Then I want us to create the GM spot again and hire someone with zero ties to the organization and who works with the head coach and does the drafting/FA duties.

 

If that GM wants to bring in a new head coach to replace Jay, so be it.  If he likes Jay and his system and wants to retain him, I'm fine with that too. 

 

As long as Bruce is gone and we get an actual GM again, I'll be fine with whatever that GM decides to do as far as the head coach is concerned. 

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14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Out of mild curiosity:

 

How many would be okay with Bruce Allen here and Jay gone? Do you feel that's a good move?

 

How about Bruce gone and Jay here? Is that a good move?

 

Please note: This isn't a loaded question. Just trying to get a general feeling on everyone's position here for conversational purposes.

 

I think a new GM is needed above all else at this point.  Bruce Allen had the biggest hand in building what the current product is.  It's not all bad, but it hasn't progressed past the .500ish level his entire time here.   

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