A New Beginning - Embrace The Noodle

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, NickyJ said:

I'll quote his post for you:

 

I don't see anything in there about his contract. Do you?

 

He literally says “when we were losing”.  Meaning that it was the only time we were down in a game that he believed we could come back.

[profusion]

No sense in throwing the towel on Colt after 1.5 games, anymore than it made sense to give up on Alex after the Indy game.

 

This team is going to be wildly up and down all year. No consistency.

[JSSkinz]

I wrote much earlier in the week I was afraid Jay would get pass happy but I'm not sure if he's to blame because it's obvious we couldn't run the ball against the Cowboys and I'm not sure we will be able to for the duration of the season. 

 

The winning formula we had of being a balanced team has evaporated and it didn't start this past Thursday, it started when the O line got injured, just look at AP's last 4 games, we are 1-3 in those games and the 1 win was the Tampa game where we scored 16 points.

 

Before the game started I would have said there's no way we have a chance to beat Dallas without a semi-effective run game but even with 3 picks and no run game if the defense doesn't give up just 1 of those 2 explosive TD's that's a 1 possession game and we have a chance to win, maybe that's one little positive we can take from this excruciating loss.

 

I'm surprised so many didn't know Colt had no practice time, it was known all week we were just doing 2 walkthroughs and he would have no live reps.

It's not an excuse for the loss but I think a little practice will be helpful for everyone.

 

Think about the drive in the 3rd after Dallas got the 40 yard TD and we were down 17-13, we drive 40 yards to the Dallas 32 and we have 2 players simultaneously false start on 3rd and 1, could that have happened because Harris and Sprinkle arent used to Colts cadence or maybe they both went stupid at the same time, who knows but practice is gonna help Colt, to what extent who knows but at least the offense will be more comfortable with the minutiae .

[Wyvern]

Frankly, if the Skins can get decent protection out of the right side of the line (especially RT Morgan Moses) I think McCoy will be a decent QB.  That's his preferred side from which to emerge from the pocket and make a decent pass.

 

Problem is... Moses really hasn't performed that well, all season. ...And Bergstrom???

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, JSSkinz said:

The winning formula we had of being a balanced team has evaporated and it didn't start this past Thursday, it started when the O line got injured, just look at AP's last 4 games, we are 1-3 in those games and the 1 win was the Tampa game where we scored 16 points.

Solid post that will probably fall on some deaf ears.  Many of us loudly wondered when the running game would disappear due to defenses loading up to stop it and/or Oline injuries or AP falling off a cliff physically, the impact that would have on our offense.  Add to that not being entirely sold on our defense and their ability to keep getting turnovers at a high clip. 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

On 11/22/2018 at 8:22 PM, theTruthTeller said:

So, after watching Colt, if we lose to the Eagles next week, do you make a change?  In that scenario, we'd likely be in a three-way tie for first.

No way. If we lost another one after that, you could make the case for getting a look at someone. But, to me, it would have to be more of a prospect than a 32-year old who wasn't on a team until Thanksgiving week. If we had a rookie then I'd consider it. 

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, NickyJ said:

I'll quote his post for you:

 

I don't see anything in there about his contract. Do you? Talk about moving goalposts lol

 

The only thing I see is that someone wanting to have a shot at winning even if they are behind. Which, of course, is not what your strawman was, which went something along the lines of " People preferring to lose while "feeling" like they could win, and not enjoying winning because it "feels" like they could lose"

 

People don't prefer to lose. Nowhere did anyone say that. Like I said, nice strawman. Or just flat out being dishonest. I'll let you pick.

 

As for his contract, unless you have 90% of ES on ignore, it's been a really large topic and it's really hard to have missed it. It was big in the Spring, even bigger once the games began and Alex's play was not up to the contract, and has gotten HUGE since his injury, and subsequently everyone finally figure out how much he is costing us, how much is guaranteed, and how much it's going to really screw us. If Alex was making like 10 million a year, and only 35% was guaranteed, it would be one thing, but it's a very different story.

 

Colt is a backup and being paid like one. Alex, played like a back up, but has the 9th largest contract in the NFL. The difference between carbon and a diamond (no RGIII quotes, please). That "nuance" thing that wit33 likes to go on about and whatnot.

[NoCalMike]

23 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

And maybe Alex could rediscover the magic of 2017, his career year, I don't know. But I think based on what we've seen so far, his age, and his injury, I think its unlikely. 

 

 

I agree that neither guys is "the guy" but we have evidence to show you can build something around Alex that he excels in in an extended time frame.  His last couple seasons on the 49ers and his time in KC, Alex Smith was a successful starting NFL QB.  So there is a formula for him to succeed and lead a team to the playoffs.  The roster is not built like the teams he had success on, yet....might never be for his entire time hear, and to me that would be the bigger disappointment than Alex Smith himself.

 

On the other hand you have McCoy who has the flash and pep in his step, but the things he does wrong cost teams games, and his turnovers will hurt a team even more that doesn't have a defense to keep it close.  This team has turned back into 2017 form in a matter of a month, except they score even less.

 

 

[NickyJ]

52 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

The only thing I see is that someone wanting to have a shot at winning even if they are behind. Which, of course, is not what your strawman was, which went something along the lines of " People preferring to lose while "feeling" like they could win, and not enjoying winning because it "feels" like they could lose"

 

People don't prefer to lose. Nowhere did anyone say that. Like I said, nice strawman. Or just flat out being dishonest. I'll let you pick.

 

As for his contract, unless you have 90% of ES on ignore, it's been a really large topic and it's really hard to have missed it. It was big in the Spring, even bigger once the games began and Alex's play was not up to the contract, and has gotten HUGE since his injury, and subsequently everyone finally figure out how much he is costing us, how much is guaranteed, and how much it's going to really screw us. If Alex was making like 10 million a year, and only 35% was guaranteed, it would be one thing, but it's a very different story.

 

Colt is a backup and being paid like one. Alex, played like a back up, but has the 9th largest contract in the NFL. The difference between carbon and a diamond (no RGIII quotes, please). That "nuance" thing that wit33 likes to go on about and whatnot.

So to answer my question, you couldn't find anything about contracts in the post I was referring to. You couldn't find anything in my own post about contracts. Instead, you're using my post that had nothing to do with contracts.....to complain about contracts.

 

Righto then. I'll let you grind your axe on your own.

 

------------------------------------------------------

 

With our chances at the playoffs on the line, I do hope that McCoy improves with more practice and can carry us, be it for the rest of the season or even next season. But after watching him throw into triple coverage, I just don't see how that will be something he'll learn in 1 week instead of 8 years. If he can't improve on it and avoid game finishing mistakes like that, I certainly don't see him being an improvement over what we had in Smith.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

 

I agree that neither guys is "the guy" but we have evidence to show you can build something around Alex that he excels in in an extended time frame. 

 

I've always been most interested in what I can learn from what Jay or the FO think via what beat guys are hearing.  I was the same way with Alex's predecessor.  And it wasn't about hearing what fit my preconceptions but about what they were thinking.   Since they are the decision makers.  And judging by what three different beat guys have said as to what they've heard privately from the coaching staff, they've been unhappy with Alex's play versus thinking hey maybe he's not the most exciting player but we can win with this dude.  Then I'll kick in Grant Paulsen said one person he talked to in the front office is also concerned about how this injury is going to impact Alex as a player.  

 

Then you also got this.   And if the season doesn't end well and Dan gets into his PR mode to sell the fan base -- judging by the 180 I've noticed from the fans (they were excited in the off season) about Alex's play, I think even Dan realizes its tough to sell hey hang in there for Alex's comeback at 35 or 36 years old.  

 

I think for Alex specifically to be the guy, he needs to have the best case scenario as to healing from that injury where he goes to camp and is ready for the season.  I think a midseason comeback or a 2020 comeback won't spell good things for his career here.  It's real odd situation for him and the team.

 

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

 

On the other hand you have McCoy who has the flash and pep in his step, but the things he does wrong cost teams games, and his turnovers will hurt a team even more that doesn't have a defense to keep it close.  This team has turned back into 2017 form in a matter of a month, except they score even less.

 

 

 

This is also an interesting one from what beat guys have said about what they've heard about Colt over the years.  Among that stuff was Jay and maybe even Bruce too thought Colt could be the answer when the predecessor was headed out the door.  And that Colt is a different QB from 2014.  On and on and on.  Why did they trade for Alex anyway?  I am guessing it was about concern about Colt's injury history, PR with fans, or someone key in the FO disagreed or all or some of the above. 

 

If Colt doesn't perform though, I don't think it will make them warm up more to Alex but feel more panicky about finding another option. That's just a guess on my end.  The reason why I bring up Rex-Beck is it feels a lot like that.  Again the problem isn't as severe in one way but more severe in another.  Colt and Alex are clearly better (though not 100% sure in Colt's case) than Rex and Beck.  The yin and the yang via the ultra risk taker QB versus the ultra conservative one.  It feels like a temporary situation like it did then.  It's worse by that Alex's cap hit is enormous if the dude isn't playing.

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, NickyJ said:

So to answer my question, you couldn't find anything about contracts in the post I was referring to. You couldn't find anything in my own post about contracts. Instead, you're using my post that had nothing to do with contracts.....to complain about contracts.

 

I was adding a "nuance" to the discussion. I had already addressed your other points, I just decided to add another one. Because there are a lot of them. Didn't mean to overwhelm you. I'm deep in "nuance".

 

1 hour ago, NickyJ said:

Righto then. I'll let you grind your axe on your own.

 

------------------------------------------------------

 

With our chances at the playoffs on the line, I do hope that McCoy improves with more practice and can carry us, be it for the rest of the season or even next season. But after watching him throw into triple coverage, I just don't see how that will be something he'll learn in 1 week instead of 8 years. If he can't improve on it and avoid game finishing mistakes like that, I certainly don't see him being an improvement over what we had in Smith.

 

He does things better than Smith. Smith does things better than him. Honestly, a combination of the 2 would be the best fit. Colt is a career backup for a reason. And as far as Alex is concerned, his play this year was backup caliber. Neither have been good. With Colt, maybe a couple of weeks in a actual practice will help, but honestly, he has had those chances before and has not been consistently good for any length of time. But maybe he gets hot for a few games and it's enough for this year. We'll have to see.

[MariusVT]

Realistically if Colt can't cobble together a win vs the eagles, we're probably looking at a ceiling of 8-8 for the season, and 6-10 certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.  If we want to lock up a playoff spot we're going to have to sweep the eagles and take the last Giants game, then split with Titans and jags. It's going to take 10 wins.

[Suffolk_Skins]

30 minutes ago, MariusVT said:

Realistically if Colt can't cobble together a win vs the eagles, we're probably looking at a ceiling of 8-8 for the season, and 6-10 certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.  If we want to lock up a playoff spot we're going to have to sweep the eagles and take the last Giants game, then split with Titans and jags. It's going to take 10 wins.

 

Doubt it

[Morneblade]

6 minutes ago, Suffolk_Skins said:

 

Doubt it

 

It might, after the NO game, Dallas has 4 winnable games.

Philly, @Indy, Tampa and @NY. Hardly a murderers row. That would put Dallas @ 10-6.

[JSSkinz]

If everything goes as it seems it will in tomorrows games (Carolina and Minnesota win) we will be 1/2 game out of the wildcard, if Seattle beats Carolina then we will have the last wildcard spot going into next week.

 

As bad as it is there is still a lot to play for, the wildcard will be a 9 win team and we have the tiebreaker on Carolina and a solid conference record at 6-3 which sets up us nicely down the stretch.

 

If we don't suck.

Just now, Morneblade said:

 

It might, after the NO game, Dallas has 4 winnable games.

Philly, @Indy, Tampa and @NY. Hardly a murderers row. That would put Dallas @ 10-6.

I agree except for Indy, they are a good team and people are starting to see it, been lights out since Mack came back and they were already playing good defense.

 

I can see them catching the Texans and winning that division, they play one more time this year.

[Morneblade]

2 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

If everything goes as it seems it will in tomorrows games (Carolina and Minnesota win) we will be 1/2 game out of the wildcard, if Seattle beats Carolina then we will have the last wildcard spot going into next week.

 

As bad as it is there is still a lot to play for, the wildcard will be a 9 win team and we have the tiebreaker on Carolina and a solid conference record at 6-3 which sets up us nicely down the stretch.

 

If we don't suck.

I agree except for Indy, they are a good team and people are starting to see it, been lights out since Mack came back and they were already playing good defense.

 

I can see them catching the Texans and winning that division, they play one more time this year.

 

Indy can beat them, and that's likely their toughest game left. But Indy is .500 and while I think they are better than that, it's a winable game for Dallas. One thing Luck does, is give the ball away, sometimes in bunches.

[BleedBNG]

38 minutes ago, MariusVT said:

If we want to lock up a playoff spot we're going to have to sweep the eagles and take the last Giants game, then split with Titans and jags. It's going to take 10 wins.

 

Not necessarily. I would say more like 9 games. Assuming the Cowboys and the Bears win their divisions, here's a setup of the four remaining teams that have a shot in the NFC. All other teams have 4 or less wins, meaning they would have to win 5 of their next 6 games (doubtful). The teams on the right are the ones that have more than a 50% chance of winning against the team on the left. I put up the Eagles anyway to show what they're up against.

 

eagles (4-6-0) - rams, texans, cowboys, redskins
vikings (5-4-1) - packers, patriots, bears (3 losses would be 8-7-1)
panthers (6-4-0) - saints, falcons, saints (3 losses would be 9-7 but we win the tie)
seahawks (5-5-0) - chiefs, vikings, panthers (3 losses would be 8-8)

 

Not only could we make the playoffs with just 9 wins, but it's possible to get the 5th seed.
 

[JSSkinz]

 

30 minutes ago, BleedBNG said:

 

Not only could we make the playoffs with just 9 wins, but it's possible to get the 5th seed.
 

Yep, regardless if Dallas wins or loses this week if we win and the Panthers lose to Seattle we are the 6th seed, we have that tiebreaker on them and a solid 6-3 conference record.

 

We actually have some tiebreakers in our favor, for now.

[JSSkinz]

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

Indy can beat them, and that's likely their toughest game left. But Indy is .500 and while I think they are better than that, it's a winable game for Dallas. One thing Luck does, is give the ball away, sometimes in bunches.

I can see Dallas taking the division but they're not what we saw on Thursday, that was a fricken joke.  Cooper was averaging 56 yards a game since he came to Dallas, he's more of a possession receiver and they werent even trying to get him deep in their previous 3 games, his sweet spot seems to be the mid-range route.

 

That's what made it so frustrating, they're running plays that even if successful only get you about 8-15 yards and he turned 2 of them into 130 yards of offense and 2 TD's, he won't come close to that the rest of the year.

 

Concerning Luck I thinks he more conservative this year even though he has 29 Td's, I've had him and TY in one of my money leagues and while the TD's are there he's only averaging 276 yards passing a game so he doesn't have those gaudy passing numbers that usually come with a bunch of picks.

 

They're a different team now, they play old school NFC East type football mixed with a dynamic passing game.  Their 4 game winning streak has a lot to do with the running game.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Solid post that will probably fall on some deaf ears.  Many of us loudly wondered when the running game would disappear due to defenses loading up to stop it and/or Oline injuries or AP falling off a cliff physically, the impact that would have on our offense.  Add to that not being entirely sold on our defense and their ability to keep getting turnovers at a high clip. 

 

When one formula starts to fail, another has to at least be considered and attempted, right?

[BleedBNG]

28 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

 

Yep, regardless if Dallas wins or loses this week if we win and the Panthers lose to Seattle we are the 6th seed, we have that tiebreaker on them and a solid 6-3 conference record.

 

We actually have some tiebreakers in our favor, for now.

 

If we end up the 5th seed in the playoffs, we might get another shot at Dallas.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

When one formula starts to fail, another has to at least be considered and attempted, right?

Offensively, I think they’ve done that to an extent, but they are constantly moving parts around and have lackluster QB play to boot.  It’s kind of amazing this team somehow was at one point 6-3.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

20 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

Their 4 game winning streak has a lot to do with the running game.

Crazy how that works.  Very rarely do any QBs in this league ever win games solely on their arm.  Certainly not against good to great teams/defenses.  What I think makes Alex so lackluster is that he’s historically been paired with solid to great running games and still can’t fill up the stat sheet.  If somehow some way we can figure out how to get the running game going again, I expect Colt’s numbers will be damn good with less turnovers.  I just can’t figure out how on earth we get the running game going again.  

[skins island connection]

 

 Even if Colt does cut down on his mistakes, its not likely he will be putting up 30+ points/game any time soon.

 This team just does not have anyone who scares defenses. Of the WRs, Doctson isn't aggressive enough and still has issues running routes. Harris doesn't concern anyone, and he isn't fast or shifty enough to juke a defender. There's not much out there regarding the new WR, I can't even think of his name, but he wasn't exactly burning DBs. 

The TEs are the only hope right now; if Colt can hit them often, maybe it pulls the safeties up to help defend them and maybe that leaves a WR to get open deep, but that's a big maybe.

 

The only thing that will help this team is Gruden's play calling; he cannot keep calling the same plays and formations; they're just too predictable. He has to get them practicing formations they don't run. If the WRs were dominant that's one thing, but they're not, so he has to mix things up by calling plays defenses haven't seen yet on film. But this is one of his hang-ups; he refuses to alter things with different players, its the same plays over and over; there were opponents saying in past games they knew exactly what was coming by their formations.  This is supposed to be a quality in a good HC, but we don't have that.

[Voice_of_Reason]

31 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Offensively, I think they’ve done that to an extent, but they are constantly moving parts around and have lackluster QB play to boot.  It’s kind of amazing this team somehow was at one point 6-3.  

Eh, I disagree, but that’s not a hill I want to die on.  I think Jays pretty much stuck to the “run up the middle on first to get to second and 7 and pray” philosophy for the last 4.75 years, and really hasn’t deviated from it ... ever.  

 

I haven’t see any real attempt to change up he play calling, do creative things in the run game, or even simple things like go up-tempo.

 

Its all he same plodding conservative stuff we have seen since Jay got here.  

 

Any change, or break from tendency (without being forced into it) would be a welcome sight.  I don’t count going no huddle when you’re down 3 scores, for example.

 

An instance where Jay could have been somewhat unpredictable would have been going for the onside kick one possession earlier.  When it wasn’t completely expected.  Small things like that add up over time and help the team win.  

 

And as as far as I can see, he does very little that is unpredictable.  Which means the other team is ready for it.

 

Snd if you have guys playing who are not regular starters, being predictable is about the worst thing you can be because you’re putting guys in a bad spot.