A New Beginning - Embrace The Noodle

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Good thing because you dont win with a QB who likes to routinely pass it to the other team. I swear some of yous would rather see a 40 yard int instead of a 5 yard check down, even if we lose because of it.

You say that like there is no middle ground between a 40 yard pick and a checkdown.  I just find it odd after all these years of watching football, you guys really think that the way Smith played QB was a sustainable winning formula for this team.  You saw towards the end there what he was without a running game, 2 picks and the awful sack that may have ended his career.

[LMFAO Alex Smith]

2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

You say that like there is no middle ground between a 40 yard pick and a checkdown.  I just find it odd after all these years of watching football, you guys really think that the way Smith played QB was a sustainable winning formula for this team.  You saw towards the end there what he was without a running game, 2 picks and the awful sack that may have ended his career.

 

Well said.

 

He has proven across his career, that he is only a stop gap for a true franchise QB. It blew my mind that people actually thought he would take us to he playoffs when the skins signed him to a stupid deal. Smith is not a QB you can or should even think about building around. 

[Skinsinparadise]

31st in yards per attempt, 25th in QBR.

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1691533-which-metric-matters-most-when-evaluating-nfl-quarterbacks

Yards per attempt

Pros

This has been my go-to stat for years. It's not perfect, but it reveals, on average, how many yards a quarterback has produced per throw. So while yards and yards per game are useless, this essentially takes completion percentage and downfield passing ability into account. 

"It's not pretty and it neglects sacks, but if you were to stack quarterbacks up by yards per attempt, you'd be closer to their real value than you'd find in stats like win-loss record, yardage, passer rating and completion percentage," said Football Outsiders assistant editor Rivers McCown. "All of those stats have a degree of context where scheme and teammates matter, but yards per attempt less so than others."

 

QBR

Pros 

This is ESPN's attempt to put a contemporary spin on the passer rating. It launched the "Total Quarterback Rating" in 2011, but the metric has been slow to catch on in mainstream media analysis of quarterback play. 

The formula definitely takes more into account than what we were used to with passer rating. It considers the outcome of each play in comparison to the expected outcome based on probabilities, and a quarterback's contributions as a runner are also factored in.  

"QBR doesn't adjust for defenses, but it does have a lot of use as far as looking backwards at who played the best," said McCown. "I think of it as a similar stat to what WPA does in baseball: it's not an instructive stat that is meant to predict the future, but it does a good job of measuring the past."

 

Winning percentage

Pros 

The better a quarterback plays, the higher his chances are of winning games. That applies to every player at every position, but quarterbacks undoubtedly control the outcome more than anyone else on the field. 

Cons

"Win-loss record is at the bottom of the hierarchy," said Schottey. "Unless you can make a pretty compelling case that the quarterback 'put the team on his back' and 'willed them to victory' those end up just being platitudes that Skip Bayless can't get enough of."

The quarterback is one of 53 on an active roster and one of 11 on the field at any given time. He only plays half of the game, and when he is in the game, he hands the ball off more than 40 percent of the time. That means he's only a factor about 30 percent of the time. And while that number is higher than anyone else on his team, it doesn't mean he should be credited with the wins and lassoed with the losses.

 

 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

15 minutes ago, LMFAO Alex Smith said:

 

Well said.

 

He has proven across his career, that he is only a stop gap for a true franchise QB. It blew my mind that people actually thought he would take us to he playoffs when the skins signed him to a stupid deal. Smith is not a QB you can or should even think about building around. 

 

Well....

 

If we are going on track record, he's also proven that he can take a team built like ours and get to the playoffs. So, it's fine to recognize that he has limitations and isn't going to be explosive. But it's only fair to also recognize that his formula has generally been good enough to take a team with a pretty good defense to the post-season (where he generally loses in round 1). 

 

 

[LMFAO Alex Smith]

Just now, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Well....

 

If we are going on track record, he's also proven that he can take a team built like ours and get to the playoffs. So, it's fine to recognize that he has limitations and isn't going to be explosive. But it's only fair to also recognize that his formula has generally been good enough to take a team with a pretty good defense to the post-season (where he generally loses in round 1). 

 

 

 

True, but this team is not a playoff team. Our first 8 games made it clear of that. We are just a mirage of what we could be under a legit coach. Smith was not going to take us to the playoffs. We are not making the playoffs. We should be playing for draft picks at this point.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Just now, LMFAO Alex Smith said:

 

True, but this team is not a playoff team. Our first 8 games made it clear of that. We are just a mirage of what we could be under a legit coach. Smith was not going to take us to the playoffs. We are not making the playoffs. We should be playing for draft picks at this point.

 

Again, we won't ever know. We won 5 of our first 7 games with some very similar limitations. I don't see why it's ridiculous to think that he could have won 3 of his last 6 games. But again, I'll concede the point because it would be speculative. What we do know is that he was going to be 6-4 through 10 games (I'm admitting he wouldn't have brought us back vs. Houston). So, again, if that trend continues he gets to 9 or 10 wins with ball control, field position, etc. 

 

As for playing for picks, that ship sailed when we started 5-2. If you are contending that we should have come into the season playing McCoy, maybe trading a couple older guys for value, etc. then I don't actually disagree. But once we traded for Smith, signed Richardson, etc., and then won some games early on, it's ridiculous to think that this team would tank. 

[LMFAO Alex Smith]

1 minute ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Again, we won't ever know. We won 5 of our first 7 games with some very similar limitations. I don't see why it's ridiculous to think that he could have won 3 of his last 6 games. But again, I'll concede the point because it would be speculative. What we do know is that he was going to be 6-4 through 10 games (I'm admitting he wouldn't have brought us back vs. Houston). So, again, if that trend continues he gets to 9 or 10 wins with ball control, field position, etc. 

 

As for playing for picks, that ship sailed when we started 5-2. If you are contending that we should have come into the season playing McCoy, maybe trading a couple older guys for value, etc. then I don't actually disagree. But once we traded for Smith, signed Richardson, etc., and then won some games early on, it's ridiculous to think that this team would tank. 

 

Yes, but one can hope. The only thing I have left on my wish list since the Alex Smith signing is the firing of Jay Gruden and Christmas might just come early when the iggles blow us out Monday night!

[TD_washingtonredskins]

1 minute ago, LMFAO Alex Smith said:

 

Yes, but one can hope. The only thing I have left on my wish list since the Alex Smith signing is the firing of Jay Gruden and Christmas might just come early when the iggles blow us out Monday night!

 

I hope we just let the season play out. What does it do to fire Gruden with 3-4 games left? It also doesn't do any good to fire him when some of the levels above head coach are even bigger problems. 

 

I'd love to either win out (or close to it) to make the playoffs or finally tear this down and build it back up the right way...

 

Not giving full control to Marty

Not giving up too quickly on Marty to bring in Spurrier 

Not hiring Gibbs for nostalgia and letting Vinny pick the players

Not hiring an OC before a coach and then promoting that OC to head coach

Not getting a GM approved by a coach you haven't hired yet and then hiring the GM and ultimately the coach

 

At least when they hired Gruden, they let Allen decide who he wanted. That may have been the least dysfunctional coaching hire since Snyder has arrived. So, to keep building on that trend...if they are moving on, I'd like them to hire the new GM first, let him evaluate what he has, and then let him fire the coach and replace him if that's what he wants to do. 

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Good thing because you dont win with a QB who likes to routinely pass it to the other team. I swear some of yous would rather see a 40 yard int instead of a 5 yard check down, even if we lose because of it.

 

Which is how "he only had 4 days to practice", becomes a legitimate defense of a guy who spent 4 years on a team as the primary back up. 

 

Its absurd. 

 

What's absurd is that you seem to think that you can't push the field without throwing INTs. It's called "being a good QB".

 

And let me ask you a question. If you lose because you never push the field and can't move the ball, and never threaten the opposing team? Or you lose because you threw a pick on a drive at the end of the game that was for the lead? What's worse?

 

In the latter, at least you had a chance. In the former, the game was over in the first quarter.

 

You seem to be really angry recently. What's up?

[JSSkinz]

3 hours ago, LMFAO Alex Smith said:

 

True, but this team is not a playoff team. Our first 8 games made it clear of that. We are just a mirage of what we could be under a legit coach. Smith was not going to take us to the playoffs. We are not making the playoffs. We should be playing for draft picks at this point.

So are you one of the crazy KC trolls?  I noticed you just joined last week and your interests listed on your homepage are "Trashlex Smith is a joke of a QB1!"

 

 

[skins island connection]

Its very possible that Smith will never return to play football.

He didn't get a shin splint, he broke 2 bones in half !  In case someone didn't see the video of it [ I suggest you don't if you have a weak stomach ] his leg was wiggling around like a cooked noodle, and it was painful to watch it much less have to suffer directly from it.

 

But he's not 25, he's 35. By the time he has physically healed, he still has to mentally heal, and that's not easy. Many people who have broken a leg will tell you that they wince when the same scenario comes up again, like using a ladder; some swear never to use a ladder ever again.

If / when he comes back, every single time someone gets remotely close to his leg he will freak out, and this may only happen for a few weeks or it could be forever; every person is different in situations like this, and he will not know until he is back in that same situation.

 

But the talk of him retiring could end up being true. He has a lot of money, he doesn't NEED to play, and the circumstances may change within the team by the time he heals, so its anyone's guess what will happen, but if I were a betting man, he will not come back. I wouldn't.

[Morneblade]

2 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

Its very possible that Smith will never return to play football.

He didn't get a shin splint, he broke 2 bones in half !  In case someone didn't see the video of it [ I suggest you don't if you have a weak stomach ] his leg was wiggling around like a cooked noodle, and it was painful to watch it much less have to suffer directly from it.

 

But he's not 25, he's 35. By the time he has physically healed, he still has to mentally heal, and that's not easy. Many people who have broken a leg will tell you that they wince when the same scenario comes up again, like using a ladder; some swear never to use a ladder ever again.

If / when he comes back, every single time someone gets remotely close to his leg he will freak out, and this may only happen for a few weeks or it could be forever; every person is different in situations like this, and he will not know until he is back in that same situation.

 

But the talk of him retiring could end up being true. He has a lot of money, he doesn't NEED to play, and the circumstances may change within the team by the time he heals, so its anyone's guess what will happen, but if I were a betting man, he will not come back. I wouldn't.

 

It's very likely Smith will be back. Certainly enough to try to pass his physical. Now, I don't know if you're looking at this at the angle of "maybe we can get out of the contract". If you are, let me put it to you in no uncertain terms.

 

We're not getting out of the contract. He is going to get every penny. We are not going to luck out and have him decide to not take that money. Only a complete idiot would do that.

 

Now, if you are looking at his chances of actually starting for the Redskins, that is a different question. This is what I'm pretty sure of, he's going to do everything he can to try and do that. The only thing that will stop him from passing a physical, is his body, not his will. And, I think he will eventually pass it, and will do everything he can to be a starting QB again. Once again, his body might not allow it, but that will be the only thing that will stop him. It's possible (hopeful even) that we have a better option on the team, but he's going to compete.

 

He won't just walk away. That, I can pretty much guarantee.

[skins island connection]

3 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

It's very likely Smith will be back. Certainly enough to try to pass his physical. Now, I don't know if you're looking at this at the angle of "maybe we can get out of the contract". If you are, let me put it to you in no uncertain terms.

 

We're not getting out of the contract. He is going to get every penny. We are not going to luck out and have him decide to not take that money. Only a complete idiot would do that.

 

Now, if you are looking at his chances of actually starting for the Redskins, that is a different question. This is what I'm pretty sure of, he's going to do everything he can to try and do that. The only thing that will stop him from passing a physical, is his body, not his will. And, I think he will eventually pass it, and will do everything he can to be a starting QB again. Once again, his body might not allow it, but that will be the only thing that will stop him. It's possible (hopeful even) that we have a better option on the team, but he's going to compete.

 

He won't just walk away. That, I can pretty much guarantee.

 

 No, I wasn't even thinking about the contract; I think that's a non-issue.

I am saying though that there is that mental aspect of coming back. No one knows when he will be physically and football ready,

His 'will' and his more-than-likely concern about being hit in that region or rolled on will affect the way he practices and plays; its a natural reflex. now, how long that lasts I have no idea; he may get over it quickly, say a few weeks, or it could visually affect him for months. Like I said, no one will know but him and when that time comes.

 

But there is the very distinct possibility that he tries to come back and one or more of the above-mentioned things occur, and he decides enough is enough.

Remember, yes this team was 6-3 at one point, but the lackluster offense he was running wasn't blowing out opponents, and more than likely things will not change much for the better, so he will once again struggle in this offense, and that could have an effect on him as well and make his mind up to just walk away now, maybe get a gig on ESPN, NFL Network, Fox Sports or CBS just like the other former players do, and still be involved in the league to some degree.

 

I wouldn't blame him on whatever he wanted to do, but he's gonna be set for life money-wise, and I bet in the back of his mind he knows this team isn't going anywhere; he doesn't have the explosive offensive players he had in KC.

[Morneblade]

9 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

 

 No, I wasn't even thinking about the contract; I think that's a non-issue.

I am saying though that there is that mental aspect of coming back. No one knows when he will be physically and football ready,

His 'will' and his more-than-likely concern about being hit in that region or rolled on will affect the way he practices and plays; its a natural reflex. now, how long that lasts I have no idea; he may get over it quickly, say a few weeks, or it could visually affect him for months. Like I said, no one will know but him and when that time comes.

 

He was ansy in the pocket before the injury. So, I don't know if that will get much, if any worse.

 

9 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

But there is the very distinct possibility that he tries to come back and one or more of the above-mentioned things occur, and he decides enough is enough.

Remember, yes this team was 6-3 at one point, but the lackluster offense he was running wasn't blowing out opponents, and more than likely things will not change much for the better, so he will once again struggle in this offense, and that could have an effect on him as well and make his mind up to just walk away now, maybe get a gig on ESPN, NFL Network, Fox Sports or CBS just like the other former players do, and still be involved in the league to some degree.

 

As far as his performance goes, I've been as hard on him as anyone. So, I never expected him to play well here, and I would not expect him to play well coming back. But, I also don't think that is going to stop him from trying. I think the only thing that will stop him is failing his physical.

 

9 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

I wouldn't blame him on whatever he wanted to do, but he's gonna be set for life money-wise, and I bet in the back of his mind he knows this team isn't going anywhere; he doesn't have the explosive offensive players he had in KC.

 

Maybe. But we also never got to try out Guice, and see what that does. I really don't think he's going to just look at a challenging situation and say, "nah, I'm done, too much work." He's never done that, and I don't expect that to change.

 

Let's put it this way. He broke his shoulder once, and that is a lot more intricatal to playing QB than your lower leg. He came back from that. I expect a broken leg will not phase him.

[Sandy Monk]

8 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

you guys really think that the way Smith played QB was a sustainable winning formula for this team.

 

With the current injuries at the time and current sync of all O-players staying the same as the postseason arrives? No. It was not sustainable. 

 

It was, at that time, sustaining the season while players recovered and developed cohesion. (with good complementary defense, granted)

 

"The way Smith played" was likely to improve over time and weapons healing.. but now, we'll likely never know. 

 

9 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

I expect a broken leg will not phase him.

 

Sadly, this is probably accurate. I'm glad he was paid very well for playing with that bunch, just a shame it counts against the Washington books like it does. I want my Guice-Skins looking sharp in 2019+. 

[CjSuAvE22]

AP is the reason we were 5-2 NOT Alex Smith let’s get that straight...without AP we would have maybe 2 wins

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

You say that like there is no middle ground between a 40 yard pick and a checkdown.  I just find it odd after all these years of watching football, you guys really think that the way Smith played QB was a sustainable winning formula for this team.  You saw towards the end there what he was without a running game, 2 picks and the awful sack that may have ended his career.

I dont want to get drug into this. I'm not defending Smith. Hes better than McCoy though, even if he wasn't playing well. My only point was if you're using the "only 4 days to practice " excuse, you're trying to hard. That's all.

[RedskinsLegacy]

5 hours ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

AP is the reason we were 5-2 NOT Alex Smith let’s get that straight...without AP we would have maybe 2 wins

Exactly! Defenses then keyed on AP because he was our only threat and there were no consequences to suffer. They knew Smith wasn't going to and couldn't light them up.  

[Koolblue13]

Just now, RedskinsLegacy said:

Exactly! Defenses then keyed on AP because he was our only threat and there were no consequences to suffer. They knew Smith wasn't going to and couldn't light them up.  

What was our run game ranked until 2 weeks ago?

[RedskinsLegacy]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

What was our run game ranked until 2 weeks ago?

Not sure, but I know AP was in the top 10 up until a few weeks ago, and most likely to bust over 100 Monday night. I think whats going to help him and our offense more is the return of Chris Thompson. I want to finally see this starting offense on the field behind Colt, with Crowder. That way there are no excuses for anyone. especially Gruden.

[JSSkinz]

46 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

What was our run game ranked until 2 weeks ago?

AP is averaging 42 yards per game over the last 4 games, this issue didn't just start this week and if Alex doesn't throw that pick 6 against the Texans we probably win that game.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, JSSkinz said:

AP is averaging 42 yards per game over the last 4 games, this issue didn't just start this week and if Alex doesn't throw that pick 6 against the Texans we probably win that game.

A QB throwing interceptions is bad. I agree. Alex doesn't usually throw them, which is a good thing.

 

Our run game outside of a few games has been mediocre, but somehow it was the reason we won games and had nothing to do with Alex being a game manager.

 

Also everyone else gets to use the excuse of us having no skill potion players on O, moving centers, line injuries, constantly hurt players. Etc. 

 

People are doing mental gymnastics to make excuses for all these other players, except Alex.

 

Half a season with an offense, with over rated revolving players after coming from a loaded team with a QB guru coach and suddenly his career is garbage, despite a winning record here. McCoy has 4 years in this exact offense, with the same bum talent and people are so happy hes throwing ints down field, that they're using the 4 days of practice excuse. Its ****ing ridiculous. 

 

Smith- uninspired safe football. 

McCoy- inspired turn overs.

 

Both suck. Game manager who doesn't lose the game is always better than the inspired turn over machine. Always.

 

They're both ****, but ones explosive. 

[Sandy Monk]

6 hours ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

AP is the reason we were 5-2 NOT Alex Smith let’s get that straight...without AP we would have maybe 2 wins

 

Calling it "the reason", as if football was not a team game, is what is not straight. 

 

Alex wasn't doing anything out there that most would call special. He was generally protecting the ball and finding a drive or three that did indeed contribute to a needed score or field position. AP was a notable part of this, as was getting players aligned and deciding on going with the play as is. 

 

Team game. Every aspect has a role to play and a burden to carry. If the passing game (and intangibles of run game) are carrying even 30% while the D and STs carry the rest to victory? That 30% was probably still needed as the contribution for wins.

 

The only useful argument is, can you pay some other QB significantly less to carry that 30%. At its current state of things, it's worth thinking about, and debatable. Current state doesn't mean it will be the state of things later down the line, when folks are healthy and in sync. Any cheaper QB doesn't mean he will have the restraint and ability to get even that 30%, but maybe. 

 

Not sure it makes much difference now. The injury. The contract. Predicting whether he even comes back to try again. Sometimes, it's nice to just sit back and see what happens. 

 

 

[JSSkinz]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

A QB throwing interceptions is bad. I agree. Alex doesn't usually throw them, which is a good thing.

 

Our run game outside of a few games has been mediocre, but somehow it was the reason we won games and had nothing to do with Alex being a game manager.

 

Also everyone else gets to use the excuse of us having no skill potion players on O, moving centers, line injuries, constantly hurt players. Etc. 

 

People are doing mental gymnastics to make excuses for all these other players, except Alex.

 

Half a season with an offense, with over rated revolving players after coming from a loaded team with a QB guru coach and suddenly his career is garbage, despite a winning record here. McCoy has 4 years in this exact offense, with the same bum talent and people are so happy hes throwing ints down field, that they're using the 4 days of practice excuse. Its ****ing ridiculous. 

 

Smith- uninspired safe football. 

McCoy- inspired turn overs.

 

Both suck. Game manager who doesn't lose the game is always better than the inspired turn over machine. Always.

 

They're both ****, but ones explosive. 

You asked what the run game was ranked 2 weeks ago and I gave you the real numbers, not the ranking because it's not relative to the way the team has played since our O line has become injured.

 

The team has lost 3 of its last 4 and in the 1 win we scored 16 points, Colt has been the starter for 1 week and when he came in against the Texans he brought us back from 2 possessions down to take the lead and had no turnovers.

 

If he can somehow manage to have a 2-1 Td to Int ratio he will be an upgrade over Alex, its a big if but we'll see.

 

I know you said you didn't watch the Texans game so its important you know that Alex's pick 6 killed us, we won the turnover battle (3 turnovers) but we couldn't convert the first 2 turnovers to points when Alex was in game, the 3rd turnover was the first time Colt came in and he scored immediately.

 

I hope he carves up Philly, just to piss everyone off.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Well....

 

If we are going on track record, he's also proven that he can take a team built like ours and get to the playoffs. So, it's fine to recognize that he has limitations and isn't going to be explosive. But it's only fair to also recognize that his formula has generally been good enough to take a team with a pretty good defense to the post-season (where he generally loses in round 1). 

 

 

 

I'd agree if the defense wasn't sliding. The defense needs to wake up.  I don't think this team can win with either QB if the defense is a sieve and they can't run the ball.    I was at the Tampa game, the offense looked pathetic for most of the game against arguably the worst defense in the NFL.  The Giants following week lit Tampa up just like about every other team has.  But when your defense causes 4 turnovers, you are going to win 9 times out of 10, regardless of the offense.  I don't think Alex necessarily needed a big running game but if you go game by game he needed either a big game by the defense or the running game.  Aside from the first half of the GB game, he wasn't leading the calvary on any win. 

 

His play to me was mostly meh and uninspired to watch.  No one can sell me that he was playing winning football this year.  But I get the argument that he's not going to spoil it for other units taking the lead.   And people can sell me if you are going to have a bad QB, Alex's version of bad is better than Colt's (Rex's) typical version of bad.  If you can't move the ball at least don't turn the ball over.  I'll give Colt a break though, I don't care how long you've sat on the bench with the same squad, if you take no practice reps for a game, that's tough.  Forget him knowing the system, there is a reason why you practice during the week the game plan for a given opponent -- its not a one size fits all approach every week against everyone.  Colt didn't have that.  Do I have much faith in the dude?  Not really.    I always saw him as a decent backup QB but not starter material.  But my mind is open some at least since the coaches behind the scenes seem higher on him than I am.  And they'd obviously know better.

 

I do agree though that Alex could improve and likely would have.  I've said many times for a check down QB -- can you think of worst check down weapons than we got?  The ultimate check down weapon we had is Chris Thompson.  I don't think it was a coincidence that while if I recall Alex didn't complete a ball beyond 12 yards in that game versus Arizona, they dominated that first half anyway via Thompson and Peterson.

 

Not to make Thompson the be all and end all but I said on the Alex thread I think he alone would help Alex improve because he can take these check downs and produce YAC.  For Alex if you don't have guys that can do YACs or lets say when he runs sweeps actually have a player who can run who can make something out of it -- he's not going to look that hot.   I like Richardson but to me he wasn't enough to give Alex or for that matter now Colt the weapons they need to look good.  I think both guys are limited but this FO is making both look even more limited than they actually are.

 

I do think Colt can move the ball better than Alex. Seems like his teammates hint at the same.  More decisive, gets the ball out quicker, throws with more anticipation, throws more balls that give them chances, etc.  Question is can he bury his Rex like tendencies?