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Redskins vs Texans Prediction Thread: Pessimistically Optimistic?

skins island connection

By skins island connection
in The Stadium

Who wins ?  

102 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins this defensive showdown ?


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TheShredder

TheShredder

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Spearfeather said:

 

Yeah, I'm having hard time understanding how a team that gave up 

 

68

98

81

73 

37

 

and only gave up more than 105 yards rushing once, could possibly be ranked 28th in rushing defense, by any measure.

I'm trying not to get too wrapped up with rankings because it's only halfway through the season.  My interpretation would be that they solved the run defense issue and haven't yet solved the 3rd down issue.  Defense has to get off the field on 3rd down more often then not. 

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goskins10

goskins10

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Spearfeather said:

 

Yeah, I'm having hard time understanding how a team that gave up 

 

68

98

81

73 

37

 

and only gave up more than 105 yards rushing once, could possibly be ranked 28th in rushing defense, by any measure.

 

Not saying I agree with them but it is in Football Outsiders - they use DVOA - Here is the definition if you are interested. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

 

The assign point values based on situation - For example: A 10 yd run for a 1st in the 1st Q or up 14 is less valuable than a 10 yd run for 1st in the 4Q down 7 pts. It's more complicated than that but that is general idea.

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Spearfeather

Spearfeather

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Posted
7 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

I'm trying not to get too wrapped up with rankings because it's only halfway through the season.  My interpretation would be that they solved the run defense issue and haven't yet solved the 3rd down issue.  Defense has to get off the field on 3rd down more often then not. 

 

I'm not sure what you're saying here but either way, I don't see how anyone that has watched our run defense this year would come away saying "Yeah, looks like the fifth worst, to me. ".

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TheShredder

TheShredder

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Spearfeather said:
14 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

I'm trying not to get too wrapped up with rankings because it's only halfway through the season.  My interpretation would be that they solved the run defense issue and haven't yet solved the 3rd down issue.  Defense has to get off the field on 3rd down more often then not. 

 

I'm not sure what you're saying here but either way, I don't see how anyone that has watched our run defense this year would come away saying "Yeah, looks like the fifth worst, to me. ".

Basically agreeing that the rankings don't matter.  Definitely are capable of stopping the run against anyone when that's in the game plan.  They've stopped all the top RB's they've played against when that was the plan.  When you've watched every game then you know more than some BS analyst who points out a statistical ranking that doesn't hold any water. 

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goskins10

goskins10

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2 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

Basically agreeing that the rankings don't matter.  Definitely are capable of stopping the run against anyone when that's in the game plan.  They've stopped all the top RB's they've played against when that was the plan.  When you've watched every game then you know more than some BS analyst who points out a statistical ranking that doesn't hold any water. 

 

It certainly points out the flaws in Football Oiutsiders - but also the flaw in citing one stat. I wonder how many of these talking heads take a look at a ranking like that, never watch any game film on the team and just assume the run D is bad. I agree with @Spearfeather it's pretty hard to look at how they have played the run and call them the 5th worst run defense in the league, no matter how you cut it.

 

But I also agree with you - it really doesn't matter what the rankings are. They have to play the game.

 

This is another opportunity for Jay and the team to prove they are legit. Houston may not be world beaters, but they are a solid football team with legitimate stars, especially on D. While it's not at all  do or die, it could be a real statement game. Win and it starts to shut some people up. Lose - especially if they lose bad - and it's See I told you they were fools gold.

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TheShredder

TheShredder

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Posted

As Skins fans are concerned and likely how the coaches look at what they believe they do well, the run defense isn't your weakness but a strength.  I heard Gruden say that he lets the coaches come up with the game plan to be presented in the meeting and then they tweak it.  It appears to be a good formula.  Coaches know what's up on any given week and what they've got at their disposal that week vs what the opposing team doesn't do well.  For that matter, we can look at the Wins and Losses and begin to see where teams will target the Skins.  When that formula to beat the Skins calls for beating them over the top, then is countered by a game plan to defend that and hold them to FG's vs TD's then it's working well.  At least 65% of the time. That's winning football.  When the Skins finally hit some WR's with consistency then you're talking about a team that could do some damage.  Right now I think there strategy is valid with upside. 

 

Huge test this weekend as you're facing a team that's got a similar strategy and well rested with less injuries.  Probably comes down to turnovers and it's a Pick'em game.

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skins island connection

skins island connection

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Posted

 

  The Texans don't have anyone at RB who is a concern, but ignoring the run will cost them dearly.

 We know Watson will take off running if he sees an opportunity, especially if the running game isn't working. Manusky should have someone in there spying on Watson, mirroring his every move; and not a lumbering LBer. 

 

 If they keep Watson in check, they have a good chance of winning the game, unless the offense coughs up the ball a lot. They have Demarius Thomas now, so they have another weapon, sort of, at WR, but no one knows how effective he will be.

 

Honestly, for the first time since week 1, I am actually jittery about a game. I can't wait to see it, and I hope for god's sake it isn't an ugly game, and I want to see Alex hit a few deep balls.  ****, this is important, I'm tired of hearing about a hollow, unworthy, blah Redskins team; I wanna hear about someone else besides the Saints Rams or Vikings, and to think the Vikes aren't even doing good but that smoke is still being blown.

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NoCalMike

NoCalMike

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Posted

Houston has a good defense but it is mostly on the front end.  Draw up some plays that takes advantage of an aggressive pass rush.  Marshall is back this week.  Get Bibbs, Marshall and Quinn (assuming Crowder and CT still out?) involved early.  Let those blitzers over commit and then hit those short slant routes or in the flat and let the speedy little guys work in space.

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desertbeagle85

desertbeagle85

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16 minutes ago, Birdlives said:

31-7 Houston. Blown out again. This may very well be Jays “Zorn” season. Hip hip hooray! Start strong, finish ugly. 

 

I agree with this. 

 

Offense is horrible when healthy and that they are not. Defense has proved it can't stop a good offense and Houston has that. Not to mention the Texans are coming off a bye week. I expect Smith to get sacked 5 times and maybe one lucky TD. 

 

Can't wait to hear what Norman has to say after this week. 

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RedskinsFanInSanAntonio

RedskinsFanInSanAntonio

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Seeing the Texans play down there I think they are decent. Defense is good. Offense is nothing special outside of Hopkins. Watson is good. Skins seem to do well against mobile quarterbacks this season. I see a low scoring game. Skins win. 

 

17-10. Skins. Redkins make a big first down on the final drive to burn out the clock to win.

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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I think this is a turning point game potentially, win this game and its almost impossible to lose the division aside from a Philly run where they sweep us.  Lose this game and lets say Dallas wins -- I got a bad feeling in that context Dallas smokes them on Thanksgiving and ultimately takes the division.   If Dallas wins the next 2, their schedule looks relatively easy.  Almost as important that Dallas loses to Atlanta as it is that we win today IMO. 

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bakedtater1

bakedtater1

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8 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

True. Ok let me re-phrase that. When was the last two-game stretch that we had that was so important in terms of making or breaking our season? I wanna say 2012? 

Every season..k I'll stop sorry I get ya..ya I wanna say 2012 also..maybe 2015 and any season we've made the playoffs scince at least 2004

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