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Predict The Skins W/L

Veryoldschool

By Veryoldschool
in The Stadium

2018 W/L Prediction  

138 members have voted

  1. 1. How Many 2018 Regular Season Wins?

    • 16-0
      1
    • 15-1
      1
    • 14-2
      1
    • 13-3
      0
    • 12-4
      3
    • 11-5
      12
    • 10-6
      43
    • 9-7
      25
    • 8-8
      15
    • 7-9
      14
    • 6-10
      15
    • Dark pit of despair
      7

This poll is closed to new votes

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  • Poll closed on 09/09/2018 at 03:59 AM

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

IThis might be unpolular with you and a few others, but I don't actually care about the schedule and injuries anymore.  If you're in year 5, you play the teams in front of you, and if you're a good team, you win.  If you're not, you lose. 

 

 

I actually agree with this.  I also agree that it doesn't take eons to build a winning roster where it must be some gradual slow burn.  Having said that, I don't think Jay was given a loaded roster to become one of the better teams in the league. 

 

I think mustering a 9-7 record with this roster and factoring context I think is good.  So my issue with your take isn't your theory about winning and expectations.  But to me if they miss the mark its much more likely on the guys who constructed the roster as opposed to being on Jay.  To me I think its a big deal (if Chris Russell is right) that Jay was very frustrated by the FO's approach to FA.  

 

To me the guys running pro personnel/FA don't approach these off seasons with a go for the kill/sense of urgency.  And that is the prime factor for them falling short to the teams that do.  I am just in general more of a FO guy (as for impact on success) than HC guy.  I think the FO has more impact.  

 

 

 

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I actually agree with this.  I also agree that it doesn't take eons to build a winning roster where it must be some gradual slow burn.  Having said that, I don't think Jay was given a loaded roster to become one of the better teams in the league. 

 

I think mustering a 9-7 record with this roster and factoring context I think is good.  So my issue with your take isn't your theory about winning and expectations.  But to me if they miss the mark its much more likely on the guys who constructed the roster as opposed to being on Jay.  To me I think its a big deal (if Chris Russell is right) that Jay was very frustrated by the FO's approach to FA.  

 

To me the guys running pro personnel/FA don't approach these off seasons with a go for the kill/sense of urgency.  And that is the prime factor for them falling short to the teams that do.  I am just in general more of a FO guy (as for impact on success) than HC guy.  I think the FO has more impact. 

At this point, I guess I care less about context than I have in the past. I am willing to give guys a chance, and keep giving them chances, but my personal patience gets worn out when I see the same type of mistakes over and over. 

 

1. Everything to do with the running game.  From the way the scheme is constructed, to the players he chooses to play, to the fact we only run on first down, and we run on first down a lot, and it's predictable and produces poor results.  This is a 4 year trend, and while I can forgive a bit for lack of talent, and I can forgive a little bit for injuries on the OL last year, there's more than enough "trend" here to say that Jay shoulders a lot of the responsibility.

 

2. Cooley did the math on this, but over the last 2 years, of the 10 point + leads we've had, we've blown all but 2 of them, I believe.  And it's more leads than you might think. Credit where credit is due, I think Jay schemes up the first 15-20 plays on offense as well as anybody.  They have had early leads, but haven't learned how to hold them.  A lot of that is on coaching.  Either not being able to adjust, or getting too conservative.  And this is year over year

 

3. Allowing teams to come back and tie/win games late.  Think 2016 Detroit and Bengals (twice).  2017 Saints.  There are others.  Trend.

 

4. Lack of ability to win the games when it matters most.  They had 3 shots to win 1 game in 2016 to get into the playoffs, and lost all 3.  They had a chance, with the lead, to keep the 2017 season alive, and blew it at the Saints.  Even in 2015 the year they had the best record, they completely blew it on MNF to the Cowboys.

 

5. Miserable division record.  Division games are not just about talent, they really come down to coaching as much as anything, because you get to

know the teams so well, coaches can really impact the game.
 

There is enough blame to go around.  I choose not to heap ALL of it on Bruce.  He gets the majority of the blame.  However, Jay isn't able to maximize the talent that he's given and win games he should win.  And that's on him.  At least in my opinion. 

 

Said another way, if they don't blow the Detroit and Bengals games, both of which they had won, they finish with at least 10 wins.  In 2017, they had the Chief's game won, except they gagged it away.  They also had the Saints game won, choked that one away also.  If they just win those 2 games, which they could have, they have at least 9 wins. Then things look a lot rosier. 

 

Gruden has not shown the ability to win the games that are there to win, losing two or three every year.  Good coaches might have that happen to them once, but not over and over. 

 

PS on the Bengals game,  I'm not referring to the FG to win in OT.  They had the Bengals game won in regulation, up by 4 with 4 minutes left before they allowed the Bengals to come down and score a TD on them in a really quick 2 minute drive. Then they got to the Bengals 22 with 1:15 left, and gained zero yards before kicking a tying FG.  I'm not going to blame Gruden for the missed FG in OT.  But they had chances to win that game in regulation, and they blew it, twice.  

 

Again, we'll see.  Maybe they turn it around this year and get to 9-7 or 10-6.  I think they have a 10-6 roster with folks healthy.  If coached well.

 

I hope he gets it.  Hasn't shown anything in preseason to show that anything has changed though, so we'll just have to wait for Sunday to see if they can take the first step. 

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Chachie

Chachie

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

4. Lack of ability to win the games when it matters most.  They had 3 shots to win 1 game in 2016 to get into the playoffs, and lost all 3.  They had a chance, with the lead, to keep the 2017 season alive, and blew it at the Saints.  Even in 2015 the year they had the best record, they completely blew it on MNF to the Cowboys.

 

5. Miserable division record.  Division games are not just about talent, they really come down to coaching as much as anything, because you get to

know the teams so well, coaches can really impact the game.
 

 

 

 

Although Gruden has continued to suffer from these woes, they are a tradition under Daniel Snyder. Only Gibbs2 and Shanny have overcome those dreadful flaws in my recollection under this ownership banner.

All great bullet points, VoR but these two really hit me in the chest. I'd like to add "beating teams we're supposed to beat." We can beat the league's best and lose the following week to the worst. Classic Snyder's Skins.

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

4. Lack of ability to win the games when it matters most.  They had 3 shots to win 1 game in 2016 to get into the playoffs, and lost all 3.  They had a chance, with the lead, to keep the 2017 season alive, and blew it at the Saints.  Even in 2015 the year they had the best record, they completely blew it on MNF to the Cowboys.

 

 

You have a lot stuff there and I don't want to turn this into a Jay thread.  So I'll focus on a couple of points.

 

A.  I was at the NO game, a Saints fan behind me was about to leave and I told them -- hey I'd hang in there because this defense isn't clutch and can't close games.  That's how I felt about the defense.  And as for the running game the 1 yard that Perine couldn't get with the game on the line -- I'd put money that Guice would get it and maybe Peterson. 

 

B.  While I myself is also frustrated by the number of runs on first down -- IMO that's not the #1 issue with the run game.  You mention Cooley and he got into it plenty in his film reviews -- he's kicked a number of reasons for the running game issues but his top one is having Jags at RB with little vision or burst.  Cooley about a week ago posted one on twitter of Kelley missing a major hole that he could have taken to the house if he saw it and instead just got one yard.

 

If you can't run the ball or stop the run it's not easy to close games.  Look at the time of possession for example in the infamous Giants game that finished the 2016 season -- Giants dominated the time of possession.   They couldn't get on the field to come back.  Giants just kept the ball. 

 

IMO Guice would have been a game changer.  Great vision, quick to the hole, quick feet, explosive, can get skinny in the hole to gain short yardage, he showed good hands in practice -- IMO the complete package -- total stud.   It was kind of interesting to hear Ben Standig say on the radio today he was much more optimistic about the team when Guice was healthy but his injury changed his outlook just about completely.  I got kicked around by some for basically saying the same thing a few weeks back where its how can one back/one player make that much of a difference?

 

To me having a bell cow RB would do more to change hanging on to leads than anything relating to how Jay evokes or doesn't evoke discipline from his players.   Ditto having the ability to stop opposing offenses on the ground.  Bringing this all home to the point of the thread, if somehow Peterson does have something left at RB and lets say Payne/Settle help shore up the run defense -- Jay's going to all of a sudden look to be a much smarter ? coach to some especially as to protecting leads.

 

Somehow I think changing their run game and run stopping ability from abysmal to good -- might have some impact on their ability to hold on to leads.   And while I get you place some of the blame on the running game on Jay.  For me I don't care if you run Robert Kelley on 2nd and 5 draw plays -- he's still a JAG IMO.

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TheShredder

TheShredder

Posted
Posted

I could see that if Gruden realizes that you can't change anything by doing the same crap, he'll change to a power running game.  If that's in fact what he's done, then we'll see it.  Basically can change from a run on 1st down to pass formations on 1st down.  Then you can actually disguise what you're doing on 1st down.  If he doesn't do this, he should be fired as he'll never change.  Having a bell cow and above avg OL is what the doctor ordered.  Dial up a nice mix of 50/50 1st down calls and roll out Smith with misdirection.  Screens...options....but he's gotta change his play calling to a mix that will confuse the opponent.  That hasn't been done in 4 damn years!!  If he comes out and runs on 1st down, I'm not going to stop ****ing until he's fired!  ?

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

You have a lot stuff there and I don't want to turn this into a Jay thread.  So I'll focus on a couple of points.

We'll never know.  But here's the thing: they'd been having trouble with short yardage all year. And if memory serves, several years. They hadn't tried either:

 

1. A QB sneak.

2. Spread them out and get some type of a run/pass option.  (I get it, CT was hurt by then, but Perine can catch a little bit, or he might be better suited to running with less bodies packed in) 

 

But Jay called essentially the same play that they'd run a bunch of times that hadn't worked. And it didn't work again. 

 

So, I put that on Jay and bad coaching.  A good coach knows what his teams strengths and weaknesses are, and would know that in that situation, the odds of Perine blasting through to pick up a first with an OL that's held together with duct tape and TE's who can't block a sled isn't the best option.

 

Would having a game-changing back help?  Sure. 

 

Would a better coach have figured out a better way to get the yard?  Yep. 

 

As a side note, Barry Sanders make Wayne Fontes look positively competent, when he really wasn't. Did you know he won coach of the year in 1991 (over 14-2 Joe Gibbs), even though his team was BLOWED OUT by Joe Gibb's Redskins in the NFC Championship game on the way to the SB?  Dude wasn't a good coach. Had a .500 record.  He had an all-time great player who lifted the team. Without Barry, he probably wins 2-3 games for his first 2 years and then gets fired.  Could Gruden win with Barry Sanders, AP (in his prime), etc?  Yeah, I think he could.  But so could anybody, really.   

36 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

I could see that if Gruden realizes that you can't change anything by doing the same crap, he'll change to a power running game.  If that's in fact what he's done, then we'll see it.  Basically can change from a run on 1st down to pass formations on 1st down.  Then you can actually disguise what you're doing on 1st down.  If he doesn't do this, he should be fired as he'll never change.  Having a bell cow and above avg OL is what the doctor ordered.  Dial up a nice mix of 50/50 1st down calls and roll out Smith with misdirection.  Screens...options....but he's gotta change his play calling to a mix that will confuse the opponent.  That hasn't been done in 4 damn years!!  If he comes out and runs on 1st down, I'm not going to stop ****ing until he's fired!  ?

It's amazing how much of the season might rest on Gruden getting this point. 

 

I really hope he's figured it out.  I really do.  I'm hoping for shock-and-awe style offense like what Shanahan rolled out with Griffin in the opener in New Orleans.  They hadn't shown any of that pistol stuff in pre-season, and then WHAMO! I want to see something like that from Gruden, not just a well designed plodding offense.  Something interesting and unique, because that's what's going to be needed to win games.

 

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TheShredder

TheShredder

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

I really hope he's figured it out.  I really do.  I'm hoping for shock-and-awe style offense like what Shanahan rolled out with Griffin in the opener in New Orleans.  They hadn't shown any of that pistol stuff in pre-season, and then WHAMO! I want to see something like that from Gruden, not just a well designed plodding offense.  Something interesting and unique, because that's what's going to be needed to win games.

 

That's what I'm saying... He's got nothing to lose now.... no excuses either.  He's out of time and his back is against the wall.  Time to do something completely different.  

giphy.gif

 

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SWFLSkins

SWFLSkins

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Morrison J said:

8-8 written all over us imo. Keep key players like Reed healthy any we might sneak into the playoffs.

 

Both lines were beat up last year and they managed 7-9, I see 9-7 or 10-6 with health. People forget, Alex Smith is a winner, not flashy, not excited, but He wins. Last three years....

 

 

 

 

2015 31 KAN QB 11 16 16 11-5-0 307 470 65.3 3486 20 4.3 7 1.5 80 7.4 7.6 11.4 217.9 95.4 58.4 45 235 6.31 6.48 8.7 1 1 16
2016* 32 KAN QB 11 15 15 11-4-0 328 489 67.1 3502 15 3.1 8 1.6 80 7.2 7.0 10.7 233.5 91.2 58.0 28 140 6.50 6.39 5.4 3 3 12
2017* 33 KAN QB 11 15 15 9-6-0 341 505 67.5 4042 26 5.1 5 1.0 79 8.0 8.6 11.9 269.5 104.7 67.0 35 207 7.10 7.65 6.5 1 3 17

 

That's 31 Wins, 15 Loses.

 

 

2015 27 WAS QB 8 16 16 9-7-0 379 543 69.8 4166 29 5.3 11 2.0 78 7.7 7.8 11.0 260.4 101.6 71.7 26 186 6.99 7.14 4.6 2 3 12
2016* 28 WAS QB 8 16 16 8-7-1 406 606 67.0 4917 25 4.1 12 2.0 80 8.1 8.0 12.1 307.3 97.2 66.1 23 190 7.52 7.45 3.7 4 4 15
2017 29 WAS QB 8 16 16 7-9-0 347 540 64.3 4093 27 5.0 13 2.4 74 7.6 7.5 11.8 255.8 93.9 54.2 41 342 6.46 6.38 7.1 1 4 12

 

24 Wins, 23 Loses and a tie. 

 

\That is with less yardage, lower QB rating...so was it him or the team? I think Alex is a better closer, and you know,,,,Kirk can't grill. 

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KillBill26

KillBill26

Posted
Posted
On 9/6/2018 at 3:34 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I actually agree with this.  I also agree that it doesn't take eons to build a winning roster where it must be some gradual slow burn.  Having said that, I don't think Jay was given a loaded roster to become one of the better teams in the league. 

 

I think mustering a 9-7 record with this roster and factoring context I think is good.  So my issue with your take isn't your theory about winning and expectations.  But to me if they miss the mark its much more likely on the guys who constructed the roster as opposed to being on Jay.  To me I think its a big deal (if Chris Russell is right) that Jay was very frustrated by the FO's approach to FA.  

 

To me the guys running pro personnel/FA don't approach these off seasons with a go for the kill/sense of urgency.  And that is the prime factor for them falling short to the teams that do.  I am just in general more of a FO guy (as for impact on success) than HC guy.  I think the FO has more impact.  

 

 

 

You are talking about putting it on the front office if they miss the mark, so that means if what we saw today was not a flash in the pan, then we should be giving the front office credit for that same approach.  A lot of people were screaming for more aggressiveness on the free-agent front and upgrading specific holes, such as left guard. But if that front office was able to see that the roster they had assembled was a playoff-caliber team, and resisted the urge of free-agent splashes, and continue to build methodically through the draft, I'd say this front office deserves a ton of credit for sticking to their guns and being confident in what they had in house.  And a lot of people have taken shots at Bruce Allen for roster decisions, would those same people be able to give him credit if the team does have success?  it seems a lot of Redskins fans will say Allen is responsible if we fail, but I have a feeling a lot of those people will not be able to say Allen is responsible if we succeed.  If November comes, and the Redskins are consistently putting up performances like we saw today, I think Bruce Allen & Company deserve a ton of credit for the job they have done.  And I am not a huge Bruce Allen fan by any means, but I feel if you are going to rip the man for what you perceived to be a flawed plan, but that plan actually was a successful one, then you can't change the level of responsibility you attributed to him, and you should be able to credit him for that. 

 

For the record, this is not directed at SIP directly or any one individual but towards a fairly large contingent that has criticized the front office for building a roster that we are now seeing the results of.  And I know it was only one game against a below-average football team, but that was pretty good football there today. 

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