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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


Going Commando

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45 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Some of the second tier names to consider: Warring, Fant, and Smith are all inriguing.  Fant is like a smaller, faster version of Hockenson, with less potential as a run blocker.  Very similar strengths and weaknesses otherwise, Hockenson is just bigger and better than him.  But the plus side to Fant is you can probably get him in the second round.

 

Irv Smith will probably be there for us in the second round too.  He's a Jordan Reed style TE--undersized receiving specialist who doesn't have a lot of potential as an in-line blocker but can be highly effective as more of a fullback-style lead blocker.  You give up some things with Smith compared to Hockenson, but him in the second is probably better value than Hockenson at 15.

 

Count me as someone down for Hockenson at 15. Problem is, he probably wont even be there. I keep seeing him going around 10-12. I just feel like the impact he can have on the offense is more than other guys at 15. I would rather get a WR with the second pick. I think the drop from a Hockenson to a second round TE is more than a 1st-2nd round WR...

 

...But, I would love Fant at our 2nd pick. But after the combine I doubt he makes it there. 

 

I will pass on Irv. One of the biggest issues we have had at TE is having guys that just aren't good blockers. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, dballer said:

I will pass on Irv. One of the biggest issues we have had at TE is having guys that just aren't good blockers.  

 

It depends on what you want from the blocker and the personnel you want to run.  Irv Smith could give you a lot of flexibility to move between 11 and 20/21 personnel and get your runs blocked because of how well suited he is naturally to the H-Back role.  That gives opponents a different look and you can exploit that lesser preparation in the run game.  He's a pretty fierce lead blocker with very high end potential in this role.  And he was actually a decent in line blocker this season.  He's limited by size, not desire or toughness.

 

We'd be lucky to have him in the second round, that would be high draft value, as I would probably rank him in the top 35-40 prospects in this class.  Don't undersell his value as a receiver.  He has the potential to be one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL given his play speed and route running talent.  He's a legit big play threat.

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4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It depends on what you want from the blocker and the personnel you want to run.  Irv Smith could give you a lot of flexibility to move between 11 and 20/21 personnel and get your runs blocked because of how well suited he is naturally to the H-Back role.  That gives opponents a different look and you can exploit that lesser preparation in the run game.  He's a pretty fierce lead blocker with very high end potential in this role.  And he was actually a decent in line blocker this season.  He's limited by size, not desire or toughness.

 

We'd be lucky to have him in the second round, that would be high draft value, as I would probably rank him in the top 35-40 prospects in this class.  Don't undersell his value as a receiver.  He has the potential to be one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL given his play speed and route running talent.  He's a legit big play threat.

 

Combine has him at 6-2, 242. That's pretty much Jordan Reed, he came in at 6'2", 236. Not a deal breaker. Doesn't feel like Reed's blocking woes are due to his size.  I just feel like Hockenson has so much more value. 

 

Do you like Smith over Fant? Fant has quite the upside...

 

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@stevemcqueen1 It’s interesting to me that outside runs were a problem for us under Barry as well - he started trying to have his ILBs cover the outside and I remember questioning it.  Easy to say Barry and Manusky just can’t coach, but this is pretty basic, right?  So I think it comes down to personnel.  Here’s hoping Collins helps (a lot).  Of course, he’s got to be used properly...

 

@AnselmheiferI’ve been calling for a speed rusher for quite a while now.  I thought bringing Galette back last season would have made sense as he filled that need (he was also cheap and if he performed, could maybe net a comp pick).  

However, when looking at edge rushers early in the draft, I was looking for more of a complete guy... in part because of the idea they need a guy that can make an early impact, and in part because I’m not sure Anderson is starting caliber (he may well be though).

So while I’ve pushed Winovich as I think he’s essentially a better version of Anderson - starting caliber and can play all downs - I hadn’t so much considered someone like Burns (who I think needs time to develop into a full time starter) to use as a situational rusher with Anderson starting.  

 

 

On a different note, I wonder which X receivers will be available to us in the 2nd.  Pretty safe to assume Metcalf and Butler are gone, but there’s still Harry, Arcega-Whiteside and Harmon, not to mention Antoine Wesley (be interesting to see if his ex-coach drafts him to Arizona), Fulgham, Preston Williams, Boykin and others that likely aren’t 2nd rounders.  

I’m not sure I’d rule out guys like AJ Brown, Sills and others (maybe better suited to flanker roles) as possibilities to play as split ends either.  

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We should totally see if we can trade back from #15 to even the end of the first round and pick up a high 3rd or a 2nd along the way. There is so much value in the late first / second round this year. I like Winovich, Lindstrom, Isabella, Polite, M. Brown and Fant, among others

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1 hour ago, dballer said:

 

Combine has him at 6-2, 242. That's pretty much Jordan Reed, he came in at 6'2", 236. Not a deal breaker. Doesn't feel like Reed's blocking woes are due to his size.  I just feel like Hockenson has so much more value.  

 

Do you like Smith over Fant? Fant has quite the upside... 

 

Yeah, I think I do like him over Fant.  I think he's a cleaner and tougher receiver and does a better job fighting for the ball in traffic.  I think he'll be more well-rounded as a slot receiver.  Smith is a real tough guy, and even though Fant is taller and a bit heavier, his waist is a little narrow and his legs are kind of skinny.  He's a lanky guy who is built more like a really big wide receiver, I don't think he's got a ton of potential as an in-line blocker either.

 

I would probably rank Smith as a late first to early second round caliber prospect, and Fant as more of a middle to late second rounder.

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41 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

On a different note, I wonder which X receivers will be available to us in the 2nd.  Pretty safe to assume Metcalf and Butler are gone, but there’s still Harry, Arcega-Whiteside and Harmon, not to mention Antoine Wesley (be interesting to see if his ex-coach drafts him to Arizona), Fulgham, Preston Williams, Boykin and others that likely aren’t 2nd rounders.  

I’m not sure I’d rule out guys like AJ Brown, Sills and others (maybe better suited to flanker roles) as possibilities to play as split ends either.  

 

Harmon will probably be what we wanted out of Doctson. A guy that wins the 50/50 ball. He's more physical than Doctson, though. I would be more than happy if we drafted him in the 2nd...Hard to imagine him making it that far. 

 

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1 hour ago, Blanka said:

Glad to hear Hoffman say the FO is high on N'Keal Harry. 

 

 

Best outside Receiver in this draft imo

 

I've heard Hoffman say a scout he knows is really high on N'Keal Harry and likes him better than Metcalf.   He also said the Redskins like him?  i listen to him all the time so I guess somehow I missed that. 

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27 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 It’s interesting to me that outside runs were a problem for us under Barry as well - he started trying to have his ILBs cover the outside and I remember questioning it.  Easy to say Barry and Manusky just can’t coach, but this is pretty basic, right?  So I think it comes down to personnel.  Here’s hoping Collins helps (a lot).  Of course, he’s got to be used properly... 

 

Yeah you definitely need the players to field a good defense, no matter what your scheme is.  And 3-4 fronts, especially under fronts like we ran back in the Barry days have a reputation for being very taxing on the edge players and the linebackers because they have to do a lot of reading before they hit their run fits.  Our players were not smart and/or fast enough to handle the responsibilities.

 

Collins and Reuben Foster up the ante on our talent level at SS and stack linebacker quite a bit.  Ironically, Collins's excellence at playing force from a box safety role should let us simplify our scheme by reducing the tight end reads our edge player and stack linebacker has to make.  Either the tight end blocks down on our edge player/linebacker and leaves Collins a free hat on the running back--an obviously bad outcome for any strongside run.  Or, more likely, the TE is going to have to reach Collins and the edge player/LBer will get the alley in the C gap and only have to read the tackle.  Or else they'd have to use a fullback/H-back and kick out block Collins, but that is unusual.  On most plays, our guys should only have to make one read so hopefully they can reach their fits faster.

 

If we're smart, we'll basically use Collins as an extra linebacker out there on the edge.  That'll make pass defense from non-obvious pass personnel more challenging, and we're going to have to cover him up like @Alcoholic Zebra suggested.  But it should make run defense easier.

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17 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Also I feel a need pick at 15 coming a mile away.  We've set ourselves up to draft DK Metcalf if he's there.  If not, then maybe we could reach for Hakeem Butler.  I'm not in love with either outcome to be honest.  Kind of would rather have someone else take on Metcalf and instead trade down into the late first to get into a more natural range for Hakeem Butler.  At 15, the value should be a lot better at cornerback, defensive tackle, and defensive end/OLB than at WR.

 

Hoffman has been doubling down that he heard from people he knows at the FO that they want a blue chipper who can hit the ground running and contribute immediately for a win now season.  If he's right that doesn't scream to me Metcalf, though I like him.   I am thinking OLB-MLB-OG.  Actually some TE's hit the ground running.  WRs tend to take time -- Metcalf has a ton of tools but wonder if he's polished enough as a route runner to hit the ground running in a win now season. 

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16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I've heard Hoffman say a scout he knows is really high on N'Keal Harry and likes him better than Metcalf.   He also said the Redskins like him?  i listen to him all the time so I guess somehow I missed that. 

 

Yeah earlier this morning on the Junkies he said they're high on Harry and Marquise Brown. I've heard him say Brown previously, hearing Harry was new for me. 

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8 minutes ago, Blanka said:

 

Yeah earlier this morning on the Junkies he said they're high on Harry and Marquise Brown. I've heard him say Brown previously, hearing Harry was new for me. 

 

OK, thanks. Yeah I've heard Marquise multiple times from him previously.  I didn't hear Hoffman this morning.  Harry is a new mention.  Heard him post combine saying a scout told him they thought Harry was better than Metcalf.   Keim keeps saying he's been told they are going to go receiver in this draft -- I've been presuming though in the 2nd round as opposed to first.   It does feel a lot like last year where we kept hearing they would go RB early and they did so. 

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Who knows if what's below is true but I did hear a NY reporter on radio say recently he heard the Giants like but don't love Haskins.  He thought they might draft him if he falls to 6 but didn't think they'd trade up and thought Gettleman is more obsessed with the pass rushers in the draft.

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Skin'emAlive said:

I would go bpa wr with #15, then cross the fingers that Winovich is available at #14 in the 2nd. If he’s there, you take him to replace Preston Smith, and possibly Kerrigan in the future. 

 

Otherwise, BPA left guard in the 2nd. 

There's so many 6'2"+ 220lb guys available this year though.

Metcalf is a physical freak, but raw. Some of the other guys are more polished but not the physical specimen that he is.

Personally, I'd go ILB/TE in the 1st, with WR being a distant third.. hoping I could roll the dice on Butler, Harry, or one of those other guys being there in the 2nd.

 

Although let's say Metcalf is there at 15.. we take him and maybe have an outside shot at Winnovich in the 2nd.. (but I think he goes late 1st, real early 2nd)

 

The packers seem to be in win now mode, they're signing everyone and everyone. I'd target them for a trade down for their #30 pick. They've got two #1's, they'd pick 12th and 15th (win for them) We'd get their 1st (#30) and 2nd +4th (ours from the Dix trade)

Hopefully there's someone they really like/need at 15 (like a big WR)

That would leave the skins with: 30, 44, 46, 76, 96, 118, 153, 173 throughout the first 5 rounds.

here's what my draft would look like:

1:30 Bush/Wilson/Hock (if he's there)

2:44,46 One of Butler/Harry/Campbell/Harmon, and with the other, bpa of these guys: G Lindstrom/Bradbury/Jenkins TE Smith/Fant/Hock OLB Winnovich

3:76,96 pick 2 of any of these guys: Isabella/Humphrey/Montgomery/Sternberger/Finley/Stidham/McCoy/Pratt/

4:118 Bangou/Scharping/Humphrey/Pierschbacher/Powers/Rypien/Love

5:153,173 Gentry/Layne/Connolley/Sweeney/Moreau/Savage

 

I think we'd be able to do some damage with those picks.

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Not a chance pack go with an edge in the top 2 rounds after what they spent this offseason. I have them landing Devin in the 1st and then brown at wr, and possibly Irv Smith or a corner in the 2nd. 

 

I think we have have a realistic shot at Winovich in the 2nd, but would be just as happy with a guard. 

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Hoffman has been doubling down that he heard from people he knows at the FO that they want a blue chipper who can hit the ground running and contribute immediately for a win now season.  If he's right that doesn't scream to me Metcalf, though I like him.   I am thinking OLB-MLB-OG.  Actually some TE's hit the ground running.  WRs tend to take time -- Metcalf has a ton of tools but wonder if he's polished enough as a route runner to hit the ground running in a win now season. 

 

So who could be available in the #15-#46 range that's Day 1 contributing to a winning season?  We can rule out DL immediately, as their impact is lower due to snaps shared with Payne, Allen, and Ioannidis.  I don't think any QB available in that range is Day 1 ready to contribute.

 

Guard - Jonah Williams, Cody Ford, Dalton Risner, Erik McCoy, Chris Lindstrom

Edge - Clelin Ferrell

TE - TJ Hockenson (maybe Irv Smith and Fant)

WR - Marquise Brown

ILB - Devin Bush, (maybe Blake Cashman)

 

A lot of the WR's have potential, but are just raw.  There are some less talented guys who are more ready like Riley Ridley and AJ Brown.  A fair amount of speedsters as well as big body guys.  But ready Day 1 to contribute towards a winning season?  I'm not sure.

 

If that's the plan, for guys who are more polished...then the list narrows considerably right?  I didn't include safeties as I haven't watched guys like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and I need to see more of Nasir Adderley.

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17 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Hockenson offers value at 15.  Not going to lie, it took some of the shine off of him to see Noah Fant, Kahale Warring, Foster Moreau, and Irv Smith light up the combine.  Hockenson's potential isn't that much better than theirs given they're all as athletic as him, if not more so. 

 

Other than his 40 time, Hockenson's combine numbers/athleticism were excellent: TE numbers at the combine

 

Fant's numbers were incredible (though I take it his tape isn't as good, particularly as to blocking). But Hockenson was second best, with Kahale, Warring and Moreau overall a shade behind, and Smith a fair ways back.

 

I like Hockenson at 15 (but i don't think he'll be there).

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I would not go TE in the 1st unless you already have your QB and know what his strengths are. It’s why I don’t think Green Bay will go TE and why signing Graham was a mistake. Aaron throws primarily to WR because his offensive style ( street ball) requires the receivers to ad-lib. 

 

A top WR is always higher in priority than a top TE unless his name is Gronkowski. You can get great value at TE from rounds 4-6. 

 

Example : George Kittle | round 5 pick # 146

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7 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

I would not go TE in the 1st unless you already have your QB and know what his strengths are. It’s why I don’t think Green Bay will go TE and why signing Graham was a mistake. Aaron throws primarily to WR because his offensive style ( street ball) requires the receivers to ad-lib. 

 

A top WR is always higher in priority than a top TE unless his name is Gronkowski. You can get great value at TE from rounds 4-6. 

 

Example : George Kittle | round 5 pick # 146

 

George Kittle is the outlier.  It's not every draft where the most athletic guy in the class, and the nastiest blocker, isn't drafted in the first 4 rounds for some reason.  I don't know how he wasn't drafted higher.

 

To put it another way, according to 3 sigma, he'd be the 2nd most athletic TE in this stacked 2019 TE draft class, just a bit behind Noah Fant.  How does someone like that, who also shows a great blocking demeanor...fall to the 5th round?  That's baffling, and you've gotta be sure that no GM will make that same mistake again.

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4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Who knows if what's below is true but I did hear a NY reporter on radio say recently he heard the Giants like but don't love Haskins.  He thought they might draft him if he falls to 6 but didn't think they'd trade up and thought Gettleman is more obsessed with the pass rushers in the draft.

 

 

 

 

Snaptastic.

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I like Hockenson a lot.  Wouldn’t mind him at 15 at all.  Thing is... if I could trade down in the 1st for a 3rd and 4th round pick...

I could land a starting guard, draft a TE like Warring in the 3rd and still have a 4th round pick to play with (in addition to our 2nd, 2 3rds, etc).  Having 8+ picks through round 5 would be huge in this draft.  

 

Obviously, we need a LG and FS.  Could really use a wr (or 2), an edge rusher, ILB, a back, a TE, developmental qb and oline depth.  Would be nice to add a corner and maybe a 3rd down back.  In other words, the more picks the merrier IMO.  

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18 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Mark Andrews : round 3

Jimmy Graham : round 3

Austin Hooper : round 3

Zach Ertz : round 2

Rob Gronkowski: round 2

Travis Kelce : round 3

 

I would take nearly all of these guys at 15 if we're being honest. Knowing what I know now about them. 

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