2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

Well the Landon Collins signing pretty much takes away our ability to draft Jonathan Abrams or Taylor Rapp in the 2nd.  They would have the same role as Collins and never see the field.  This is a little disappointing because the second round value at safety this year was looking really good.

[Going Commando]

Also I feel a need pick at 15 coming a mile away.  We've set ourselves up to draft DK Metcalf if he's there.  If not, then maybe we could reach for Hakeem Butler.  I'm not in love with either outcome to be honest.  Kind of would rather have someone else take on Metcalf and instead trade down into the late first to get into a more natural range for Hakeem Butler.  At 15, the value should be a lot better at cornerback, defensive tackle, and defensive end/OLB than at WR.

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Also I feel a need pick at 15 coming a mile away.  We've set ourselves up to draft DK Metcalf if he's there.  If not, then maybe we could reach for Hakeem Butler.  I'm not in love with either outcome to be honest.  Kind of would rather have someone else take on Metcalf and instead trade down into the late first to get into a more natural range for Hakeem Butler.  At 15, the value should be a lot better at cornerback, defensive tackle, and defensive end/OLB than at WR.

 

For real, picking Metcalf seems like something were heading for if we seem more serious about Rosen then drafting a QB in first round.  I'm already annoyed with idea of having to defend it in a couple months.

[Going Commando]

3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

  

For real, picking Metcalf seems like something were heading for if we seem more serious about Rosen then drafting a QB in first round.  I'm already annoyed with idea of having to defend it in a couple months. 

 

I think the Case Keenum acquisition was made in order to pass on QB this year.  I think we're going to roll into next season with McCoy and Keenum as our two QBs.

 

1 - I think we still want to see if Alex Smith can make it back for 2020, and thus want to avoid making any other long term commitments at the position if we can.

 

2 - I think we would pick either Haskins or Murray if they were in our range, but that we know we are drafting too low to realistically go up and get them.  Thus we know we're probably drafting too late to get a quality option this season and Keenum lets us put off drafting a QB for a year, and perhaps we'll have a higher pick next draft.

 

I think Keenum also keeps us from having to reach for Daniel Jones at 15, which is a relief to me.  I don't hate Daniel Jones like most of the thread regulars, but I wasn't particularly interested in drafting the bigger version of Alex Smith.  I want a higher upside prospect than him.  I want someone with the natural talent to eventually become a Probowl caliber player at the position.  Might as well swing big if you're starting at square one from the position.

 

As far as Metcalf goes, I wouldn't hate the value of picking him at 15.  It's a fair draft range for him.  I just don't think he's as good as guys like Byron Murphy/Ed Oliver/Christian Wilkins/Clelin Ferrell, etc. and I think there is a good chance at least one of them is there.  Plus I'm not in love with his fit for us in terms of offensive/organizational philosophy.  He's got elite potential but he's raw and we haven't developed the WR position well, nor do we have the kind of QBs that can run a vertical passing game well.  I think he would be so much better in an Andy Reid or Bruce Arians offense.  Maybe something like Pittsburgh runs.

 

But 100% agree about being able to see Metcalf coming if he's on the board at 15.  He even singled us out as his most memorable interview when they asked him who he talked to at the combine.  Apparently we were coaching him on his routes and it had an impact.  Felt like a preview of what was to come.

[Renegade7]

13 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think the Case Keenum acquisition was made in order to pass on QB this year.  I think we're going to roll into next season with McCoy and Keenum as our two QBs.

 

The day we did the trade I was thinking in my head what last years team would look like with the same Case Keenum that tore us a new asshole in 2017.  It was at that moment I realized Bruce was thinking the same thing, my dream was dead.

 

Quote

 

But 100% agree about being able to see Metcalf coming if he's on the board at 15.  He even singled us out as his most memorable interview when they asked him who he talked to at the combine.  Apparently we were coaching him on his routes and it had an impact.  Felt like a preview of what was to come.

 

Dude does look a little like Thanos

 

 

Itd be such a "we did the best we could" move in regards to also going after AB, you might as well pencil it in now.  The crwxy thing is it might work.

[mhd24]

16 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think the Case Keenum acquisition was made in order to pass on QB this year.  I think we're going to roll into next season with McCoy and Keenum as our two QBs.

 

1 - I think we still want to see if Alex Smith can make it back for 2020, and thus want to avoid making any other long term commitments at the position if we can.

 

2 - I think we would pick either Haskins or Murray if they were in our range, but that we know we are drafting too low to realistically go up and get them.  Thus we know we're probably drafting too late to get a quality option this season and Keenum lets us put off drafting a QB for a year, and perhaps we'll have a higher pick next draft.

 

I think Keenum also keeps us from having to reach for Daniel Jones at 15, which is a relief to me.  I don't hate Daniel Jones like most of the thread regulars, but I wasn't particularly interested in drafting the bigger version of Alex Smith.  I want a higher upside prospect than him.  I want someone with the natural talent to eventually become a Probowl caliber player at the position.  Might as well swing big if you're starting at square one from the position.

 

As far as Metcalf goes, I wouldn't hate the value of picking him at 15.  It's a fair draft range for him.  I just don't think he's as good as guys like Byron Murphy/Ed Oliver/Christian Wilkins/Clelin Ferrell, etc. and I think there is a good chance at least one of them is there.  Plus I'm not in love with his fit for us in terms of offensive/organizational philosophy.  He's got elite potential but he's raw and we haven't developed the WR position well, nor do we have the kind of QBs that can run a vertical passing game well.  I think he would be so much better in an Andy Reid or Bruce Arians offense.  Maybe something like Pittsburgh runs.

 

But 100% agree about being able to see Metcalf coming if he's on the board at 15.  He even singled us out as his most memorable interview when they asked him who he talked to at the combine.  Apparently we were coaching him on his routes and it had an impact.  Felt like a preview of what was to come.

 

 

I'd rather have the WRs in the 2nd round as there is more value there.  I do think the FO would run to the podium to take Devin White if he somehow fell to 15.  They know they need to get rid of Foster's slow unathletic MLB play.  I also think they'd take edge rusher if they could at 15 to replace Preston.  

[Renegade7]

12 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

I'd rather have the WRs in the 2nd round as there is more value there.  I do think the FO would run to the podium to take Devin White if he somehow fell to 15.  They know they need to get rid of Foster's slow unathletic MLB play.  I also think they'd take edge rusher if they could at 15 to replace Preston.  

 

I said guard or OLB in first round now that I think QB is dead, but with Collins signing, I would not be shocked for us to think about getting butts back in the seats moves.  Still very early, but I really want a trade down now.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

56 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Well the Landon Collins signing pretty much takes away our ability to draft Jonathan Abrams or Taylor Rapp in the 2nd.  They would have the same role as Collins and never see the field.  This is a little disappointing because the second round value at safety this year was looking really good.

 

What's Nasir Adderley's range?  Could trade down from #15 and scoop him up.  His skillset should work well with Collins.

 

Definitely thinking someone like him, or a pass rusher, or a Nickel corner.  We need to reduce the amount of coverage responsibility Collins has.  He's good at under zones. Sniffing out curls etc.  And if he can be kept there then he's a '+' in coverage.

 

I do wonder if we'll use Collins as a Moneybacker in Nickel/Dime like what we hoped for Su'a Cravens.  If so, maybe someone like Darnell Savage in the 3rd who can maybe play either safety spot?

[clskinsfan]

Nice write up on Mack Wilson here. While I am hoping we go CB or QB at 15. Wilson could be a nice consolation prize if we miss out on CJ Mosley.

 

https://steelersdepot.com/2019/01/2019-nfl-draft-player-profiles-alabama-lb-mack-wilson/

[Skin'emAlive]

I would go bpa wr with #15, then cross the fingers that Winovich is available at #14 in the 2nd. If he’s there, you take him to replace Preston Smith, and possibly Kerrigan in the future. 

 

Otherwise, BPA left guard in the 2nd. 

[mhd24]

My latest mock:

 

1)  AZ-Murray

2)  49ers-Bosa (have a feeling they want to trade down honestly)

3)  NYJ-Q Williams (with the rumors about them being interested in Preston (as well as signing Barr), I think they go with BPA here.  They would LOVE to trade down and recoup that last 2nd rounder in the Darnold trade).

4)  OAK-Josh Allen (easy pick.  They need an edge rusher)

5)  TB-Sweat (Devin White could be in play here)

6)  NYG-Haskins (I think they want to take an edge rusher.  I think they want to trade OBj to get multiple picks and take Daniel Jones with one of them)

7)  Jags-Taylor (Cam Robinson is coming off an ACL.  They need help at Tackle.  Hockenson could be in play here)

8-Detroit-Greedy Williams (They need Corners in that defense.  That division is pass happy.  Hockenson is in play here as well).

9)  Bills-Hockenson (Too good of a player to pass up here.  I know they just signed a TE in FA, but he's much better than Metcalf is)

10)  Denver-Lock (Flacco is a stopgap.  Need a QB of the future)

11)  Bengals-Devin White (easy pick here.  He's great value)

12)  GB-Gary (DE is a major need)

13)  Miami-Oliver (Could take Ferrell here as well)

14)  ATL-Jonah Williams (Thought about Oliver here, but O-line is a mess.  Can play T or any of the interior positions)

15)  WAS-(Ferrell, Burns, Fant, or Bush).  I'd love to trade down.  The value of this draft in the 22-60 range.  If push came to shove, I'd probably take Burns.  We need a speed rusher in the worst way.

[RedskinsFanInSanAntonio]

I’m starting to fall in love with Hockenson at 15. If only Murray or Lock are not there or a solid edge rusher is available. Take a receiver in the second, and a guard in the third. Trade your extra third for Rosen.

[CommandB11]

23 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

I would go bpa wr with #15, then cross the fingers that Winovich is available at #14 in the 2nd. If he’s there, you take him to replace Preston Smith, and possibly Kerrigan in the future. 

 

Otherwise, BPA left guard in the 2nd. 

I have seen Winovich mocked from late 2nd to late 4th. Thats a pretty wide range.

[Skins199021]

Yeah I am looking at the Raiders and saying hey you want 15 for number 24 and a 2nd?

[Fresh8686]

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Unless hes playing in the middle of the line the pressure is coming up the middle and that destroys everything.  Gonna have to disagree with this move right now, feels like a luxury considering other more pressing needs.  I'd take WR before TE, we dont even know if we have Vikings or Broncos Keenum yet.

 

That’s what taking Lindstrom in the 2nd handles. He’s seen as a day 1 starting left guard. And then hockenson presumably handles all the many many times where poor TE blocking killed our run game, while also eventually replacing reeds production. All of which plays really well with an offense focused on the run game and play action. 

[Renegade7]

3 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

That’s what taking Lindstrom in the 2nd handles. He’s seen as a day 1 starting left guard. And then hockenson presumably handles all the many many times where poor TE blocking killed our run game, while also eventually replacing reeds production. All of which plays really well with an offense focused on the run game and play action. 

 

Last was Reed healthiest, most wasted year i can remember.  I'd still trade him for a third, but that doesn't mean I'd pick TE at 15.  Is he really that good or just what some people want?

[Fresh8686]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

Last was Reed healthiest, most wasted year i can remember.  I'd still trade him for a third, but that doesn't mean I'd pick TE at 15.  Is he really that good or just what some people want?

 

Hockenson is good enough to be the pick at 15, definitely. 

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/t-j-hockenson

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

What's Nasir Adderley's range?  Could trade down from #15 and scoop him up.  His skillset should work well with Collins.

 

Definitely thinking someone like him, or a pass rusher, or a Nickel corner.  We need to reduce the amount of coverage responsibility Collins has.  He's good at under zones. Sniffing out curls etc.  And if he can be kept there then he's a '+' in coverage.

  

I do wonder if we'll use Collins as a Moneybacker in Nickel/Dime like what we hoped for Su'a Cravens.  If so, maybe someone like Darnell Savage in the 3rd who can maybe play either safety spot? 

 

I'm not sure.  The only safeties I've really thought about are Rapp, Abrams, Thornhill, and Thompson.

 

I like your idea of how to use Collins.  You're right that he should never really be in over coverages.  We wouldn't get any impact from him by playing him deep, if anything, he'd be a liabilty in that role.

 

I think we should run a lot of 4-2-5 and feature Collins as a run defender.  Our run defense wasn't as good as it should have been given how much talent we have in our front seven.  Collins's biggest strength is as a box run defender and we should just define him as our strong side force player so we can simplify our run defense and let the speed and talent of our box players get it done.  I read an article on PFF that basically said Landon Collins is a stack linebacker in all but name now.  I hope we don't try and fight that by trying to use him in a more traditional safety role.

 

I also want to see what kind of upside Collins has as a blitzer.  He's not as good as Derwin James, but James is the model for how we should try and use Collins.

[Going Commando]

51 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Last was Reed healthiest, most wasted year i can remember.  I'd still trade him for a third, but that doesn't mean I'd pick TE at 15.  Is he really that good or just what some people want?

 

Hockenson offers value at 15.  Not going to lie, it took some of the shine off of him to see Noah Fant, Kahale Warring, Foster Moreau, and Irv Smith light up the combine.  Hockenson's potential isn't that much better than theirs given they're all as athletic as him, if not more so.  But I think Hockenson still offers the most complete package of high end traits and he's still a pretty raw player with a lot of untapped upside.  If he becomes the kind of blocker I think he can be to go along with all of that receiving talent, he could end up being one of the best tight ends in the NFL.

 

Tight End has kind of a funny position value.  On the one hand, it's draft value is not that great.  Good starting tight ends get picked outside of the first round all of the time, and the position rarely matches the draft value of wide receiver or offensive tackle.  But it's on field impact can be pretty huge, and belie the mediocre draft value.  The Patriots and Chiefs have proven that.  You can cover up a sketchy OT and below average receiving core with a great tight end.

 

That said, Hockenson is still a pretty sizeable project and I think I would value Metcalf ahead of him.  Metcalf's has the potential to be an uncoverable outside threat who will spend all of your pass downs taking the lid off the over coverage.  I can get passable play at TE far easier than I can get that lining up for me at split end.

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Well the Landon Collins signing pretty much takes away our ability to draft Jonathan Abrams or Taylor Rapp in the 2nd.  They would have the same role as Collins and never see the field.  This is a little disappointing because the second round value at safety this year was looking really good.

Really like Rapp’s game, though Abram seems to have moved beyond our 2nd rounder in mocks I’ve seen more recently (like, a lot earlier).  But who knows.  

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Also I feel a need pick at 15 coming a mile away.  We've set ourselves up to draft DK Metcalf if he's there.  If not, then maybe we could reach for Hakeem Butler.  I'm not in love with either outcome to be honest.  Kind of would rather have someone else take on Metcalf and instead trade down into the late first to get into a more natural range for Hakeem Butler. 

Absolutely on both fronts.  Hope we don’t take Metcalf and a trade back for Butler sounds good to me.  Was just watching tape of Arcega-Whiteside, and I agree with your take.  Depends partly on who is going to play qb for us, but I like him.  

Quote

 

At 15, the value should be a lot better at cornerback, defensive tackle, and defensive end/OLB than at WR.

Definitely.  If White lastsI could see going that route - we really need to improve vs the outside runs and guarding the flats (looking at you Mason).  Like Murphy there as well.  

4 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

For real, picking Metcalf seems like something were heading for if we seem more serious about Rosen then drafting a QB in first round.  I'm already annoyed with idea of having to defend it in a couple months.

Haha!  Totally feel you here man.  

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think the Case Keenum acquisition was made in order to pass on QB this year.  I think we're going to roll into next season with McCoy and Keenum as our two QBs.

I think Rosen for Keenum and a 3rd is still very much in play... though I think we may have to throw in a late pick (probably from next year).  If not, I’m almost willing to bet we use our 3rd round comp pick on a qb.  McCoy and Keenum on one year deals... we badly need a young guy to develop, even if they’re just a future backup.  I could see a 5th though, since we may want to PS them.  

Quote

 

1 - I think we still want to see if Alex Smith can make it back for 2020, and thus want to avoid making any other long term commitments at the position if we can.

God, I hope not.  With that said, he’s a big investment.  Waiting until next year (besides a flier) for qb makes some degree of sense.  

Quote

 

2 - I think we would pick either Haskins or Murray if they were in our range, but that we know we are drafting too low to realistically go up and get them.  Thus we know we're probably drafting too late to get a quality option this season and Keenum lets us put off drafting a QB for a year, and perhaps we'll have a higher pick next draft.

Yep.  I am starting to wonder if Haskins falls.  On the other hand, I haven’t heard we like him (vs Murray, Lock, Jones, etc).  

Quote

 

I think Keenum also keeps us from having to reach for Daniel Jones at 15, which is a relief to me.  I don't hate Daniel Jones like most of the thread regulars, but I wasn't particularly interested in drafting the bigger version of Alex Smith.  I want a higher upside prospect than him.  I want someone with the natural talent to eventually become a Probowl caliber player at the position.  Might as well swing big if you're starting at square one from the position.

Jones might be the one guy I’d hate to pick at 15.  I’m with SIP on that one.  

Quote

 

As far as Metcalf goes, I wouldn't hate the value of picking him at 15.  It's a fair draft range for him.  I just don't think he's as good as guys like Byron Murphy/Ed Oliver/Christian Wilkins/Clelin Ferrell, etc. and I think there is a good chance at least one of them is there.  Plus I'm not in love with his fit for us in terms of offensive/organizational philosophy.  He's got elite potential but he's raw and we haven't developed the WR position well, nor do we have the kind of QBs that can run a vertical passing game well.  I think he would be so much better in an Andy Reid or Bruce Arians offense.  Maybe something like Pittsburgh runs.

 

But 100% agree about being able to see Metcalf coming if he's on the board at 15.  He even singled us out as his most memorable interview when they asked him who he talked to at the combine.  Apparently we were coaching him on his routes and it had an impact.  Felt like a preview of what was to come.

Right there with you.  I just don’t see the value for receiver at 15 given the depth later.  My bet is still trading down for a guard (assuming Ford and Taylor are gone).  If they can’t trade back, well... I could see a bunch of options - White, Hockenson, Williams, Murphy, Ferrell, etc.  

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I said guard or OLB in first round now that I think QB is dead, but with Collins signing, I would not be shocked for us to think about getting butts back in the seats moves.  Still very early, but I really want a trade down now.

Fo sho.  

3 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

What's Nasir Adderley's range?  Could trade down from #15 and scoop him up.  His skillset should work well with Collins.

 

Definitely thinking someone like him, or a pass rusher, or a Nickel corner.  We need to reduce the amount of coverage responsibility Collins has.  He's good at under zones. Sniffing out curls etc.  And if he can be kept there then he's a '+' in coverage.

 

I do wonder if we'll use Collins as a Moneybacker in Nickel/Dime like what we hoped for Su'a Cravens.  If so, maybe someone like Darnell Savage in the 3rd who can maybe play either safety spot?

Adderley has been moving up steadily I think - late 1st-early second.  My guess right now is that Thornhill (another FS type I really like) is also gone before our pick in the 2nd, and Savage is gone by the 3rd.  My guess right now is we roll with Everett (with Nicholson returning from suspension) and Apke, and we either draft a FS late or go for an UDFA... or we re-sign HaHA.  

1 hour ago, Skin'emAlive said:

I would go bpa wr with #15, then cross the fingers that Winovich is available at #14 in the 2nd. If he’s there, you take him to replace Preston Smith, and possibly Kerrigan in the future. 

 

Otherwise, BPA left guard in the 2nd. 

Would love Winovich in the 2nd.  Would not love wr in the 1st (at 14 at least).  

1 hour ago, panahoo said:

I have seen Winovich mocked from late 2nd to late 4th. Thats a pretty wide range.

I think he goes late 1st to mid 2nd.  With his combine, I’m guessing he’s gone by our 2nd pick.  

1 hour ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

That’s what taking Lindstrom in the 2nd handles. He’s seen as a day 1 starting left guard. And then hockenson presumably handles all the many many times where poor TE blocking killed our run game, while also eventually replacing reeds production. All of which plays really well with an offense focused on the run game and play action. 

Yeah, Hockenson (or Fant), a LG, edge and ILB are the 4 positions I see helping us the most, because they each address two different weaknesses.  TE actually addresses 3 due to Reed’s unavailability.  

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Last was Reed healthiest, most wasted year i can remember.  I'd still trade him for a third, but that doesn't mean I'd pick TE at 15.  Is he really that good or just what some people want?

He’s that good.  You mentioned (I believe) Keenum and needing receivers.  Well, as they say, a TE is a qbs best friend.  One that is a mismatch in the pass game and a big plus in the ground game could be huge for us.  I do like some of the depth at the position though, so I don’t mind waiting on Irv Smith, Kaden Smith, Sternberger or Raymond.  Others are intriguing as well.  

 

 

Geez, sorry for the multi quote bonanza, lol

 

Edit: @stevemcqueen1 I absolutely love your last two posts.  Kudos man. 

So much of the damage via the run game against us seemed to come from outside leverage issues.  If we used Collins in that role, that could be huge for us.  

[Renegade7]

8 hours ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

Hockenson is good enough to be the pick at 15, definitely. 

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/t-j-hockenson

 

You make a good case, its just going to be hard for me absorb when our last two pro bowl TEs were taken in the third round.  I can't get that out my head when considering other needs.

[Going Commando]

7 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Edit: @stevemcqueen1 I absolutely love your last two posts.  Kudos man.  

So much of the damage via the run game against us seemed to come from outside leverage issues.  If we used Collins in that role, that could be huge for us.   

 

Yeah I think you're right.  We had more trouble reaching our run fits than we should have had, and I think when your players aren't playing as fast as they should be, then it's time to simplify your system.

 

We could use a little more talent in the unit too.  Ryan Anderson will probably start now, so we shouldn't experience too terribly much of a dropoff in our run defense.  He might even end up being better there.  But you need a rotation at edge and now we need another high quality rotation player.  Plus Preston Smith played end in some of our fronts whereas I don't know that Anderson would be good in that role.

 

And I think both M Foster and Brown need to be upgraded.  R Foster is probably one big upgrade, but we could use a second high quality stack guy.  That's where Te'Von Coney comes in for me.  I think he is being hugely underrated and he could be quite the value pick in the third round.  Maybe even fourth if we're able to maneuver down in the draft and pick up more selections.

[Renegade7]

7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Tight End has kind of a funny position value.  On the one hand, it's draft value is not that great.  Good starting tight ends get picked outside of the first round all of the time, and the position rarely matches the draft value of wide receiver or offensive tackle.  But it's on field impact can be pretty huge, and belie the mediocre draft value.  The Patriots and Chiefs have proven that.  You can cover up a sketchy OT and below average receiving core with a great tight end.

 

 

I agree with this, just if i had a choice is do more homework to see if I could find a pro bowl TE outside the first round.  Gronk and Kelce were taken in the 2nd and 3rd respectively.

[kingdaddy]

9 hours ago, mhd24 said:

My latest mock:

 

1)  AZ-Murray

2)  49ers-Bosa (have a feeling they want to trade down honestly)

3)  NYJ-Q Williams (with the rumors about them being interested in Preston (as well as signing Barr), I think they go with BPA here.  They would LOVE to trade down and recoup that last 2nd rounder in the Darnold trade).

4)  OAK-Josh Allen (easy pick.  They need an edge rusher)

5)  TB-Sweat (Devin White could be in play here)

6)  NYG-Haskins (I think they want to take an edge rusher.  I think they want to trade OBj to get multiple picks and take Daniel Jones with one of them)

7)  Jags-Taylor (Cam Robinson is coming off an ACL.  They need help at Tackle.  Hockenson could be in play here)

8-Detroit-Greedy Williams (They need Corners in that defense.  That division is pass happy.  Hockenson is in play here as well).

9)  Bills-Hockenson (Too good of a player to pass up here.  I know they just signed a TE in FA, but he's much better than Metcalf is)

10)  Denver-Lock (Flacco is a stopgap.  Need a QB of the future)

11)  Bengals-Devin White (easy pick here.  He's great value)

12)  GB-Gary (DE is a major need)

13)  Miami-Oliver (Could take Ferrell here as well)

14)  ATL-Jonah Williams (Thought about Oliver here, but O-line is a mess.  Can play T or any of the interior positions)

15)  WAS-(Ferrell, Burns, Fant, or Bush).  I'd love to trade down.  The value of this draft in the 22-60 range.  If push came to shove, I'd probably take Burns.  We need a speed rusher in the worst way.

I'm with you, I can see us trading out of the 15 slot and picking up a late 1st rounder with additional mid-round picks. We need too many pieces to stay at 15 (WR, edge, G, TE, S). The 15 spot is a great spot to move from, someone is gonna fall and there will be a team that wants to move up. My plan would be to see if Cole Beasley would play here and then add a WR in the 2nd round.....roll with Beasley, PRich, Harris, Doc, Quinn, Robert Davis or Cam Sims and the rookie 2nd rounder. Given Keenum's mobility, just get quick guys who find spots to get open and create space for Jordan Reed with Richardson going deep. I'd love to use Beasley against Dallas, Philly and NYG...he's a durable pain in the a$$ type player to play against. Wouldn't it be something if Keenum turns out to be the guy who gets Doc to take the next step? A guy can dream.

[Going Commando]

42 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I agree with this, just if i had a choice is do more homework to see if I could find a pro bowl TE outside the first round.  Gronk and Kelce were taken in the 2nd and 3rd respectively. 

 

Kelce got missed on (kind of surprised he fell given how good his tape was), but the reason Gronk fell to the 2nd is because he had a bad back at Arizona.  If he had been healthy his final year, he'd have been an early first round pick.

 

Guys do fall at TE though.  We talk about how raw the OLs coming out of college are these days, and the same is generally true for tight ends.  The vast majority of TEs come out needing a lot of work as blockers.  Hockenson is further along as a blocker than most, but he stlll needs a lot of work in this area too.  He's also kind of narrow-framed and, while I think he can become an elite move blocker in the run game, I have my doubts about him being able to become the kind of highly useful pass blocker like the bigger framed TEs like Gronk are/were.  He should probably always be running routes instead.

 

Some of the second tier names to consider: Warring, Fant, and Smith are all inriguing.  Fant is like a smaller, faster version of Hockenson, with less potential as a run blocker.  Very similar strengths and weaknesses otherwise, Hockenson is just bigger and better than him.  But the plus side to Fant is you can probably get him in the second round.

 

Irv Smith will probably be there for us in the second round too.  He's a Jordan Reed style TE--undersized receiving specialist who doesn't have a lot of potential as an in-line blocker but can be highly effective as more of a fullback-style lead blocker.  You give up some things with Smith compared to Hockenson, but him in the second is probably better value than Hockenson at 15.

 

And I am intrigued by Kahale Warring based on his combine performances.  He's big and brawny and explosive and I think he could be end up being an unpolished gem.  Maybe he doesn't get good, but I'd like to see what he's capable of after NFL coaches get their hands on him.  Supposedly he came to the game late and still has a lot to learn about blocking and route running.

 

One last thing to think about with TEs that kind of throws a wet blanket on their draft value is the very high attrition rate of the position.  It's arguably the most brutal position in the sport.  Definitely the most brutal on offense.  You're basically either battling bigger and stronger players in the trenches or getting your head taken off by safeties and linebackers.  Guys don't have long careers at the spot and the injuries they suffer are really frequent and severe.  I think that's the main reason why teams are hesitant to spend first round draft picks on any but the very best receiving prospects at tight end, despite the fact that the position can be so impactful on the field itself.  Thus the market inefficiency is explained (and exploited by the best teams).

 

I'm with you, I would rather move out of 15 and gain draft picks and target TE later in the draft.  I like that trade that @Skins199021 proposed of moving down with Oakland to get 24 and a 2nd.  We'd probably have to include something else to get the value to match up, but if you could pull that off, then you could get two for the price of one.  Hakeem Buler + Irv Smith/Noah Fant instead of just Hockenson or just Metcalf.  I'm also good with waiting on TE to try and chase value at the position later on day two or early day three.  Wouldn't mind taking a shot on Warring or someone like Dawson Knox from Ole Miss.  Or seeing if we can make something out of a blocking specialist like Trevon Wesco.  Foster Moreau is another one worth looking into in that range, as he's a significantly better athlete than anyone realized.

 

This is a really good tight end crop and we should be able to get very high value at the position on day 2 and early day 3.  I think there could be as many as 7 or 8 future starters in this bunch, and I count at least five who I see as definitely having the natural talent to become a starter.