Romberjo

Dantzler ran a reported 4.38 at his pro day. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2885886-video-miss-sts-cam-dantzler-runs-438-40-after-clocking-464-at-nfl-combine. You have to discount for pro day timing versus combine electronic timing--but still, obviously a lot faster than 4.64.

I think Consigliere is distinguishing between front office-like analytics and scout-like analytics. I agree with you (and suspect he at least mostly agrees with you) about, e.g., the power of analytics to predict which particular players are going to be good NFL QBs: helpful, but not at all definitive, and no one has a basis to say they are "correct." But that's not really what he's talking about. And I don't think he's insistent that he's right about his views of particular players, analytics-driven or otherwise. I agree with him, though, about front-office/GM analytics, e.g., which positions are relatively valuable to draft in the first round (given rookie salary cap, vet salary at the position, the salary necessary to get a replacement level fill-in), when it generally makes sense to trade down (or up) in the draft, etc. Why Scot McCloughan knows football a lot better than any of us, but he didn't understand some aspects of the draft all that well. He said he didn't pay attention to what others thought. That's just flat-out a mistake. Part of the optimal draft strategy requires you to take into account what you understand others' preferences to be so that your trades and picks are optimized. E.g., I knew from a comment he made on some podcast shortly before the draft in 2016 that he was looking to draft Ryan Kelly (which he confirmed, years later); the Colts might well have figured that out, also. Could have played a role in our getting Doctson, instead (e.g., because the Colts decided not to trade down because they realized they wouldn't be able to get him, say, five spots later). He projected, thought that other teams would ignore his preferences, just like he ignored theirs. If you have Kam Curl rated as a second-round talent but have good reason to believe he's widely rated as a 6th or 7th rounder, your ideal strategy is to pick him somewhat later than if he were generally understood to be a second-round pick. For those kinds of issues, which don't pertain to individual player evaluation, but to working the market, there pretty much is a (generally) correct principle as a matter of game theory. Which isn't to say that those principles can't be over-ridden in particular instances by countervailing considerations, including individual talent. But that's why he thinks he's right, because that's the area of analytics he has good reason to be confident about, not about how one balances college completion percentage against work ethic for a QB prospect.

I have no particular qualifications as a talent evaluator, but I did record all our preseason games last season and watched Geron Christian very closely on every play, in slow motion, because I very much wanted to see if we had anything at all in him. He was really, really terrible. Weak and confused. Definitely run blocking, but pass blocking, also. Maybe he spent the pandemic lifting buckets of concrete like Chase and has put it all put it all together, but from my perspective--moderately informed fan paying very close attention--that's highly unlikely. (Charles seems to have orders of magnitude more promise at this point.)

Rapoport (and Silver) have been very plugged in to everything Rivera-related. So that suggests strongly to me that Rapoport's tweet is correct (along with the fact that it makes a lot of sense): KOC is in fact still the favorite, Turner is being brought in with the allure (and public perception boost) of a meaningful possibility of his being hired as OC this year (with the strong likelihood that he will be hired as QB coach and his being groomed to be future OC here if KOC leaves).