Alcoholic Zebra

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About Alcoholic Zebra

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  • Birthday 06/29/1985

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  1. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    People keep saying IF Tua is healthy he's an amazing prospect. And yeah, who wouldn't agree. But I think equating what happens from his medical results that come out soon, with a statement of Tua is now healthy and risk free doesn't make sense. He's got a track record of being injury prone. Including the last one where people were initially worried it was a career ender. Are we expecting him to suddenly no longer have his injury issues in the pro's? Drafting Tua is exciting, but there's a fair amount of injury risk that has to be considered regardless of his upcoming test. ----------------- For people talking about Haskins in regards to Tua. Let's pretend Tua gets healthier and stays healthy. The equation would be: Tua + random player we draft from trading Haskins (2nd rounder?) ...vs... Haskins + Chase Young.
  2. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    I haven't looked at Edwards, and I should probably watch another game or two of both Mims and Johnson. But as of right now, I've got Mims as a significantly better prospect than Johnson. I know I need to watch more of Shenault, but I've got MIms ahead of him as well. But that's more so that I'm pretty meh enough on Shenault, that I'm hoping the Eagles/Cowboys/Giants draft him high. I think he's going to bust. Fun fact, over the last third of the NFL season. Who was the 2nd most productive rookie WR in the league? Steven Sims. I'm saying we've got our future X and Slot receivers already. From a Need basis for Redskins, we need a Z receiver. I don't think Harmon can cut it. But adding a Z lets Harmon move to Big Slot or backup Z depending on sub package. I think Shenault's career will be best as a slot guy. Someone in bunches, stacks, etc that you scheme more to get the ball into their hands. I don't think he's capable of reliable production. I'm not sure yet, but I'm wondering if Tyler Johnson (need to watch more of him), is best as a slot in the NFL. I think we've got that covered. Mims is physical during routes and he's physical with the ball in the air. He doesn't have that rare gear to separate, but what he does have is long arms and really nice hand fighting. He can hand fight while maintaining stride. He's a legitimate deep threat. I think Mims can be a full time Z receiver if needed. Also, in terms of being a X, Z, or Slot WR. It's easier (imo) to find quality slots in future drafts, than it is X or Z. I'd rather spend a draft pick, in a deep WR draft, on someone who profiles to be an X or Z.
  3. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Firmly disagree. This was Samuel's 3rd year in the league, by this time, if you were going to break out and be a good WR, it would happen. Instead we got someone whose not a deep threat, catching only 51.4% of his passes. His fellow starting WR, DJ Moore, caught 64.4%. Curtis Samuel is supposed to be a weapon with the ball in his hands. But he only averaged 2.8 yards extra after each catch. In comparison: -DJ Moore, 4.4 YAC per reception -Deebo Samuel, 8.3 YAC per reception Curtis Samuel had 2 different Head Coaches and 3 different QB's. Let's compare him to another team that had the same situation, the Redskins: - Steven Sims, 5.1 YAC - Terry McLaurin, 3.7 YAC - Kelvin Harmon, 3.1 YAC Harmon is a plodder, he's not doing anything with the ball in his hands yet had more YAC per reception than Samuel. We can't even blame the Panthers awkward situation as the reason Samuel had such a low YAC per reception either. He also had only 2.8 YAC in 2018 as well. At a certain point this is who he is.
  4. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Yeah, true. But a quality team can figure that out. I thought the same about Ryan Shazier, but the Steelers figured out how to help Shazier roam free. Ray Lewis is another example. Great linebacker that turned into a HoFer from the Ravens being determined to scheme him free of blockers. It can be done, but you need an organization who wants to build a defense around a guy.
  5. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Uh, that's it. You've just named them. The recent endless supply of studs stops at 2. 2019 - 3rd round, Terry McLaurin (1 season over 900 yards) 2017 - 2nd round, Michael Thomas (4 seasons) You'd have to go back to the 2009 draft, Brian Hartline in the 4th round, to find the next OSU WR with more than 900 receiving yards in a season. The perception of OSU producing WR talent is a new thing. You'd have to go back to the 1990's for OSU to be thought of that way. The OSU WR to be drafted higher than Terry last year, Parris Campbell, only had 127 receiving yards as a rookie. And it's not like he had any competition. TY Hilton kept getting hurt and only played in 44% of their snaps.
  6. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    That got me thinking. So the WR's who went on Day 3 of the 2014 draft. The best one was Martavis Bryant who fell due to character issues, and those same issues kicked him out of the league. The next best one was...Ryan Grant. So here's a list of best WR's taken on Day 3 from 2014-2017 (too early for 2018): 2015 - Jamison Crowder (fell due to being 5'8), Stefon Diggs (fell due to character concerns) 2016 - Tyreek Hill (fell due to beating up his pregnant girlfriend) 2017 - Dede Westbrook (fell due to Domestic Violence issues, and anger problems at the combine) The most recent Day 3 WR I can find, that didn't fall due to character issues or being tiny, is Kenny Stills in 2013. If we're thinking of taking a WR in the draft without character issues, odds are much better in Round 3. Someone I think I like (as of right now) more than Tyler Johnson, is Denzel Mims. He might be there at #66, if he is, it's going to be so hard to do anything but draft him. If we're willing to roll the dice on character issues a bit, then it's (imo) Quintez Cephus on Day 3.
  7. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    I heard he fell due to character issues. That said, if you liked him as Day 3 value, then you'll love him as a Futures Contract. E. Hall is on the Redskins roster. Only way I do that trade is if Stafford is off the Lions. I need some sort of clear show that they're taking a QB at #2 besides their word.
  8. Alcoholic Zebra

    Thoughts on Greg Olsen potentially signing here? (M.E.T.)

    We'd have to move quickly to get a quality starting CB. That's going to take money no matter what. We do have cap space, and if we wait until April, we probably won't get anybody who is starting caliber at TE, CB, or Safety.
  9. Alcoholic Zebra

    Thoughts on Greg Olsen potentially signing here? (M.E.T.)

    That's more money than I thought he'd get. This free agent period is going to be sticker shock with how much guys are getting.
  10. In that case it wasn't. Metrics had him as long shot to not bust. You need obscene speed to overcome a small frame with short arms. He just had average speed.
  11. Alcoholic Zebra

    Welcome to the Redskins Chase Young DE Ohio State

    Some compelling points about how it doesn't make sense for Detroit to move Stafford. #3 it can be argued, teams do weird stuff sometimes, see Odell's big extension and then trading him soon after. #4 is a good argument, his value this off-season will be low given how much QB talent is available. #5 is also good...Stafford was having a great year until he got hurt.
  12. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    I'm looking through it. Some of the dollar values seem ludicrous. - Byron Jones, $12 million a year. That puts him just outside the Top 10. I doubt that, and I would pay more money. - Austin Hooper, $11 million a year. Pricier than I thought, that puts him as the top TE earner in the league. - AJ Green gets $21 million a year? REALLY? That puts him above Michael Thomas. I'm sure AJ Green is still good, but he's been pretty injured lately. - Chris Harris, $15.4 million a year. He's going to be 31. That's a lot of money for someone best in the Nickel. - Breshad Perriman, $11 million a year. Speed kills I suppose, but that seems like a lot. - JeDaveon Clowney, $25 million a year. Wow. He's a great all around player, but not an elite pass rusher. - Dante Fowler, $23 million a year? Jesus Christ we need to draft Chase Young and not trade down. If mediocre Edge players get this much money, our only option is through the draft. Fowler is 'ok', and his best year had a decent chunk of the production coming from Guards freaking out over Aaron Donald and not picking up Fowler on the stunt. His QB hit totals are a little low compared to the sack number, that generally says regression will happen. - Bud Dupree, $16 million a year. More reasonable than Fowler, but still too high. - Robert Quinn, $15 million a year, this would be from ages 30-33. Quinn is finally healthy and had an early-career type season. I'm the most ok with this one. - Vic Beasley, $16 million a year. This is crazy high for someone so inconsistent that seldomly produces. Looking at the Trent Williams section, I accidentally skipped over some of our "moves" and had to re-read them. He inconsistently uses Team Name for everyone else, and then Team Location for us. I missed that he had us paying Trent Williams current money for the Saints LT, Andrus Peat. He's been a bit banged up the past two seasons, but it doesn't seem like serious injuries we'd have to worry about in the future (like knee issues, achilles, etc). $12 million a year for Peat seems alright, the trades he has us getting for Trent don't make sense. I don't think he realizes we lack a 2020 2nd rounder. He mentions it's likely we re-sign Brandon Scherff. So that's interesting. I really don't see it either. We picked up AP's 2020 option. We've got lots of talent, injured talent, but still talent in Guice and Love. Pair those two with the somehow immortal AP, and a load sharing deal with AP/Guice/Love just makes too much sense. I think Barnwell views the Redskins as still a moronic cluster****, and he has to have some team spend big money on RB's, so why not them. Barnwell says this: Did he not fact check? Xavien Howard has the most expensive CB deal. Interestingly. It seems like CB value is stagnating. Xavien Howard is going through a legal issue. Then the #2 AAV is Norman, who is getting cut. Then the #3 AAV is Trumaine Johnson, who Barnell thinks is getting cut. Then the #4 AAV is Rhodes, who Barnwell also thinks is leaving his team. This is a good year to want a CB in Free Agency. We could likely find a bargain compared to what the contracts might be like in 2-3 years time.
  13. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    I like how physical he is at the catch point when things are in front of him, but I do think he struggles tracking the ball overhead and contesting passes deeper down the field. Jaylon Johnson is going to be on the receiving end of some highlight bombs in the NFL. Your 2nd clip, shows what I mean about run defense. He slows up and only tries to make contact with the RB as he's already being brought down, this happened repeatedly. Some other examples about lackluster effort in the run game from the below clip: 1:29 - He sees the QB scrambling for a touchdown, but makes no effort and is content being blocked by the WR. 5:48 - His man goes in motion, so the safety has to come down and cover him, and Johnson rotates to deeper coverage. RB stumbles through the line, Johnson has to come in against the run on a RB way off balance aaaannnndd...he still misses the tackle. He's hesitant in coming up, and by the time he makes that decision, the RB has regained his balance. He does not want contact with runners. Some good plays so I'm not all negative: At 2:50 in the above clip. He's not involved, but I really like how he fluidly switches to the WR doing the rub route, and how he does it without even looking at it, that's natural for him. At 4:20 I really like his work in zone here. Sees the guy that's going to come into his zone early and moves to close the window before there even would be one. Keeps his eyes on the action in front of him, and then you can barely see he's already got his hips pointing forwards towards the guy in the flat if the QB goes in that direction. He's good in under zones, where he can backpedal and keep stuff in front. In contrast I think he's bad in slide shuffle like is commonly used in Cover 3. So he can do some zones at least. You can't really see him being tested deep in the Oregon game. There's one where he lets up a long catch over the middle, but from positioning it's possible that wasn't his responsibility? Or maybe he did get toasted. We have no way of knowing from that clip. Bad Play: 0:58, he either loses his footing while trying to track the deep ball, or he gets bodied by the WR. Good Play: 1:13, playing way off, starts a backpedal for half a step but reads quickly and reacts on a throw underneath. Bad Play: 1:33, that's not his man, but he's going in on a tackle. He half-asses it assuming his teammate can bring him down, but doesn't, and then he gets brushed aside. Bad Play: 2:06, Cover 3 is not his game. He really struggles figuring out when to turn and run with the WR. He's lucky it's a poor throw. Good Play: 3:57, Press Man and squeezes his guy way to the sideline. Just taking him out of the play. Good Play: 5:51, Press Man, he's physical at the catch and tries to rip the ball out while making the tackle Bad Play 7:24, deep shot, doesn't turn around or attempt a play on the ball when the WR was kind of telegraphing it. Commits DPI. Can't find it, but I remember another clip where he struggled tracking the ball over his head and lost a step on the WR because of it.
  14. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Ha, just wrote up something on him. I think he's scheme dependent. I don't like him in a Cover 3 zone. He seems more like a Cover 2 guy, but generally in Cover 2, you want your corners to operate better against the run. They'll have more responsibilities, and from the tapes I saw (Oregon, USC, and BYU), he was generally disinterested inserting himself into the action. So I'm looking at him as mostly a Man coverage guy. Cover 2 shell with Man Under. That's probably his best spot. He struggles contesting on deep shots. Some of that can be trained, he needs to do a better job with his hands telling him where the WR is while he's looking back at the ball.
  15. Alcoholic Zebra

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Doing a mock now and I see TDN has been slowly dropping Jaylon Johnson from almost a 1st rounder, to late 2nd/early 3rd. NFL.com has him as an early 2nd round though. Watching Jaylon Johnson, and here's what I've got so far. Looks like a natural fit for press-man scheme, he shows ability as an off corner with his hips pointing to the LoS, but he looks flat out awful using slide shuffle technique. I like how he can switch assignments easily against WR stacks or rub routes. Oregon threw those at him constantly. He seems to be either a pure man or pattern match corner. He has too many gaffes in zone. He's a non factor in the run game, and from 3 games that I've watched, does not look good contesting passes in the air down the field. He looks better at that when breaking on passes in front of him. Summary, I wouldn't spend our 3rd rounder on him. I disagree with NFL.com's piece on him. Some of TDN's writers like his ability against the run, I'm assuming there has to be much better film out there for him.