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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


Going Commando

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WEAKNESSES

 Wilson's height will be his biggest inhibitor at the next level and the largest reason for his late-round value. It remains to be seen if he can throw effectively from the pocket at the next level.

 

I think it's time to put the height crap to bed... Murray had less batted balls than all other QB's...

...and hand size holds iittle to zero weight.... Murray's hands (9.4) are bigger than or equal to:

 

Blake Bortles 9.375
CJ Beathard 9.375
Jameis Winston 9.375
Pat Mahomes 9.25
Jimmy Garoppolo 9.25
Teddy Bridgewater 9.25
Sam Darnold 9.25
Derek Carr 9.125
Jared Goff 9
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I just caught an analysis of QBs from Brugler, its a paid account, so I just took a snippet of some of his metrics, starting with how the qbs ranked which is the first graph.  That's not the order of his favorites but  a composite of QBs if you factor a number of metrics, red zone, 20 + passes, under pressure, 3rd in long, 4th quarter within one score and more.

 

 

bruglerqbs.png

bruglerqb2.png

brugerqbs3.png

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14 minutes ago, SemperFi Skins said:

To me, he solidified a top-5 spot in the draft (possibly #1 overall). I think Haskins top-10, heavy defense in between

 

 

Yeah I was thinking the same thing.

 

 

I'm so back and forth about Kyler.  I am definitely intrigued about his ability and a month ago I was out on him.  In major favor of letting someone else give him a shot, because I've got concerns.  Still have some, but they're diminishing a bit.  I don't think his size is the best.  I don't think he can remain >200 lbs over the course of a season.  I'd imagine his playing weight is somewhere around 195.  

 

I'm softening on my concerns though... this kid has a chance to be special.  

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Peter Schrager with a mock, he's typically plugged in.  He has Murray going #1 and he's the first I've seen in a long time with Grier in the first round.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001019166/article/peter-schrager-2019-nfl-mock-draft-10-kyler-murray-goes-no-1

 

PICK

28

LAC.png

Will Grier - QB

 

 

School: West Virginia | Year: Senior (RS) 

Teams seem to be a lot higher on Grier than folks in the mock draft world. Los Angeles could take Grier here, and get him for four years with the fifth-year option in his contract. No one is pushingPhilip Rivers out the door any time soon, but having Grier -- who I believe will see his stock rise the most of any QB at the combine -- waiting in the wings would be wise.

 

 

 
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Would love to scoop Murray without having to mortgage too much of the future. Unlikely he's there at 15 so we'll see what we can do.  If neither he or Haskins are there for us, I'd be ok with selecting Lock, just based on arm talent if Jay wants it. Basically the QB is on Jay in my book. If he doesn't like Lock or Jones in the 1st then I'm also down to pick one later from Stidham, Grier if Jay wants to pull the trigger. Jay has never had his own QB here, so if he feels strongly about someone, I'm all for trying to make it happen for him.

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Only 1 defensive score last year and not a lot of SFOs created by the defense either. Gave up lots of +20 yard TDs but were good at stopping teams from inside our 20 (#9). We sucked again at stopping teams on third down but were good on 4th down stops (#3). We also had loads of issues letting short passes turn into long gains.

 

No TDs by teams and only one or two SFOs.

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20 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I'd say that was nailed on. Murray going #1 to the Cards....unless they dupe some FO into an absurd trade.........

 

Man...this gets interesting... I really thought Murray would come in at 5'9 flat and small hands (Michael Vick-esque ... 8.5). But coming in at 5'10 with 9.5 hands seals it assuming he runs under 4.5.

- Cardinals last year gave up a 3rd and 5th to go from 15 to 10

- Bills gave up two 2nds to go from 12 to 7 for Allen...

- Texans gave up a 2018 1st to go from 25 to 12 for Watson

- Chiefs gave up a 3rd and 2018 1st to go from 27 to 10 for Mahomes.

 

So.... I'd say to get to 5 it would cost us 15, our 2nd, 4th, 2020 1st at minimum.

 

If thats the BEST case for us... We should trade down for a 3rd this year and 2nd next year. Too much talent at DL, WR, TE in the 2-4 rounds to let go by. Take Ta'amu in the 5th

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I figured out Murray's height from analyzing pictures where he stood next to CeeDee Lamb and Baker Mayfield.  That was good work.

 

This kid is like Allen Iverson.  You throw out the conventional wisdom about height with him.  He's going #1 overall.

One more thing, Oklahoma's listings have been accurate for the past several years.  They've proven they can be trusted.

 

Oklahoma State's... not so much.

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@Skinsinparadise I have the same thought as Schrager in terms of Grier - he seems like a good fit for the teams with aging qb stars in the back half of the first.  Brees, Roetblisberger, Rivers, Brady all need to be replaced in the near future, so having a qb like Grier to sit for a year makes sense.  Their teams aren’t likely to pick high in the draft until their qbs retire and/or suffer injury (or fall off a cliff, which doesn’t seem likely), so having a fifth year option gives them more time.  

On the flip side though, if those same teams are trying to make a last run (or two), they’ll want to use that first rounder for another position.  

Next group looking at Grier is probably the Giants, Broncos, Jags (maybe Cincy) that went elsewhere in the first.  

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Also worth pointing out, never, ever, ever listen to anecdotal nonsense like "I met Kyler Murray and I'm 5'9 and he's like maaaaaaybe 5'8" that always gets thrown out there on sports talk radio.  I forget which one, but a producer on one of the major national shows said that about Murray one day.  Might have been Golic and Wingo or LeBatard.  Those guesses are always idiotic.  Most lay people are absolutely terrible at judging measurements.

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Even with all the hype, I'd be really surprised if Murray went in the top 3 picks.  When push comes to shove I think 1. Baseball 2. his Size/injury risk 3. involved Dad will be enough for teams to not to pony up and move into the top 3 to get him.  Just a guess though.  Mark the tape.  A beer on me when I see ya if I'm wrong! Who is up for this bet?

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4 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

I think you are on to something, like the Raiders who have 2 firsts to give.  I just hope AZ trades Rosen to another QB needy team like Miami.  🙂

 

They aren't giving up on Rosen... They'll trade out of #1 pick, get a haul in return, and hopefully still grab the guy of their choice who I believe is Quinnen Williams for AZ.

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26 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

I think you are on to something, like the Raiders who have 2 firsts to give.  I just hope AZ trades Rosen to another QB needy team like Miami.  🙂

Makes the most sense to me. I can Oakland giving up all three of their firsts to move up to 1 and also grab AZ's 2nd rounder. Raiders will need the buzz for Vegas and by the time Murray starts making big money Carr will be off the books somehow.

 

Raiders get 

#1 

#33

 

Az gets

#4

#24

#27

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My sleeper WR pick is Riley Ridley, in that if he was on a different team that prioritized passing more, he'd be a lock for the 1st round.  He moves well, he's got good size, he can high point the ball, he's a hands catcher, he runs a variety of routes well, he's got YAC ability.  The only negative is he's bad at run blocking.

 

As it stands, he's likely available at #46, and some have him outside of their Top 5 WR's.

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1 minute ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

My sleeper WR pick is Riley Ridley, in that if he was on a different team that prioritized passing more, he'd be a lock for the 1st round.  He moves well, he's got good size, he can high point the ball, he's a hands catcher, he runs a variety of routes well, he's got YAC ability.  The only negative is he's bad at run blocking.

 

As it stands, he's likely available at #46, and some have him outside of their Top 5 WR's.

If he is anything like his brother than yes please. 

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57 minutes ago, SemperFi Skins said:

I believe Murray does go #1 overall, and not to the Cardinals...

 

It will take a brave FO to pass on a QB of Murray's nature if the hype is to be believed. Can't see the Cards passing him over. Also, Rosen spat the dummy out when he dropped in the draft, so no way he tolerates sharing a bed with a #1 pick. 

 

They do have a few big decisions to make.

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56 minutes ago, SemperFi Skins said:

 

They aren't giving up on Rosen... They'll trade out of #1 pick, get a haul in return, and hopefully still grab the guy of their choice who I believe is Quinnen Williams for AZ.

 

Yeah to me that's crazy. Why would a team give up on a top 10 QB pick after one season? Yeah, he had an underwhelming rookie season but it wasn't awful by rookie standards. He'd hardly be the first rookie who was thrown to the wolves and threw for a couple more INTs than TDs during his first season. And it's not like he had a good surrounding cast...his OL was absolutely dreadful. Hell, even Ryan Leaf and Heath Shuler got a couple of seasons before getting the boot. 

 

I could maybe understand it if there was an absolute stud generational QB talent in this draft, but there isn't. Murray has some really good skills but he also has some legit question marks. And if they did take Murray, they'd have to figure out what to do with Rosen. I really don't see it happening. 

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