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Redskins receiving corp is beginning to shape up

Burgold

By Burgold
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bobandweave

bobandweave

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I liked Treadwell initially but got swayed by all the metrics that Doctson beat him on and Doctson's hands combined with his size-vertical.  If Doctson doesn't pan out, 2 lessons for me on it.

 

A.  A lot of first round WRs flame out -- seems like a real hit and miss endeavor in the first round

B.  Study a player's personality.  Doctson's personality is so low key and cavalier -- doesn't give off the greatest vibe. 

 

A. I've studied the bust rates by position with first round nfl picks in the past. Drafting WR in the first round produces an extremely high bust rate:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

 

it's not that it "seems" because it is. Fact of the matter for the 2016 NFL drafted WR's the best of the bunch were all 2nd round picks:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:wr

 

it's things like this that always have me more on board with targeting WR's in free agency over targeting them in the draft

 

B. So is Michael Thomas. Don't think personalities have much to do with it personally. Art Monk had a low key personality. I love him. 

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mistertim

mistertim

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Treadwell is not being asked to be the #1 in Minnesota. He has Diggs and Thelin in front of him.

 

We are asking Docston to be our #1.

 

Are we, though? I suppose if you just mean our split end (who tends to be the prototypical #1 WR) then yeah. But I don't think he's a #1 target. With Jay and Alex that seems to be more TEs.

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Morneblade

Morneblade

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Treadwell is not being asked to be the #1 in Minnesota. He has Diggs and Thelin in front of him.

 

We are asking Docston to be our #1.

 

Exactly, and Treadwell is going to far outpace him. And the big reason is the QB. Docston isn't going to come close to the numbers he put up last year. While Treadwell as a #3 is going to have numbers not unlike Doctson did last year. But only as a #3 WR.

 

He's on pace for this:

Targets    Catches    Yds    TD's    Catch %

  84             48          484      4        57.1%

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Are we, though? I suppose if you just mean our split end (who tends to be the prototypical #1 WR) then yeah. But I don't think he's a #1 target. With Jay and Alex that seems to be more TEs.

 

Fixed it for you.

 

Also, what is the plan for when Reed and Thompson get hurt?

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bobandweave

bobandweave

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Are we, though? I suppose if you just mean our split end (who tends to be the prototypical #1 WR) then yeah. But I don't think he's a #1 target. With Jay and Alex that seems to be more TEs.

 

Target leaders so far:

 

1. Chris Thompson - 23 targets

2. Jordan Reed - 20 targets

 

Our receivers come in 3 - 4 - and 5th separated by only 2 targets among them - Richardson 14 targets, Doctson 13 targets, and Crowder 12 targets. 

 

The top receiving options so far have been the RB and TE. It's surprising to see that Crowder has the least amount of targets so far among the group. Either way they have to get the receivers more attempts. 

 

 

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RandyHolt

RandyHolt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Every time I set out to find a waiver WR for my fantasy team (Fuller and Hilton are injured), I inevitably turn towards Crowder, as he always looks poised to have a good game. This week vs. porous NO, with Alex projected as a ~ top 5 QB this week.  I always feel like I can count on him to get lots of targets... but now I see he has less targets than Doc and Richardson. Arg. 

 

I wonder how many 100 yard games our collective big 3 WRs will have this year.  Early Vegas line.... 2.5.

 

I may take the under. They only have 260 yards total through 3 games. That is less than 30 yards per player per game. Now a lot of that has to do with running the ball effectively, but I see other teams have a 100 yd rusher and a WR with more than 30 yards so.... I think its wise to short the Skins WRs until we see otherwise.

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NoCalMike

NoCalMike

Posted
Posted (edited)

Taking a WR on this roster for your fantasy team is basically holding out hope they end up with a TD, because yards-wise, they aren't likely produce much.

 

In fact this offense overall so far is not fantasy friendly.  Maybe Alex Smith can be an emergency #2 QB that can cover for you during your other QB's bye week, but the ball is spread around to so many guys coupled with the fact that no one on this offense seems to have the ability to take over a game.  Reed is probably the closest, but even he will have these games where he gets off to a great start and then disappears and/or vice versa.

 

AP has the ability, but week to week, it is early to rely on him just yet.

Edited by NoCalMike
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bobandweave

bobandweave

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

In fact this offense overall so far is not fantasy friendly.

 

i would take either of the backs on the team for fantasy. AP is ranked 10th for rush yards today after missing a game where the others in front of him haven't. Chris is currently 5th in the league for RB passing targets so makes for a fine PPR play. Both are fantasy worthy imo

 

 

28 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 Maybe Alex Smith can be an emergency #2 QB that can cover for you during your other QB's bye week, but the ball is spread around to so many guys coupled with the fact that no one on this offense seems to have the ability to take over a game.

 

Alex is not worth rostering even in deep leagues imo. When your bye week comes my advice would be to check your waivers and find the QB who is playing against the team giving up the most points you can find and start him. Might have you starting a guy you don't believe in but when the matchup works like that you have a ceiling game of of Mitchell Trubisky yesterday.

 

28 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

Reed is probably the closest, but even he will have these games where he gets off to a great start and then disappears and/or vice versa.

 

Reed has the 6th most targets for TE's so far in the league. He also leads the team in targets, he is also roster worthy imo 

 

47 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I wonder how many 100 yard games our collective big 3 WRs will have this year.  Early Vegas line.... 2.5.

 

I may take the under. They only have 260 yards total through 3 games. That is less than 30 yards per player per game. Now a lot of that has to do with running the ball effectively, but I see other teams have a 100 yd rusher and a WR with more than 30 yards so.... I think its wise to short the Skins WRs until we see otherwise.

 

Too close to call imo 

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OVCChairman

OVCChairman

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

I saw an old 87 jersey today. There were a few candidates that went thru my mind... Brown, Smith, Sprinkle....I whiffed. It turns out it was a fiddy fiddy Gardner. It's a sign, Doctson will have a monster game on Monday - 4 rec 33 yds 1 TD.

 

 

I have 4 Rod Gardner jerseys....

 

 

 

 

 

 

its my last name... :silly:

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RandyHolt

RandyHolt

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

I have 4 Rod Gardner jerseys....

 

its my last name... :silly:

 

You know whats funny is that I was expecting to see another name than that. When I saw it in part G A R D... , at first I thought oh well, its some dudes own customized jersey. And then I saw it in full, and it hit me.... its fiddy fiddy!  Now - if you wore it yesterday, that is another story.

 

Token shout out to Daryl Gardener. One of countless failed moves to bolster up DT (since we always ran bend dont break all were doomed)

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carex

carex

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

I saw an old 87 jersey today. There were a few candidates that went thru my mind... Brown, Smith, Sprinkle....I whiffed. It turns out it was a fiddy fiddy Gardner. It's a sign, Doctson will have a monster game on Monday - 4 rec 33 yds 1 TD.

 

well he did have four catches last time they played the Saints for 81 yards

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RandyHolt

RandyHolt

Posted
Posted (edited)

As a defensive coordinator, I wonder if there is a standard playbook on how to take out WRs with Alex Smith at QB.  Maybe never use your top corner on an outside WR... or maybe cover 2.... I dunno I am just typing out loud. I imagine some specific D works best for a QB that barely targets his wideouts.

 

I wish there was an easy way to know what defenses we are facing, % of time, effectiveness etc. Football lacks proper analytics, at least compared to other sports.

Edited by RandyHolt
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OVCChairman

OVCChairman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

As a defensive coordinator, I wonder if there is a standard playbook on how to take out WRs with Alex Smith at QB.  Maybe never use your top corner on an outside WR... or maybe cover 2.... I dunno I am just typing out loud. I imagine some specific D works best for a QB that barely targets his wideouts.

 

I wish there was an easy way to know what defenses we are facing, % of time, effectiveness etc. Football lacks proper analytics, at least compared to other sports.

 

 

Problem with analytics in Football vs the other major sports, there's never really a player vs player matchup.  It's the 'ultimate team sport' for a reason.  You can look at catch rates and %, but there are so many variables that change that matchup itself.  In baseball, it's Pitcher vs Hitter.  Fielder vs Ball.  In Football, you can look at Doctson, and he may see 60 different defenders over the course of a season.  Add to that the variable of 3rd down and 10 vs 3rd down and 3.  Plus the effectiveness of the weather, matched with how the offense is working that day.  How good the throw was, what was the safety doing on that play.  Was he the 1st read or 3rd read.  Was the QB pressured?  

 

I'd imagine there is a template to play against every QB in the league.  Some are scheme, some are mentality.  What I mean by that is a scheme could be, on 3rd and long we run a cover 2, man on the outside with specific personnel.. The 'mentality' is "we're not gonna let Rodgers beat us outside of the pocket, and you playcall from there.  As far as Alex, I think Defenses are comfortable winning matchups outside because of the talent we have.  They KNOW Alex is going to look inside, yet were still effective with it... That's why I personally think it's a talent issue more than it's an Alex Smith / Jay Gruden issue.  If Alex was just inclined to forget about the WRs and live off the TEs and RBs... then why aren't defenses forcing him to beat us different ways?  Why are we still able to have CT be the leading receiver?   Why is J.Reed still effective?  I get that we can have good matchups, but if they TRULY thought that was our offensive mentality, they'd be taking it away from us.  

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RandyHolt

RandyHolt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Great post Ovi ;)  (t'is hockey season, you know)


My beef with a lack of analytics stems from not even being able to locate simple stuff - like QB under pressure stats. The same ones Fox rolled out 20 years ago. Hit hurried knocked down sacked batted balls etc.   I'd be happy with the big picture simple stuff. The Skins run cover 2 80% of the time, the rest of the league, 50%. We blitz 9% of the time, the playoff teams last year blitzed 90% of the time. 

Edited by RandyHolt
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OVCChairman

OVCChairman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Great post Ovi ;)  (t'is hockey season, you know)


My beef with a lack of analytics stems from not even being able to locate simple stuff - like QB under pressure stats. The same ones Fox rolled out 20 years ago. Hit hurried knocked down sacked batted balls etc.   I am happy with the big picture simple stuff. The Skins run cover 2 80% of the time, the rest of the league, 50%. We blitz 9% of the time, the playoff teams last year blitzed 90% of the time. 

 

 

Yes sir it is...

 

:great8:

 

not long before the banner drops!

2 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Shape up? Maybe more like ship out.

 

No Josh Doctson at Practice today, per JP Finley

 

All Hail Mo Harris, or Floyd?

 

giphy.gif

 

 

I actually wouldn't mind seeing if Floyd can bring anything.  He's a prototypical no. 1 type who has experience.  He's not what he once was, but he's better than what we have.   Even if it just gives you a taste of what a true no.1 talent type player can give you.  

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