Redskins receiving corp is beginning to shape up

[Vanguard]

I don’t know if this has been posted.  I had a hard time even paying attention to the journalists questions during the interview til later.  If you watch you’ll understand.

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

What would be a reasonable statistical projection and then an optimistic statistical projection for what we can expect out Steven Sims this year? 
 

I don’t know if Jamison Crowder is a realistic ceiling, or if we could expect more? I think Sims looks more explosive than Crowder. 
 

We probably don’t have the OL production or a QB experienced enough in the system to see Sims’ ceiling this year though. 

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

27 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

What would be a reasonable statistical projection and then an optimistic statistical projection for what we can expect out Steven Sims this year? 
 

I don’t know if Jamison Crowder is a realistic ceiling, or if we could expect more? I think Sims looks more explosive than Crowder. 
 

We probably don’t have the OL production or a QB experienced enough in the system to see Sims’ ceiling this year though. 

 

67 rec  741 yds  5 tds

 

75 rec  937 yds  8 tds

 

My projection formula is proprietary so unfortunately I can't share it with you.  

 

[Anselmheifer]

I’d say your first projection looks like my optimistic projection. 
 

Still, if McLaurin becomes an 1,100 yard guy and 67 receptions and 750 yards out of Sims, our offense could be a lot better than people project.

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

36 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I’d say your first projection looks like my optimistic projection. 
 

 

It's about 4 rec per game at 11 yds per rec.  If he is the starting slot for 16 games and doesn't get to around those numbers...I would consider it a disappointment. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by GhostofAlvinWalton

[JoeJacobyHOForRIOT]

Its pretty exciting how young we have gotten at WR and how quickly its happened

[Anselmheifer]

20 hours ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

 

It's about 4 rec per game at 11 yds per rec.  If he is the starting slot for 16 games and doesn't get to around those numbers...I would consider it a disappointment. 

When you break it down as a per game average it doesn’t sound crazy. But, it’s basically the same output that got Jamison Crowder paid. And our OL is potentially bad, Haskins has no experience in the system and there aren’t a lot of other weapons to act defenses. I hope you’re right. 

[LittleTinyUnbornBaby]

On 6/3/2020 at 2:17 PM, Anselmheifer said:

What would be a reasonable statistical projection and then an optimistic statistical projection for what we can expect out Steven Sims this year? 
 

I don’t know if Jamison Crowder is a realistic ceiling, or if we could expect more? I think Sims looks more explosive than Crowder. 
 

We probably don’t have the OL production or a QB experienced enough in the system to see Sims’ ceiling this year though. 

 

If Sims can put out 50+ receptions, 600+ yards and 3-4 TDs with the receivers that we have added during the draft coming in, with a very similar talent coming to the team such as Antonio Gibson who can play the same role of that flex RB/WR that Sims down. I would be very excited for him and would call that my optimistic projection.

 

With the emergence of Terry this past season and the very high expectations that he has, along with the probable, IMO, of Thaddeus Moss as that safety net TE, I would expect Sims to have 40 receptions 350ish yards and 1 TD.

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

3 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

When you break it down as a per game average it doesn’t sound crazy. But, it’s basically the same output that got Jamison Crowder paid. And our OL is potentially bad, Haskins has no experience in the system and there aren’t a lot of other weapons to act defenses. I hope you’re right. 

 

Those averages are the same as he put up the last 5 games of the year (once he was the starting slot). Haskins was the QB for most of those, the OL was bad, and there weren't a lot of other weapons to attract defenses. Seems like a similar situation...

 

[Koolblue13]

4 hours ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

 

Those averages are the same as he put up the last 5 games of the year (once he was the starting slot). Haskins was the QB for most of those, the OL was bad, and there weren't a lot of other weapons to attract defenses. Seems like a similar situation...

 

I think they look good. I expect our offense to get a free pass of sorts for a while too, since there is only a few weeks of tape on a Turner offense and play calling. And that was with Allen throwing the ball,with no offseason of studying, so I expect Haskins to really go kind of unchallenged for a while. Should buy some wins too.

[kingdaddy]

On 6/4/2020 at 4:02 PM, LittleTinyUnbornBaby said:

 

If Sims can put out 50+ receptions, 600+ yards and 3-4 TDs with the receivers that we have added during the draft coming in, with a very similar talent coming to the team such as Antonio Gibson who can play the same role of that flex RB/WR that Sims down. I would be very excited for him and would call that my optimistic projection.

 

With the emergence of Terry this past season and the very high expectations that he has, along with the probable, IMO, of Thaddeus Moss as that safety net TE, I would expect Sims to have 40 receptions 350ish yards and 1 TD.

If Steve Sims is the starting slot receiver expect 60 or more catches if he stays healthy because he's a guy that the coaches are gonna scheme plays for....that's totally just my opinion but he has game breaking speed and over a 16 game season should average at least 4 catches a game. 

[Burgold]

Steve Sims, if he can figure out his hands, has a chance to be a star in my opinion. He had so many huge plays as an undrafted super-raw free agent rookie wide receiver. We talk about Haskins' growth curve in a handful of games, but Simms growth curve over 16 was mind blowing.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Burgold

[TheShredder]

14 hours ago, Burgold said:

Steve Sims, if he can figure out his hands

Confusing hands.

or did you imply this...

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by TheShredder

[HTTRDynasty]

He meant Boldin*. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[HTTRDynasty]

USING COMPARABLE PLAYERS TO PROJECT

Taking the analysis one step further, I matched the features above (routes per game, targets per route, yards per route, touchdowns per route, deep of target, and yards per reception) for each rookie receiver to every rookie in the 2007-2018 window to find his closest comparable players.

 

In the table below, I highlight the closest and second-closest statistical comps and the mean, 90th percentile and 10th percentile numbers for the PFF Plus/Minus the receivers’ top-five comps average over their second to fourth seasons. In other words, the per-year average for Plus/Minus over the three seasons following the rookie year.

Receiver	Closest Comp	2nd Closest	Rookie PFF +/-	Mean Proj	90th Perc	10th Perc
A.J. Brown	Hakeem Nicks	JuJu Smith-Schuster	1.97	1.42	2.43	0.55
Terry McLaurin	A.J. Green	Julio Jones	1.15	1.49	2.32	0.7
Hunter Renfrow	Doug Baldwin	Cooper Kupp	1.02	1.02	1.96	-0.09
Darius Slayton	T.Y. Hilton	Mike Williams	0.71	1.11	2.38	-0.05
D.K. Metcalf	Josh Gordon	Sammy Watkins	0.61	1.09	2.28	0
Marquise Brown	Calvin Ridley	Sidney Rice	0.58	0.81	1.65	-0.1
Deebo Samuel	D.J. Moore	Stefon Diggs	0.51	0.59	1.23	-0.13
Mecole Hardman	Dante Pettis	Tre'Quan Smith	0.48	0.21	1.47	-0.76
Preston Williams	Dwayne Bowe	Jeremy Maclin	0.42	0.23	1.15	-1.57
Diontae Johnson	Johnny Knox	Christian Kirk	0.10	0.16	1.08	-0.81
Steven Sims	Cordarrelle Patterson	Dane Sanzenbacher	-0.31	0.13	1.71	-1.47
Olabisi Johnson	David Nelson	Craig Davis	-1.65	-1.22	-0.4	-2.05
Jakobi Meyers	Harry Douglas	Kendrick Bourne	-1.76	-1.52	-0.84	-2.11
KeeSean Johnson	Justin Hardy	DaeSean Hamilton	-1.87	-1.85	-1.62	-2.1
Kelvin Harmon	Ricardo Louis	Chris Conley	-2.03	-1.42	-0.04	-2.48
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	James Washington	Devin Smith	-2.82	-1.56	-0.53	-2.54

The most comparable players aren’t necessarily perfect matches stylistically, but they are the strongest statistical matches. Another point of context is that these comps were not matched using draft position, which would boost players like Arcega-Whiteside who struggled and rookies and hurt later-round selections like Renfrow and Slayton.

 

The fact that A.J. Brown’s mean Plus/Minus going forward is lower than his rookie season’s shows how difficult it was for his excellent comps to maintain that strong of performance. McLaurin ends up with a higher mean projection with comps like A.J. Green and Julio Jones.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-plus-minus-rookie-wr-seasons-2019

[carex]

well hopefully from here on Harmon is more like Conley than Louis

[kingdaddy]

On 6/6/2020 at 9:40 AM, Burgold said:

Steve Sims, if he can figure out his hands, has a chance to be a star in my opinion. He had so many huge plays as an undrafted super-raw free agent rookie wide receiver. We talk about Haskins' growth curve in a handful of games, but Simms growth curve over 16 was mind blowing.

I agree, he is Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown slippery....just imagine if Simms and AGG both turn out to be good to great NFL receivers...we're talking about The Posse ll. Harmon has upside too. Coaches gotta coach em up and DH has to get em the ball.

[Bonez3]

McLovin man... I hope Haskins develops into a stud

[HTTRDynasty]

I really hope we don't sign him, but this is a step in that direction if Rivera's really thinking about it.

 

 

[Vanguard]

On 6/12/2020 at 3:16 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

I really hope we don't sign him, but this is a step in that direction if Rivera's really thinking about it.

 

 

Looks like the tweets been taken down.

[Malapropismic Depository]

I'd take a problematic AB in an abbreviated season 😉

[Mr. Sinister]

23 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I'd take a problematic AB in an abbreviated season 😉

 

Man at this point I wouldn't trust that guy in a canned food drive Flag football game

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Man at this point I wouldn't trust that guy in a canned food drive Flag football game

 

Trust him to do what?

 

Vets min + incentives, give him the Patriots treatment and strike him from existence if he doesn't listen and do it fast.

 

AB is one of those guys that I don't think is going to get the help he needs if he's not in a team.  So if we don't want to help save his career and life, have to pass.

 

I'm fine with it because I know he needs help and would be easy to get rid of him if he refuses to take it. Low risk, high reward.

[Mr. Sinister]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Trust him to do what?

 

Anything. I'm not sure about him not being right unless he is with a football team, evidenced by all of his issues while he's been on football teams. I also do not trust to him to respect his teammates,  or his QB who is basically a kid.

 

Nope. Not here. Not for a can of spam and some paper clips. Our team being dragged through the mud (again) and our new, respected coaches authority/character under fire (again) is not worth the few weeks he'd spend him catching TD's (maybe) before he lost it again.