Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[ncr2h]

58 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

In addition, Cousins would give us this on average per year:

 

TDs = 6.6 more per year

INT = 5.3 more INTs per year

Fumbles = 6 more fumbles per year

 

Im sure some will disagree with me, but while we are on average losing 6.6 TDs, to me that is balanced out by 5.3 fewer interceptions and 6 fewer fumbles. At least not a big enough difference to make me pine after Cousins. Our defense had one of the worst, if not the worst, starting field position in the league. This was caused by issues on ST and all of the turnovers, so improving the turnovers will also help our defense out a lot.

 

QBs shouldn't be evaluated "per year". They should be evaluated "per play".

 

As you mentioned, Smith has been sacked 108 times over the past 3 years, and Cousins only 90. However, Smith only dropped back to pass 1,572 times over the past 3 seasons, whereas Cousins dropped back to pass 1,779 times. Smith was sacked on 6.9% of his dropbacks, compared to Cousins' 5.1%. Comparing apples-to-apples, if Smith's coach had dialed up as many passing plays for Smith as Gruden did for Cousins, Smith would have been sacked 122 times. That's essentially 1 season's worth of additional sacks.

 

Additionally, I would put a big asterisk on this comparison because Cousins' 2017 campaign may have been an aberration from his typical play. He was getting a lot of flak from coaches and the media for not extending plays. Therefore, he mentioned several times that he was making a conscious effort to hold the ball longer in order to wait for things to open up. Add to that the league-leading number of offensive line combinations he had to deal with, as well as significant injuries to his #1 WR, #1 TE, and #1 RB, and it might lead you to believe that 2017 might not represent a normal year of sack-taking from Cousins. Every other year of his career, he posted a sack rate under 4.8% (most years under 4%). Conversely, Smith's last year may be an aberration for many of the reasons mentioned in this thread. His sack rate last year was 6.5%. His career sack rate is 7.8%.

 

Overall, your analysis is missing an incredibly vital stat when it comes to evaluating QBs - pass attempts. Instead of looking at total yards, total sacks, total INTs, etc. you should be looking at them on a per-dropback basis. Over the course of their careers, Smith has shown himself to be a pretty inefficient QB (5.94 net yards per pass attempt; 5.8 adjusted net yards per pass attempt) compared to Cousins (6.98 net yards per pass attempt; 6.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt). Adjusted net yards per attempt is an all-encompassing QB stat (other than fumbles) that uses statistical studies to value-weight yards, TDs, INTs, and sacks, which is what you're trying to do in your back-of-the-envelope analysis. Essentially - Smith throws fewer ints per dropback, but the difference isn't enough to offset the huge gap created by Cousins throwing further down the field, taking fewer sacks, and throwing more TDs.

 

Essentially, on average Cousins gives you an additional ~15% of value (1 yard per attempt) per play compared to Smith. In fact, it is likely more than that because if Smith were asked to throw the ball as often as Cousins has to, he would become less efficient (and vice versa for Cousins). Cousins' and Smith's coaches have subconsciously validated this conclusion - throughout his career, when Cousins coaches have put him in the game, they have chosen to drive the offense through the strength of Cousins passing ability (see pass/run ratio with Cousins in the game vs. RG3). Conversely, when Smith is in the game his coaches have chosen to find other means of moving the offense, as Smith's 5.8 ANY/A isn't all that much better than what those coaches have been able to get out of their running game.

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

Did I say anything about agreeing with his assertion? I haven't seen enough of Smith to say anything definitive one way or another. Excellent reading comprehension.

 

I know. You tired to paint that Cousins was terrible, and then made it look like Smith was a stand up guy for pointing out he had a bad night. Your passive aggressive trolling is obvious.

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

We weren't too shabby in run defense prior to Allen and Ionaidis' injuries. And Zach Brown. And Mason Foster. Why is that just glossed over? Also, last year isn't this year, otherwise the league wouldn't turn over more than half of the playoff teams on a year to year basis. Now we are adding Payne and Settle. So no, if anything I'm projecting. I didn't just forget about the run. But couple our pass rush with a presumably healthier and improved run defense with Payne added to the mix is exciting. Good vs Great is subjective and has nothing to do with anything I'm saying, so again, hats off on the reading comprehension. It's excellent.

 

It wasn't. I'm well aware of the injuries. But you did forget about the run. You made no mention of the run, they only stats you brought up were passing, so in that light, that was the only thing that mattered. Reading comprehension and all that. And yeah, you're projecting, and that's fine

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

 

Dude I've commented a few times now about how plugged in SIP is to Redskins football. I recognize that and have said it. Oh right, reading comprehension. I'm not attacking or coming at anybody. What are you, his body guard?

 

No, I just see you for what you are.

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

But yeah, when you are that knowledgable you can talk to different takes. Why is it so offensive to ask the difference between his own opinion i.e "let's wait and see" versus "advances stats prove this." There's literally nothing wrong with either take. But I'm not alone on an island with thinking this front seven has the makings to be more than good. Just reference that thread. So wondering why he was talking definitively about Smith versus being more measured on the front 7. The answer could simply be "I don't agree with the advanced stats regarding pressure and don't believe more health and adding Payne will be enough of a boost to be a difference in the run game. But I've watched Smith enough to agree that the guy can't stretch the field. Hence football outsiders take." That would spur football discussion, instead of the "why you coming at me man, what the heck" attitude and his personal cult coming to save the day.

 

Because it's been gone over, and you STILL ask the same questions, apparently looking for a difference response. Well, if you don't have anything to add, that's not going to change.

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

I had assumed since you post on here that you read the front seven thread. There's been a lot of good stuff posted in there backing up my take. Like I said, I'm not as plugged in so I rely on others posting here to back up my claims. Didn't realize that makes my arguments inferior or that I need to go out on my own to substantiate my beliefs. Or re post everything in the front seven thread to back up my belief.

 

If you want to have a strong debate, yeah, you need to do that. Just shooting off at the mouth doesn't do anything.

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

I am trying to show him I'm right lol. I just don't expect or want him to change his view. It's called debate, apparently some can't handle that concept.

 

Read that out loud, slowly. Does that make any sense at all?

 

You debate someone, to show them you are right, right? And to do that, you're go to come with something stronger than "what I think". Or you're just trolling.

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

You're too much. Never change 

 

 

Sorry you can't handle it.

[Morneblade]

21 minutes ago, ncr2h said:

 

QBs shouldn't be evaluated "per year". They should be evaluated "per play".

 

As you mentioned, Smith has been sacked 108 times over the past 3 years, and Cousins only 90. However, Smith only dropped back to pass 1,572 times over the past 3 seasons, whereas Cousins dropped back to pass 1,779 times. Smith was sacked on 6.9% of his dropbacks, compared to Cousins' 5.1%. Comparing apples-to-apples, if Smith's coach had dialed up as many passing plays for Smith as Gruden did for Cousins, Smith would have been sacked 122 times. That's essentially 1 season's worth of additional sacks.

 

Additionally, I would put a big asterisk on this comparison because Cousins' 2017 campaign may have been an aberration from his typical play. He was getting a lot of flak from coaches and the media for not extending plays. Therefore, he mentioned several times that he was making a conscious effort to hold the ball longer in order to wait for things to open up. Add to that the league-leading number of offensive line combinations he had to deal with, as well as significant injuries to his #1 WR, #1 TE, and #1 RB, and it might lead you to believe that 2017 might not represent a normal year of sack-taking from Cousins. Every other year of his career, he posted a sack rate under 4.8% (most years under 4%). Conversely, Smith's last year may be an aberration for many of the reasons mentioned in this thread. His sack rate last year was 6.5%. His career sack rate is 7.8%.

 

Overall, your analysis is missing an incredibly vital stat when it comes to evaluating QBs - pass attempts. Instead of looking at total yards, total sacks, total INTs, etc. you should be looking at them on a per-dropback basis. Over the course of their careers, Smith has shown himself to be a pretty inefficient QB (5.94 net yards per pass attempt; 5.8 adjusted net yards per pass attempt) compared to Cousins (6.98 net yards per pass attempt; 6.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt). Adjusted net yards per attempt is an all-encompassing QB stat (other than fumbles) that uses statistical studies to value-weight yards, TDs, INTs, and sacks, which is what you're trying to do in your back-of-the-envelope analysis. Essentially - Smith throws fewer ints per dropback, but the difference isn't enough to offset the huge gap created by Cousins throwing further down the field, taking fewer sacks, and throwing more TDs.

 

Essentially, on average Cousins gives you an additional ~15% of value (1 yard per attempt) per play compared to Smith. In fact, it is likely more than that because if Smith were asked to throw the ball as often as Cousins has to, he would become less efficient (and vice versa for Cousins). Cousins' and Smith's coaches have subconsciously validated this conclusion - throughout his career, when Cousins coaches have put him in the game, they have chosen to drive the offense through the strength of Cousins passing ability (see pass/run ratio with Cousins in the game vs. RG3). Conversely, when Smith is in the game his coaches have chosen to find other means of moving the offense, as Smith's 5.8 ANY/A isn't all that much better than what those coaches have been able to get out of their running game.

 

 

All of this.

 

And I'll add, since this has been brought up, if Smith was really elite, why wouldn't a ex QB (Harbaugh) run his offense through him? Or bench him for another QB? And, if you have a QB friendly HC like Reid that is pass happy, why wouldn't he run his system through Smith?

 

Maybe it's because they saw limitations, and worked around them.

 

Oh, let's not forget the last time Reid gave us a QB, and how well that worked out.

 

Or that the Chiefs traded up to get Mahomes.

 

[Sandy Monk]

You are all wonderful people. HTTR

[bobandweave]

3 hours ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Over the last 3 years Smith has been sacked 108 times for 584 yards at 5.4 yards per sack.

 

Cousins has been sacked 90 times for 718 yards at 7.9 yards per sack.

 

So with Smith we are basically getting 1 and a half sacks more every 4 games than with Cousins, but the offense still has less yards to recover from over the course of a game and year. Both with sacks and fumbles.

 

The biggest advantage Cousins has is he will probably throw more TDs than Smith, but I'm hoping that part of that is Grudens offense. I would be happy with mid 20s TDs as long as we have a running game.

 

 

 

Over the past three years Alex Smith rushed for 987 yards. Over the past three years Kirk rushed for 109 yards.

 

Advantage Alex.

 

If you take away the lost yards for getting sacked from the positive rushing yards Alex Smith produced over the past three years he is a plus 403 yards where as Kirk is a negative 609 yards.

 

403 vs -609

 

And the QB with the negative yards turns the ball over more.

 

This is one of the reasons I think Alex is going to be better for the team then Kirk. Alex may not be a gun slinger but he is smart with the ball and produces more positive yards for his team 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Sure, that's possible, but I also don't know enough about the Chiefs line over the last 3 years to modify the stats. Chiefs line could have been great when he was sacked 45 times, or it could have been crap, so I didn't take that into account for either QB. Definitely many factors that could go into the number of sacks for both QBs.

Yeah, I suppose there’s no telling.  Looking back to the past 5 years, and extrapolating for games missed (rounding the totals) - he missed 1 game each year except for 2016 - he was sacked 46, 48, 45, 30, and 37 times.  So not nearly as rosy as looking at the past 3.  The good news is that he (and the team) trended down over that span.  

Oddly enough, the year with the lowest sack total (2016), was the only time KC was ranked outside of the top 10 in rushing (15th).  So maybe if our ground game sucks, Alex will take fewer sacks, lol.  

Also kind of interesting - Smith’s top 2 passing yardage totals - (came the last two years (corresponding with those lower sack totals).  

 

 

[bobandweave]

13 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

You'd be surprised.

 

We have a bunch of people that couldn't stand Cousins, and will love Smith, just because it's not Cousins.

 

And we have lots of people that pine after Cousins and won’t give Alex much chance because they are still pissed Cousins is gone.

 

At least with the pro Alex crowd they are rooting for the success of the Redskins team whereas the Cousins supporters are only talking about events that they neither control or matter anymore.

 

Like others have said for them my loyalty is towards the team not the player, that’s the point of this thread imo. Letting the past go while being hopeful and supportive of the present. Doesn’t matter to me the Redskins may or may not have made mistakes. It’s 2018 not 2016 and the season starts in two weeks. Time to get behind Alex and I know your supportive of Alex not saying your not but it’s clear not everyone feels that way: Imo HTTR

 

 

 

[skinny21]

7 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

Alex may not be a gun slinger but he is smart with the ball and produces more positive yards for his team 

Add in passing yards though, and Kirk is ahead by 850-ish yards over the past 3 years.  Looks a whole lot worse when you throw out the two biggest anomalies (Kirk’s surprising number of sacks taken in 2017, and Smith’s surprising passing totals for  2017).  

 

 

[bobandweave]

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

All of this.

 

And I'll add, since this has been brought up, if Smith was really elite, why wouldn't a ex QB (Harbaugh) run his offense through him? Or bench him for another QB? And, if you have a QB friendly HC like Reid that is pass happy, why wouldn't he run his system through Smith?

 

Because Alex got hurt and a younger cheaper QB named Colin Kapernick looked great when given his chance. So the team traded away Alex and got behind CK who after all these years is out of the league and if not for Jimmy G, they were wrong to do that. Not to mention that coach is also out of the league today

 

 

Quote

 

Oh, let's not forget the last time Reid gave us a QB, and how well that worked out.

 

2010 means nothing in 2018

 

Quote

 

Or that the Chiefs traded up to get Mahomes.

 

 

Because they had massive cap issues and was an easy way for them to get out of those issues by going with the cheaper option. And let’s not get too crazy anointing Pat as better then Alex until he shows it. So far he hasn’t 

[Spaceman Spiff]

6 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

And we have lots of people that pine after Cousins and won’t give Alex much chance because they are still pissed Cousins is gone.

 

At least with the pro Alex crowd they are rooting for the success of the Redskins team whereas the Cousins supporters are only talking about events that they neither control or matter anymore.

 

Like others have said for them my loyalty is towards the team not the player, that’s the point of this thread imo. Letting the past go while being hopeful and supportive of the present. Doesn’t matter to me the Redskins may or may not have made mistakes. It’s 2018 not 2016 and the season starts in two weeks. Time to get behind Kirk and I know your supportive of Alex not saying your not but it’s clear not everyone feels that way: Imo HTTR

 

 

 

 

I've said it before, I'll say it again here.  The Redskins have been in a perpetual QB controversy since...Rypien,  Maybe even before then.  Hell, going back to "I like Billy/I like Sonny."  Schroeder vs. Williams.  

 

This is what we do.  Debate quarterbacks all day, every day.  It is perpetual instability.  

 

That doesn't stop because we have (or had) a good one.  I don't think Redskins fans will ever be 100% happy with the QB situation because they don't know how to be.

[bobandweave]

11 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Add in passing yards though, and Kirk is ahead by 850-ish yards over the past 3 years.  Looks a whole lot worse when you throw out the two biggest anomalies (Kirk’s surprising number of sacks taken in 2017, and Smith’s surprising passing totals for  2017).  

 

 

 

There is nothing more team limiting then turnovers. There isn’t a way of figuring out how many yards they lost due to them so that’s not important. Yards don’t matter they are just a number. The fact one guys much more likely to turn it over then the other one negates if a guy might have a few more yards 300 less per season if he’s gonna turn it over to me

 

I would personally rather have say a RB who was guarneteed to get the team four yards a rush with no ability to rush for a 35 yard gain versus a RB who could get you that 35 yard gain but not able to get you four yards when you need it. It’s a taste thing. To me more rushing yards, less turnovers, more stable offense is better for team wins then inconsistency and it shows with these two. One guys who everywhere he went and gets his team to the playoffs the other guys still is searching for a single playoff win and gets you to 8-8. Imo

 

 

8 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

I've said it before, I'll say it again here.  The Redskins have been in a perpetual QB controversy since...Rypien,  Maybe even before then.  Hell, going back to "I like Billy/I like Sonny."  Schroeder vs. Williams.  

 

This is what we do.  Debate quarterbacks all day, every day.  It is perpetual instability.  

 

That doesn't stop because we have (or had) a good one.  I don't think Redskins fans will ever be 100% happy with the QB situation because they don't know how to be.

 

Completely agree 

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, Sandy Monk said:

You are all wonderful people. HTTR

 

We are all EXTREME-ly wonderful people. Thank you very much.

[HardcoreZorn]

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

I know. You tired to paint that Cousins was terrible, and then made it look like Smith was a stand up guy for pointing out he had a bad night. Your passive aggressive trolling is obvious.

Where? Or are you mixing me up AGAIN with somebody. Come on dude.

 

Rest of your post isn't worthy of a response after that. Like I said, never change.

 

@Skinsinparadise tapping out. I don't know how to explain in any other words that I wasn't engaging in good vs great debate. 

 

@ all other posters. Make sure to bring your A game to the debate floor or you will be dismissed as a troll and boring. What a wonderful culture around here.

 

[The Hangman- C_Hanburger]

14 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

There is nothing more team limiting then turnovers. There isn’t a way of figuring out how many yards they lost due to them so that’s not important. Yards don’t matter they are just a number. The fact one guys much more likely to turn it over then the other one negates if a guy might have a few more yards 300 less per season if he’s gonna turn it over to me

 

Completely agree 

YA..subtract the turnover points in the RZ from the total...and again for the other team going the other way. Stats can be used to tell any story. I like Alex because he is HERE with us...I could careless about Cousins and what he does going forward. Water under the bridge ,the deal wasn't made.

 

I know in 2018 I won't be cringing inside the red zone (at least to start the season) If Alex fails..we get good draft position

 

Had the FO listen to me at the 2016 Draft..they would have traded Cousins for a High DP...pretty much had a "slightly worse" season and had better PICKS in the last draft and would have gotten one of the rookie studs we are seeing this preseason. BUT Nooooo, we franchised KC again...

 

So you see..either way..we WIN with Alex. Glass half full

 

 

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

Over the past three years Alex Smith rushed for 987 yards. Over the past three years Kirk rushed for 109 yards.

 

Advantage Alex.

 

Kirk had 197 yards last year alone. I'm not sure where you're getting your stats from, but they are not correct.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CousKi00.htm

 

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

If you take away the lost yards for getting sacked from the positive rushing yards Alex Smith produced over the past three years he is a plus 403 yards where as Kirk is a negative 609 yards.

 

403 vs -609

 

And the QB with the negative yards turns the ball over more.

 

This is one of the reasons I think Alex is going to be better for the team then Kirk. Alex may not be a gun slinger but he is smart with the ball and produces more positive yards for his team 

 

I agree. Smith is the more athletic of the 2. And I have said so more than once. But the D has to be really stout for this to really work.

 

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

And we have lots of people that pine after Cousins and won’t give Alex much chance because they are still pissed Cousins is gone.

 

At least with the pro Alex crowd they are rooting for the success of the Redskins team whereas the Cousins supporters are only talking about events that they neither control or matter anymore.

 

Like others have said for them my loyalty is towards the team not the player, that’s the point of this thread imo. Letting the past go while being hopeful and supportive of the present. Doesn’t matter to me the Redskins may or may not have made mistakes. It’s 2018 not 2016 and the season starts in two weeks. Time to get behind Alex and I know your supportive of Alex not saying your not but it’s clear not everyone feels that way: Imo HTTR

 

 

 

 

I think people are supportive of Alex, as much as you're going to see on a typical sports message board. He looks bad, people are going to say how bad he was. I was in there defending Alex (Yes, ME) because people were over-reacting, and blaming Gruden for not getting him reps. Which, is pretty typical, about any sport, anywhere. When he has a game where he goes 22-27 for 303 and 3 TDs, everyone is going to love him for that game. I think most everyone supports him, and wants to seem him succeed, because if he does, the team wins. And we all want that. Part of is is that there is a gushing for Smith others don't see, and carry over from people that could not stand Cousins. I think what a lot of this conversation goes back to is the F.O. Do they suck or are they finally getting their stuff together. So, I think it's more than Cousins vs. Smith. I am glad you do understand I like Smith, just not as much as some others do. I hope he has a great year.

 

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

Because Alex got hurt and a younger cheaper QB named Colin Kapernick looked great when given his chance. So the team traded away Alex and got behind CK who after all these years is out of the league and if not for Jimmy G, they were wrong to do that. Not to mention that coach is also out of the league today

 

 

 

2010 means nothing in 2018

 

 

Because they had massive cap issues and was an easy way for them to get out of those issues by going with the cheaper option. And let’s not get too crazy anointing Pat as better then Alex until he shows it. So far he hasn’t 

 

Some of these things don't really count. Fact of the matter 2 pretty good coaches didn't think Alex is the key component to their offense. Now, you can talk about Kap not being in the league, and why (which likely has nothing to do with how good or bad a QB he is) and other things, but the fact still is that 2 HC's say Smith as a piece, but not what you build around. As for Cap stuff, You'll see star players take pay cuts pretty consistently if it makes the team better. And I think if asked, Smith would have likely done so.

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

Where? Or are you mixing me up AGAIN with somebody. Come on dude.

 

Rest of your post isn't worthy of a response after that. Like I said, never change.

 

Nah, not this time. And don't worry, I'll keep pounding you when you're wrong.

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

@Skinsinparadise tapping out. I don't know how to explain in any other words that I wasn't engaging in good vs great debate. 

 

@ all other posters. Make sure to bring your A game to the debate floor or you will be dismissed as a troll and boring. What a wonderful culture around here.

 

 

Welcome to the Big City, as my mom used to say.

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

There is nothing more team limiting then turnovers. There isn’t a way of figuring out how many yards they lost due to them so that’s not important. Yards don’t matter they are just a number. The fact one guys much more likely to turn it over then the other one negates if a guy might have a few more yards 300 less per season if he’s gonna turn it over to me

 

That’s fine.  That wasn’t the factor you used in your previous post though.  

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

 

 

@Skinsinparadise tapping out. I don't know how to explain in any other words that I wasn't engaging in good vs great debate. 

Yeah, I think your point was missed a bit.  Answering your question “why can you (SIP) use FO, yet have trouble with me (HZ) using PFF?”, from my perspective it’s a few things.  

1.  FO, along with multiple other sources, doesn’t see Alex as much of a risk taker.  On top of that, SIP has said more than once, if Alex is super careful with the ball, but can also be risky with the ball and yet maintain such a low INT%, he must be elite.  Right or wrong, SIP gives his reasons.  

2. PFF talked only about the pass rush, and no other sources were used.  

In short, it’s not quite apples to apples.  

 

I’ll also point out that SIP pointed out the problem with using that PFF metric to argue for this being a great front 7.  I don’t recall you explaining the problem with his use of FO.

 

 

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

 

@ all other posters. Make sure to bring your A game to the debate floor or you will be dismissed as a troll and boring. What a wonderful culture around here.

 

Eh, I didn’t think anyone really thinks you’re trolling, and I know no one called you boring.  I generally like reading your posts, even when I disagree with them... but I feel like you’re taking things a little too personally/being a bit sensitive.  

Now I understand getting a bit heated with @morneblade... he has that effect on people, lol.  But @Skinsinparadise has pointed to a weariness of the debate with you and you’ve gotten testy about it.  Now to be fair, a part of your testiness is because you’re trying to debate the utilization of FO vs PFF, but it’s pretty clear he didn’t pick up on that; I only did after rereading the last few pages... (god I’m a glutton for punishment sometimes)

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

3 hours ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

I can't wrap my head around this. How pathetic does one need to be to not be able to accept being wrong in putting some faith in your sports entertainment team? on the internets at that, and on a fan forum with other anonymous fans. I mean, just how serious is this internets business of predicting outcomes?

 

If a fan really thinks the team has a shot, puts vocal faith in that belief, and is shown to be wrong later.. who should care? Why would said fan need to hide from other internets people? is there some internet flogging that takes place that should shame the believer? as if putting some faith in your sports team is shameful, awful, and embarrassing?

 

Seriously. If there are any people that should feel a sense of shame or embarrassment.. it would be the people that come into a fan forum everyday.. just to crap on their own team and deride the faith of others. Those are the people that don't seem to be fans of their team at all. 

 

Like I’ve said on numerous occasions, if you’re looking for a pep rally - they are out there.  Here people talk about football: good, bad or indifferent.

 

I find it strange that you keep getting up on your high horse about how people post yet you stoop low on the regular, sidestep actual debate and insinuate that those who oppose your point of view are pathetic, embarrassing and shameful.  

 

[bobandweave]

8 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Kirk had 197 yards last year alone. I'm not sure where you're getting your stats from, but they are not correct.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CousKi00.htm

 

Your right numbers I quoted above are wrong. I was getting the numbers based on attempts my bad good catch

 

 

8 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I agree. Smith is the more athletic of the 2. And I have said so more than once. But the D has to be really stout for this to really work.

 

Not sure why your saying that. Chiefs defense last year was 30th in dvoa and they still went to the playoffs

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Some of these things don't really count. Fact of the matter 2 pretty good coaches didn't think Alex is the key component to their offense. Now, you can talk about Kap not being in the league, and why (which likely has nothing to do with how good or bad a QB he is) and other things, but the fact still is that 2 HC's say Smith as a piece, but not what you build around. As for Cap stuff, You'll see star players take pay cuts pretty consistently if it makes the team better. And I think if asked, Smith would have likely done so.

 

To you they don’t count to me they are meaningful so I disagree. 

 

As for what “not to build around” that’s nonsense. First Smith was the first overall draft pick in his class, 49ers brass disagrees with the idea they didn’t believe in building around him. Second point, the Chiefs one season won two games and then traded for Alex Smith. They then won 50 games with him under center the next five seasons. They don’t make that trade if they weren’t building around him. Last point if Alex wasn’t worth building around then when the Chiefs let it be known he was available there wouldn’t have been at least two teams offering up second round picks for him and many other teams interested in him like there was. The point that teams didn’t build around him flies in the face of reality here.

 

[Morneblade]

9 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

Your right numbers I quoted above are wrong. I was getting the numbers based on attempts my bad good catch

 

 

 

Not sure why your saying that. Chiefs defense last year was 30th in dvoa and they still went to the playoffs

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

 

Well, a couple of things. First, I'm not expecting Smith to have the year he had in '17. And even with Peterson, I don't expect us to have the rushing attack the Chiefs have. Also, the Chiefs, while having a big down year, were 17th in scoring D, not nearly as bad as a lot of people think. Our D needs to be a lot better. I think they can be, but we really don't know until they start playing. So, what I'm saying is that I think we lack some of the things the Chiefs had, and it's going to be on the Defense to help. But, it's just a guess.

 

Quote

 

 

 

To you they don’t count to me they are meaningful so I disagree. 

 

As for what “not to build around” that’s nonsense. First Smith was the first overall draft pick in his class, 49ers brass disagrees with the idea they didn’t believe in building around him. Second point, the Chiefs one season won two games and then traded for Alex Smith. They then won 50 games with him under center the next five seasons. They don’t make that trade if they weren’t building around him. Last point if Alex wasn’t worth building around then when the Chiefs let it be known he was available there wouldn’t have been at least two teams offering up second round picks for him and many other teams interested in him like there was. The point that teams didn’t build around him flies in the face of reality here.

 

 

That's fine. And you are correct, Both teams originally though he was the man. But also, both teams moved on from him. That to me says something. Or course, the same could be said of Cousins, except he was not supposed to be the man here, he was the 4th round pick, not the guy we gave up the farm to get. But, in all cases, the teams moved on.

26 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

 

Eh, I didn’t think anyone really thinks you’re trolling, and I know no one called you boring.  I generally like reading your posts, even when I disagree with them... but I feel like you’re taking things a little too personally/being a bit sensitive.  

Now I understand getting a bit heated with @morneblade... he has that effect on people, lol.  But @Skinsinparadise has pointed to a weariness of the debate with you and you’ve gotten testy about it.  Now to be fair, a part of your testiness is because you’re trying to debate the utilization of FO vs PFF, but it’s pretty clear he didn’t pick up on that; I only did after rereading the last few pages... (god I’m a glutton for punishment sometimes)

 

I can bring the snark, but people have to earn it. Hardcore has earned it.

[Spearfeather]

19 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

Your right numbers I quoted above are wrong. I was getting the numbers based on attempts my bad good catch

 

 

 

Over the last three seasons, Smith has 987 yards rushing. Cousins, 323.

[skinny21]

44 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

Last point if Alex wasn’t worth building around then when the Chiefs let it be known he was available there wouldn’t have been at least two teams offering up second round picks for him and many other teams interested in him like there was. The point that teams didn’t build around him flies in the face of reality here.

 

My take, at the time of the trade, was that Cleveland and Denver were much better fits for Smith.  The former because it needs to break out of obscurity and qb wasteland, and Denver because (similar to their Super Bowl run), I think they were closer than we were.  Not sure about other teams, but I personally would not consider those two to be in a position of building around him. 

I’m still hopeful that an overall improved team coupled with what Smith brings (and how he meshes with Gruden) can get us over the hump.  

 

@Morneblade I worried my last comment would warrant that snark, lol.  Glad you took it as intended.

 

[Veryoldschool]

3 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

And we have lots of people that pine after Cousins and won’t give Alex much chance because they are still pissed Cousins is gone.

 

At least with the pro Alex crowd they are rooting for the success of the Redskins team whereas the Cousins supporters are only talking about events that they neither control or matter anymore.

 

Like others have said for them my loyalty is towards the team not the player, that’s the point of this thread imo. Letting the past go while being hopeful and supportive of the present. Doesn’t matter to me the Redskins may or may not have made mistakes. It’s 2018 not 2016 and the season starts in two weeks. Time to get behind Alex and I know your supportive of Alex not saying your not but it’s clear not everyone feels that way: Imo HTTR

 

 

 

 

You are in no position to lecture others, in my opinion, you seemed to be especially butthurt that Griffin was a bust and dogged Cousins, I think you were 1 of Kirk’s harsh critics on the board.  I am all for letting Cousins go and supporting Smith, I started this thread to encourage that sentiment but stop the holier than thou stuff.

[Morneblade]

6 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

My take, at the time of the trade, was that Cleveland and Denver were much better fits for Smith.  The former because it needs to break out of obscurity and qb wasteland, and Denver because (similar to their Super Bowl run), I think they were closer than we were.  Not sure about other teams, but I personally would consider those two to be in a position of building around him. 

I’m still hopeful that an overall improved team coupled with what Smith brings (and how he meshes with Gruden) can get us over the hump.  

 

@Morneblade I worried my last comment would warrant that snark, lol.  Glad you took it as intended.

 

 

I think Minny would have been a really good spot for Smith as well. Tons of weapons, great defense, dynamic running game. Well, maybe not "build around him", but more "Plug and Play". 

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

4 hours ago, ncr2h said:

Overall, your analysis is missing an incredibly vital stat when it comes to evaluating QBs - pass attempts. Instead of looking at total yards, total sacks, total INTs, etc. you should be looking at them on a per-dropback basis. Over the course of their careers, Smith has...

 

 

You lost me here.

 

I think using stats from 2006 to illuminate how Smith will do now is even more useless than using the W/L record. The sack percentage you mentioned only covered the last three seasons, should probably use that same timespan for everything (or one close to it). Doing so might end up showing the same types of numbers, but at least it will be more accurate. For example, Smith has averaged less than 7 ypa only once during the last seven years...yet for his career he averages 6.9 ypa.

[skinny21]

7 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I think Minny would have been a really good spot for Smith as well. Tons of weapons, great defense, dynamic running game. Well, maybe not "build around him", but more "Plug and Play". 

 

Absolutely... on both points.