Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[MisterPinstripe]

2 minutes ago, bobafett14 said:

You have a low tolerance for annoying.

Which means you won't be a fan of Alex very long.

I'm surprised you have nothing better to do than follow Smith around to trash him on other boards. Did he insult your mother at some point during his career?

 

Shoot me if I ever go to a Vikings forum to trash Cousins after bad games.

[Morneblade]

5 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

I'm surprised you have nothing better to do than follow Smith around to trash him on other boards. Did he insult your mother at some point during his career?

 

Shoot me if I ever go to a Vikings forum to trash Cousins after bad games.

 

Maybe he lost money betting on him? I mean, Alex is only 2-6 in playoff action. That tends to get people's dander up.

[skinny21]

^ That highlights my biggest concern with Smith actually, and it plays into the biggest difference between Smith and Cousins (IMO).  

 

That internal timer goes off and, if no one is open, Smith bails while Cousins fires away (or holds the ball longer than he should).  One gets sacked more, one throws more INTs.  Smith is less likely to fumble because he tucks the ball to run (either getting sacked or picking up some yards), while Cousins is more likely to get the ball out to a receiver (or fumble/get intercepted).  

 

Essentially, Smith = fewer big negative plays - big sacks/fumbles/INTs - but more sacks overall. 

Cousins = more big negative plays, but more yardage.

It’s an interesting difference.  

 

 

[MisterPinstripe]

5 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Maybe he lost money betting on him? I mean, Alex is only 2-6 in playoff action. That tends to get people's dander up.

That's possible. I was pretty upset after Cousins choked in games to even get us TO the playoffs, let alone in, if I lost money too maybe I would act the same way. ??

3 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

^ That highlights my biggest concern with Smith actually, and it plays into the biggest difference between Smith and Cousins (IMO).  

 

That internal timer goes off and, if no one is open, Smith bails while Cousins fires away (or holds the ball longer than he should).  One gets sacked more, one throws more INTs.  Smith is less likely to fumble because he tucks the ball to run (either getting sacked or picking up some yards), while Cousins is more likely to get the ball out to a receiver (or fumble/get intercepted).  

 

Essentially, Smith = fewer big negative plays - big sacks/fumbles/INTs - but more sacks overall. 

Cousins = more big negative plays, but more yardage.

It’s an interesting difference.  

 

 

Yeah that's where I am. I see them as pretty similar outside of the big turnover number differences. This next year will be interesting both for the QB situations and Grudens offense.

[Morneblade]

11 minutes ago, bobafett14 said:

You have a low tolerance for annoying.

Which means you won't be a fan of Alex very long.

 

You'd be surprised.

 

We have a bunch of people that couldn't stand Cousins, and will love Smith, just because it's not Cousins. And for many, the root of it is who was at fault in the rift. Did the FO screw up and low ball Cousins, or was it just that Cousins wanted money and didn't want to be here. It's funny, because if you know anything about the Redskins, the FO has been a disaster for decades, and can't seem to get out of it's own way. Not only that, they tend to get pretty underhanded when it comes to any kind of split in the organization. And yet you have a bunch of people that thinks they can do no wrong.

 

Anyway, as someone that thinks Alex is a good QB, but not great, I hope he looks better than he did last night. We're going to need him. We might have a good D, but we don't know yet. We might have found a RB, but we don't know how much AP as left in the tank, even if it looks like he's got quite a bit. I'm not expeceting 2017, but more around this first 4 years with the Chiefs.

6 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

^ That highlights my biggest concern with Smith actually, and it plays into the biggest difference between Smith and Cousins (IMO).  

 

That internal timer goes off and, if no one is open, Smith bails while Cousins fires away (or holds the ball longer than he should).  One gets sacked more, one throws more INTs.  Smith is less likely to fumble because he tucks the ball to run (either getting sacked or picking up some yards), while Cousins is more likely to get the ball out to a receiver (or fumble/get intercepted).  

 

Essentially, Smith = fewer big negative plays - big sacks/fumbles/INTs - but more sacks overall. 

Cousins = more big negative plays, but more yardage.

It’s an interesting difference.  

 

 

 I think you need to add in that that Cousins has more big plays and more TD's.

Basically, one is more of a gunslinger, and with that comes the good and the bad. The other is more conservative, and with that you get a different good and bad.

[bobandweave]

57 minutes ago, bobafett14 said:

Chiefs fan here. Just wanted to thank you guys for this image. It's hilarious.

 

 

And the offensive line wasn’t a small part of the problem lol

[Spearfeather]

17 minutes ago, bobafett14 said:

I'll give you a heads up, though. This isn't "preseason." This IS Alex Smith. 

 

[ video ]

 

He will abandon a clean pocket for no reason multiple times per game, because his primary instinct is to run. He did it here again.

 

[ video ]

 

 

 

I'm not sure either video is as bad as first glance. 
In the first video, Smith steps up in the pocket ( he could have rolled to the left ) after seeing everyone is covered including Doctson who's running the crossing pattern, two yards behind the first down, and is not even looking for the ball. At the last second Smith just makes the smart safe play by simply throwing the ball in the dirt, towards a receiver.

In the second video he probably should have just taken a couple steps back as again everyone is covered. He wants to roll out to the right but just as he starts to do that, Scherff mysteriously leaves the DL he's blocking to go help Moses with his man even though he doesn't need it, but further blocks Smith's path to the outside and as Smith attempts to then go back left, he's met by the guy that Scherff never should have left in the first place.

[bobafett14]

Those plays are terrible dude. He just ran right into defenders.

 

He has terrible instincts for navigating a pocket.

 

There's a reason his sack percentage has been consistently among the worst in the NFL in the last seven years. He runs himself into sacks.

[Spearfeather]

14 minutes ago, bobafett14 said:

Those plays are terrible dude. 

 

They're really not.

in the first one, a " terrible " play would have been to panic and throw fo a covered receiver 

In the second, if Scherff stays with his man, Smith still has a chance to make a play.

 

He could have played them better, but neither were terrible.

[Going Commando]

11 hours ago, JoeJacobyHOForRIOT said:

Somehow i have the feeling the most talked about subject on this board for 2018 will be , HOW & WHY we let Cousins walk....

 

 

 

Eh, we know the how any why.  Bruce Allen is an incompetent moron.  It's that simple.  Truthfully, we're ****ed as long as Dan Snyder is owner.  But we're really ****ed as long as Allen is running the show.

[bobafett14]

50 minutes ago, Spearfeather said:

 

They're really not.

in the first one, a " terrible " play would have been to panic and throw fo a covered receiver 

In the second, if Scherff stays with his man, Smith still has a chance to make a play.

 

He could have played them better, but neither were terrible.

 

You can think what you like. But I'm telling you, Alex's inability to navigate a pocket effectively is going to kill your offense, especially when it matters most.

 

It did for the Chiefs.

 

Those were clean pockets and Alex destroyed them. That's what is happening on these plays. Alex has time, initially, but his instinct to run causes him to run into a sack, or take an unnecessary hit, when his eyes should be downfield. The incomplete pass is particularly bad because he should be standing tall in that pocket and looking downfield instead of scrambling into a DT and dumping it at the last second.

 

Alex's bad plays aren't as obvious as other quarterbacks. But they are just as bad in their own way, because he isn't going to make up for it with a bunch of big plays. He did last year to some extent, but you guys don't have Tyreek Hill, so you're not getting that career year out of Alex.

 

[Temper11]

4 hours ago, Morneblade said:

Temper11 is a Alex Smith Homer. Of course he is going to say that. Fact of the matter is that the stats don't support Tempers' assertion. Taking one persons unsubstantiated statement, just because you agree, doesn't rebuke anything.

I am a Smith fan.   Very much want to see the dude win it all.   That said, i too thought he looked uncomfortable tonight for whatever reason.  I think Gruden should have left the ones in (although lots of ones missing from the offensive side of the ball) just to see if they could find some rythem before shutting it down for the remainder of the pre-season.  But we're talking about 10 or so drop backs in the preseason.  Count me as not worried in the slightest.  I agree, this looked like it was all about seeing AP. 

 

Regarding stats not supporting my assertions... maybe not, I'm not a huge stats guy... every once in a while something will pique my interest and I'll dig through some numbers, but it's not really worth it to me to do that much work.   ? 

 

But i think many of you kinda make my point for me when you keep talking about last year being such an anomaly statistically for Smith.   What is the one stat that may explain it?  In my homer oppinion it was the ****ty KC defense.  1st time since Smith's resurgence in 2011 that he didn't have a great defense to rely on and what happens? He is in the conversation for league mvp for much of the year.   Isn't that an indication of recognizing he needs to be more aggressive because the D isn't as reliable?  In those previous 4 years with KC and 2 with SF before that... he was playing with a lead in many of those games... and the O would shut it down, play conservative and let the D wrap it up.   Tough to put up gaudy stats when you are really only pushing the ball offensively for 2 to 2.5 quarters.   

 

So, do with that what you will.  Just one "annoying" Smith homers opinion.  I gave up trying to convince "haters" or whatever a while back - but still enjoy the discussion.   Some of you fine folks are gonna hate him.... even if he does help your team to the playoffs 4 out of the next 5 years and division champs twice - and you are certainly entitled to do so.  I don't think the guy is elite.  I think he is pretty damn good and i enjoy following his career and hope to hell he goes all the f'n way.   

[Going Commando]

Smith has always played the QB position with cowardice.  When he's playing in a bad offense like he was on some of those SF teams, he's utterly hapless.  When he's playing in a good one like with some of those KC teams, he's invisible.

[Cooleyfan1993]

5 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

Maybe he lost money betting on him? I mean, Alex is only 2-6 in playoff action. That tends to get people's dander up.

2-6? Thought i saw on tv (last week or this week) that he’s 1-5. Could have been the chiefs playoff record i was seeing though ? both are crappy.

[Temper11]

43 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

2-6? Thought i saw on tv (last week or this week) that he’s 1-5. Could have been the chiefs playoff record i was seeing though ? both are crappy.

Should be 2-5, 1 and 1 with niners.  1 and 4 with chiefs.  

 

A few career playoff stats against a couple of the elites (not that I'm saying he's in that conversation as the elites.. ) just comparing his playoff numbers against theirs to see how he fared statistically in those games.   

 

Smith:

61.7 cmp%, 5.5 TD% , 0.8 int%, 6.9 yrds/attempt

 

Brady:

62.8 cmp%, 4.8 TD% , 2.1 int%, 7 yrds/attempt

 

Rodgers:

63.5 cmp%, 6.1 TD% , 1.7 int%, 7.5 yrds/attempt.

 

And yes... i know that we fan boiz like to point to win loss record for smith regarding regular season... then point to stats in post season...

 

acknowledged and conceded.   ?

[Temper11]

I don't completely disagree with bobbafet either.  Smith does at times get "happy feet" in clean pockets if/when his internal clock goes off and he hasn't found an outlet for the ball he's holding.  I think he picked up this tendency in those early years in SF when he was getting raped on damn near every play.   

 

It's a flaw in his game, no doubt.  And while this particular flaw will result into a few extra sacks (i don't know the appropriate number), it also will result in a few extra 1st downs that he picks up with his own feet... it will result in less fumbles from STRIP sacks standing overly long in a stale pocket,  less picks forcing a ball into well covered receivers, etc.

 

In my opinion, he should continue to trust his instincts.   Doesn't mean his instincts are always gonna be right. But my guess is that they are more right than wrong.   

[MisterPinstripe]

Over the last 3 years Smith has been sacked 108 times for 584 yards at 5.4 yards per sack.

 

Cousins has been sacked 90 times for 718 yards at 7.9 yards per sack.

 

So with Smith we are basically getting 1 and a half sacks more every 4 games than with Cousins, but the offense still has less yards to recover from over the course of a game and year. Both with sacks and fumbles.

 

The biggest advantage Cousins has is he will probably throw more TDs than Smith, but I'm hoping that part of that is Grudens offense. I would be happy with mid 20s TDs as long as we have a running game.

 

 

[HardcoreZorn]

10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

Temper11 is a Alex Smith Homer. Of course he is going to say that. Fact of the matter is that the stats don't support Tempers' assertion. Taking one persons unsubstantiated statement, just because you agree, doesn't rebuke anything.

Did I say anything about agreeing with his assertion? I haven't seen enough of Smith to say anything definitive one way or another. Excellent reading comprehension.

 

10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

Part of your issue here is that the only thing you seem to consider is pass rush grades. You don't even consider rush stopping grades. We we dead last, last year. We could be top 3 in pressures and sacks and be 20th in stopping the run and it's not a great defense. It's pretty average. Not only that, it has a obvious weakness and teams will exploit that. You're being extremely one dimensional.

 

Good is top 10. Great is top 3.

We weren't too shabby in run defense prior to Allen and Ionaidis' injuries. And Zach Brown. And Mason Foster. Why is that just glossed over? Also, last year isn't this year, otherwise the league wouldn't turn over more than half of the playoff teams on a year to year basis. Now we are adding Payne and Settle. So no, if anything I'm projecting. I didn't just forget about the run. But couple our pass rush with a presumably healthier and improved run defense with Payne added to the mix is exciting. Good vs Great is subjective and has nothing to do with anything I'm saying, so again, hats off on the reading comprehension. It's excellent.

 

 

10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

Dude, you're being disingenuous. Opinions are opinions, but you're coming at SiP continually, and he's backing his stuff up with a ton of evidence, while you are not. And because of that, his opinion is worth more, because it's got stuff behind it. Now, you can ignore that, but facts are facts, and stats are stats. And if you can show someone that you're go evidence to back your position, they will likely consider it because you have evidence. It's a discussion board, that's what goes on. Now, if you make a bunch of statements that have no weight behind them, you're not going to convince anyone that your stance is legitiment. Now, if you're continually talking to others, that don't share your view on something, and you're not trying to show them that you are right, just what are you talking to them about? Your logic is failing here.

Dude I've commented a few times now about how plugged in SIP is to Redskins football. I recognize that and have said it. Oh right, reading comprehension. I'm not attacking or coming at anybody. What are you, his body guard?

 

But yeah, when you are that knowledgable you can talk to different takes. Why is it so offensive to ask the difference between his own opinion i.e "let's wait and see" versus "advances stats prove this." There's literally nothing wrong with either take. But I'm not alone on an island with thinking this front seven has the makings to be more than good. Just reference that thread. So wondering why he was talking definitively about Smith versus being more measured on the front 7. The answer could simply be "I don't agree with the advanced stats regarding pressure and don't believe more health and adding Payne will be enough of a boost to be a difference in the run game. But I've watched Smith enough to agree that the guy can't stretch the field. Hence football outsiders take." That would spur football discussion, instead of the "why you coming at me man, what the heck" attitude and his personal cult coming to save the day.

 

I had assumed since you post on here that you read the front seven thread. There's been a lot of good stuff posted in there backing up my take. Like I said, I'm not as plugged in so I rely on others posting here to back up my claims. Didn't realize that makes my arguments inferior or that I need to go out on my own to substantiate my beliefs. Or re post everything in the front seven thread to back up my belief.

 

I am trying to show him I'm right lol. I just don't expect or want him to change his view. It's called debate, apparently some can't handle that concept.

 

10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

Neither, actually.

You're too much. Never change 

 

[MisterPinstripe]

In addition, Cousins would give us this on average per year:

 

TDs = 6.6 more per year

INT = 5.3 more INTs per year

Fumbles = 6 more fumbles per year

 

Im sure some will disagree with me, but while we are on average losing 6.6 TDs, to me that is balanced out by 5.3 fewer interceptions and 6 fewer fumbles. At least not a big enough difference to make me pine after Cousins. Our defense had one of the worst, if not the worst, starting field position in the league. This was caused by issues on ST and all of the turnovers, so improving the turnovers will also help our defense out a lot.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, HardcoreZorn said:

 Just reference that thread. So wondering why he was talking definitively about Smith versus being more measured on the front 7. The answer could simply be "I don't agree with the advanced stats regarding pressure and don't believe more health and adding Payne will be enough of a boost to be a difference in the run game. But I've watched Smith enough to agree that the guy can't stretch the field. Hence football outsiders take." That would spur football discussion, instead of the "why you coming at me man, what the heck" attitude and his personal cult coming to save the day.

 

That problem I have with the front 7 discussion is the way you define it here mischaracterizes my position.   And I think you know it does.   To me, I've had enough of that specific discussion, I told you so awhile back, and you are the one who kept bringing it up.   That's why I said it was boring and repetitive for me.   I didn't say you were boring and repetitive as you responded.  I am sure I've been plenty boring and repetitive on points on the board to others.  Comes with the turf if you post over time -- tough not to repeat. 

 

For me specifically, I think we are spinning our wheels on the front 7 conversation and there has been nothing fresh to me about going back to that well again and again.  And that at least in my mind is not being holier than thou as you put it -- it's just me being bored with it -- debating levels of enthusiasm to me is an odd debate to keep going at it  --especially when there are real targets that are being ignored that will actually debate your point in a real binary way.  We are debating good versus great (to me yawn -- yawn not because of you but because of what I think of those type of discussions) as if there is a wild difference.  We got people here who will debate said subject -- great versus bad.   Why not engage that, that's a real argument with some juice.  Just my 2 cents. ? 

[Fat Stupid Loser]

14 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Good article IMO on the RPO.

 

Ironically I just got Doug Pederson's book and started browsing it -- he flat out says in it Alex introduced him to the RPO

 

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/25/16201116/most-important-play-2017-run-pass-option-rpo-aaron-rodgers-ben-roethlisberger

The Play That Will Define the 2017 NFL Season

Meet the not-so-secret weapon that Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and others are using to flummox even the league’s best defenses: the run-pass option

By Kevin Clark  Aug 25, 2017, 9:23am EDT

 

The RPO has the one trait that NFL teams can’t ignore: it works. Pro Football Focus’s Michael Renner calls the play “free yards.” He found the average NFL game featured about five RPOs last year, the first year the company tracked the play. The Bengals—the Bengals—had the most yards of any team on RPOs last year, at an average of 6.2 per play, or more than a half yard higher than the league average for yards per play in general. At the end of last season, quarterback guru Trent Dilfer told me that these plays had about a 90 percent completion rate league-wide when the quarterback opted to pass. The RPO, in part, fueled Dak Prescott’s record-breaking rookie season, and most college systems run some variation of the play. Unlike many college schemes, it translates well to the NFL level.

“I think this play can be great for a lot of teams,” said Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy....

Trent Dilfer is a QB guru?

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Over the last 3 years Smith has been sacked 108 times for 584 yards at 5.4 yards per sack.

 

Cousins has been sacked 90 times for 718 yards at 7.9 yards per sack.

 

So with Smith we are basically getting 1 and a half sacks more every 4 games than with Cousins, but the offense still has less yards to recover from over the course of a game and year. Both with sacks and fumbles.

I’d say last year was a bit of an anomaly though in terms of sacks taken  by Cousins - awful oline and poor receiving weapons equated to Cousins holding the ball longer.  Extrapolating his first 2 years, he’d be at 73.5 sacks over 3 years.  He will absolutely lose more yardage on average than Smith on those sacks he takes though.  

1 hour ago, MisterPinstripe said:

 

The biggest advantage Cousins has is he will probably throw more TDs than Smith, but I'm hoping that part of that is Grudens offense. I would be happy with mid 20s TDs as long as we have a running game.

 

 

Yeah, I’m hoping that’s the case as well.  

[MisterPinstripe]

28 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I’d say last year was a bit of an anomaly though in terms of sacks taken  by Cousins - awful oline and poor receiving weapons equated to Cousins holding the ball longer.  Extrapolating his first 2 years, he’d be at 73.5 sacks over 3 years.  He will absolutely lose more yardage on average than Smith on those sacks he takes though.  

Yeah, I’m hoping that’s the case as well.  

Sure, that's possible, but I also don't know enough about the Chiefs line over the last 3 years to modify the stats. Chiefs line could have been great when he was sacked 45 times, or it could have been crap, so I didn't take that into account for either QB. Definitely many factors that could go into the number of sacks for both QBs.

[redskinss]

12 hours ago, bobafett14 said:

You have a low tolerance for annoying.

Which means you won't be a fan of Alex very long.

If anybody here had a low tolerance for annoying this place would look like myspace. 

[Sandy Monk]

17 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

Gotcha.  I promise you that many others that share your same point of view will scatter like roaches when the lights come on. 

 

I can't wrap my head around this. How pathetic does one need to be to not be able to accept being wrong in putting some faith in your sports entertainment team? on the internets at that, and on a fan forum with other anonymous fans. I mean, just how serious is this internets business of predicting outcomes?

 

If a fan really thinks the team has a shot, puts vocal faith in that belief, and is shown to be wrong later.. who should care? Why would said fan need to hide from other internets people? is there some internet flogging that takes place that should shame the believer? as if putting some faith in your sports team is shameful, awful, and embarrassing?

 

Seriously. If there are any people that should feel a sense of shame or embarrassment.. it would be the people that come into a fan forum everyday.. just to crap on their own team and deride the faith of others. Those are the people that don't seem to be fans of their team at all.