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The Brexit Thread


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As soon as article 50 is triggered, isn't a two-year clock running? Aside from what that means for decades of legislation and regulations that will need to be changed and the costs of doing that, what happens to European citizens currently working in the UK, and to UK citizens throughout Europe who would similarly lose their rights of work, residency etc. Rights to own businesses and property will change significantly. Changing jobs will be more difficult if countries enforce rules that EU citizens are hired over non--EU, etc.

Re article 50 believe so, not sue Cameron will want to do that on his watch mind so there's another 4 months.

As for the rest, who knows to be fair. One thing for sure, trade won't stop and people won't be shipped out of countries. The legislation was written on the basis no one would ever leave. The whole thing will get looked at now leading to some kind of reforms within the EU, that would be my guess. I'm not suggesting a middle ground will be found, but it won't the the cut all ties scenario that people envisage. That is simply is impossible to enforce.

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This either ends with the EU dissolving or UK being isolated financially from the rest of Europe and potentially breaking up with Scotland choosing the EU over them.

My opinion, the EU won't dissolve but might reform in some way, the U.K will never be financially isolated from the rest of Europe, and Scotland will want out from the UK immediately, they may get there wish but they are not guaranteed greater prosperity within the EU.

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Some levity:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/brexit-tweets-guaranteed-to-make-brits-laugh-cry-or-both?utm_term=.yvZ5d47BX#.wvwer2pgk

 

Some really great ones, like this one:

 

this episode of black mirror is terrible

 

 

Jeez.

 

How many cakes of how many places does the UKIP think they can have and eat too?

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My opinion, the EU won't dissolve but might reform in some way, the U.K will never be financially isolated from the rest of Europe, and Scotland will want out from the UK immediately, they may get there wish but they are not guaranteed greater prosperity within the EU.

 

If the UK is not a member of the EU, the EU has no incentive left to do its financial work out of London.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-brexit-may-be-just-the-beginning-of-anti-europe-votes/?ex_cid=538fb

 

 

 

The second fallout is the likely demise of London as the financial center of Europe. Right now, much of the trading and deal-making for the continent takes place in London, protected by U.K. law. However, London’s current primacy partly also depends on U.K’s membership in the EU. Being in the EU places some limits on what rules the U.K. can require regarding its market structure and regulations, and these limits matter to the others in the EU. I would be shocked if the remaining members of the EU will be content to allow the infrastructure and preferential treatment for businesses that currently resides in London to continue as is when the EU will have no formal authority over developments there. The next U.K. government will no doubt try to do everything possible to retain the status quo, but achieving that outcome can hardly be guaranteed.

I am not suggesting that there will be some immediate rule invoked by the EU to ban activities in London. Instead, I expect that there will be minor adjustments to the current rules that will make it increasingly inconvenient and impractical to continue to run a Europe-wide business from London. Some things will become too expensive to do from London, and rather than duplicate it in two locations, businesses will slowly migrate away.

The financial services industry generates 11 percent of U.K.’s tax revenues.3If this kind of migration does occur, it will be disastrous for the U.K.’s budget. This deterioration in the fiscal outlook for the U.K. is probably one reason the domestic stock market in the U.K. has plunged and why the pound lost value Friday.

 

The whole point of Brexit, pushed by UKIP, is to control and close borders. The way the EU is set up currently, you can't enjoy the financial incentives while closing your borders and restricting financial and labor mobility. 

 

We're talking about major reforms in the EU if the UK isn't to be financially isolated. I don't know if the UK is that important to the EU that it fundamentally changes the way it functions.

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UK stocks lost 200 billion pounds in an hour and half. That is the cost of UK's EU membership fees for 24 years. Scotland will certainly walk and Ireland will want reunification. No one can complain about the stupidity of the American electorate again. Stupidity is a global phenomenon.

Edited by SoCalSkins
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If the UK is not a member of the EU, the EU has no incentive left to do its financial work out of London.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-brexit-may-be-just-the-beginning-of-anti-europe-votes/?ex_cid=538fb

 

 

 

The whole point of Brexit, pushed by UKIP, is to control and close borders. The way the EU is set up currently, you can't enjoy the financial incentives while closing your borders and restricting financial and labor mobility. 

 

We're talking about major reforms in the EU if the UK isn't to be financially isolated. I don't know if the UK is that important to the EU that it fundamentally changes the way it functions.

I have no idea what happens, but the UK is the second strongest economy in the EU and a major military power. Leaving significantly weakens the EU. 

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/thousands-londoners-demand-independence-brexit-160010322.html;_ylt=AwrBT9jWaW1XV7UAwpFXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyaHZjYzhtBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjE4NzlfMQRzZWMDc2M-

Thousands of Londoners demand independence after Brexit

 

Tens of thousands of Londoners signed a petition for their metropolis to stay in the European Union on Friday, as Mayor Sadiq Khan said the city must have a say in Britain's exit negotiations.

 

More than 40,000 people signed a petition on the change.org website saying: "Declare London independent from the UK and apply to join the EU".

 

While Britain voted 52 percent in favour of leaving the EU in Thursday's referendum, 60 percent of Londoners voted for Britain to stay.

 

"London is an international city, and we want to remain at the heart of Europe," the petition said.

 

"Let's face it -- the rest of the country disagrees. So rather than passive aggressively vote against each other at every election, let's make the divorce official and move in with our friends on the continent.

 

"This petition is calling on Mayor Sadiq Khan to declare London independent, and apply to join the EU," it said.

 

Khan himself issued a statement on the negotiations for Britain's departure from the EU.

 

"It is crucial that London has a voice at the table during those renegotiations, alongside Scotland and Northern Ireland," the pro-EU mayor said.

"Although we will be outside the EU, it is crucial that we remain part of the single market," he said.

 

"Leaving the single market of 500 million people -- with its free-trade benefits -- would be a mistake. I will be pushing the government to ensure this is the cornerstone of the negotiations with the EU," he said.

 

Another petition entitled "London to remain part of the European Union" garnered over 9,000 signatures on change.org, saying the vote to leave the EU was "a vital decision that we don't agree with".


https://global.handelsblatt.com/edition/457/ressort/politics/article/schaubles-secret-brexit-plan#.V21Tqz3-UJA.twitter

Schäuble's Secret Brexit Plan

 

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has already made preparations for a Brexit, according to a document obtained by Handelsblatt. Germany is willing to negotiate an association agreement with Britain, but wants to avoid making too many concessions that would give incentives for other states to follow suit.

 

The German government aims to push for the European Union to negotiate an association agreement with Britain once it leaves the E.U., but wants to avoid making too many concessions that would give incentives for other states to follow suit, according to an internal German finance ministry paper seen by Handelsblatt.

 

An association treaty spells out trading rules and other regulations between the European Union and a non-E.U. country, for instance whether import tariffs apply to certain goods or services.

 

A treaty with Britain, once it had left the European Union, should not offer too much leeway to Britain in gaining access to the European Union’s internal market, said the ministry’s document, of which Handelsblatt has obtained a copy.

 

The document, prepared by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s department, is called “German strategy regarding Brexit.” Eight pages long, the paper details how the government wants to deal with Britain as it leaves the European Union.

 

To deter other European countries from leaving the bloc, the European Union “should refrain from setting wrong incentives for other member states when renegotiating relations,” said the paper.

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I have no idea what happens, but the UK is the second strongest economy in the EU and a major military power. Leaving significantly weakens the EU. 

For a time, yes, but the reality is that all these countries are interconnected.

 

It may be too gloomy, but it is not totally implausible to see:

- Scotland/Ireland/Wales jump ship and rejoin the EU

- European finances flow through elsewhere

- The UK effectively cut off from the EU Single Market (for a time)

- Several years of uncertainty after Article 50 is invoked where the UK has to re-negotiate new trade deals with everyone

 

The EU is relatively stable despite the UK's exit.  All their trade deals are still in place, and some of the lost economic power might be coming back once banking is relocated.  The EU will be smaller, but barring more states trying to bail, it will recover and keep chugging along.  The UK has more to lose here if the EU doesn't give into UKIP's demands to gain tariff free access to the single market.

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And here comes the next morning regret.

 

http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/update/2016-06-24/cornwall-pleas-for-reassurance-it-will-not-be-worse-off-following-brexit-vote/

   
Cornwall pleas for reassurance it will not be 'worse off' following Brexit vote

 

Cornwall has issued an urgent plea for reassurance that it will not be worse off following the Brexit vote.

The county has received a "significant amounts" of funding from the EU for the past 15 years due to its "relatively weak economy".

But, after 56.5% of voters in the county chose to leave the Union, the council says it is now seeking urgent reassurance that money allocated to it will still be received.

 

 

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Jesus, this is insane.

 

Never underestimate the power of lies and propaganda to coerce an electorate into voting against it's own interests. Wow. I wonder where the dominoes will stop falling. Ireland/Scottland/France could all see upheaval.

 

Somewhere, Putin is sipping on sangria while topless, and on horseback.

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You really imagine that went into this? You think old people sat around saying "well we've only got 10 years of life left so we can stand to ruin everything with minimal discomfort, let's do it!" Honestly, I find this particular argument to be completely ridiculous.

There are valid arguments for wanting the UK to stay in the EU, "old people don't have to live long" is not among them.

 

 

And just where the heck did you get that from?

 

You were narking at young people thinking they were smarter than the older voter and ****ing about them through this. I merely pointed out that there's been a massive disconnect when they've all been interviewed between informed 20'somethings and 50'soethhings who's standard response was 'to boot out all the immigrants' with absolutely nothing behind it. And as such to me, Hell yeah the younger folk have a point for being pissed at how the majority demographic voting in this referendum have sent the final result when this result impact's there lifetime far more. 

 

Don't agree but please don't put words in my mouth that were never there or you inferred ta man.

 

Hail. 

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All their trade deals are still in place, and some of the lost economic power might be coming back once banking is relocated.  

 

For a single sector that represents well north of 10% of GDP, this is not going to be minor. Many thousands of jobs in England associated with access to European markets will move. Big winners will be Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Edinburgh. The mood in London's financial sector today is very, very dark. Everyone at more junior levels fears for their jobs. Some estimates say 15-20% of the 2.2 million UK financial services jobs will go.

 

The world's largest foreign exchange market is in London. That will change if the European Central Bank likely forces Euro trading out of London.

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.....

 

Somewhere, Putin is sipping on sangria while topless, and on horseback.

 

That's something else very real that's being completely and utterly missed by the mainstream media. 

 

The fact that Putin is looking stronger through all this. As a result of this vote, the EU as a whole is looking decidedly more fragile. Putin has always seen the EU as the greatest rival to Russian power, and he's worked hard to try to weaken it as he's seen it as an ever expanding organisation, that is imposing itself on areas of traditional Russian influence, such as Ukraine.

 

And when you factor in the rise of anti-EU parties in countries such as Germany, Italy, Sweden etc, the EU is certainly looking weaker, and Putin stronger.

 

Which is about as worrying as it gets on a World security stage. 

 

Hail. 

Edited by Gibbs Hog Heaven
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The price of freedom was never cheap. The U.K. Will take it on the chin for a couple months but their economy will rebound. At least they got it through a democratic process and not via the military battlefield.

Edited by Zazzaro703
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The U.K. Will take it on the chin for a couple months but their economy will rebound.

Might take longer than a few months but I agree with the sentiment, I think it will rebound too.

After this is implemented, they have the freedom to live, work and study in one.

That's the assumption at present, may not be the reality.

Edited by UK SKINS FAN '74
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Interesting stuff. If I were British, I don't think I'd like the EU dictating what my country does.

Yet at some point, you've got to be able to work with other countries and this is a huge slap in the face to the EU and I don't see them playing nice for a while. It will no doubt cause a recession in Britain and likely the EU as well.

Can Britain make it through at least a temporary recession until things stabilize?

We will see.

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What's with these countries thinking they can just leave?

 

sound like a buncha NOVA weenies 

 

on a side note I never knew Scotland had about as people than my county......raise the flag and slit some throats 

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That's the assumption at present, may not be the reality.

 

You seem to think that the UK can leave a dominant economic bloc while simultaneously retaining all or most of its prime benefits like free trade and free movement across borders.

 

The reality is that the EU is going to make an example out of you to prevent right wing nationalists from gaining this much influence in their own countries. There is no purpose to the EU if countries can leave, close their borders, not pay any fees but still have access to open borders in other countries and free trade without personal commitment.

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