2016 ES GMs mock draft - and we're spent.

[PokerPacker]

I won't participate in UDFA since there's absolutely no way to properly simulate it. However, I will say that one player that intrigued me, and on whom I almost spent my seventh round pick, was David Onyemata. Hailing from Nigeria, he got his first taste of football at the age of 18 when he moved to Canada for college. He quickly became one of Canada's top players with his rare combination of size and athleticism perfect for the defensive line. He could, understantably, use some work refining his technique, and from watching him at the East-West shrine game, he could probably stand to play a bit more on the aggressive side.

[Conn]

Surprised that Darius Jackson didn't merit a late round pick for someone just on athletic freakishness alone

[Epochalypse]

A few names that I'll watch for (besides Onyemata):

 

Wendell Smallwood, RB, West Virginia

Darion Griswold, TE, Arkansas St

Jakeem Grant, WR, Texas Tech

LeShaun Sims, CB, Southern Utah

Hunter Sharp, WR, Utah St

David Morgan, TE, Texas-San Antonio

Greg Milhouse, DE, Campbell

Steven Daniels, LB, Boston College

Robby Anderson, WR, Temple

[Conn]

Big fan of Grant as a punt returner and gadget guy. Fun to watch, like a better Brandon Banks with more RAC ability and not just straight line speed.

[RedBeast]

Great job ya'll. It's the first year I've followed it from beginning to end

[TSO]

Epoch, standing ovation once again. You truly do an amazing job and I'm constantly impressed.

Congrats to everyone else involved as well, especially the regulars who kept this thing interesting throughout like GHH, Wildbunny, PokerPacker, goskins10, wilco_holland, skinny21, Rufus, DogofWar, SIP, clskinsfan and I'm sure I'm missing others who deserve better from me.

I'm not a big college football guy, so the fact that this can hold my interest in any way at all proves its value.

[Wildbunny]

 

Once again we made it. That was tough, we ran into lots of trouble, but we made it.

So yeah we can be proud of ourselves for going through it, as it's no small feat. That requires time, patience, and lots of dedication to scout guys, get accustomed to a team that we don't really like except for PokerPacker. Even if that's time consuling as hell, if it's frustrating at times, it's still a fun thing to do. I believe I'll start scouting guys right now for next year's draft because I'm pretty sure there'll be another one of these.

Kudos to Epoch once again for runnig this thing and keeping guys in touch (wasn't able to do as much I'd like to, need better effort from myself as well next year) and to everyone that goes through it.

 

With that said, let's go back with the Jaguars 2016 Mock draft selection that went like this:

Rd 1 5. Jacksonville Jaguars - VERNON HARGREAVES III, CB, Florida

Rd 2 47. Jacksonville Jaguars (from New Orleans Saints) - LE'RAVEN CLARK, OL, Texas Tech

Rd 3 69. Jacksonville Jaguars - SCOOBY WRIGHT III, ILB, Arizona

Rd 4 103. Jacksonville Jaguars - JACK ALLEN, C, Michigan St

Rd 5 146. Jacksonville Jaguars - JAMES COWSER, DE, Southern Utah

Rd 6 181. Jacksonville Jaguars - DARRELL GREENE, G, San Diego St

Rd 6 187. Jacksonville Jaguars (through Washington Redskins (from Saints)) - DREW KASER, P, Texas A&M

Rd 6 201. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Steelers) - MIKE BERCOVICI, QB, Arizona St

Rd 7 226. Jacksonville Jaguars - LAQUAN MCGOWAN, FORCE OF NATURE, Baylor

Rd 7 242. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Washington Redskins) - ANDY JANOVICH, FB, Nebraska

 

Summary of trades:

- Jacksonville Jaguars trade pick#38 to the new Orleans Saints for pick#47, pick#152 and New Orleans' 4th round pick next year

- Jacksonville Jaguars trade pick#152 to the Washington Redskins for pick#187 and pick#242

 

I'm pretty pleased with the outcome of events even if it really, really, didn't happened like planning. And it started with...

Rd 1 Pick 1: Jalen Ramsey, FS, Florida St.

Ramsey was my guy for 5th from the beginning of this, and by beginning I meant when I suscribed to it. So I tried almost anything possible (except bothered guys in PM, I'll probably have to do it next year) to get those 4 guys in front of me to think anythink else but Ramsey. And I'm worried because I've got GHH picking at #4 and I'm pretty sure if Ramsey falls to him, he won't let it go.I don't have enuough ammo and the Jaguars are only beginning to contend, so I don't want to mortgage there future by giving up a huge bunch of picks to move to 2 or 3. It wouldn't make much sense. And at the same time I'm pretty confident that the Titans would go Tunsil, which seems like an obvious choice (and a good one).

Then it starts and NOOOOOOOOOO!!! Ramsey is taken with the first pick of the draft! That's one of those wtf moment where you want to throw your keyboard into the screen and run away from this, or send a PM to the commissionner and say "they're cheating! they just can't, can't we start over please?"

 

Well I didn't send a PM to Epoch, but I'm pretty sure, he or GHH will come here with false proofs that it really happened.

 

So then, I'm left with a debate within myself between Hargreaves and Buckner, because I don't think Tunsil or even Bosa would fall to me... Tunsil goes with 2, Jack at 3 and Elliott at 4! Damn! I predicted it. Then I'm here at #5th and Bosa's still available. With both my guys. I didn't spend much time looking for trades, and I decided with the apparent falling of DL in this draft, and the fact that's it's overly loaded with talent this year, it would be safer to go Hargreaves + Bullard/Butler/Dodd in the second, that going Bosa + whoever CB is left in the second (not that I don't like them, but the drop of talent if huge to me).

 

Reaching the second round, everything have been according to the plan rather smoothly, some guys are still there to my liking. Dodd leave two spots before me, but I'm still ok. Then, I'm on the clock, ready to pick my guy (and that is Bullard), and NO and Chicago decides to start a bidding war. Chicago have a nice offer and isn't too far down. But NO came back with an even better offer, aa bit further than what I would have wanted, but I gave it a shot. Floyad, Butler, Jones... and BAM! Bullard goes with the Rams... And once again I want to kill that guy, two spot in front of me. Back to the scouting department to see what's left... Le'Raven Clark... And hopefully for me, the Lions went with NGakoue in the second (really surprising pick to me) after going with Billing in the first.

 

Finally, Rd 3 is the first that happened as planned. Scooby Wright III was my choice for this pick from the beginning, and I got the guy. It may be a little soon, but I wasn't really sure he'd made it to the fourth.

 

Rd 4 is where I wanted to take a C, because, well, I need one with only Bowanko on my roster and Wiz not being able to stick (what's wrong with him seriously??). And by the time I pick, I'm left with Allen, Boehm and Tuerk. Allen was my guy because I thought Tuerk would be gone by then... I went back and forth between the two, until I decided that Tuerk was too tall for my QBs, so I sticked to my guy: Allen.

 

Reaching the 5th round, I have two picks, I can finally grab a DL, my last option, not a bad one to get in the 5th, but a huge drop of talent in James Cowser, guy is interesting and plays with high motor so that might pays off in the end, But Hargreaves + Cowser isn't exactly the same as Bosa + Kendall Fuller for example... Then come my second pick and the Redskins come to me with a nice trade option that I decide is too much to let go and that will give me an opportunity for something fun in the end of the draft at #242, because it have to be fun. I was planning to go with  Justin Simmon as my second 5th round pick, but I believe he'll be there at 181. And bam again, Cleveland goes with him at 173.

 

If you except the fact that simmons was taken right before the beginning of the 6th, it was almost as planned. I wanted it to go Simmons/Greene/Boerhinger, that german dude that seems interesting. Simmons is picked at 173, so Greene who was supposed to be my second choice this round became the first. Then, BAM again! the Bears goes with that german dude? But really, who scouted a german dude in this mock draft? Who did that besides me and besides GHH? Well... Epoch did... So with pick 187 I go with Drew Kaser as my last resort option because I don't really know what to do at the time being. Mike Bercovici at 201 is just me raising everyone's left in my table because I was looking for him in the 7th.

 

Then last round, I'm left with two picks 226 and 242. With only one player I want to take: LaQuan McGowan at 242, option I decided to do when I made the trade with the Redskins. That 400lbs TE is an interesting choice because he's so different from what you can get at TE. He'll probably never got drafted IRL, but I thought that we had to do it. But since I picked Berco at the end of the 6th, I have to go with McGowan in the early 7th because I don't know what to do otherwise... So I really have back to scouting a few guys to decide what to do at 242, before finally finding that Janovich wouldn't be much of a bad choice in the end.

 

That was a real tough draft to do, that wasn't exactly as planned, but I'm pretty sure all of you had some of those bam moments when you just want to curse the whole whorld and go into killing spree madness or something alike that would make Jason Vorhees or Freddy Kruger blush...

 

Edit: original board:

Rd 1: Jalen Ramsey, FS/CB

Rd 2: Jonathan Bullard, DE

Rd 3: Scooby Wirght III, ILB

Rd 4: Jack Allen, C

Rd 5: Paul Perkins, RB

Rd 6 pick 1: Justin Simmons, S

Rd 6 pick 2: Darrell Greene, G

Rd 7: Mike Bercovici, QB

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Sweet. Another completed mock. 

 

What did I win?  .

 

Hail. 

[PokerPacker]

What did I win?  .

Most Long-Winded GM.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Most Long-Winded GM.

 

 

WOOT! Retained for the second straight year! 

 

BEAT THAT SUCKERS!

 

Hail. 

[Baughlin']

 

Ramsey was my guy for 5th from the beginning of this, and by beginning I meant when I suscribed to it. So I tried almost anything possible (except bothered guys in PM, I'll probably have to do it next year) to get those 4 guys in front of me to think anythink else but Ramsey. And I'm worried because I've got GHH picking at #4 and I'm pretty sure if Ramsey falls to him, he won't let it go.I don't have enuough ammo and the Jaguars are only beginning to ...

Then it starts and NOOOOOOOOOO!!! Ramsey is taken with the first pick of the draft! That's one of those wtf moment where you want to throw your keyboard into the screen and run away from this

 

Reaching the second round, everything have been according to the plan rather smoothly, some guys are still there to my liking. Dodd leave two spots before me, but I'm still ok.

Ramsey wasn't gonna make it past 3, 110%. No amount of PM's would've done the trick for a trade. Threw me for a loop that Tunsil wasn't there either. The real SD GM really can't screw this up (or can he)

 

I was sweating out the Dodd pick those last few picks as well, I also had Bullard as a back up plan, would love either on The Skins.

[Wildbunny]

WOOT! Retained for the second straight year! 

 

BEAT THAT SUCKERS!

 

Hail. 

 

Fear me next year dude!

 

Ramsey wasn't gonna make it past 3, 110%. No amount of PM's would've done the trick for a trade. Threw me for a loop that Tunsil wasn't there either. The real SD GM really can't screw this up (or can he)

 

I was sweating out the Dodd pick those last few picks as well, I also had Bullard as a back up plan, would love either on The Skins.

 

I love the fact that Bullard never missed a tackle. You can't underrate that kind of feet. Much like an alligator, when he bites, he'll drag you down.

I know about Ramsey that it would be tough. My problem was to manage to get those Goff and Wentz in the thick of things. Didn't managed to.

[Baughlin']

So I've been thinking about a way to speed up the process next year. We went with a 12-hour on-the-clock time to deal with people in varying timezones. Instead of that, maybe we could have each GM select for themselves an 8-hour (maybe 6-hour?) period 

If anything maybe make rounds 1 & 2 that short? Can't speak for anyone else but my 'short lists' tend to get longer and take more time to compile as the rounds go on. My targets for 1 & 2 were pretty etched  in stone by the time we started in both years. 

[Wildbunny]

If anything maybe make rounds 1 & 2 that short? Can't speak for anyone else but my 'short lists' tend to get longer and take more time to compile as the rounds go on. My targets for 1 & 2 were pretty etched  in stone by the time we started in both years. 

 

I believe that's almost the same for every one in this. But I also tend to think that trades are most likely to attend in such rounds as well. I do believe that problems lies in people more than the rules themselves. It's really time consuming and require lots of dedication to it. If you're only interested in rounds 1/2 or are not sure that you'll get enough time, don't get involved in it.

 

Edit: not directing this as anyone, just sharing a personnal thought on the matter.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

I believe that's almost the same for every one in this. But I also tend to think that trades are most likely to attend in such rounds as well. I do believe that problems lies in people more than the rules themselves. It's really time consuming and require lots of dedication to it. If you're only interested in rounds 1/2 or are not sure that you'll get enough time, don't get involved in it.

 

Edit: not directing this as anyone, just sharing a personnal thought on the matter.

 

 

Out of likes but I second the thought. 

 

Get out of my head you! You're scrambling an already overloaded mess in there with your Galic ways!

 

Hail. 

[wilco_holland]

I would grade my draft a 6,5 out of 10. What's that, a C in America? I think we added some some solid guys with upside. At the end of the day, the Patriots always have a pretty filled roster. So I then like to take some shots in late round because I don't think there is enough place to give all these guys a roster spot. Just take some high upside guys and see if they work out. Only I did like to grab a better OT. There main need. 

 

First two picks where from the guy before me. Not huge fan of Henry in New Engeland, but at end of 2nd he is solid value. I understand the Javon pick, is best option for New England scheme when looking at dlineman. Personally I would have take Alexander OG/OT from LSU or Neal from Florida. 

 

Needed to reach a little in the 3th. OT was a prime spot that I wanted to upgrade and there wheren't a hole lot left that I feel have good upside to start for years to come. Tapper was nice value pick. Like him in there scheme and think he is a good 3th round player. 

 

Traded up in the 5th for a player that was already picked...so took White. I thought he would be a 4th rounder so glad picked him up. Not crazy upside but just very good corner. 

 

Really happy with my 6th round. Baby Gronk is so varsatile, could be a Swiss-army knife. Fill multipy roles on the roster. North is a WR who could be a great player in couple of years, he has all the athletic abilitie. Zimmer is also crazy athletic guy, huge upside. Both player could be cut by the season starts or become great starters. Depends on how they pick it up mentally. 

 

Had late 5th - 6th round grade on Roger Lewis, so picked up the value there. Read some good stuff about Roberts, so took shot at him there. Was really hard choice between him and TE Morgan. 

 

 

Round 2

60. New England Patriots - DERRICK HENRY, RB, Alabama

61. New England Patriots (from Cardinals) - JAVON HARGAVE, DT, South Carolina St

 

Round 3

91. New England Patriots - JERALD HAWKINS, OT, LSU

96. New England Patriots (compensatory) - CHARLES TAPPER, EDGE, Oklahoma

 

Round 5

168. New England Patriots (from Carolina Panthers) - DJ WHITE, CB, Georgia Tech

 

Round 6

208. New England Patriots (compensatory) - GLENN GRONKOWSKI, FB, Kansas St

214. New England Patriots (compensatory) - MARQUEZ NORTH, WR, Tennessee

221. New England Patriots (compensatory) - JUSTIN ZIMMER, DT, Ferris St

 

Round 7

243. New England Patriots (from Texans) - ROGER LEWIS, WR, Bowling Green

250. New England Patriots - ELANDON ROBERTS, ILB, Houston

[Epochalypse]

What did I win? .

Hail.

You get to be Jerruh next year.

Grats.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

You get to be Jerruh next year.

Grats.

 

 

TWO! I'mma on a ROLL!

 

Hail 

[DogofWar1]

I think I'd give my Saints draft a B or B+, depending on how heavily I weigh "big talent" versus "depth and ST."

 

Good top end talent with A'Shawn Robinson, Leonard Floyd, and Pharoh Cooper.  Good potential with McGovern.  I want to add 3 starting caliber players each draft, and I feel confident that's happened with Robinson and Cooper.  Floyd I'm actually the least confident of the 3 on, but I think with a little coaching and 20 pounds, he'll develop into a strong DE.  '17 or '18 he'll become a high snap count starter.

 

However, with only 5 picks, there's little depth and ST.  McGovern, a guard, isn't going to be ST.  Boddy-Calhoun might but that's one.

 

I'm leaning towards B+ because I weigh getting those 3 starters heavier than a bunch of depth, plenty of random depth guys around the league to be had for cheap, but cheap guys who have been in the league 4-6 years aren't going to elevate the team.

[daveakl]

Pretty happy with how things went for Dallas.

Got a stud RB and a TE to groom for next year.

Defense picks were about volume. 2 CBs, 3 DLs, 2 LBs, 1 S. These guys should all provide depth and special teams value.

Cravens is going to be a stud and wouldn't shock me if he is the defensive rookie of the year. Can play olb and S depending on the package we have on the field.

[TSO]

I'm going to let this stick around until a bit after the draft like we did last season before moving it to the Mock draft forum. 

 

Hope you guys are in here discussing where your picks went when they're made in the real draft. Especially if the Skins pick a player you picked here! 

[skinny21]

Had a lot of fun, but I didn't show well.

Somehow, someway, I just completely whiffed on Doctson.

While I really like Fackrell, I think I ought to have gone with Ifedi instead.

Missing Docton meant I forced the Thomas pick in the 3rd. Otherwise, I'd have nabbed Martin for my 3rd. Then I would have gone with Byard in the 4th (one of my favorite safeties who I hoped would last to the 5th) instead of Tuerk.

Missing Byard meant I was set on Dillon in the 5th... he was taken 2 picks before me.

I like my 4th and 2 5th round picks though - Tuerk, Vigil and I think Houston would be a great spot for Hogan.

In the 6th - couldn't get a trade down (to gain a 7th for Anderson), but Houston really needs another receiving TE and Anderson really impressed the heck out of me as a receiver.

So, I got some guys I'm... passionate about (Kyler Fackrell, Mike Thomas, Max Tuerk and Stephen Anderson), but completely blew the 1st pick and could have very likely gotten far better value in the 3rd.

The Texans, in some ways, are similar to the Redskins. Both need a dlineman, arguably 2 (a NT and DE). And both need a WR, a center and a safety.

Texans also needed a receiving TE, and a backup plan at OLB, T and ILB (for oft-injured Cushing). Lastly, they needed a developmental QB... but one that could realistically take over for Osweiler w/in 2-3 years if he doesn't pan out.

Overall, I think the Texans look like a different team with an offense including Osweiler (and Hogan) at QB, Lamar Miller at running back, Hopkins, Thomas, Strong and Shorts at WR, Tuerk added at C, and a TE in Anderson that can be a Qb's best friend.

Defense now has Fackrell joining Clowney and Whitney, Clark pairing with Watt at DE (and/or taking over from Wilfork), and Vigil developing behind Cushing.

B for effort, but I'm giving myself a C-. I like DL Kenny Clark and his fit for the 'Texans, though I was hoping to trade down (much as I feel about the 'Skins) . But not selecting Docton hurt, and so did not winding up with a safety.

if Thomas turns into a good NFL receiver, I reserve the right to change my (irrelevant) grade to an A

[ZRagone]

So the Chief's front office scolded some of it's scouts, which unfortunately didn't get them some updated information on picks until after the draft concluded. Silly scouts, dragging their feet for our draft

Anyways, quick snap shot from my metrics, which I will note again are not a definitive science and simply a snap shot based on the rankings by various entities across the internet. Those that have been updated most recently are given a greater weight to get a more accurate depiction of things.

For those not here last year or don't remember, brief explanation in the spoilers

below:

I take the big boards of a variety of entities I find online. My theory is that the larger amount of input you get, the more you mitigate a single poor evaluator or someone over/under rating a particular player. As such, I grab as many as I can.

Currently, I'm using 7 big boards (and can always add more). CBS's, SBNations, Drafttek, Draft Countdown, Scout, NFL.com, and Draftgeek. The first three are given a higher weight because they're extremely newly updated. They also help as being the longest of all the big boards as well. I average the ranks out for all of these to create an overall Big Board ranking.

Each player is assigned a round value based on where they stand in relation to everyone else. The top 20 are given a first round score of 8. The next 20 are givein a "1-2" grade at 7.5. The next 20 are given a second round grade of 7. And so on. This allows for determining the "talent value" of each player.

Individual picks are judged a few ways. First, it looks at the pure +/- of where the pick is taken compared to where they're ranked. This is then taken and used to get a more accurate rating that trys to take into account the realities of a draft. An average pick value for each section of a round (early, mid, late) is determined and set as the "norm", with each pick in that section modified based on this. So if EVERYONE is taking "reachs" in the middle of the second, then it adjusts for this indicating that it's not really a reach but likely an issue of a run on a certian position or other such issue.

Steals are rated as more valuable, and reaches less painful, in round 1. Additionally, both steals and reaches are less painful in the later rounds, with reaches especially softened with the understanding that late round fliers are normal. Mid rounds penalize reaches slightly more due to the plethora of talent available there.

Finally, a standard deviation is determined allowing for a "maximum" score for steals and for reaches. This helps make sure that a team with a MAJOR reach or a MAJR steal doesn't swing their entire draft on that one pick.

Top 5 teams in terms of Adjusted Value

1. Saints

2. Chiefs

3. Rams

4. Falcons

5. Bucs

Top 5 teams in terms of total talent added

1. Cowboys

2. Browns

3. Niners

4. Bears

5. Raiders

Bottom 5 teams in terms of adjusted value

1. Lions

2. Jaguars

3. Giants

4. Redskins

5. Texans

22 teams managed a positive adjusted value on average across the draft.

8 teams managed a better than 4th round average on their entire draft.

12 teams brought in 4 or more pieces of 3rd round+ talent (this includes trades).

Note again, analytics aren't the end all be all. A draft could look poor based on stats but look to be a great fit for the team based on team needs and how that fit with their draft. And, as with ALL drafts, what happens AFTERWARDs is what will really tell the story. But I'm of the belief that statistics like this do have a place in evaluation and are a useful factor.

Not going to go into every single teams information like last year (as some people didn't really like it and I don't have quite as much free time), but will look for some interesting things that jump out at me to post. I'll also post info for anyone that actively requests it.

[daveakl]

Woo dogie, cowboys added a lot of talent!

[skinny21]

Texans totally deserve that, lol. But I'm guessing taking my 3rd round pick out of the equation would lead to a big jump up.

My guess:

Clark - ok value

Fackrell - ok value

Thomas - terrible value

Tuerk - decent to good value

Vigil - ok to good value

Hogan - ok to good value

Anderson - ok value

Ok value meaning they're slotted below where I took them, but not by too much.

Would be really curious to see where your metrics match up with the real draft. Of course, just because GMs pick differently, it doesn't mean they were more 'right' than the experts. Still would/will be interesting to see.