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2016 ES GMs mock draft - and we're spent.

Epochalypse

By Epochalypse
in The Stadium

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Epochalypse

Epochalypse

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Keep in mind this first round of analysis is a comparison between who we drafted and where we drafted them compared to draft pundits. Once the actual draft runs its course, we will get a comparison with how nfl front offices valued these players. But ultimately what matters in this exercise, at least in my opinion, is what kind of career these players have.

Thats why id like to do this over a few years so that we can go back and truly determine who fared the best, given the obvious distortion that occurs from locked rosters and players not ending up on the teams we selected them to.

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ZRagone

ZRagone

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Might I request a little more insight on the Packers' draft? I'm mostly curious due to the dissonance of where my draft falls in adjusted value metric compared to all the other metrics:

7th in total talent value

13th in average talent value

(T)5th in 3rd round talents

12th in absolute talent

...

...

20th in adjusted value

Sure thing.

So first thing to keep in mind, the Talent related rankings (total, average, 3rd+) take into account future year trades. In your case, it assumes one piece of "Talent" you added is a late 2nd rounder next year. I plug in the average round score for that section of the draft this year into your "talent" total, as it assumes you'll get a similarly talented individual in the following draft.

Unlike the draft trade chart, the Talent measurements doesn't downgrade a pick because it's next year. However, this only factors into the TALENT measurements. It doesn't fit into the value charts, which deal only with the people you actually take.

You also had a fair number of picks, at 8, which helped in terms of total value. And you managed to hit on a 3rd round or better talent with all of your picks in the 3rd round or less.

In terms of your draft, the Josh Ferguson pick in the 4th is what's largely dragging it down. It came with a -12.10 rating in terms of final +/-. He had an aggregate rank of 186, which was about 55 spots later than where you grabbed him in the 4th. This is coupled with the 4th being in the meaty part of the draft where reaches aren't given the same softening that is present really early or really late.

The rest of the draft was solid, but no spectacular pick that helped to balance the Ferguson one. Darron Lee was a 6.51 as your only pick over 6. Lawrence-Stample and Kyle Murphy were both over 5. Everyone else howevered between +3 to -3.

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CommDownMan

CommDownMan

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Denver draft Final:

 

Trade back to add 2017 2nd rounder (Dallas)

 

2nd- Jaylon Smith, LB - Notre Dame

 

Admittedly a risk, not something I'd do if we started over at this point, knowing how the medical went.  Talent is definitely there and will hopefully pay dividends next year.

 

2nd- Joshua Garnett, OG - Stanford

 

Loss of Mathis will hurt the line and I'm very much expecting to need a strong running game to combat the loss of Manning and Brock, along with a D that has lost some key pieces.  Garnett looks to be a strong run blocker (that will be fun to watch).

 

3rd- Dak Prescott, QB - Miss St

 

I have a feeling Prescott won't last this long the way QB's last.  Denver will definitely look QB and I think this was good value for this pick.

 

4th- Nick Kwiatkoski, LB WV

 

Another LB that will likely see a lot of action after loss of Trevathan and the injury status of Smith.  

 

6th Tyrone Homles, DE Montana

 

Small school guy that seems to have a nice potential pairing with Von Miller.  Most likely a situational player, but worth the developmental pick.

 

7th- Alex McCalister, Edge and Will Parks, S and Silverberry Mouhon, DL

 

Two more DL candidates to see rotational time.  And I couldn't not take a guy named Silverberry with the last pick.  I just couldn't.

 

2 players of offense (QB, G) and 6 of defense (2LB, 2 DE, 1 DT, 1S) and a 2017 2nd rounder.

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goskins10

goskins10

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GHH will surely enjoy this mock. They have Blair going high in the 3rd round! They have Jonathan Williams, RB Arkansas as undrafted which I find very hard to believe. He has been projected from low 3rd to the 5th round. Hard (but not impossible) to see ending up undrafted.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2016/04/26/nfl-mock-draft-make-every-pick-for-all-seven-rounds.html

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PokerPacker

PokerPacker

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In terms of your draft, the Josh Ferguson pick in the 4th is what's largely dragging it down. It came with a -12.10 rating in terms of final +/-. He had an aggregate rank of 186, which was about 55 spots later than where you grabbed him in the 4th. This is coupled with the 4th being in the meaty part of the draft where reaches aren't given the same softening that is present really early or really late.

Figures. The guy I drafted because "**** it, why not an RB here?" drags down my draft.
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Wildbunny

Wildbunny

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As a courtesy please keep all mock draft related discussion as it relates to the real draft in this thread, to avoid people getting confused.

 

I will be interested to see how the first round stacks up with our "experts" though.

 

Yeah looking forward to it, even if ours a little bit wrong because of those two trades that happen lately regarding picks 1 & 2. So I believe we're gonna be a lot more wrong right now. Without those two trades we were interesting in the beginning and not that wrong I believe.

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Epochalypse

Epochalypse

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Yeah looking forward to it, even if ours a little bit wrong because of those two trades that happen lately regarding picks 1 & 2. So I believe we're gonna be a lot more wrong right now. Without those two trades we were interesting in the beginning and not that wrong I believe.

I get that but we do have the ability to trade picks and both of those trades could have been made by our GMs here.

 

I certainly don't hold that against the involved teams' GMs, but it was a situation that could have occurred given our mock draft ruleset.

 

Now if there was a player involved in the trade that would not have worked for us.

 

In the end though I don't think it's going to affect "draft scoring" all that much because the players that got jumped by the QBs aren't expected to fall far below them, and even the QBs don't add too much to the score of those who took them when they did.  The big draft score swings typically come around the mid point of the first round on, because that is where the bonafide top of draft players all shake out and now we are in the "could go here or could drop a round or two" range of prospects.

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daveakl

daveakl

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Both are still based on own perception. That's why ZR use 7 big boards to get a rather objective view of every and one player.

Both stuffs are heavily subjectives and I value smarts and instincts above everything else.

 

Would you run it without Oakman?

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TSO

TSO

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As a courtesy please keep all mock draft related discussion as it relates to the real draft in this thread, to avoid people getting confused.

 

I will be interested to see how the first round stacks up with our "experts" though.

 

Yup, well put Epoch. Everyone can consider this a Mod directive as well, so please adhere to it. All other discussion of the actual draft should go into the "Draft Discussion thread", but if any pick was made related to your own picks in this mock draft and you'd like to discuss them in relation to that, it's okay to do so here.

 

Essentially, only the mock draft participants should be posting in here and it should be about the picks they made here. Everything else, in the Draft Day Discussion thread. We're trying to make that thread the go-to for all draft-related discussion instead of having numerous threads dividing up the conversation. See my post here regarding that topic. 

 

Thanks. :)   

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Epochalypse

Epochalypse

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TSO, I think I'd ask that it be allowable for those who didn't participate to post in here so long as it was relevant to the conduct of the mock draft.

 

I know we had a number of folks that followed along as observers this year and last and we, or at least I, have no issue with them coming in and commenting on how closely or far off some of our picks on here were.

 

But I leave that up to you and the other mods of course.

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TSO

TSO

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TSO, I think I'd ask that it be allowable for those who didn't participate to post in here so long as it was relevant to the conduct of the mock draft.

I know we had a number of folks that followed along as observers this year and last and we, or at least I, have no issue with them coming in and commenting on how closely or far off some of our picks on here were.

But I leave that up to you and the other mods of course.

Sounds good, main sticking point is really that this stays about the mock draft and not about anything else, really. So it's no problem if others join in, just as long as they're relating it to the mock itself. :)

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TSO

TSO

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One more thing guys... try not to just stick around in here only discussing the Mock related stuff (unless that's really the only thing you care about). We really want everyone over in the Draft Day Discussion thread participating together, that's the main idea behind all this!

 

Thanks in advance. :)

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Epochalypse

Epochalypse

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So running tally of scoring by difference as picks get drafted..

 

49ers - +6

Eagles - +6 (kudos for same player) 

Ravens - +3, +26

Cowboys - 0 (but again kudos for same player)

Titans - -4, +17

Giants - +4

Buccaneers - +2, +18

Colts - +10

Saints - +29

Jaguars - -6

Dolphins - +1, +29

Browns - -11, +17 (and a kudos)

Bears - +55, -8, +11

Redskins - +3

Packers - +7, +32

Vikings - +1, +23

Rams - -8

Jets - +5

Cardinals - -6

Texans - -5

Broncos - +35

Raiders - -15

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goskins10

goskins10

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I had Josh targeted for the Vikings from the beginning as I thought he was the best WR in the draft. I honestly thought Treadwell would go earlier but was not taking him even if available. I really think Doctson has a chance to be something special.

 

I am a little surprised we went WR but with Garcon and Jackson's contract coming up next year, it's a good pick. I like it!

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Epochalypse

Epochalypse

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Wow, didn't expect to see Burns jump up into the first. And to think I was THIS close to trading up with Epoch for Keanu Neal before he remembered that he wanted Neal which would've given me 3 guys taken in the first round.

Speaking of 3 guys picked in the first round... ;)

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