2016 ES GMs mock draft - and we're spent.

[PokerPacker]

DA BEARS!

How's it feel to get beaten by a bunch of girls semi-annually?

[Epochalypse]

Okay I posted above how the teams that took first rounders have done so far, and now here's the players selected in the first round in our mock draft still waiting to hear their name called in the real thing...

 

3 - MYLES JACK - Chargers

12 - A'SHAWN ROBINSON - Saints

16 - ANDREW BILLINGS - Lions

17 - REGGIE RAGLAND - Falcons

19 - NOAH SPENCE - Bills

24 - JARRAN REED - Bengals

25 - MACKENSIE ALEXANDER - Steelers

26 - CODY WHITEHAIR - Seahawks

28 - CONNOR COOK - Rams

30 - EMMANUEL OGBAH - Panthers

31 - SU'A CRAVENS - Cowboys

How's it feel to get beaten by a bunch of girls semi-annually?

Well that's why they hired me away from the Redskins...to put an end to that nonsense.

[PokerPacker]

Well that's why they hired me away from the Redskins...to put an end to that nonsense.

It seems we're #1 and #2 in value so far in the draft. You'll have to do better than that if you want to overcome the enormous talent-gap, though.

[Epochalypse]

The journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step.

 

Or 3.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

So running tally of scoring by difference as picks get drafted..

 

49ers - +6

Eagles - +6 (kudos for same player) 

Ravens - +3, +26

Cowboys - 0 (but again kudos for same player)

Titans - -4, +17

Giants - +4

Buccaneers - +2, +18

Colts - +10

Saints - +29

Jaguars - -6

Dolphins - +1, +29

Browns - -11, +17 (and a kudos)

Bears - +55, -8, +11

Redskins - +3

Packers - +7, +32

Vikings - +1, +23

Rams - -8

Jets - +5

Cardinals - -6

Texans - -5

Broncos - +35

Raiders - -15

 

 

And that crazy ass first round just shows how asinine it is to argue/ applaud/ mock over where a players predicted/ taken. Either in RL or our mock.

 

Hail.  

[ComManDersFan57]

How I will be grading our mock

 

Disclaimer:
I know that the draft can't really be graded for a few more years. This exercise will be just that, an exercise that compares how well we did against the actual draft. Just because a player is taken in the first doesn’t mean he will automatically pan out. It’s also possible that an undrafted player could miraculously turn into a superstar. So, take the grades when they come out with a grain of salt.

 

Simple explanation:
I wrote a Windows desktop app that uses an algorithm I devised to compare the values of the actual picks to our picks by using the older, but still fairly reliable draft trade value chart found here: http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp    
The difference is divided by the number of picks. Trades are graded using the same chart. Future picks are graded as if they were one round lower per year. i.e.: trading for a second next year is valued the same as a mid-round third this year. The trade total is then divided by 100.

 

So far so good, but what do we do about team needs? Obviously, a team will reach if a position is a top need, so the algorithm factors this in by using this subjective chart: http://www.drafttek.com/teamneeds2016.asp  

The chart distinguishes between 34 and 43 defensive players as well as running back and wide receiver strengths to name a few. To simplify the code, the algorithm assumes that the player picked in the mock is appropriate to the need, so no penalty if you picked a 34 DE when your team primarily uses a 43.The word “subjective” really needs to be stressed here.

 

It will save me time and reduce the possibility of errors if you post or PM me a list of your picks with your team name, the pick number, player name, player position and the actual pick where your player was taken.

 

After round 1, the Eagles list is:

8. Carson Wentz, QB 2.

 

Also, list your trades something like this: Traded pick 21 for pick 22 and next year's 6th.

I expect this will be completed a few days after the draft concludes, but don't hold me to it as I do have other responsibilities.  

 

[goskins10]

How I will be grading our mock

 

Disclaimer:

I know that the draft can't really be graded for a few more years. This exercise will be just that, an exercise that compares how well we did against the actual draft. Just because a player is taken in the first doesn’t mean he will automatically pan out. It’s also possible that an undrafted player could miraculously turn into a superstar. So, take the grades when they come out with a grain of salt.

 

Simple explanation:

I wrote a Windows desktop app that uses an algorithm I devised to compare the values of the actual picks to our picks by using the older, but still fairly reliable draft trade value chart found here: http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp    

The difference is divided by the number of picks. Trades are graded using the same chart. Future picks are graded as if they were one round lower per year. i.e.: trading for a second next year is valued the same as a mid-round third this year. The trade total is then divided by 100.

 

Edit....

 

 

Thanks for taking this on!

[ComManDersFan57]

Thanks for taking this on!

You're welcome. I thought it would be fun to do despite the time it will probably take. Hopefully most of us will post their picks as requested.

[Epochalypse]

skinfan57, do you want these lists as each day finishes or just wait until the entire draft is over?

[TSO]

How I will be grading our mock

Disclaimer:

I know that the draft can't really be graded for a few more years. This exercise will be just that, an exercise that compares how well we did against the actual draft. Just because a player is taken in the first doesn’t mean he will automatically pan out. It’s also possible that an undrafted player could miraculously turn into a superstar. So, take the grades when they come out with a grain of salt.

Simple explanation:

I wrote a Windows desktop app that uses an algorithm I devised to compare the values of the actual picks to our picks by using the older, but still fairly reliable draft trade value chart found here: http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

The difference is divided by the number of picks. Trades are graded using the same chart. Future picks are graded as if they were one round lower per year. i.e.: trading for a second next year is valued the same as a mid-round third this year. The trade total is then divided by 100.

.........................................

^^ Please tell me you snorted and/or adjusted your glasses at one point during this post. It must have happened, I refuse to believe it didn't.

[Koolblue13]

Wish I could have finished this

[ComManDersFan57]

^^ Please tell me you snorted and/or adjusted your glasses at one point during this post. It must have happened, I refuse to believe it didn't.

Both. LOL!

[TSO]

Both. LOL!

Thank you, my worldview was entirely dependent on this answer.

[skinny21]

I gotta say, if the other Mike Thomas gets drafted tonight, I will be wearing a big ****-eating grin for some time.

Hoping Fackrell goes before where I picked him too. Of course, with the amount of talent available, I could see him lasting till the 3rd.

I was getting a bit nervous about Clark after seeing so many saying he'd be there for our second and possibly 3rd.

[Epochalypse]

So running tally of scoring by difference as picks get drafted..

 

49ers - +6

Eagles - +6 (kudos for same player) 

Ravens - +3, +26

Cowboys - 0 (but again kudos for same player)

Titans - -4, +17

Giants - +4

Buccaneers - +2, +18

Colts - +10

Saints - +29

Jaguars - -6

Dolphins - +1, +29

Browns - -11, +17 (and a kudos)

Bears - +55, -8, +11

Redskins - +3

Packers - +7, +32

Vikings - +1, +23

Rams - -8

Jets - +5

Cardinals - -6

Texans - -5

Broncos - +35

Raiders - -15

And now day 2..

 

Panthers - -2, +24, +65*

Chargers - +2, -33

Broncos - 0

Giants - +5, +3

Bills - +7, -20, -22

Jets - +11, +39

Falcons - -24, +42, -5, +29

Steelers - +16, -29

Redskins - +24

Chiefs - +70, +12, -42

Patriots - +15, -28

Saints - -34

Seahawks - +2, -30, +23, +14

Bengals - -25, 0 (kudos for a correct call), +87

Browns - +50, +48, -20, +75

Ravens - +18

Cowboys - -22, +126, +24, +26

Raiders - +18, +61

Bears - +68

Dolphins - +47

Vikings - +98, +21

Texans - +53, +72, -36

Lions - -23

Rams - -27

Colts - +82, -27

Eagles - +1

Titans - +100

Cardinals - +127

Buccaneers - -6

Packers - +7, +72

Jaguars - -35

49ers - -22, +48*

 

*players taken for those teams by the Bears FO...

[CommDownMan]

Jaylon Smith drafted in slot I picked him. I want a cookie.

Garnett my 3rd rounder went in first. Feeling good

[Reaper Skins]

Pats just snagged my 6th round pick in the third

[PokerPacker]

With the Hooper selection, that puts me at three-for-three so far in having guys picked earlier in the draft than where I nabbed them.

edit: Make that 4. Brissett taken in the third by the Pats. I took him at the end of the 5th.

[Epochalypse]

And Brandon Williams marks the first player taken that no one picked in our mock draft, 92 picks into the real one...

[Epochalypse]

And here is who was taken in the first 3 rounds of our mock draft that is still out there for the real one..

 

16 - ANDREW BILLINGS - Lions

28 - CONNOR COOK - Rams

37 - KENTRELL BROTHERS - 49ers

53 - RONALD BLAIR - Redskins

64 - HASSAN RIDGEWAY - Titans

66 - VADAL ALEXANDER - Chargers

69 - SCOOBY WRIGHT - Jaguars

73 - KENNETH DIXON - Dolphins

76 - CARDALE JONES - Chiefs

78 - PHAROH COOPER - Saints

79 - DEVONTAE BOOKER - Eagles

80 - JEREMY CASH - Ravens

81 - JAYRON KEARSE - Cardinals

82 - CHRISTIAN WESTERMAN - Colts

83 - JOSHUA PERRY - Jets

84 - SHAWN OAKMAN - Cowboys

85 - MIKE THOMAS - Texans

87 - SHELDON DAY - Bengals

89 - JALEN MILLS - Steelers

91 - JERALD HAWKINS - Patriots

93 - JORDAN HOWARD - Panthers

95 - ALEX COLLINS - Lions

96 - CHARLES TAPPER- Patriots

98 - DAK PRESCOTT - Broncos

[goskins10]

4 guys taken before I got them with my 5th rd pick going in the 2nd! I will take it!

 

There is some good talent still not picked. Tomorrow will be interesting.

[Epochalypse]

And after 3 rounds here is a quick rundown of how everyone is doing in relation to the real draft.

 

Browns - -11, +17, +50, +48, -20, +75 (6 for +159)

Cowboys - 0, -22, +126, +24, +26 (5 for +154)

Vikings - +1, +23, +98, +21 (4 for +143)

Bears - +55, -8, +11, +68 (4 for +126)

Cardinals - -6, +127 (2 for +121)

Packers - +7, +32, +7, +72 (4 for +118)

Titans - -4, +17, +100 (3 for +113)

Panthers - -2, +24, +65* (3 for +87)

Texans - -5, +53, +72, -36 (4 for +84)

Dolphins - +1, +29, +47 (3 for +77)

Colts - +10, +82, -27 (3 for +65)

Raiders - -15, +18, +61 (3 for +64)

Bengals - -25, 0, +87 (3 for +62)

Jets - +5, +11, +39 (3 for +55)

Ravens - +3, +26, +18 (3 for +47)

Falcons - -24, +42, -5, +29 (4 for +42)

Chiefs - +70, +12, -42 (3 for +40)

Broncos - +35, 0 (2 for +35)

49ers - +6, -22, +48* (3 for +32)

Redskins - +3, +24 (2 for +27)

Buccaneers - +2, +18, -6 (3 for +14)

Giants - +4, +5, +3 (3 for +12)

Seahawks - +2, -30, +23, +14 (4 for +9)

Eagles - +6, +1 (2 for +7)

Saints - +29, -34 (2 for -5)

Steelers - +16, -29 (2 for -13)

Patriots - +15, -28 (2 for -13)

Lions - -23 (1 for -23)

Chargers - +2, -33 (2 for -31)

Rams - -8, -27 (2 for -35)

Bills - +7, -20, -22 (3 for -35)

Jaguars - -6, -35 (2 for -41)

 

*players taken for those teams by the Bears FO...

 

Edit: This does NOT take into account players not selected in the real draft yet.

[Conn]

Blair still on the board *cough*

[Baughlin']

Off to a rough start vs the real draft. - Jack (-33) Dodd (+1!) Vadal Alexander (-32 and counting). 

However, really excited for where Myles landed. Jax is now STACKED with Fowler, Ramsey and the influx of free agents.

We could hear his name called in meaningful games for years to come, so long as his knee holds up. Feeling a bit better about his long term prospects a day later. 

I'm convinced Dodd is my Mario Edwards Jr of this year, plug him in any scheme & he'll be a beast. Happy that a 3-4 team drafted him (like my own)

Vadal was a top 5 guard like a week ago, not sure what happened, but when you draft a month out -those are the breaks. Four more rounds to make up some lost pride. 

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Blair still on the board *cough*

 

 

Someone will get a talent steal this last day with him and a good few others. 

 

This draft is utterly crazy. Can't remember one like this for a LONG time with major reaches and players lasting WAY beyond what their talent level deserves. Still a good few second/ third round talent on the board. 

 

Hail.