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Extremeskins

2016 ES GMs mock draft - and we're spent.


Epochalypse

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Pretty happy with my picks for Atlanta. I obviously badly over valued Ragland. But my top 4 picks are all gone the first 3 rounds. I think Ragland is going to the perfect team for him tough. Rex will us him in a role he excels at. A downhill thumper.

 

You can, my 3rd round will reach Round 5, and Round 4 as well...

 

I'm gonna look like crap (as if that was something new for many, I hate it when it becames publicly)

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Rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7.

 

Browns - +73 (and another kudos), -11, -21

Cowboys - +17, -6, +5 (kudos)

Vikings - -35, -51

Bears - -1, +5, +48, -64, -12

Cardinals - -163

Packers - -63 (but a kudos), +21

Titans - +2, -52, -6

Panthers - +78*, +48*, -57, +89*

Texans - +4, -121

Dolphins - +123, +22, -61

Colts - -79, +21

Raiders - +50, -28, +36, -10, -54, -77, -88

Bengals - -16, +17

Jets - -19, -2, -109

Ravens - -21, +32, -111

Falcons - +23, -56

Chiefs - +72, -63, -67

Broncos - +23, -37, +38, +16 (kudos), -12

49ers - +65*, +93*, +21*, +104*, -123, +12*, -59*, -17*

Redskins - -34, -89, -89

Buccaneers - +42, +89 (and a kudos), -37

Giants - -76, -54

Seahawks - +52, +18, +48

Eagles - +73, -57, -1, -109

Saints - -39, -32

Steelers - +122, -3, -29, -144

Patriots - -5, -32, -10, +36 (kudos)

Lions - -106, +11, +27, -57, -76, -38, -12

Chargers - +65, +100, -70, +24, -34, -168

Rams - -72, -136

Bills - -51, -9

Jaguars - +66, +8, -181

 

*players taken for those teams by the Bears FO...

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Blair off the board in the 5th. Love his value there, but think its clear he was a reach here. Still like that you chose your guy and went with him, but this draft is showing far more than usual that what we think we "know" about player value and what NFL teams actually think about player value are on two different planets.

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My 4th round isn't looking so good right now.

 

My 3/4/5 are looking bad... Feel like my 3rd will go undrafted... Can't believe it.

 

On the other hand, my Punter and my last pick Janovich both went early in the 6th... Go figures...

 

If things keeps on going this way, with at least 3 or 4 of my picks that will went undrafted, I'll officially retire from next years draft so I don't ampered those guys chances of living their dreams in the NFL as I seem to curse all of them.

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If things keeps on going this way, with at least 3 or 4 of my picks that will went undrafted, I'll officially retire from next years draft so I don't ampered those guys chances of living their dreams in the NFL as I seem to curse all of them.

On behalf of all the other GMs, please participate again next year... ;)

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Just got back from running errands. I see the Packers took Kyle Murphy while I was away. Woo! I picked the correct player for them! ... two rounds early.

If things keeps on going this way, with at least 3 or 4 of my picks that will went undrafted, I'll officially retire from next years draft so I don't ampered those guys chances of living their dreams in the NFL as I seem to curse all of them.

aww, don't let that get you down. I had 3 undrafted players last year and came back this year with two firsts and two thirds (plus trading for a second next year) despite picking near the bottom.
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Recap of my draft:

 

5. Jacksonville Jaguars - VERNON HARGREAVES III, CB, Florida - Pick 11 (-6)

47. Jacksonville Jaguars (from New Orleans Saints) - LE'RAVEN CLARK, OL, Texas Tech - Pick 82 (-35)

69. Jacksonville Jaguars - SCOOBY WRIGHT III, ILB, Arizona - Pick 250 (-181)

103. Jacksonville Jaguars- JACK ALLEN, C, Michigan St - Undrafted (-151)

146. Jacksonville Jaguars - JAMES COWSER, DE, Southern Utah - Undrafted (-108)

181. Jacksonville Jaguars - DARRELL GREENE, G, San Diego St - Undrafted (-73)

187. Jacksonville Jaguars (through Washington Redskins (from Saints)) - DREW KASER, P, Texas A&M - Pick 179 (+8)

201. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Steelers) - MIKE BERCOVICI, QB, Arizona St - Undrafted (-53)

226. Jacksonville Jaguars - LAQUAN MCGOWAN, FORCE OF NATURE, Baylor - Undrafted (-27)
242. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Washington Redskins) - ANDY JANOVICH, FB, Nebraska - Pick 176 (+66)

 

Got 5 guys that went undrafted, could have been 6 if Cleveland wasn't nice enough to pick Scooby at the end of the 7th...

That total is -560...

 

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And here are those who went undrafted in real life.

 

80 - JEREMY CASH - Ravens

84 - SHAWN OAKMAN - Cowboys

103 - JACK ALLEN - Jaguars

105 - LANDON TURNER - 49ers

116 - DOMINIQUE ALEXANDER - Colts

117 - KEYARRIS GARRETT - Bills

122 - BENIQUEZ BROWN - Bengals

124 - ERIC STRIKER - Seahawks

131 - JOSH FERGUSON - Packers

146 - JAMES COWSER - Jaguars

158 - DOMINIQUE ROBERTSON - Redskins

164 - JASON FANAIKA - Eagles

170 - JONATHAN JONES - Cardinals

176 - VICTOR OCHI - Browns

181 - DARRELL GREENE - Jaguars

182 - MORGAN BURNS - Ravens

183 - TYVIS POWELL - Buccaneers

184 - GERONIMO ALLISON - Giants

186 - DE'RUNNYA WILSON - Dolphins

190 - BRYCE WILLIAMS - Rams

193 - DEVON CAJUSTE - Titans

195 - STEPHEN ANDERSON - Texans

200 - NILE LAWRENCE-STAMPLE - Packers

201 - MIKE BERCOVICI - Jaguars

202 - LLOYD CARRIGNTON - Lions

206 - ROY ROBERTSON-HARRIS - Bears

207 - VERNON ADAMS - Jets

208 - GLENN GRONKOWSKI - Patriots

210 - CONNOR WUJCIAK - Lions

212 - TERRENCE SMITH - Cowboys

214 - MARQUEZ NORTH - Patriots

216 - PAUL MCROBERTS - Cowboys

218 - JAYDEN MICKENS - Bills

220 - JARED NORRIS - Steelers

221 - JUSTIN ZIMMER - Patriots

222- KEVIN PETERSON - Titans

223 - DARIUS LATHAM - Browns

226 - LAQUAN MCGOWAN - Jaguars

230 - TOM HACKETT - Vikings

231 - WILL ANTHONY - Dolphins

233 - LUTHER MADDY - Eagles

234 - MARSHAUN COPRICH - Raiders

237 - BRIEAN BODDY-CALHOUN - Saints

238 - BEN BRAUNECKER - Falcons

243 - ROGER LEWIS - Patriots

245 - DENVER KIRKLAND - Bengals

246 - AVERY YOUNG - Steelers

249 - JAY LEE - Dolphins

251 - AZIZ ****TU - Eagles

253 - SILVERBERRY MOUHOUN - Broncos

 

 

That's right, 50 folks we drafted went undrafted.  I'll have to see if anyone escaped without anyone on this list.  I know I didn't.

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That's right, 50 folks we drafted went undrafted.  I'll have to see if anyone escaped without anyone on this list.  I know I didn't.

 

I think its going to be skewed unfavorably towards teams that had multiple picks in the 7th round, which if I recall were a bunch of teams.  Not much difference between a 7th rounder and an undrafted guy.  :)  Even Scot arguably bombed in the 7th round last year, most do.   :)

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I will do a recap by combining my post-day 2 numbers with today's numbers as well as figuring out the undrafted after I get my kids to bed.

 

Also will put together a synopsis of my picks (Bears, as well as Panthers and 49ers) for skinfan57.

 

I ask that everyone please do so as well, or at the very least let me know and I can do it for them to ease his number crunching.

 

And before anyone feels bad about themselves after they now see how the real draft unfolded, remember all this tells us is where these folks went and says nothing for how they will turn out when they hit the field.


I think its going to be skewed unfavorably towards teams that had multiple picks in the 7th round, which if I recall were a bunch of teams.  Not much difference between a 7th rounder and an undrafted guy.  :)  Even Scot arguably bombed in the 7th round last year, most do.   :)

That's fair, but only 15 of those names were in the 7th round.

 

35 were 6th and above.

 

But when it comes to the numbers all undrafted will only count as pick 254, so they will also not be too large a negative if the 7th rounders went undrafted.

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My Packers results, in order of where they were taken in the real draft:

20(27) Darron Lee, LB

25(56) Artie Burns, CB

81(88) Austin Hooper, TE

91(163) Jacoby Brissett, QB

200(137) Kyle Murphy, OT (picked by the real Packers)

227(248) Stephen Weatherly, EDGE

Undrafted(130) Josh Ferguson, RB

Undrafted(200) Nile Lawrence-Stample, NT

Based on the draft, I got fantastic value out of Artie Burns and Jacoby Brissett. I selected Burns with a late second rounder, and it turns out he wasn't even available for the real Packers' first round pick. Jacoby Brissett was a guy I thought had good tools to be a QB in the NFL. With the run of QBs that occurred just after I took him, seems like I choose a QB in the perfect spot to get my pick of the litter who wound up being taken on day two.

Really happy with the Darron Lee pick. I had hoped he'd drop to the real Packers, but I wasn't surprised he didn't make it; too much talent. Only a difference of 7 spots, but in the first, that can be a big swing in talent.

Got a little bit of value out of Austin Hooper, though I thought he'd go a bit earlier.

Then there's Kyle Murphy, the only player I drafted who was drafted later than the slot I picked him. Seems I took him two rounds early, but he did wind up going to my team. And given that TT had already traded up to get another OT, he must've really liked Murphy to take another one. I think he'll prove to be worth more than a late 6th round pick.

Rounding out my players picked in the real draft is Stephen Weatherly, who went in the same round I picked him, but in the top half of the round instead of the bottom. Doesn't have much production, but has measurables. Wouldn't e surprised to see him wash out of the league, but it's a 7th round flier.

Then there's the "shame" of my draft, the undrafteds. Josh Ferguson is a guy I took because "**** it, I should take an RB". Should've stuck to my board, on which I had Cole Toner. Would've resulted in me taking two tackles with Murphy being the second, just like the real Packers draft.

As for Nile Lawrence-Stample, I stand by my picking of him in the 6th. I viewed him as a lesser-known sleeper talent that likely won't get drafted where his talent level would demand. Some team is gonna be very happy to sign him as a UDFA.

And, of course, I traded away this year's and next year's 4ths for a second next year. Hey, the Packers traded away the same pick!

edit: Josh Ferguson immediately scooped up in UDFA by the Colts

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These have been PMed to skinfan57

 

2016 ES Mock Draft - Minnesota Vikings                     NFL Draft Position

Rd 1   (#23)  - Josh Doctson, WR TCU                          #22 Redskins      

Rd 2   (#54)  - Germain Ifedi OT, Texas A&M                #31 Seahawks

Rd 3   (#86)  - Carl Nassib DE, Penn State                    #65 Browns

Rd 4 (#121)  - Jonathan Williams RB, Arkansas          #156 Bills

Rd 5 (#160)  - James Bradberry CB/S, Samford          #62 Panthers

Rd 6 (#180)  - Thomas Duarte WR/TE, UCLA               #231 Dolphins

Rd 7 (#230)  - Tom Hackett P, Utah                               Not Drafted  Update - Signed by the NY Jets as UDFA                          

Rd 7 (#240 & #244)  - Traded to Chicago

 

Pretty happy overall -  

 

The good:

I had 4 picks go in the first 65. Josh Doctson was one of my favorite players in the draft and not only did he go a spot before I picked him, he is now a Washington Redskins (Shouldn't I get some kind of kudos for picking the Redskins first rd pick? Clearly Scot and I are in sync...  :-)   Germain Ifedi is going to be a very good lineman for the Seahawks. He is versatile and if they can quiet his upper body he can be an all-pro. His footwork is excellent. It took till his senior year for Carl Nassib to break into a starting role but all he did then was lead the NCAA in sacks with 15. He is a beast flat out. He is a bit of a project in that he needs to learn a few more pass rush moves. But he is a tireless worker and very coachable. I believe he will prove he is not a one year wonder.

 

Pleasant Surprise: I really liked Bradberry as a Safety. He was listed most places as a CB but I believe he will move to S in the NFL. He started out at S at Arkansas State for Hugh Freeze before transferring to Samford to play CB. But when you get to the NFL you play the position that keeps you there. He has an instinct for the ball and can really cover either a slot rev or a TE but is also a sure tackler. Someone in the NFL saw what I did (at least that's my story) and he went in the 2nd rd when I picked him in the 5th.

 

The expected: I really like Jonathan Williams but am not surprised he dropped. He was injured in 2015. I am sure that scared some teams off. But had he not gotten injured he would have likely been a 2nd pick, maybe higher. Even with the NFL result I would still take him. I believe he will have a very nice NFL career if he can stay healthy.

 

I knew when I took Tom Hackett that it was likely he would go undrafted. I am surprised however that 3 other punters were taken before him. I am certain you will hear his name on Sundays. He has too much talent and is a really tough even if his stature is not that big. He is rooted in Rugby and just has that edge of an athlete. I do not regret taking him.

 

The ugly: Thomas Duarte. I took a flyer on him. He is a project for sure but one that may be worth it. He has a great body for TE at 6'2 231, very similar to Jordan Reed. He is not as fast (quite frankly not even close). He is a bit better blocker and can win on seam routes and crosses because of his size (something that will be a little harder in the NFL). He will need to run better routes. Duarte will never be a #1 anywhere but he could be a very good #2 TE and great in 2 TE sets across from a better pass catching TE. Having said all that, he could be an absolute dud. His lack of speed may keep him from playing on Sundays. Again, he was a clear project.

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