Let's talk about investing! Stock market, ETF, etc.

[PeterMP]

It's funny how the economic troubles in China upset the stock market so much, when in many ways they will be beneficial to the US as a competitor of China.   In the US, employment has been on a fairly steady upswing, economic growth is good compared to the rest of the developed world, oil and gas remain cheap.  

 

Of course, the interests of American capital and of the American worker are poorly aligned.   

 

Realistically, problems in China are an issue with respect to American capital and the American worker.

 

American capital has (in many cases) been planning on China to continue to advance and become and even better market with more consumers.

 

American workers are affected because what does China do when their economy goes bad?

 

Devalue their currency, which encourages out sourcing, decreases our labor demand and increases our trade deficit.

[Forehead]

I may have had an inadvertent market timing that worked out in my favor.  I'm moving soon, and just took an enormous loan out of my TSP account to fix up our current place for renting, moving expenses, etc.  The nice thing about the TSP loans is that it is basically fee free, the loan is $50 but after that, you're only missing the opportunity cost of a bull market.  The interest rate is low, and you pay the interest to yourself back into the TSP account anyway.

 

That loan went through last week, and now the market cratered.  I'd say this one worked out, at least for the time being.

[Elessar78]

What's shocking to me is that in the recent months, we've had the Greek crisis and then this. The Greek crisis was looming yet when things appeared to fall apart it affected the market. It's like building on a flood plain, when you can see that the levee is in disrepair and about to collapse. Investors, AFAIK, are mostly professional, institutional investors. If that's the case then why the massive selloffs in response to the Chinese crisis. Why do they make idiotic bets in countries that don't have a sound underpinning of their stock valuations? Well, I know the answer is "unbridled greed"—when the Chinese economy is surging at near 40% growth then why not go along for the ride. Which is fine, but can you really be surprised when it comes crashing? 

[Predicto]

It is more than China, markets been due for a major correction  and of course the edginess from the Fed rate intentions and economic news.

 

 

Oh, I agree.   The markets appear overvalued.   It's just odd what triggers the market up or down - it has very little to do with American economic conditions.  

[DCSaints_fan]

It's funny how the economic troubles in China upset the stock market so much, when in many ways they will be beneficial to the US as a competitor of China.   In the US, employment has been on a fairly steady upswing, economic growth is good compared to the rest of the developed world, oil and gas remain cheap.  

 

Of course, the interests of American capital and of the American worker are poorly aligned.   

 

But do we really compete with China more than we depend on China?   The industries in which China is know for, like cheap manufacturing, electornics fabrication and don't really exist much in the US anymore.   And if the Chinese economy goes south, that means increases in prices of goods they produce which the US industries use.   For example, Apple iPhone is manufactured in China by Foxconn.  So increases in production costs in China would be bad for Apple, a US company with a large US workforce

[zoony]

It's funny how the economic troubles in China upset the stock market so much, when in many ways they will be beneficial to the US as a competitor of China. In the US, employment has been on a fairly steady upswing, economic growth is good compared to the rest of the developed world, oil and gas remain cheap.

Of course, the interests of American capital and of the American worker are poorly aligned.

A weak (devalued) chinese currency hurts corporate earnings for every American company that does business there. When that currency is translated onto income statements in US dollars, the effect can be tremendous. Same is true of the Euro which has been weak this year

Also, China has been overlooked as a consumer. Sure they are the factory of the world, but the amount of foreign goods they've purchased in order to build their infrastructure is staggering. Companies like caterpillar etc. are going to be brutalized by the Chinese market drying up

I think a healthy chinese economy is what benefits the US worker the most. A stronger Chinese currency, more labor shortages in China, and growth in Chinese consumption of Buicks and backhoes is what is going to create and sustain more jobs in the United states

[Predicto]

All of that is true.   My comment was more of a philosophical one.  

 

I definitely am not part of the "zero sum" school of economic analysis.

[Elessar78]

I bought some shares of Tesla a few months back, because I really do believe in what the company is trying to do. Model 3s went on preorder today and stock has surged a bit. It'll be interesting what happens when the initial hysteria dies down and people realize they might not get their cars until 2019. But with the influx of capital, Tesla might be able to increase capacity and, while not, have the orders ready in six months also not make people wait 3 years. 

[zoony]

I bought some shares of Tesla a few months back, because I really do believe in what the company is trying to do. Model 3s went on preorder today and stock has surged a bit. It'll be interesting what happens when the initial hysteria dies down and people realize they might not get their cars until 2019. But with the influx of capital, Tesla might be able to increase capacity and, while not, have the orders ready in six months also not make people wait 3 years.

Internet nerds will tell you this is bad strategy

However I think if you are passionate about a company and what it represents then there are worse things. I've never lost money investing that way

Now cue tech boy to regurgitate bogleheads on us

[Burgold]

Also depends what your horizon is and how patient you are willing to be. It's possible that Tesla is a really interesting long play. Mind you, with other electrics coming out you may face eventually what happened with PC stocks. Everyone know desktops were going to be huge... no one quite knew which one would be the winner Dell, Compaq, Compuserv, etc.

 

A lot of people were right, but still lost money.

[Springfield]

Netflix for me.

I've been messing with the oil ETFs lately too because they've been really volatile.

[China]

The Nasdaq biotech index fund is down around 260 now from up at 340 at the end of last year.  Just bought some as it should go back up.

[Elessar78]

Internet nerds will tell you this is bad strategy

However I think if you are passionate about a company and what it represents then there are worse things. I've never lost money investing that way

Now cue tech boy to regurgitate bogleheads on us

Yeah. I am techboy-ish in my investing. I wanted to get into Tesla since they were in the VC stage, finally, after they went public I wanted to support it. It's a glorified, 2nd round, Kickstarter campaign for me. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I'm just waiting for that marijuana mutual fund. I'm not kidding and I don't even use the stuff. I'm not above making money off of it when the right investment opportunity arises though.

[Bonez3]

What happen to Yang?

[techboy]

Internet nerds will tell you this is bad strategy

[Springfield]

What happen to Yang?

I got out of it but it's been generally up, spiking at several points over the last year. It will continue that, as long as China's economy is down from what I gather.

[chipwhich]

I do wish this thread would remain active without the boggleheads just be average argument.

I like to buy stocks when they are down and out.  For the most part I only buy stocks I know and understand.  I also like the dividend stocks.  So something like Yang would stock would never be in my sandbox because 1 I don't understand it and 2 I don't invest in Chinese stocks because I don't trust any of the numbers are legit and the 2 stocks I was pushed to consider and didn't buy were DEER and GAGA.  They both were train wrecks.

 

In May of last year I bought Mattel (MAT).

 

I bought 100 shares at $26.20 a share.  $2,620.

 

The stock dropped to $22.95 when I made my next purchase.  I bought 220 shares $5,049.

Today I am at a 43% profit plus kicking off a 4.5% dividend which basically means the stock is paying me $120 every 3 months to hold it.

 

For my sandbox account I deposit a small amount each pay so I have money in there when ready to invest.

[Elessar78]

Warren Buffet made a $1,000,000 bet between him and hedge fund managers—who could get a better return over ten years.

 

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/03/04/469247400/episode-688-brilliant-vs-boring

Edited April 11, 2016 by Elessar78

[ExoDus84]

Last month, I had been looking into buying options on Pepco Holdings after fears of it's merger collapse with Exelon dropped it's price from $26.xx to $21.xx. I decided against it after a spat of negative reports came out in the days before the merger was approved. Arbitrage is risky, but had I bought options, I basically would have made a 400% return on whatever I risked. The stock jumped from ~21 to ~28 after the merger closed.

 

Fail.

[RonJeremy]

Netflix for me.

I've been messing with the oil ETFs lately too because they've been really volatile.

 

NFLX is too high right now.  Catch it under $90 at the next market dip.

 

Stay away from oil if you watch the market daily....it will make you nuts....make sure you aren't expecting to make money with oil stocks or etf's this year...or next year...or possibly in 2018.  Until supply is reduced by reduction in drilling throughout the world (LOL!) or someone of this drillers go bankrupt by these prices and don't drill anymore...oil will stay low.  We have had a little bump this year due to North America drillers stating they are cutting production (20% possibly) this year.  But the rest of the world wants to pump and put the North America companies out of business.  Be careful with energy right now.

 

Grab some UA Class A under $40 after the split last Friday and thank me next year.

[Springfield]

I bought NFLX when it was at $93.

I was invested in GUSH for a little while lately. That was fun.

[RonJeremy]

Not bad for NFLX.  Enjoy the ride...when it runs up to around $130ish/share dump it and move on.  

 

GUSH and the Gold miners etf's I saw mentioned earlier in this thread are not for the faint of heart.  Buying those investments is like gambling...don't invest more than you can afford to lose.  Especially with the Leveraged ETF's....that is not for someone looking to grow their investment...that is strictly for the thrill of figuring out if you are going to win big or lose big.  No moderate growth with those!

[RonJeremy]

I bought NFLX when it was at $93.

 

 

TIme to double down....NFLX is falling like a rock...after marketing trading around $93 right now....earnings were just released.  Earnings was better than anticipated but Revenue was lower than expected...it is dropping around $13-$14 per share.  Curious to see what happens at tomorrow morning's bell.

[Springfield]

TIme to double down....NFLX is falling like a rock...after marketing trading around $93 right now....earnings were just released. Earnings was better than anticipated but Revenue was lower than expected...it is dropping around $13-$14 per share. Curious to see what happens at tomorrow morning's bell.

As am I, cause I'm still holding it!