chipwhich Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Well, I guess what I'm saying is that it that it depends on how you rationalize it. If I remember what I read from the intelligent investor (very much about conservative, smart, long term investing, very much against speculative and market timing) you should absolutely buy into companies when you view them to be under valued and sell when you view them to be over valued. Other than long term dividend investing that's really the only non speculative way to do it. But speculating that a company has a bright future and getting in early is different (to me) then speculating that the latest sell-off is over reaction (and thinking you know more than 'the market') and buying simply because you're waiting for the market to over react in the other direction. It could probably be viewed both ways. The market is complicated. So for things like Palm and the digital organizer, people were betting on future innovation or a bright future. So people went all in at crazy prices. Then there are people that just buy solid companies when they think the price is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar78 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I would buy AAPL 1000 times out of 1000 tomorrow over NFLX. And it's not even close. And it's not because I am an AAPL fanboy. I just bought some AAPL. **** is on sale. ... very much against speculative and market timing) you should absolutely buy into companies when you view them to be under valued and sell when you view them to be over valued. . . . But this is also plays into market timing. Just a fancy way of saying buy low/sell high. The opposite of market timing isn't being shrewder or wiser (which can be impossible) about the markets, but rather being a "fundamentalist". You buy a company that you believe has good fundamentals (little or nothing of which has to do with the share price or many other metrics). Is it run well, solid management team? Is it profitable? Do you understand what they make and sell and who is buying it? Does it have unfettered access to the things it needs (man power, raw materials) to continue in it's business? If you go through the checklist and say yes to all or a lot of the key aspects then you buy. Then you hold until those fundamentals have changed. Has there anything that happened to AAPL in the last 3 months that suggest that their winning streak is over? They the Rams or the Pats? To me, all that happened was that they couldn't match ridiculous success of their previous products. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I just bought some AAPL. **** is on sale. But this is also plays into market timing. Just a fancy way of saying buy low/sell high. The opposite of market timing isn't being shrewder or wiser (which can be impossible) about the markets, but rather being a "fundamentalist". You buy a company that you believe has good fundamentals (little or nothing of which has to do with the share price or many other metrics). Is it run well, solid management team? Is it profitable? Do you understand what they make and sell and who is buying it? Does it have unfettered access to the things it needs (man power, raw materials) to continue in it's business? If you go through the checklist and say yes to all or a lot of the key aspects then you buy. Then you hold until those fundamentals have changed. Has there anything that happened to AAPL in the last 3 months that suggest that their winning streak is over? They the Rams or the Pats? To me, all that happened was that they couldn't match ridiculous success of their previous products. That was what I was trying to say. Like I said, kind of a dummy with this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Has there anything that happened to AAPL in the last 3 months that suggest that their winning streak is over? They the Rams or the Pats? To me, all that happened was that they couldn't match ridiculous success of their previous products. The one argument with AAPL, and I would say it applies to Samsung or any technology company is what is left to innovate. Phone features now are WAY overrated as compared to when the first iPhone came out. Fingerprint authentication, waterproof, dual cameras? Phones have pretty much reached their max potential as a computer. Wall Street is looking for a new great invention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar78 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I think that's what that 200B is for? They're working on the Apple car, no guarantee it'll be a hit. But maybe it also means they're in the good stage of a business life cycle. They've grown, now hold steady and collect cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Down goes AAPL...down $8/share at the open. I wouldn't buy it right now. The one argument with AAPL, and I would say it applies to Samsung or any technology company is what is left to innovate. Phone features now are WAY overrated as compared to when the first iPhone came out. Fingerprint authentication, waterproof, dual cameras? Phones have pretty much reached their max potential as a computer. Wall Street is looking for a new great invention. Exactly....until they launch a new product that is a "market disrupter" they are not going to grow as a company....need to be a market innovator with Driver-less cars....imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar78 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 (edited) Down goes AAPL...down $8/share at the open. I wouldn't buy it right now. Exactly....until they launch a new product that is a "market disrupter" they are not going to grow as a company....need to be a market innovator with Driver-less cars....imo Why wouldn't you buy it right now? Stuff is on sale (28% off from last year's high). Because you think you can get a better price tomorrow? That's market timing. Edited April 27, 2016 by Elessar78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Why wouldn't you buy it right now? Stuff is on sale (28% off from last year's high). Because you think you can get a better price tomorrow? That's market timing. My concern with buying AAPL right now is that this is a nice dip....but it could go lower fairly soon. Apple has been considered a Growth Stock forever...that is changing right now. A lot of large mutual fund companies could dump Apple out their "Large Cap Growth" Mutual funds. It may be considered a Value Stock going forward. While it is in transition from Institutional Buyers (i.e. Mutual fund companies) the price could really dip. If some of these Large Cap Growth funds dump it, it could be huge blow...probably temporary....but the price could really drop. This may not be the bottom for AAPL...and yes, this is a total timing thing....which isn't bad if you are speculating on an individual stock. Not a viable strategy with your overall portfolio of investments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Why wouldn't you buy it right now? Stuff is on sale (28% off from last year's high). Because you think you can get a better price tomorrow? That's market timing. Trading versus investing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ancalagon the Black Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Why wouldn't you buy it right now? Stuff is on sale (28% off from last year's high). Because you think you can get a better price tomorrow? That's market timing. To channel techboy, it's all market timing. You are assuming that last year's high is some sort of meaningful number that represents the "true" value of AAPL, and that's it's now discounted. Nothing wrong with that, but it's the same thing RonJeremy is doing when he is concerned that the stock can drop. Both of you have come up with a number that you think the stock is "actually" worth, and you're comparing today's price with that. Again, there is no problem with that, but you can't accuse someone else of market timing when you are essentially saying "Now is a great time to buy AAPL!" As a refresher, Cisco was an absolutely indomitable company in 2000 - it basically owned the Internet. It was at $79 and then dropped to about $55. You could have viewed this as a "sale." Today, Cisco is more dominant than ever and is a thriving company. Without any splits, its stock price is $29. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 (edited) EVERYONE market times at some point. The word is meant as a negative. If you have $1,000,000 to invest. Whether you buy a stock or a mutual fund or an index fund or a bond, you consider the market at purchase. Professional money managers do it, and so do amateurs. Professionals wouldn't shove your whole million dollars on day one, they would strategically deploy it, or time it. Just as if you were buying AAPL. If you were going to invest in it, now might be a good time to deploy a portion of your investment. Analysts tried comparing Apple to Ciscos charts 4 or 5 years ago warning of similar happenings. Cisco and Apple comparisons are like apples and oranges. Edited April 27, 2016 by chipwhich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 (edited) To channel techboy, it's all market timing. You are assuming that last year's high is some sort of meaningful number that represents the "true" value of AAPL, and that's it's now discounted. Nothing wrong with that, but it's the same thing RonJeremy is doing when he is concerned that the stock can drop. Both of you have come up with a number that you think the stock is "actually" worth, and you're comparing today's price with that. Again, there is no problem with that, but you can't accuse someone else of market timing when you are essentially saying "Now is a great time to buy AAPL!" My comment was not about what AAPL is actually worth. My point was about further eroding of the stock price due to Institutional Investors dumping AAPL, since it may no longer being considered a Large Cap Growth stock in investing circles. If Portfolio Managers of Large Cap Mutual Funds decide to sell out of AAPL it could really drop the price. I don't have a price opinion on AAPL, I was just pointing out a real risk of a further price drop. Hopefully that clears it up. EVERYONE market times at some point. The word is meant as a negative. It is not a negative if you are speculating on an individual stock. Getting in and out for a profit is a timing thing. But that is not investing...market timing is a negative when you are talking about overall investing. Edited April 27, 2016 by RonJeremy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Congratulations if you currently own FB stock....their earnings report killed it...it is up about 7% after hours. Wish I hadn't sold it when it hit $100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 (edited) i sold when it hit 75 but i had determined that at 22 it was undervalued and at 50 i could no longer determine when it was under/over valued. at 75 i jumped out. oh well. hindsight is fun, but when you have no idea if the stock is under/over valued anymore (and you have no faith long term in the company or dividends coming your way) it's time to get out Edited April 27, 2016 by tshile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I'm a dummy when it comes to this stuf, but... Isn't market timing trying to buy/sell based on how the market behaves as opposed to thinking a company is actually going to do something to legitimately increased their value? One is looking at how the market is reacting to a stock, the other is looking at how a company is planning to innovate and speculating that it might work out? Market timing would be saying apple missed their numbers huge so buy in. Speculating would be saying apple is getting into the car market (we think) and when their product hits it would be a success. As opposed to investing which is viewing a company as under/over valued and behaving accordingly, or that a company has a long stable track record and can be counted on for dividends, weathering bad economic conditions, and generally improving over the long term. ? It is still market timing in that you are trying to guess if it is a good time to get in. If other people have priced the idea that Apple is getting into the car market because they knew before you, then you are going to be wrong. The timing matters. Buying too early can be bad too. If it takes longer than you expect for them to profit from cars, you get sub-optimal returns. You then have issues on the other end if you try and sell when the stock stops representing some increase in value to get into the car market. In a broad sense, yes. You have to jump into the market at some point and will pick the time in which you sell out a particular stock or fund in the future. In this case, I am speculating with one stock. When I was speaking about market timing above, I was referring to selling your portfolio when you have a dip in the market and then try to buy everything back when the market goes up and selling at the next dip instead of just holding your portfolio the whole time. Studies have shown selling out of every investment when the market dips and then getting back in when the market goes up really costs you in the long run. Hopefully this clears it up a little. I have one stock (XON) that I plan to hold for at least a year that I am speculating that it will go up hopefully , but I also have a portfolio of investments (other stocks, mutual funds, etf's, municipal bonds, etc.) that I will be holding for the next 20 years regardless of what the market is doing. I won't be trying to time the selling and rebuying of those investments. I will just be holding them. And to contrast it further, you probably won't sell those stocks that you are holding for the next 20+ years based on what you think the stock market is going to do at some specific point in time in the future. Lots of people sell stocks even when they expect the market near and longer term to go up because the risk is not worth it to them. That isn't market timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted April 28, 2016 Author Share Posted April 28, 2016 Sure wish I didn't sell GUSH after it reverse split earlier this month. Oh well, such is life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 i sold when it hit 75 but i had determined that at 22 it was undervalued and at 50 i could no longer determine when it was under/over valued. at 75 i jumped out. oh well. hindsight is fun, but when you have no idea if the stock is under/over valued anymore (and you have no faith long term in the company or dividends coming your way) it's time to get out That is a nice profit. You sold it when you felt it was a good time....don't look back! I need to take me own advice...I know! As my Grandfather used to say "you never go broke selling something for a profit"...simplistic view...but not a bad way to look at it. Sure wish I didn't sell GUSH after it reverse split earlier this month. Oh well, such is life. Yeah, that has been killing it the last month and half. I have been watching it lately....as the price at the pump rises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Amazon beat earnings....it is up 11% in after hours trading! Congrat's if you own Amazon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 All the talk about Apple, Bershire Hathaway just took a $1B position in it http://www.wsj.com/articles/buffetts-berkshire-takes-1-billion-position-in-apple-1463400389 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted May 16, 2016 Author Share Posted May 16, 2016 All the talk about Apple, Bershire Hathaway just took a $1B position in it http://www.wsj.com/articles/buffetts-berkshire-takes-1-billion-position-in-apple-1463400389 It's pretty cheap right now, comparatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Just sold my house and have way too much money sitting in my bank account. Normally I just invest in mutual funds but with the market being so strong right now, I'm not sure I want to do that. Open to any suggestions... Met with a financial advisor from Schwab today. She suggested opening a Schwab Intelligent Account (all ETFs), keeping an eye on the market (which she thinks is going to be volatile over the next few months), and investing in increments after big drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 Depending on what happens Tuesday, the market might not be so stable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 53 minutes ago, Springfield said: Depending on what happens Tuesday, the market might not be so stable. Get in on Monday when it's at the low point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 59 minutes ago, Springfield said: Depending on what happens Tuesday, the market might not be so stable. That's what she indicated. She specifically said if Trump wins that the market will drop significantly. Not a surprise to me except that I'm in TX (just moved from NoVA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Why am I Mr. Pink? Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Does anyone have any thoughts on Alibaba? Currently selling at 90.56 and trending up with a 3 month high of 108.4 in October. 3 month low was this past Dec 23 at 86.79. I have approx 24k sitting in a crappy ass 401k in which I have actually lost approx $600 so far this year. My job does not match or offer any 401k incentives. Should I close my 401k and move the money to 25% Alibaba, 25% Sun/One Voice, 25% exxon, 25% US weapon makers? Can I just close my 401k and move the money without penalty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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