Burgold Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 9 hours ago, tshile said: This wouldn't be the first btc bubble to bust. I wish I felt comfortable giving advice, or acting on it myself. But I don't. Yeah, that's why I'm sitting on the sidelines. It wouldn't be the first investment opportunity I missed if it is THE ONE and it won't be the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Bitcoin is crap. Some lucky people made a killing off of it. I put in $250 and it got up to $900 so that was nice. Somebody is going to get ruined with that nonsense though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 I’ve been wondering what the next bubble will be to pop. I assume that there will be a correction. I don’t quite know what bubble we have is, though. Debt? I kinda feel like the whole market is in a bubble at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 11/22/2017 at 3:43 PM, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: Bitcoin is crap. Some lucky people made a killing off of it. I put in $250 and it got up to $900 so that was nice. Somebody is going to get ruined with that nonsense though. Did the same with bitcoin, bought one in 2011 for $45, sold it in 2014 for $1000. Needed the money badly at the time, but it feels like tulip mania to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 If you're looking for something interesting to bet on short term, look at medical supply shortages in relation to the devastation in puerto rico. It was a major producer. Look for articles. Find a company outside of PR that produces iv bags and syringes, that can ramp up production. Or find an ETF. Bet on it for the next year or two. I haven't done the research because I'm not willing to sell current positions and can't put more money in right now, as I'm going through a lengthy loan process So, research is on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Springfield said: I’ve been wondering what the next bubble will be to pop. I assume that there will be a correction. I don’t quite know what bubble we have is, though. Debt? I kinda feel like the whole market is in a bubble at this point. There is always a pending correction. Question is always when. Why would now be a bubble? Because it's at the point where the last bubble popped? Need more than that to make a case. Then it was shady lending and out of control real estate. The dc metro area is boasting a return to those prices but research on housing prices adjusting for inflation shows we're back at 2004 levels, not 2007. Also, while banking regulation post 2007 is being dismantled, it hasn't been done fast enough to be an impact now. Lending is still tight, I'm going through it. It's nothing like in 2008 when I bought, not even close. My personal opinion, based on nothing other than thinking I'm smarter than I am, is that the bubble is about to be created. Deregulation and people feeling good leads to cutting corners to get and edge on profits and eventually that chicken comes home. I'm watching consumer debt and consumer savings and other aspects of deleveraging. Towards the middle of crisis savings and debt had reversed and were back at 1980 levels. We're seeing it reverse again now. Also watch home prices to rent prices ratio. Watch production of chemicals (the stuff used to make all the stuff we buy), and watch framing lumber sales. All are increasing and show real positives for the future. I expect a 2-4 year surge in things.... I've geared up for that with our stocks, Ira, and 401ks. I've been coasting for 2 years on economic reading, time to make it a daily task again. Edited December 30, 2017 by tshile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I sold about 15% of my portfolio today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Quick rant: Tesla is a ponzi scheme and it makes no sense its stock is trading where it is and ford is where it is I'm convinced hedge funds are simply betting on musk's ability to con the American people, not teslas fundamentals. They're a ponzi scheme praying on marketing and hype. **** you irrational stock market 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, tshile said: Quick rant: Tesla is a ponzi scheme and it makes no sense its stock is trading where it is and ford is where it is I'm convinced hedge funds are simply betting on musk's ability to con the American people, not teslas fundamentals. They're a ponzi scheme praying on marketing and hype. **** you irrational stock market 1. “Ponzi scheme” is way overused. 2. Teslas, the cars, are ****ing amazing. If Musk can figure out his production issues, he’ll sell a zillion of them. The company also has a number of other income streams, such as batteries that power your house in the event of power outages. Meantime, Ford as a company almost died ten years ago, but made no changes in response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said: 1. “Ponzi scheme” is way overused. 2. Teslas, the cars, are ****ing amazing. If Musk can figure out his production issues, he’ll sell a zillion of them. The company also has a number of other income streams, such as batteries that power your house in the event of power outages. Meantime, Ford as a company almost died ten years ago, but made no changes in response. He's taking money from people and promising future product, to produce product others have paid for but the cash is gone. The company is hemorrhaging cash. The products he builds have tons of problems. Ford has made tons of changes. Buy hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 I think that there will be a growing market in electric cars going forward. Affordability is the key. Teslas are status symbols. I don’t understand how Tesla’s stock is so expensive though. I don’t understand how cheap Apple is compaired to the amount of money they have on hand. I don’t understand. One thing I’ve come to understand over the last few years, is that if there is a stock that looks “hot”, it’s already too late. You’re going to lose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 hours ago, tshile said: Why would now be a bubble? Because it's at the point where the last bubble popped? Need more than that to make a case. The bubble is (and has for decades now) in consumption by the American consumer (fueled by US federal debt) where we consume more than we can ever actually afford to pay for. At times, it becomes focused in a particular region (e.g. the Asian financial crisis) or market (e.g. the housing market), and then we see a clear bubble. But the underlying bubble is always present. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Speaking of debt, and I’m sure I can google this, but is there any hard and fast rule about debt? How much you should carry? Including mortgage and student loans, etc. Is there a general line of thinking regarding debt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 @PeterMP You get no argument from me. I don't know that it'll "pop" though... I would be seriously concerned if it did... Although, I have faith within 10 years out of control consumption would return regardless of how bad that bubble popped. We don't seem to learn anything, as a society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Springfield said: Speaking of debt, and I’m sure I can google this, but is there any hard and fast rule about debt? How much you should carry? Including mortgage and student loans, etc. Is there a general line of thinking regarding debt? My opinion, which has worked for me, is that there's two types of debt. Good debt and bad debt. Good debt are things like mortgages, cars, student loans... things where the debt is incurred for future investment, or to fund something you need for your life. It's unavoidable unless you're rich. You can't be dumb about incurring it (what car you buy is the easiest example, or what degree you borrow money to get.) Most standard advice is to not go over 25 (or 30)% of your home income (before taxes...) for a mortgage. That's what not to go over. So, 10-15% is much better. Otherwise everything else is very dependent. Bad debt - don't have, or get rid of it if you do. Credit card debt is the best example. Using a credit card because you can't afford what you're buying is bad.* it means youre living beyond your means. The advice I've always heard is save 10%. Whether it's savings or 401k, save 10%. That's easy to say, harder to do depending on income, but I think it's wise to adjust your living style to allow for that. I keep 3 months of expenses in the bank, including what is required to pay off our usual credit card balances ( we buy everything with credit cards, pay off every month for 0% in interest to collect reward points.) Theoretically if we both lost our jobs we could go 3 months without being in trouble. When you consider how unlikely that is (for us, we're both in high demand fields), we could stretch that money really far if one of us lost our job. Add in that we spend a lot of money on extra stuff we wouldn't need to if we were in trouble (Netflix, hulu, high TV package, hell we wouldn't need daycare if one of us was out of a job...) that money would stretch even further... Which leads me to my last point - we are a two income family, but when it comes to long term commitments we keep the monthly bills so our lowest income could pay them all. That's me. Mortgage, utilities, car payments, insurance, can all be paid for by me if she loses her job. You'll notice food isn't in there - I can't pay for food too but we have savings based on 3 months of expenses, if I'm covering that then we have plenty for food. She makes twice what I do, so we'd be absolutely fine if I lost my job. I think we're pretty conservative but it's worked wonders for us, our retirement, and our college savings. * excluding things like emergency medical expenses you have no other way to pay for. I get that those things happen, I feel sorry for those people Edited December 30, 2017 by tshile 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 (edited) hmmm I got side tracked. What I really meant to say is that i'd be weary of anyone telling you that you can, or should, do x with y% of your income without having analyzed your situation and spent time asking you about your goals. So long as you're talking about good debt, there's too many variables. There's value in services in your area, including public education. There's value in commute time and frustration and wear and tear on your vehicles. There's value in being 5 minutes away from your child - whether it's dealing with and injury at day care, or being able to make soccer practice every night. There's value in having a reliable vehicle, or a comfortable vehicle. There's value in an education beyond what your income is (at least, there should be in my opinion.) That value is very subjective. If I had to work in Fairfax, like my wife, we'd be living in Fairfax where things are way more expensive, so that we would be closer to our kid when he's in school. That would completely change our mortgage %, what 3 months of payments would be, etc (it would also greatly change my income.) Too many variables too many subjective things. You have to figure out what your goals are for your family to feel financially secure and then come up with a plan to get there. Watching my friends struggle in their 30's with finances because they were reckless in their 20's, while we're financially secure now due to our thrift in our 20's, has shown me there is immense value in being financially secure. Once you get your self on track the ammount of stress you feel just goes away. Life is much more enjoyable. Edited December 30, 2017 by tshile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) So, looking to open an online brokerage account. For me based on reviews, Schwab was best. But I have some questions. I have not been active in market mostly out of pure ignorance and everday trials of life. But looking to settle into more long term/short term financial plans. I have 403B company match which I essentially max out each year, but nothing else. Question 1) Should I do anything else for long term investment goals before starting an online brokerage account (which likely is for shorter term gains, 5-10 years)? Question 2) Don't think I can open an IRA if I have 403B if under 50, is that right? Would it even be worth it? Edited January 3, 2018 by Bonez3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Bonez - Open a Roth IRA. Definitely worth it, even if you don't get the immediate tax deduction. -___________________ I put $370 into a Robin Hood account just a couple months ago to play with - mostly just randomly throwing money at penny stocks and such. Up over $100, so about a 30% return so far. It's not much money invested, but I wanted to dip my toes in to see how I would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 I started a Robinhood account in March of 2015. I put a few bucks in here and there, in total I’ve put in $2700. April if 2017 I was down $1450. That was my low point in trading in Robinhood. Today, I’m back even for the first time since April 2015. I’ve learned a bit over the course of nearly 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 32 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said: Bonez - Open a Roth IRA. Definitely worth it, even if you don't get the immediate tax deduction. Looked into Roth more and not eligible necessarily based on some of stipulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Bonez3 said: Question 2) Don't think I can open an IRA if I have 403B if under 50, is that right? Would it even be worth it? The maximum you can contribute to an IRA is separate from the maximum for 403B, and you can contribute to both. There are people that max out both. What MIGHT hit you is that while there is no income limit to contribute to a traditional IRA, there are limits past which the contribution is not immediately tax deductible. You DO still get tax free growth, though. https://www.fidelity.com/retirement-ira/faq-ira-rules?s_tnt=91064:1:0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My company also offers 457, so I'm gonna contribute extra there. Will likely still open online brokerage account but likely have less to invest in that. So, back to question 1, what online brokerage site is best for you? What are some tips for new investor looking to be aggressive with not a lot of money relatively speaking, as most of investments will go to retirement accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) i started with optionshouse because of their fees. they sold to monstertrade, and etrade just bought them. so i now have an e trade account. i like it. but is till get my original fees. not sure what their fees are for a new person. i like their mobile app a lot. side note: bought some insy because someone suggested it last week. up 50%. not bad Edited January 3, 2018 by tshile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 @tshile Go for the 457 or try and catch lightening in a bottle over next year or 2 (ala insy) and bank some dough. After some gains, than start separate retirement account. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 yeah i got my 401k and a separate stock portfolio. in stocks i'm usually long term buy and hold. but when i do make trades there's inevitably a sum of $ that i can't do anything with, because i couldn't buy anymore shares. it's usually less than $150. so I throw it at something for fun short term gambling. up 50% in less than a week so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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