Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 So I’m thinking about getting out of the market... any tips / advice for how best to do this? Any milestones or suggested dates? Was thinking Dow at 27,000 or April, whichever comes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: So I’m thinking about getting out of the market... any tips / advice for how best to do this? Any milestones or suggested dates? Was thinking Dow at 27,000 or April, whichever comes first. You're not asking the right question... The real trick is knowing when to get back in. Consider this: Swedroe: Lessons From 2016, Part One Lesson 2: So Much of Returns Come in Very Short and Unpredictable Bursts The road to investment “hell” is paved with market-timing efforts, because so much of the long-term returns provided by the market come in short, and totally unpredictable, bursts. Last year provided the following example. From January through October, the DFA Small Value Fund (DFSVX) returned 8.0%. From November through December, it returned 18.8%. For the full year, it returned 28.3%. Two-thirds of the full year’s return happened in the last two months. These types of results are not at all unusual, For instance, the study “Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not To Generate Alpha,” which covered the 107-year period ending in 2006, found that the best 100 days (out of more than 29,000) accounted for virtually all (99.7%) of returns. Blink and you'll miss it. That being noted, should you wish to try, you'll need to find an asset that is not correlated with stocks, which won't go down when the crash you are apparently predicting kicks in. Cash would work, I guess, but doesn't return much. Bonds have a low correlation, but people are predicting those will be under pressure from rising interest rates too. Dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: So I’m thinking about getting out of the market... For ever? 6 minutes ago, techboy said: Dunno. Well Bitcoin is totally uncorrelated with the stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 53 minutes ago, Corcaigh said: For ever? I probably could but no, that’s not my plan. I foresee a substantial correction is all. If / when that happens, I’ll get back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Probably should put some in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Question now is how low will it go? I say it bottoms out around 18k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said: Question now is how low will it go? I say it bottoms out around 18k Wondering the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Damn man. I am getting hammered. I want to sell and reverse my positions but I know if I do that then the market will bounce back. Thanks Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Obama, Hillary, & The Deep State up to no good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I'm sure the Cheeto Mussolini will blame Jeff Bezos and those no good NFL players who don't stand for the anthem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Anyone have any idea why it's dropping like this? Can't be over that damn memo, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: Anyone have any idea why it's dropping like this? Can't be over that damn memo, right? Inflation is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 It's not the memo or anything overtly political. Most of the recent gains haven't been based on fundamentals; basically the whole market got overly optimistic, and knew it. Once it got a little bit of bad news (inflation) people scrambled to GTFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ* Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 It's nowhere near the same level but when Trump was speaking in Ohio today while the Dow was dropping hard I couldn't help but think of one of my favorite scenes from The Big Short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 It could be the market over-correcting a lot of the gains based purely on speculation for the past year. Hard to say for sure as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Benjamin Graham said that in the long run, the stock market is a weighing machine, but in the short run, it's a voting machine. Nobody really knows why it's falling now, but this is nothing. It's not even called a correction until it hits a 10% drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 (edited) The Fed Chairperson came out and said that the valuation are high on Friday and indicated that there might be a bubble. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/yellen-hard-to-tell-if-market-is-in-a-bubble-but-valuations-high.html Too many people have too much money that they play with in the stock market, but long term are really interested in income preservation so at the slightest sign of a down turn pull out (too much income inequality), which drives fast drops (and recoveries once they decide to put their money back in). And P/E ratios are historically high. Even after today, the Shiller ratio has them higher than any time since the late 1990s. http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ We're bound for a even a further readjustment. (caveat- the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent.) Edited February 5, 2018 by PeterMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Thanks yall, that makes more sense. In my head was thinking there's no way it was going up like that over just the tax cuts. Jesus. Gonna read more about this when I get home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 This IS a good moment for reflection, though. Stock markets have drops like this all the time. This is routine. They plunge MORE sometimes. If this is bothering you, you're probably too heavily invested in stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, techboy said: This IS a good moment for reflection, though. Stock markets have drops like this all the time. This is routine. They plunge MORE sometimes. If this is bothering you, you're probably too heavily invested in stocks. It’s botherIng me because a big drop is a near certainty and I want to time it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 After the drop, the S&P close is slightly above its value on November 30, which was a new record high at the time. 1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: and I want to time it right. And I want to win the lottery. No one knows how to time it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Corcaigh said: No one knows how to time it right. Nobody knows how to time it right that is sharing that information with other people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: It’s botherIng me because a big drop is a near certainty and I want to time it right. Again, lesson #2 http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-lessons-2016-part-1?nopaging=1 I already quoted this part, but I think it's worth highlighting again as context for the additional bit I want to highlight. Lesson 2: So Much of Returns Come in Very Short and Unpredictable Bursts The road to investment “hell” is paved with market-timing efforts, because so much of the long-term returns provided by the market come in short, and totally unpredictable, bursts. Last year provided the following example. From January through October, the DFA Small Value Fund (DFSVX) returned 8.0%. From November through December, it returned 18.8%. For the full year, it returned 28.3%. Two-thirds of the full year’s return happened in the last two months. These types of results are not at all unusual, For instance, the study “Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not To Generate Alpha,” which covered the 107-year period ending in 2006, found that the best 100 days (out of more than 29,000) accounted for virtually all (99.7%) of returns. That leads us to. Peter Lynch offered the following example. He pointed out that an investor who followed a passive investment strategy and stayed fully invested in the S&P 500 over the 40-year period beginning in 1954 would have achieved an 11.4% rate of return. If that investor missed just the best 10 months (2%), his return dropped 27%, to 8.3%. If the investor missed the best 20 months (4%), the return dropped 54%, to 6.1%. Finally, if the investor missed the best 40 months (8%), the return dropped 76%, all the way to 2.7%. Do you really believe there is anyone who can pick the best 40 months in a 40-year period? Lynch put it this way: “Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” Emphasis mine. Good luck whatever you decide to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Corcaigh said: And I want to win the lottery. No one knows how to time it right. I’m batting 1.000 so far though. Got in for the first time in 1999, pulled out in December of 2006, got back in in 2009. 7 minutes ago, techboy said: Again, lesson #2 http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-lessons-2016-part-1?nopaging=1 I AM A STOCK MARKET GOD! LARRY SWEDROE SHOULD BE KISSING MY ASS!! Edited February 5, 2018 by Sacks 'n' Stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 30 minutes ago, Corcaigh said: No one knows how to time it right. Basically, trading stocks is timing it because you are trying to figure out the direction of the stock in the short term. On the other hand, investing is when you are holding long term. There are hedge funds out there who have made money for years by trading. So you can't say that nobody knows how to time it right. We the normal folks don't know how to do it, no question about it though. We might get lucky, but that's it. One big name that has made tremendous amount of $$ is Renaissance Technologies. There are many successful traders out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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