Let's talk about investing! Stock market, ETF, etc.

[chipwhich]

NFLX was one of my big misses.  I like to buy stuff I know and stuff downtrodden.  When Netflix agreed to split off into Quickster and move the CD business and streaming business the stock tanked.  It was a steal at the end of 2011.  Buying it now is more speculative.  Lots of increasing competition.  I would rate NFLX as a sell.

[RonJeremy]

NFLX was one of my big misses.  I like to buy stuff I know and stuff downtrodden.  When Netflix agreed to split off into Quickster and move the CD business and streaming business the stock tanked.  It was a steal at the end of 2011.  Buying it now is more speculative.  Lots of increasing competition.  I would rate NFLX as a sell.

 

NFLX is trading around $97 currently.  The price target was dropped by several firms this morning.  Depending who you believe it should be between $115-$125 later this year which makes it a buy right now.  Personally, I wouldn't buy anymore of it and only hold what I have and watch it daily.  If the price hits around $115, I would drop it like a bad habit.  I would keep on eye on this though...with Amazon bringing their own Streaming Service and NFLX downgrading the numbers of forecasted subscribers....this stock is a time-bomb.  I wouldn't look at this as a long term hold.

[RonJeremy]

Here is my personal pick for 2016...XON.  I took a flyer on 200 shares back in February.  My cost basis is $29.40....so I am up about 23% so far.  I will update my ride monthly on this one to see if it was a good choice.  If you are looking to jump in on this stock try to catch it around $34-$35 which is at the 50 day moving average.  I think it has some room to run this year.  We will see.

[chipwhich]

Here is my personal pick for 2016...XON.  I took a flyer on 200 shares back in February.  My cost basis is $29.40....so I am up about 23% so far.  I will update my ride monthly on this one to see if it was a good choice.  If you are looking to jump in on this stock try to catch it around $34-$35 which is at the 50 day moving average.  I think it has some room to run this year.  We will see.

 

Well that didn't last long LOL.  XON is a stock that is purely speculative.

[RonJeremy]

Well that didn't last long LOL.  XON is a stock that is purely speculative.

 

Oh man...kiss of death when I put it out on this board...LOL!  I was up 23% and the next day was underwater on it.  Doh!  I will update it again at the beginning of the month. It might have hit a floor and stabilized for now....hopefully I am not jinxing it again....LOL!  I have not given up hope!

[Springfield]

I watched The Big Short over the weekend. Man, crazy stuff. Great movie if you're into that stuff.

[tshile]

every time my account hits a certain amount i say i want to sell everything, wait 2 weeks and buy it all back for cheap.

 

and every damn time I don't do it, it goes down for 2-3 weeks.

 

happened again this weekend. i know i'm going to finally do it one time and everything is going to sky rocket and i'll have screwed myself.

[Elessar78]

Good lord. I didn't know what Xon was, so I looked it up. That's a stock I never would've touched. You can't tell what they do off the bat and it's not even clear who their customers would be. 

[RonJeremy]

Good lord. I didn't know what Xon was, so I looked it up. That's a stock I never would've touched. You can't tell what they do off the bat and it's not even clear who their customers would be. 

 

One word:  Zika

 

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/16/the-race-to-cure-the-zika-virus-is-on-and-this-com.aspx

 

Is this the best solution for beating the Zika virus? 

However, the best solution might just belong to Intrexon (NYSE:XON), which has taken a unique approach to combatting the Zika virus.

Edited April 25, 2016 by RonJeremy

[RonJeremy]

every time my account hits a certain amount i say i want to sell everything, wait 2 weeks and buy it all back for cheap.

 

and every damn time I don't do it, it goes down for 2-3 weeks.

 

happened again this weekend. i know i'm going to finally do it one time and everything is going to sky rocket and i'll have screwed myself

 

That is exactly what is going to happen.  You will screw yourself.  Market timing is a flawed and costly strategy.  It has been proven over and over again that staying invested way out performs jumping in and out of the market and trying to time sales and purchases.  Keep up the good work.

[tshile]

That is exactly what is going to happen. You will screw yourself. Market timing is a flawed and costly strategy. It has been proven over and over again that staying invested way out performs jumping in and out of the market and trying to time sales and purchases. Keep up the good work.

Yup, I've read the books. Just frustrating

[dfitzo53]

RJ, honest question. How is what you're doing with XON different than market timing?

[chipwhich]

 

Edit.  Sorry Hillary.

Edited April 26, 2016 by chipwhich

[Elessar78]

Weird thing to post in an investing thread. But okay.

[RonJeremy]

RJ, honest question. How is what you're doing with XON different than market timing?

 

I am speculating.  I bought the stock to hold it in hopes that they find a viable solution to combating the Zika virus.  Market timing would be jumping out of the stock last week as it started to drop and then trying to buy back in once the price theoretically stabilized and was starting to go back up (which it has dipped again today, so it hasn't stabilized yet).  You may save a little downside drop in the short term but jumping in and out over the long run isn't a viable strategy.  I bought 200 shares of XON back in February and I am holding them....currently at a loss but that is only on paper at this point.  I could buy more now and lower my overall cost basis/per share cost but I am not comfortable speculating with more than 200 shares of XON. This is a buy/hold deal for the rest of this year.

[Elessar78]

This is a buy/hold deal for the rest of this year.

I don't really want to debate the point, but you're holding it for the year. What if it sees a big jump in six months say double or triple your purchase price. I feel like you'd probably sell at that point instead of waiting another six months to sell. 

[RonJeremy]

I don't really want to debate the point, but you're holding it for the year. What if it sees a big jump in six months say double or triple your purchase price. I feel like you'd probably sell at that point instead of waiting another six months to sell. 

 

Debate is good.  Yes, I would consider selling it in 6 months if I saw a large amount of appreciation....but I plan to be disciplined and reevaluate in 2017.  I could hold on to XON another 5 years.  If the stock ran up 10x its price over the next 5 years (like UA did from 2009-2014), I would kick myself for dumping it after 6 months.  So, I am trying to be disciplined and evaluate yearly.   

[PeterMP]

Debate is good.  Yes, I would consider selling it in 6 months if I saw a large amount of appreciation....but I plan to be disciplined and reevaluate in 2017.  I could hold on to XON another 5 years.  If the stock ran up 10x its price over the next 5 years (like UA did from 2009-2014), I would kick myself for dumping it after 6 months.  So, I am trying to be disciplined and evaluate yearly.   

 

But it still market timing.  You are hoping to hold to some point in the future when you will get the a good deal (as compared to other investment opportunities).

[RonJeremy]

But it still market timing.  You are hoping to hold to some point in the future when you will get the a good deal (as compared to other investment opportunities).

 

In a broad sense, yes.  You have to jump into the market at some point and will pick the time in which you sell out a particular stock or fund in the future.  In this case, I am speculating with one stock.  

 

When I was speaking about market timing above, I was referring to selling your portfolio when you have a dip in the market and then try to buy everything back when the market goes up and selling at the next dip instead of just holding your portfolio the whole time.  Studies have shown selling out of every investment when the market dips and then getting back in when the market goes up really costs you in the long run.

 

Hopefully this clears it up a little.  I have one stock (XON) that I plan to hold for at least a year that I am speculating that it will go up hopefully , but I also have a portfolio of investments (other stocks, mutual funds, etf's, municipal bonds, etc.) that I will be holding for the next 20 years regardless of what the market is doing. I won't be trying to time the selling and rebuying of those investments.  I will just be holding them.  

[Springfield]

AAPL down after earnings report nearly 8%.

Not as bad as NFLX the other day but pretty bad.

[tshile]

But it still market timing. You are hoping to hold to some point in the future when you will get the a good deal (as compared to other investment opportunities).

I'm a dummy when it comes to this stuf, but...

Isn't market timing trying to buy/sell based on how the market behaves as opposed to thinking a company is actually going to do something to legitimately increased their value? One is looking at how the market is reacting to a stock, the other is looking at how a company is planning to innovate and speculating that it might work out?

Market timing would be saying apple missed their numbers huge so buy in. Speculating would be saying apple is getting into the car market (we think) and when their product hits it would be a success.

As opposed to investing which is viewing a company as under/over valued and behaving accordingly, or that a company has a long stable track record and can be counted on for dividends, weathering bad economic conditions, and generally improving over the long term.

?

[chipwhich]

AAPL down after earnings report nearly 8%.

Not as bad as NFLX the other day but pretty bad.

 

I would buy AAPL 1000 times out of 1000 tomorrow over NFLX.  And it's not even close.  And it's not because I am an AAPL fanboy.

[tshile]

I would buy AAPL 1000 times out of 1000 tomorrow over NFLX. And it's not even close. And it's not because I am an AAPL fanboy.

If I had any idea how to evaluate what apple was truly worth I'd do it. But I don't and I have little money to play with, so they (and Google) are just too expensive for me. I do laugh when they lose value after an earnings report. They are, from my laymans perspective, a solid company and they have the cash to do whatever they want. Combined with cult like following, that would seem like a winner if you can afford their stock.

Their products are solid. Their lack of desire to enter the business market makes me think they're leaving a lot on the table, but wtf do I know?

[chipwhich]

Isn't market timing trying to buy/sell based on how the market behaves as opposed to thinking a company is actually going to do something to legitimately increased their value? One is looking at how the market is reacting to a stock, the other is looking at how a company is planning to innovate and speculating that it might work out?

 

 

I call market timing buying low and selling high, regardless of what you are buying.  It could be a mutual fund, or an index fund, or a single stock.

 

If you try and buy a stock at what you consider a low point, then dump the stock when you consider it at a high point.  It's really that simple.

If I had any idea how to evaluate what apple was truly worth I'd do it. But I don't and I have little money to play with, so they (and Google) are just too expensive for me. I do laugh when they lose value after an earnings report. They are, from my laymans perspective, a solid company and they have the cash to do whatever they want. Combined with cult like following, that would seem like a winner if you can afford their stock.

Their products are solid. Their lack of desire to enter the business market makes me think they're leaving a lot on the table, but wtf do I know?

 

Apple holds $202 Billion in cash on it's balance sheet.  It could buy its way into leadership in any sector if it chose too.

[tshile]

I call market timing buying low and selling high, regardless of what you are buying. It could be a mutual fund, or an index fund, or a single stock.

If you try and buy a stock at what you consider a low point, then dump the stock when you consider it at a high point. It's really that simple.

Well, I guess what I'm saying is that it that it depends on how you rationalize it. If I remember what I read from the intelligent investor (very much about conservative, smart, long term investing, very much against speculative and market timing) you should absolutely buy into companies when you view them to be under valued and sell when you view them to be over valued. Other than long term dividend investing that's really the only non speculative way to do it.

But speculating that a company has a bright future and getting in early is different (to me) then speculating that the latest sell-off is over reaction (and thinking you know more than 'the market') and buying simply because you're waiting for the market to over react in the other direction.

Not trying to argue because I'm the last person that should argue about this stuff. Please correct me where I'm wrong.