Thoughts on Cousins and the next few weeks

[redskins59]

Sure, Cousins threw a lot of ints, but RG3 isn't so hot in that category either.  In fact RG3 has more ints than TDs.  Can't say that about Cousins this year at least.

[KFC]

^This.

Why is 3 TDs and 3 interceptions in one game SO much worse than 0 TDs and 1 INT? Honest question here. Cousins has been raked over the coals for his INTs WAYYYY more than RG3 has been criticized for his lack of TDs. I know an INT is more damaging than a passing TD is good, but Cousins actually has a BETTER margin!

[bradboyd80]

^This.

Why is 3 TDs and 3 interceptions in one game SO much worse than 0 TDs and 1 INT? Honest question here. Cousins has been raked over the coals for his INTs WAYYYY more than RG3 has been criticized for his lack of TDs. I know an INT is more damaging than a passing TD is good, but Cousins actually has a BETTER margin!

 

You said it yourself.  An interception is more damaging (especially with our defense) than a TD is good.  

 

Fun fact:  Cousins has a total of 19 interceptions in 14 games played.  With 407 attempts, thats an interception every 21 attempts.  Griffin has 21 interceptions in 36 games.  With 1,022 attempts, thats an interception every 48 attempts.  Sorry, but I'll take a guy who protects the ball over a guy throwing an interception every 20 attempts.  Can't keep relying on the D to bail Cousins out of his mistakes. Very tough to win games that way. 

[KFC]

Any discussion of RG3 that includes pre-injury, Option-offense stats has been proven to be useless in gauging the present and future situation. Cmon man you might as well include his college stats.

The dude is not going to run that offense again. He has said he won't. The coaches have said he won't. His knee has said he won't. His dad said he wont. Let's compare his 2014 stats with K. Cousins 2014 stats.

[KFC]

Intelligent statistics that take into account INTs, TDs, etc have been posted here. Those stats punished INTs more than they rewarded TDs.

As with everything else, when these stats put Cousins above RG3 they were ignored by Griffin supporters who kept saying "yeah, the TDs were nice but the interceptions with Cousins killed us," ignoring the fact that these very stats, compiled by experts much smarter about football than you or me, HAD TAKEN THAT VERY THING INTO ACCOUNT.

[PeterKingsIllegitimateKid]

Kirk Cousins' had some of the worst body language I've ever seen on an NFL QB. He looked like one of those 10 year old kids playing (baseball, football, soccer, etc.) that melts down cause his parents push too hard. Kirk was not enjoying the game. Hopefully, he'll learn from the experience and come into camp ready to compete with RGIII. 

 

Personally, I think Kirk will have a fine NFL career, but I don't think it will be on this team. 

[redskins59]

Intelligent statistics that take into account INTs, TDs, etc have been posted here. Those stats punished INTs more than they rewarded TDs.

As with everything else, when these stats put Cousins above RG3 they were ignored by Griffin supporters who kept saying "yeah, the TDs were nice but the interceptions with Cousins killed us," ignoring the fact that these very stats, compiled by experts much smarter about football than you or me, HAD TAKEN THAT VERY THING INTO ACCOUNT.

 

You are 100% correct.  Advanced stats clearly show Kirk Cousins is more, well, advanced even AFTER ints are factored in.

People forget the sacks that RG3 loves to take, which are bigtime drive killers.  How many 3rd downs have the redskins converted after taking a sack? So the sacks have to be taken into account.  

Advanced stats take into account sacks, fumbles, ints,etc.  Interceptions are just one category of drive-killers.

[KFC]

I agree he looked beaten down whenever he made a mistake. Like I said, I hope Gruden decided that playing right now with the team's circumstances such as they were, and the drama around Bob, and the mistakes that seemed to be compounding, was detrimental to Kirk's development.

All I ask is that there is a fair and honest QB completion in camp. We'll see if Kirk has it or not.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

You said it yourself.  An interception is more damaging (especially with our defense) than a TD is good.  

 

Fun fact:  Cousins has a total of 19 interceptions in 14 games played.  With 407 attempts, thats an interception every 21 attempts.  Griffin has 21 interceptions in 36 games.  With 1,022 attempts, thats an interception every 48 attempts.  Sorry, but I'll take a guy who protects the ball over a guy throwing an interception every 20 attempts.  Can't keep relying on the D to bail Cousins out of his mistakes. Very tough to win games that way. 

 

It goes both ways...you either ask the D to come up with a few big plays or you ask them to hold a team to 17 points or less. 

 

Don't stat nerds assign a value to everything now? I'm curious if there are any analytics or metrics that measure how many points you cost yourself with interceptions. For example, if they've determined that throwing an interception is worth -4 points and leading a drive that ends in a punt is worth -0.5 points or something, you could easily compare any stat line to see who was more productive. 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

You are 100% correct.  Advanced stats clearly show Kirk Cousins is more, well, advanced even AFTER ints are factored in.

People forget the sacks that RG3 loves to take, which are bigtime drive killers.  How many 3rd downs have the redskins converted after taking a sack? So the sacks have to be taken into account.  

Advanced stats take into account sacks, fumbles, ints,etc.  Interceptions are just one category of drive-killers.

 

Very good point. 

 

I have no idea how much stock people put in these rankings, but Football Outsiders attempts to use some advanced analytics to rank the QBs and Cousins is our highest-rated QB:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

[Alexa]

I agree he looked beaten down whenever he made a mistake. Like I said, I hope Gruden decided that playing right now with the team's circumstances such as they were, and the drama around Bob, and the mistakes that seemed to be compounding, was detrimental to Kirk's development.

All I ask is that there is a fair and honest QB completion in camp. We'll see if Kirk has it or not.

I highly doubt there will be competition for the job. They're going to hand the job to Griffin again because of all the BS politics, and the owner is his BFF.

[Larry]

When Ray Perkins had Steve Young in Tampa he said he was garbage and never be a NFL QB. Today Steve young is in the HOF. I am not a RG3 or a KC supporter but I do know you have to give young QBs time before you judge them.

Does that same rule apply to Kirk?

Cause I seem to be seeing a whole lot of people announcing that Rob, after 3 seasons, just needs more time before it's fair to judge him. But that Kirk, after eight game, should be traded for a 7th round pick, and, if nobody will give us a 7th, just cut.

 

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I assume that folks are probably sick of stats, but here's some massaging I did, of the career stats for Rob and kirk. 

 

I've broken them down into stats per pass attempt, and I'll explain why. 

 

I think it's been at least twice, for example, where Rob started a game, got injured early, and Kirk came in and played like 90% of the game.  Now, that counts as a "game played" for both players, but it's really not fair to count that game towards Rob's "stats per game" column, cause he was only in for one series.  Similarly, I believe that there's been at least once where Kirk came in at the end of a game for a series or so, and it's not really fair to count those snaps as a whole game, either. 

 

So I decided to calculate stats per pass attempt, since I'm assuming that "number of pass attempts" correlates pretty closely to "number of snaps".  (And, in fact, stats per pass attempt is probably a better measure than stats per snap, anyway.) 

      
      Comp%  Yds/att TD/att  INT/att Sack/att  Fum/att  "Neg"/att
Rob    64%     7.6    3.8%    2.06%    9.59%    3.03%     14.7%
Kirk   59%    12.6    4.4%    4.66%    3.93%    1.47%     10.1%

Some things really jump off the page at me. 

 

Kirk gets close to 2/3 more yards per attempt than Rob?  (That really surprised me.  I think of kirk as a master of dink and dunk.  Get rid of the ball really quick, to avoid the sack, to me, is probably his biggest selling point.  I thought of Rob as the heave it downfield type.) 

 

Kirk gets 16% more  TDs per attempt as Rob. 

 

OTOH. Kirk throws twice INT per attempt as Rob. 

 

BUT, Rob fumbles twice as often as Kirk.  (Yes, I know, "fumbles per pass attempt" is a funny stat.  But I don't see a stat for the number of running plays each QB has participated in.  And I think that our play selection for both QBs has been pretty even.  That a QB's number of pass attempts and handoffs have been roughly equal, for both QBs.  So it's kinda close to being "fumbles per offensive play".)  

 

AND Rob gets sacked more than twice as often. 

 

"Negative Plays"/att is the (total of INTs, fumbles, and sacks) per pass attempt.  (And it looks like Rob does it 40% more than Kirk does.) 

 

Which then leads me to an even briefer summary. 

 

In a statistical comparison between Rob and Kirk, kirk gets 16% TDs per passing play, and gets 40% fewer negative plays. 

[Rskins06]

Interceptions are the only metric for gauging a developing QB, yes.

Because we have such a great QB in Bob Griffin, and such a good team, actually a team that is an INT-free QB away from a playoff berth, that the LAST thing we can afford is a young QB who throws picks. Because ALL the great QBs were INT-free in their first 16 starts. Peyton Manning only threw like 3 his entire rookie season. Or 28, forget which.

It's funny that RG3 critics can point to DOZENS of big and little things he does or can't do that make him a bad QB but the only thing I hear from Kirk Cousins detractors is that he throws picks and can't win games.

That is because if you honestly look at it, that is Kirks only REAL flaw at this point. The little Dan Snyders will not admit to this since it goes against their BFF RG3. They will even slide the scale of their expectations to support RG3. If it is a TRUE QB competition, KC will win the job and RG3 will ride the bench, which may actually benefit him.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

That is because if you honestly look at it, that is Kirks only REAL flaw at this point. The little Dan Snyders will not admit to this since it goes against their BFF RG3. They will even slide the scale of their expectations to support RG3. If it is a TRUE QB competition, KC will win the job and RG3 will ride the bench, which may actually benefit him.

Or perhaps Robert's riding the bench has already benefited him.

 

That's a possibility as well.....

[Rskins06]

When Ray Perkins had Steve Young in Tampa he said he was garbage and never be a NFL QB. Today Steve young is in the HOF. I am not a RG3 or a KC supporter but I do know you have to give young QBs time before you judge them.

Steve Young backed up Joe Montana for 4 years! I would say that was a huge bonus to learn behind JM! This team can't wait 2,3 or more years for RG3 to develop.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Esta thread no es bueno ahora.

[Rskins06]

Or perhaps Robert's riding the bench has already benefited him.

 

That's a possibility as well.....

It is definitely a possibility, not disagreeing. However, I still believe KC is much closer to being very good than RG3. Time will tell though and if I am wrong, I don't mind eating crow.

[lovemaskins]

I can't tell if you're trying to be clever or actually have a point. Either way...happy to further discuss if you have something to actually add. 

 

No thanks, you're obviously a Kirk homer so there's no point in a discussion.  If you read my previous post which I assume you didn't, you'd know my position.  So again, cheers to the return of Rex Grossman.

[Fergasun]

Cousins has better advanced stats in 2014. RG3 has the pedigree (2012) and physical attributes. Both were garbage in 2013.

QBs need to to get "it" in this league. I know us fans don't have patience.

Waiting to see if RG3 advanced stats ok this week... I would take even below average or average.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

No thanks, you're obviously a Kirk homer so there's no point in a discussion.  If you read my previous post which I assume you didn't, you'd know my position.  So again, cheers to the return of Rex Grossman.

I'm just objective. I personally don't have a preference who leads this team, just ready to have a long-term effective QB. I care much more about the Redskins than any one player.

[Cooleyfan1993]

Stop thinking that if we only give Bob Griffin another shot we're going to the playoffs. We need to recognize that we are in rebuilding mode and be comfortable developing someone (perhaps Cousins) who has the trappings to be a potential Franchise QB. Bob will never be that guy.

I think RG3 needs 1 more season (FULL season) with gruden) so we can see if he is the guy. Or at least I hope the team does this. It certainly would make me happy. And I am of the opinion that if RG3 has a full healthy season next year, he will get us to the playoffs. I don't know why I think that, but I just do

[bradboyd80]

It goes both ways...you either ask the D to come up with a few big plays or you ask them to hold a team to 17 points or less. 

 

Don't stat nerds assign a value to everything now? I'm curious if there are any analytics or metrics that measure how many points you cost yourself with interceptions. For example, if they've determined that throwing an interception is worth -4 points and leading a drive that ends in a punt is worth -0.5 points or something, you could easily compare any stat line to see who was more productive. 

I'd be very interested in that.  I'm just too lazy to go back and do all that research for it myself. LOL.  But with our defense, those turnovers turn out to be costly far too often it seems. 

[MartinC]

In my uneducated opinion, it's easier to coach a guy into avoiding interceptions than it is to make him good at reading defenses and moving the chains. 

 

Well first that sentence does not really make sense. If your good at reading defenses that should lead to the avoidance (or reduction) of interceptions. But I think I know what you mean.

 

My take is it depends on why the mistakes leading to interceptions are happening. If its about misreading coverages that can be coached, if its not understanding a play concept that can be coached, if its a mechanical issue or footwork problems leading to inaccuracy or timing being off that can be coached. If its someone who crumbles under pressure and who deflates after making mistakes or having bad things happen in games I'm not sure that can be coached.

 

So much of pro sports is about whats between the ears and some guys just don't have the mental toughness to make it. Its early in his career and Kirk could prove me wrong (I hope he does even if its not as a Redskin - he seems like a good guy) but I just don't think he has the mental edge to be a good starting NFL QB.

[MartinC]

I'm just objective. I personally don't have a preference who leads this team, just ready to have a long-term effective QB. I care much more about the Redskins than any one player.

 

I'm with you 100% here.

[skins island connection]

 I hope Gruden and co. make the smart move and keep both Cousins and Griffin.

 Bothy of their futures depend on what is done with the o-line, and both have proven they can win games, despite what some others say. When the line is fixed, we will see what we have in both, and both coming into training camp ready to battle for the starter spot, and the best man starts, period.