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RG3:1 of 9 Modern QBs to Always Be Blown Out When Throwing 38+ Passes


ncr2h

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With regards to Peyton Manning, that actually makes sense given our earlier observations about 3 being a threshold, separating elite QBs from the others.  1 38+ game could be a fluke.  It could be a guy chucking the ball into the ground 38 times while the rest of the team wins the game for him.  2 could be a fluke as well.  But if you did it 3 times, you likely had at least 1 game where you shredded the other team with your arm.  Manning had a 44 attempt, 3 TD win his rookie season and a 54 attempt, 400 yard win in his sophomore year.  Of course, the butt-fumblers still slip through the cracks, but in general if you can do it 3 times, at least 1 of them was probably legit.

 

As for RG3, cmon man.  Is this guy a franchise QB or what?  The DEFENSE scored touchdowns in 2 of the 5 games in which RG3 threw 38+!  RG3 threw 50 passes in the Lions game, and yet the defense scored just as many TDs as the offense.  And yes, we were blown out in all of those games.

 

Eagles - RG3 throws meaningless TD with 1:30 left in the 4th to make the score 27-33.  We need an onsides kick and a TD.

 

GB - Score is 38-7 until 11 minutes left in the 4th.  RG3 throws 2 TDs to make the blowout a little less blowouty

 

Lions - Skins get the ball with 3:56, down 27-17.  RG3 leads a drive which takes more than 2 minutes and results in...a field goal.  After throwing 3 straight incompletions from the 3 yard line.  Skins lose 27-20 after meaningless field goal leaves so little time to make a final drive.

 

Dallas - We lost by 15.  Blowout.

 

Carolina - Skins get the ball with 4:22 in the 4th, trailing by 15.  RG3 leads a 3 minute drive that results in a TD at...1:28, with only 2 timeouts.  Skins get the ball back with 0:20 left and no time to do anything but a hail mary.  Blow out.

 

You missed the overall point entirely. The stats give credit where it might not be due and assign blame where it might not be due because you are ignoring the context of the games and simply giving all credit for a win and all blame of a loss to the QB.

 

Tell me, why did you ignore my comments about the differences between Manning's 1st and 2nd seasons? His number of games with 38+ pass attempts dropped sharply from 8 to 2 because his surrounding team got better. A Qb having to chuck the ball a lot for his bad team is going to wrangle a win eventually, and Peyton did his rookie season. Then his 2nd season with a more complete team, then both games were wins, and 1 of those his team won. That's my point, that your stats completely ignore context.

 

You completely ignored my point about systems. Even with James doing well for the Colts, the rush game was still 19th, Peyton still had to be relied on. The Redskins, and other Shanahan teams as  I showed you, don;t have the QB throw a ton typically when the run game is an elite unit. Your stats completely ignore the run game. It's bogus.

 

As for RG3, you also ignored that 80% of the applicable games took place his first 5 weeks back from injury. 

 

In summation:

1) Your stats have no context, give wins and losses only to the QB, ignore the run game and defense and strength of schedule

2) Your stats are biased in favor of pass heavy teams and against run heavy teams, so are against RG3

3) Shanahan's QBs typically don't throw a lot when the run game is a top one

4) Your stats don't look at losses with 38+ either. Manning had 7 losses his 1st season with 38+ pass attempts, to 1 win.

5) Your stats ignore that 4 of the 5 RG3 games looked at were in the first 5 weeks back from injury

6) If you set it to 35 pass attempts, then RG3 is in the top category. 3 less attempts is not diluting.

 

Let me know when you're actually going to bother addressing these things.

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was the browns d that bad?

 

23rd in yards per game allowed, 19th in points per game allowed, 25th in pass yards allowed, 5-11 team, average strength of schedule. So not the very bottom of the barrel, but close. Obviously Weeden and their bad O were also a reason why Redskins were still favored. Kirk had a good game, definitely, as did the whole team. My point more was that strength of opponent isn't even being considered in this conversation, and when discussing QB performance to exclude such a thing is silly.

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In summation:

1) Your stats have no context, give wins and losses only to the QB, ignore the run game and defense and strength of schedule

2) Your stats are biased in favor of pass heavy teams and against run heavy teams, so are against RG3

3) Shanahan's QBs typically don't throw a lot when the run game is a top one

4) Your stats don't look at losses with 38+ either. Manning had 7 losses his 1st season with 38+ pass attempts, to 1 win.

5) Your stats ignore that 4 of the 5 RG3 games looked at were in the first 5 weeks back from injury

6) If you set it to 35 pass attempts, then RG3 is in the top category. 3 less attempts is not diluting.

 

Let me know when you're actually going to bother addressing these things.

 

(1) ...yet do a remarkable job of placing every other QB into a neat little category.  Except RG3.  And Russel Wilson.

(2) I addressed this before.  Guys like Ben and McNair get pushed up.  Guys with 5+ chances at 38+ stay where they are.  RG3 stays where he is.  Also, you haven't addressed the question of why, with such an elite throwing talent capable of shredding defenses on whim, Shanahan continues to go with a run-first gameplan.  Yet when noodle-armed Cousins gets in there, we abandon the run.  Why did we have a 2 minute drill that consisted almost entirely of runs against the Vikings?  Wasn't that the strangest 2 minute drill you've ever seen?  Why did we run it nonstop during the 2nd Eagles game even though we were down by a lot?

(3) Cousins does.

(4) Ok.  You can do a study on that but I already spent like 3 hours putting this one together.  Maybe it will yield something, maybe not.  Guys like Brees and Rodgers did it remarkably early, I do remember that much.

(5) True.  The injury is always a valid excuse for RG3 sucking this year, and I have never claimed otherwise.  If you want to go with the injury excuse, I will not argue with you.  But then we still have to think about whether we want to invest so much in a guy who already has 2 strikes against his knee.

(6) He gets into category 1 with 1 overall game, which makes him a likely bust.  We can put him right next to Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, Vince Young, and other such once-in-a-lifetime prospects that would get the same bump as Griffin.  Joey Harrington could look down on the youngsters from his new-found elite status (3 35+ passing wins), while Grossman the king would rule over them all with a whopping 5 wins in his first 2 seasons with 35+ attempts.

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Were your statistics not getting enough attention in the other 6 threads you've been posting them in? I responded in one of them...

So I've been ignoring your ridiculous cherry picked stats arguments for a couple days but I'll chime in just this once. It's the stupidest thing I've ever read. Cause and effect bud, we're a run first team and only pass a lot when we're behind, so naturally if we're losing Griffin will pass more. Want to compare that to Cousins? He has TWO ****ing career starts. It's STUPID. Ya know who looked good in his first start or two? Matt Flynn. 6 TDs in a meaningless game. Made him a ton of money for a career backup. You cannot judge a QB in two starts at all, and you certainly shouldn't be making stupid arguments based on cherry picking stats to fit your ridiculously small sample size.

Posting a massive wall of text does not make your argument well thought out or logical.

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A) Why 38? Why not 37 or 35 or 30 or 20? Why not more passes than runs?

B) how do you define "blowout". Are we going by final score only, or does being down 14 with 2:00 to go and scoring the 7 mean that its no longer a blowout and just a loss?

C) Category A is obviously your largest category. So all this stat shows is that a QB is likely to get a win in their first 2 years while throwing for 38+ passes. But just like you state there are a bunch of HOFs in there, there are a lot of busts in there as well.

Sanchez (4)

Skelton (3)

Grossman (2)

Henne (2)
Cassel (2) (note: only w/ Patriots; he has only done it once w/o the Patriots, in 2012)
Derek Anderson (2)
Griese (2)
Dilfer (2)
Aaron Brooks (2)
Jay Fiedler (2)
Todd Collins (2)
Kordell Stewart (2)
Tony Banks (2)
Shane Matthews (2)

Leftwich (1)

Garrard (1)

Jim Miller (1)

Flynn (1)

Shaun Hill (1)

McCoy (1)
Tebow (1)
Gradkowski (1)

Joey Harrington (1)

Chris Simms (1)

JP Losman (1)
Volek (1)
Freeman (1)
 
Lets not act like you found the classifier to determine the legit QBs from the busts. You've just found another way of saying RG3 is not like the rest.
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Holy ****ing ****, dude.

 

I swear, RGIII must've banged your wife for you to work THIS hard to cherry-pick THIS much.

 

You have a long post.  Hooray.  It's a long version of cherry-picked, arbitrarily-chosen, self-admitted judgement calls.  It's not a wall of text; it's a wall of crap that only continues to demonstrate your irrational vitriol towards the guy.  I'm not an RGIII supporter, I'm a Redskins supporter, so don't put me down as marking out for the guy.

 

You post the same trash in every thread. Just because you spend hours (sad, really) sifting through data until it somewhat matches your argument if you squint real hard doesn't mean that you have a point.  You just look pathetic with all of this, and that's saying something when compared to this season.

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Its not biased.

Its actually a pretty damn well thought out post and its intriguing. He said ignore rg3s category, so chill out rg3 lovers.

This makes a lot of sense in today's nfl and I think its incredibly surprising the names you see and where they are listed is so accurate.

By the way, I could play qb for the Seahawks. That team surrounding Wilson's ridiculous. Wilson wouldn't do any better than Griff if Wilson was a redskin.

 

Dude, cut the bull****.  I don't know why you try to martyr yourself when you see someone's point being attacked, but this is what I was talking about when I said people post **** just to post ****.

 

It's CLEARLY biased as you can tell from the poster's posting history.

 

*YOU* referring to anyone who disagrees as an "RGIII lover" is *YOU* having that asshole, generalizing attitude that you so fiercely oppose.

 

The rest of your post is fine, but the first part is just nails on a chalkboard.

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You obviously put a lot of research time into that..wow...I don't have the patience to do that...lol

But are we really gonna say this year was RG3's "show me" year knowing that he had no off season work or TC or preseason? Let's not mention that pesky "little"<sarcasm alert>knee surgery which was the reason for no off season work.  I would think that perhaps this upcoming season(although it's his 3rd) would be his "show me" season since he will get the benefit of an off season workout, TC and maybe some preseason reps in the games.  I think that there are too many tangibles here to declare he's reached his ceiling...I don't think it's fair to him...how many of those QB's had knee surgery and missed the entire off season, TC and pre season? Shouldn't we be comparing his numbers w/those that have had the same setbacks? He did, afterall, spend his off season trying to walk again...appreciate the time & effort but shouldn't you consider those things as playing a role in what we're seeing on the field?

**note...I went back & re read your thoughts portion and see that you did mention the surgery but not in the context of the surgery perhaps being a reason for what we're seeing on the field right now...I think people really expected too much from him this season..thinking along the lines of "if the docs say he's ready, he's ready" but there's alot of intangibles that come w/a surgery of this magnitude...every one is not Adrian Peterson(his results were NOT the norm)...non athletes take at least a year to come back from knee surgery..and some of those are still using a cane after 9-12 months...not to mention the mental aspect of an injury of this sort...he knows that if that knee doesn't hold up his career is over before it started almost...that's got to be a mind game right there...Maybe I looked at this info from different perspective...I don't think you can compare him to the others unless they, too, had major knee surgery over the off season w/no workout, TC or pre season...but that's just my opinion..

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It's no secret that RG3 has struggled while throwing the football this year. What has been discussed much less frequently is the historical context of his struggles, and what those struggles might say about his ceiling.

I reviewed the NFL passing leaders lists at espn.com from 2013 all the way back to 2002, which is the oldest year they seem to have. For each QB, listed, I looked at their career game logs and separated them into one of the following categories:

(1) Players who won at least 1 game during their first 2 seasons as a starting QB* while throwing the ball 38+ times

(2) Players who did not accomplish this feat during their first 2 seasons as a starter but accomplished it in a later season

(3) Players who never won while throwing 38+, but had at least 1 game in their career where they threw 38+ and did not get blown out**

(4) Players who have always been blown out in games where they threw 38+ passes

(5) A mysterious group of individuals who have yet to throw (or never threw) 38 passes in a game

* Note that I had to use my judgment for some of these QBs, and I tried my best to indicate any major judgment calls I made

** I defined a blowout as being down by 2+ scores with less than 2:00 to go in the 4th quarter

Here is the list, and at the bottom I will post my thoughts in the highly unlikely scenario that anybody is interested:

Category 1: Won while throwing 38+ in first 2 seasons as a starter (# of such games won)

Bulger (7)

Bledsoe (7)

Warner (6)

Luck (6)

Brady (5)

Palmer (5)

Favre (4)

Rodgers (4)

Romo sits to pee (4)

Sanchez (4)

P. Manning (3)

Brees (3)

Dalton (3)

Schaub (3) (note: counted 2008 as first season)

Kerry Collins (3)

Jake Plummer (3)

Skelton (3)

Rivers (2)

E. Manning (2)

Culpepper (2)

Brad Johnson (2)

Tannehill (2)

Stafford (2)

Grossman (2)

Henne (2)

Cassel (2) (note: only w/ Patriots; he has only done it once w/o the Patriots, in 2012)

Derek Anderson (2)

Griese (2)

Dilfer (2)

Aaron Brooks (2)

Jay Fiedler (2)

Todd Collins (2)

Kordell Stewart (2)

Tony Banks (2)

Shane Matthews (2)

Cutler (1)

Flacco (1)

Vick (1)

Brunell (1)

Trent Green (1) (note - DNP in '99; had 3 through first 2 years starting)

M. Hasselbeck (1)

J. Garcia (1)

Pennington (1)

Kitna (1)

Leftwich (1)

Garrard (1)

Frerotte (1)

Foles (1)***

Kaepernick (1)

Bradford (1)

Jim Miller (1)

Locker (1)

Flynn (1)

Manuel (1)

Shaun Hill (1)

McCoy (1)

Tebow (1)

Gradkowski (1)

T. Edwards (1)

Huard (1)

Ramsey (1)

Joey Harrington (1)

Cleo Lemon (1)

Chris Simms (1)

JP Losman (1)

Volek (1)

Freeman (1)

Geno Smith (1)***

Category 2: Won with 38+ passes, but only after first 2 starting seasons

Roethlisburger

Steve McNair

Matt Ryan

Cam Newton

Alex Smith

McCown

Delhomme

Kyle Orton

Fitzpatrick

Orlovsky

Kolb***

Matt Moore

Chris Redman

David Carr

Kelly Holcomb

Tim Rattay

AJ Feeley

Tommy Maddox

Quincy Carter

Tim Couch***

Category 3: Never won while throwing 38+, but had at least 1 game in which they were not blown out while doing so

Jason Campbell

Kellen Clemens

Christian Ponder

T. Jackson

V. Young

Brandon Weeden***

Blaine Gabbert

Seneca Wallace

Rosenfels

Boller

Brodie Croyle

Brooks Bollinger

Anthony Wright

Jamie Martin

Mike McMahon

Chad Hutchinson

Category 4: Have been blown out in every single game in which 38+ passes were thrown

Robert Griffin***

Terrelle Pryor

Curtis Painter

Brady Quinn

John Beck***

Josh Johnson

Tyler Thigpen

Ken Dorsey

Doug Johnson

Category 5: Never threw more than 38 passes

Russell Wilson

Case Keenum***

McGloin

Jamarcus Russell

*** QBs that came from college programs that run the Air Raid system according to this article: http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/4/3/4174382/nfl-draft-2013-geno-smith-air-raid-offense

General Thoughts on the Results

In general, guys in the upper half of category 1 are all HOF-type QBs, or played at that level for at least a few seasons. Among QBs who had at least 3 38+ wins in their first 2 starting seasons, the vast majority are at least good QBs. While having 2 such games appears better than having 1, there are quite a few busts scattered throughout those categories. This makes sense because even crappy QBs have a good game every now and then (Sanchez apparently had a whopping 4, and Skelton had 3). Again, having 3+ games is not a guarantee that you'll be good, but it's a pretty good sign. Having only 2 such games appears to be a big cutoff - while having exactly 2 means you are probably not a bust, it means you probably don't have a very high ceiling either. Having only 1 appears to more often mean the QB is a bust rather than a good QB.

Moving on to the next category, these guys more often than not are either outstanding game managers or outright busts. Obviously we have no idea how Matt Ryan or Cam Newton's careers will play out, but as of now that description feels more or less appropriate.

The third category includes some poor-man's game managers, like Campbell and Ponder, and a ton of busts. The fourth category looks like 100% busts (ignoring RG3 for a second and just looking at the other names). The fifth category is interesting because it includes mostly busts, but also includes Russell Wilson, who has looked good but has apparently not needed to throw very much.

My thoughts:

There's a lot of talk on this site about the ceiling of Robert Griffin III. Let's talk about his ceiling and Kirk Cousins' floor, based on the results of this list. For Griffin, the 2 year show-me period is up. The absolute best he can be, looking at this list, is a category 2 guy. That's a Roethlisburger, McNair type guy. While certainly good QBs, those aren't guys I would necessarily depend on to win me games with their arms in the playoffs. And that's a best case scenario - he could suffer the fate of Tim Couch and Kevin Kolb, two Air Raid busts (epic bust, in the case of Couch). Or worse, he could continue his current trajectory and remain in category 4 with some awful, awful quarterbacks like Curtis Painter and John Beck.

As for Cousins, his "timer" (i.e. first 2 years as a starter) hasn't even begun, as his starts have generally been one-offs. Even if we were to start his timer today, which would be exceptionally harsh compared to how I categorized everybody else, his floor is category 3 (RG3's floor is category 4) - and keep in mind that he is 2 throws away from having 2 38+ wins - he threw 37 passes in his domination of the Browns, and he needed to complete the 2 point conversion against the Falcons in order to win. So speaking realistically, it's not too much of a stretch to say that his floor is looking more like the Todd Collins (b/c they wear their jerseys similarly, duh). Rex Grossman, Brad Johnson category. His ceiling appears limitless, unless you think he's Skelton or Sanchez who are the only terrible QBs to have 3+ such games in their first 2 years.

Further confounding matters is the 2nd ACL issue. From what I understand, RG3 is one ACL away from sticking cadaver tissue in his knee, which leads to frequent complications and very likely means retirement. Cousins has a clean bill of health - no history of concussions, no significant missed time due to injury (preseason ankle appeared to be precautionary), etc. Furthermore, Cousins is the guy who appears to know how to protect his body while in the game - adjusting protections, being decisive with the football, moving within the pocket. Do we want to go all in on a guy who is 1 knee away from retirement, while at the same time having a ceiling of Ben Roethlisburger / Steve McNair?

Conclusion

Open QB competition. Don't trade Cousins until the end of 2014, if ever.

I try to be respectful of people's opinion on this board, but I have to say this is the stupidest analysis of a QB that I have ever heard of. You are telling me you are judging Roberts ceiling off of wins when he's throw 38 times? Explain to me how you think this is a good indicator or even a slightly valid argument.

The statistics people throw out there to justify their point of view is absolutely mind numbing.

If you have a balance attack you shouldn't be throwing the ball 38 times a game (btw 38 times is very random which makes this argument even more stupid). Also, we were not blown out in the eagles game or the lions game so your statistics are inaccurate.

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I wouldn't be surprised if you looked at RG3's stats before making this thread and that's why you have it at 38. 

 

He admitted as much above when he said he found during the Vikings game Griffin had 37 pass attempts and we weren't blown out. So he made it 38 so it would fit his agenda. He even changes the definition of a blowout to fit his agenda and as you have said, takes the stats in a vacuum without any context whatsoever. 

 

It's not worth your time anymore. You've exposed this sham for anyone with eyes to see. 

 Also, you haven't addressed the question of why, with such an elite throwing talent capable of shredding defenses on whim, Shanahan continues to go with a run-first gameplan. 

 

I guess he didn't think John Elway was a very good passer then either since he had run first gameplan in Denver too. Fail. 

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First thing I see this morning is this? lol Today is going to be an interesting day.

 

I am pretty sure this has been mentioned already, but I'll say it again...

 

There is much more to a blowout than what the Quarterback does. Like the game on Sunday, we had 7 turnovers, and only two were caused by my man Cousins. If we played a better team than the Falcons, that for sure would have been a blowout.

So no, RG3's ceiling isn't lower because of this, and like NC said, stop cherry picking stats. Because we all know that we can make stats say almost anything we want them to say.

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"I want to bash RG3, but I don't want to sound like a bag of douche who has no idea what I'm talking about. I know! I'll pick some arbitrary number of pass attempts and build my entire argument around it! As long as it's long, people have to love it!"

It'd be funny if it wasn't so transparent, ignorant and downright dumb. RG3 went from king to having D-Hall heat with people in a season,

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do people even realize cousins has never even played against a good NFL defense?  hes started two games, against abysmal competition and has looked ok in both.  and he gets to finish the season against more dregs of the league.  the cousins argument would hold more weight if he actually came out and played against a good defense and did well, but doubtful we ever even see that.

 

and IMO, the skins havent been "blown out" many times during griffins tenure.  in his 6 losses last year, the point differential was:

 

vs STL: -3

vs CIN: -7

vs ATL: -7

vs NYG: - 4

vs PIT: -15

vs CAR: -8

 

so last year, one blowout, which if we all remember was 100% not on griffin, because we set the record that day for passes dropped in a game (something like 11).  aside from that, every other game griffin lost last year was a one possession game.

 

this season, griff lost 10 games, heres the point differential:

 

vs PHI: -6

vs GB: -18

vs DET: -7

vs DAL: -15

vs DEN: -24

vs MIN: -7

vs PHI: -8

vs SF: -21

vs NYG: -7

vs KC: 35

 

so id say thats 5 legit blowouts this year, and 1 last season.  everything else has been a one possession game.  and griffin doesnt play defense or special teams.  even this season in two of his 10 losses the offense put up 27 and still lost. 

 

this season ended in minnesota.  we were on fire, killing that team, and completely came undone.  since then this offense as a whole has been downright dreadful.  yes even on sunday against the falcons (yards are cute, but 6 turnovers on offense are not, especially when kirk has 3 of them in his grossman like performance).

 

 

EDIT: the more i look at it, Kirk = Rex.  look at rex's game log from the last 3 games of 2010.  huge offensive passing numbers, turnovers, and losing against bad teams.  expect to see the same from kirk the next two weeks.

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I think you guys are looking at this wrong.  The stats clearly are saying, that QBs who chuck it around a lot, need help.

 

This is what I've been saying.  The play calling can't get away from the Run.  RG3 can be a beast, but we don't need HIM alone to win us games.  We need him to make plays when his number is called, but not every single play.

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1) Now, how many QBs get a blowjob on the day they attempt 38+ passes?

Answer: All of them, because they're all multi millionaires

 

2) How many ops get a blowjob for creating useless thread about arbitrary occurrences in football?

Answer: 0, because they spend too much time thinking about RG3 instead of getting laid.

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like i said in my post above, his numbers remind me of rex grossman.

 

and if i remember correctly, the shanahans love rex grossman.

 

so theres that haha.

 

 

Cousins is actually a combination of Grossman and Beck which must make the Shanahans orgasmic. He's got the movement skills of Beck but he'll throw the ball down the field like Grossman. The reality is that just like Grossman and Beck, Cousins can be a solid starter or great backup but if you think he's some kind of superstar then I'd advise you to put the crackpipe down. I gotta hand it to the "Team Kirk" guys on this board though. They are trying real hard to make the case for their guy and I respect that no matter how delusional they are. 

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One of the lamest analysis I've ever read. What boggles my mind is the OP seems to have poured over a lot of data yet didn't realize how/why to quantify the parameters they were using to justify their findings. Just say you don't like RGIII and leave it at that.

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This is an absolutely ridiculous discussion.  Are we really to the point where we need to disect QB's play based on throwing 38+/- passes in a game???  Enough already with the crazy stats!  Has anyone out there ever actually played football?  It seems to me that posts like this are indicative of the Madden/Fantasty footaball era where everything is numbers driven.

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