RG3:1 of 9 Modern QBs to Always Be Blown Out When Throwing 38+ Passes

[War Paint]

And just how many of the QB's in category one blew out a knee during their rookie season?

Biased post is biased.

Well, the knee factors in, but you also have to factor in the possibility that Robert might be permanently hindered by what happened to his knee.

[ncr2h]

do people even realize cousins has never even played against a good NFL defense?  hes started two games, against abysmal competition and has looked ok in both.  and he gets to finish the season against more dregs of the league.  the cousins argument would hold more weight if he actually came out and played against a good defense and did well, but doubtful we ever even see that.

 

and IMO, the skins havent been "blown out" many times during griffins tenure.  in his 6 losses last year, the point differential was:

 

vs STL: -3

vs CIN: -7

vs ATL: -7

vs NYG: - 4

vs PIT: -15

vs CAR: -8

 

so last year, one blowout, which if we all remember was 100% not on griffin, because we set the record that day for passes dropped in a game (something like 11).  aside from that, every other game griffin lost last year was a one possession game.

 

this season, griff lost 10 games, heres the point differential:

 

vs PHI: -6

vs GB: -18

vs DET: -7

vs DAL: -15

vs DEN: -24

vs MIN: -7

vs PHI: -8

vs SF: -21

vs NYG: -7

vs KC: 35

 

so id say thats 5 legit blowouts this year, and 1 last season.  everything else has been a one possession game.  and griffin doesnt play defense or special teams.  even this season in two of his 10 losses the offense put up 27 and still lost. 

 

this season ended in minnesota.  we were on fire, killing that team, and completely came undone.  since then this offense as a whole has been downright dreadful.  yes even on sunday against the falcons (yards are cute, but 6 turnovers on offense are not, especially when kirk has 3 of them in his grossman like performance).

 

 

EDIT: the more i look at it, Kirk = Rex.  look at rex's game log from the last 3 games of 2010.  huge offensive passing numbers, turnovers, and losing against bad teams.  expect to see the same from kirk the next two weeks.

 

...please.

 

RG3 has made his career off of padding his stats against patty-cake defenses.  We all let it slide for him, why not extend the same courtesy to Kirk?

 

In 2012, RG3 faced 4 top 10 defenses: Pittsburgh, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Carolina.  In 3 of those games, we met the "blown out" criteria that I set forth in the OP (i.e. down by more than 2 scores with 2:00 or less left in the game).  In the only remaining game, we were down by 14 with 4:00 to go.  So it was almost a blowout.  3 of those game came before he had any problems with his knee, so that excuse is out.  As for the Seattle game, Cousins came in with 5:00 left to go in the 4th, down by 7, after the team's future franchise QB had clearly just blown out his knee.

 

In 2013, RG3 has faced 2 top 10 defenses - SF and NYG.  SF?  Blowout.  NYG?  Lost by 7, offense doesn't score a TD after the opening drive of the second quarter, and scores only 2 TDs overall.  So let's hand him his goodie bag - our franchise QB didn't get blown out against the worst among the top 10 defenses of 2013.  He just lost by 7.

 

As for your analysis of blowouts, it's flawed because you give RG3 credit for his John Beck drives at the end of blowouts.  John Beck was a horrible QB who was infamous for racking up his only TDs once his team was down by a ton of points at the very end of games.  If you look at Beck's career, he has still never thrown a TD pass unless his team was down by at least 2 scores late in the 4th quarter.  

RG3 should get no credit for the TD drive at the end of the Eagles game, which would have required (a) a successful onsides kick, and ( a successful TD drive with less than a full hand of timeouts.  Expected onsides kicks are recovered about 20% of the time.  Assuming that a successful TD drive was a 50/50 proposition, the garbage time TD game us a 10% chance to win.  That's not good enough.

 

I used the same criteria for every QB, from Jamarcus Russel to Blaine Gabbert to Peyton Manning.  If RG3 is a franchise QB, why do you insist on lowering all the criteria for him?

[War Paint]

In the six NFL games Kirk has played in, he's put up Rex Grossman numbers.

 

6 games

74/118 62.7%

954 yards

7 TDs

7 INTs

3 Fumbles

It's more fair to focus on Cousins two starts and not the times he was thrown into a lost cause cold off the bench.  For his two starts, his stats are 55 of 88 (67.1%), 710 yards, 5 tds/ 3 ints, and a 99.2 QB rating. 

[truskinsfan18]

I've been saying the exact same thing.  RG3 struggles when he is forced to pass exclusively.

 

Cousins has thrown for over 35 attempts both of his starts, both which were close  games and one was a win, and has over 65% completion in these starts.

 

Cousins has the ability to become a Peyton Manning type passer.

 

RG3 will always be a Vick type passer, unless he can break the norm

 

Thank you so much for doing this research and providing a strong basis for what I've been saying all year.

[Rakpwned427]

...please.

RG3 has made his career off of padding his stats against patty-cake defenses. We all let it slide for him, why not extend the same courtesy to Kirk?

In 2012, RG3 faced 4 top 10 defenses: Pittsburgh, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Carolina. In 3 of those games, we met the "blown out" criteria that I set forth in the OP (i.e. down by more than 2 scores with 2:00 or less left in the game). In the only remaining game, we were down by 14 with 4:00 to go. So it was almost a blowout. 3 of those game came before he had any problems with his knee, so that excuse is out. As for the Seattle game, Cousins came in with 5:00 left to go in the 4th, down by 7, after the team's future franchise QB had clearly just blown out his knee.

In 2013, RG3 has faced 2 top 10 defenses - SF and NYG. SF? Blowout. NYG? Lost by 7, offense doesn't score a TD after the opening drive of the second quarter, and scores only 2 TDs overall. So let's hand him his goodie bag - our franchise QB didn't get blown out against the worst among the top 10 defenses of 2013. He just lost by 7.

As for your analysis of blowouts, it's flawed because you give RG3 credit for his John Beck drives at the end of blowouts. John Beck was a horrible QB who was infamous for racking up his only TDs once his team was down by a ton of points at the very end of games. If you look at Beck's career, he has still never thrown a TD pass unless his team was down by at least 2 scores late in the 4th quarter.

RG3 should get no credit for the TD drive at the end of the Eagles game, which would have required (a) a successful onsides kick, and ( a successful TD drive with less than a full hand of timeouts. Expected onsides kicks are recovered about 20% of the time. Assuming that a successful TD drive was a 50/50 proposition, the garbage time TD game us a 10% chance to win. That's not good enough.

I used the same criteria for every QB, from Jamarcus Russel to Blaine Gabbert to Peyton Manning. If RG3 is a franchise QB, why do you insist on lowering all the criteria for him?

Your criteria and system are garbage.

[truskinsfan18]

Not only has RG3 accuracy decreased by 5% this season, he has also been throwing a LOT of screens.

 

Rg3 only threw for over 30 attempts 4 times all of last season.  

 

He has only exceeded a YPC average over 8.0 three times all season.  Because RG3 has been asked to pass more this year, his passing abilities have decreased.

 

For comparison, Kirk Cousins had YPC of 8.9 in his first start, and 8.5 in his second start.  

 

Kirk Threw for over 35 attempts in both starts, and threw for 45 attempts against Atlanta! While also completing 64% and a YPC of 8.5 

 

[ncr2h]

 

A) Why 38? Why not 37 or 35 or 30 or 20? Why not more passes than runs?

how do you define "blowout". Are we going by final score only, or does being down 14 with 2:00 to go and scoring the 7 mean that its no longer a blowout and just a loss?

C) Category A is obviously your largest category. So all this stat shows is that a QB is likely to get a win in their first 2 years while throwing for 38+ passes. But just like you state there are a bunch of HOFs in there, there are a lot of busts in there as well.

Sanchez (4)

Skelton (3)

Grossman (2)

Henne (2)

Cassel (2) (note: only w/ Patriots; he has only done it once w/o the Patriots, in 2012)

Derek Anderson (2)

Griese (2)

Dilfer (2)

Aaron Brooks (2)

Jay Fiedler (2)

Todd Collins (2)

Kordell Stewart (2)

Tony Banks (2)

Shane Matthews (2)

Leftwich (1)

Garrard (1)

Jim Miller (1)

Flynn (1)

Shaun Hill (1)

McCoy (1)

Tebow (1)

Gradkowski (1)

Joey Harrington (1)

Chris Simms (1)

JP Losman (1)

Volek (1)

Freeman (1)

 

Lets not act like you found the classifier to determine the legit QBs from the busts. You've just found another way of saying RG3 is not like the rest.

 

 

I mentioned this in the OP, but I'd like to reiterate.

 

There is a relatively clear pattern among the guys in category 1.  If you only had 1 38+ win, like Volek and Freeman and JP Losman, you are likely to be a bust.  Very few good QBs had only 1 such win.  Brunell and Trent Green had extenuating circumstances that give them an excuse to be in this category (Brunell was on an expansion team, Green took a season off after his first year as a starter).  Among the others, the best are Flacco and Cutler - streaky QBs that usually suck, but sometimes might get you deep into the playoffs if they get something going.  Most of the rest of those QBs who only did it once are all busts.

 

The guys who had 2 38+ wins appear to be game managers, similar to the guys in category 2 (i.e. Roth and McNair).  Almost all of these guys ended up being at least very good backup QBs, with a few of them actually being good starters (one of them is an elite starter - Rivers).

 

The guys with 3 or more 38+ wins appear to all be good QBs, many of them elite, with some busts scattered in there as well.

 

So, looking at Category 1 as a single group of players would lead to the confusion that you stated.  Separating the Category 1 players into 3 distinct groups, as I've show, reveals a pretty strong pattern.

 

Finally, I think it's funny that so many people want to lower the bar to 35 for our franchise QB, RG3.  That would make him more likely to be a bust!  That would put him in the 1 Win section of Category 1, next to busts like Tim Tebow, Patrick Ramsey, etc.  So, you guys think you're helping but you're actually hurting RG3's case.  If he had a bunch of wins with 35+, I could see an argument.  But he's only got 1.  That's not a good sign.

[ncr2h]

I've been saying the exact same thing.  RG3 struggles when he is forced to pass exclusively.

 

Cousins has thrown for over 35 attempts both of his starts, both which were close  games and one was a win, and has over 65% completion in these starts.

 

Cousins has the ability to become a Peyton Manning type passer.

 

RG3 will always be a Vick type passer, unless he can break the norm

 

Thank you so much for doing this research and providing a strong basis for what I've been saying all year.

No problem man.  I'm glad we are seeing the same things.  I think RG3's legs have always been a huge part of his game, and now that he seems to run more like a 4.6 instead of a 4.3 or 4.4, defenses don't really have to respect that aspect of his game.  Instead of being the fastest guy on the field, he's got speed more like a possession WR - still fast for a QB, but most DBs are at least as fast.

[truskinsfan18]

 RG3 didn't even step into his throws last season either.  I always hear people bring up "he's just not stepping into his throws this season".  That's not true.  I watched every throw from this 16 minute video posted below (2012) and saw him truly step into his throw about one time.  He was just such an exceptional athlete last season that he could overcome his mechanical flaws by using pure arm strength. 

 

Seriously, watch this video.  Notice as he falls back nearly every time he releases the ball.  I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad thing, but something like that can affect the consistent accuracy of your pocket passing.

 

Think of it like shooting a free throw in basketball.  The form needs to be consistent.  It's hard to maintain consistent form as a passer if you are not following through on your throws by stepping into them.  

 

 

Even back in his Baylor days, he would always look like he was drifting backwards as he is releasing a throw.  Sometimes this is appropriate when facing pressure, but not when there is a clean pocket. 

 

If anyone tries to dispute this point by saying "look how accurate his completion percentage was last year", I'd point to a few things:

 

        -High percentage passes were called all season (screen, quick throws to the 1st read).

        -In 2012 he threw more than 30 attempts 4 times.  In 2013, he has already thrown over 30 attempts 10 times and once for 29 attempts.   Over a 200% increase.  

 

He can still develop into a great, consistent passer.  But at this point, Kirk is miles ahead in every category.

[KDawg]

And Luck has won 7 games while accounting for fewer than 220 yards, Griffin has won 0.  Is that more of an indictment on the surrounding talent perhaps?

 

Truth be told, our team is in bad shape.  We can only win football games one way, and that is with rg3 (or cousins) being great.

 

I mean, when Romo sits to pee and Sanchez have more than Manning and Rivers, you might want to rethink what that list is saying.  It's a team effort to win games, regardless of how much your qb is throwing.

Damnit, LB, I'm agreeing with you far too often today. Good points.

 

Surrounding cast matters. To every position. On every team.

[truskinsfan18]

RG3 has a better supporting Cast than Luck.  Stop with the BS excuses, the guy can't pass effectively without the threat of running.  It's been clearly proven throughout this year.  RG3 said he was 100% earlier in the season, so the injury excuse is out the window.

 

Look at how great our offense looked in the preseason and when KC is starting.  It's not the supporting cast.  We have a top 5 running back, top 5 WR.

[Koolblue13]

This thread is chucking it up in a blow out, but it sure is winning.

[NewCliche21]

...please.

 

RG3 has made his career off of padding his stats against patty-cake defenses.  We all let it slide for him, why not extend the same courtesy to Kirk?

 

In 2012, RG3 faced 4 top 10 defenses: Pittsburgh, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Carolina.  In 3 of those games, we met the "blown out" criteria that I set forth in the OP (i.e. down by more than 2 scores with 2:00 or less left in the game).  In the only remaining game, we were down by 14 with 4:00 to go.  So it was almost a blowout.  3 of those game came before he had any problems with his knee, so that excuse is out.  As for the Seattle game, Cousins came in with 5:00 left to go in the 4th, down by 7, after the team's future franchise QB had clearly just blown out his knee.

 

 

You are SERIOUSLY putting in Seattle?  Seriously?  A game where he was injured after throwing his second touchdown pass?  Are you ****ing kidding me?  He wasn't even playing with two minutes left.  Even if you refute it in your own post (showing that you don't even agree with you), you're just showing how little objectivity you have.

 

You are so ****ing out of your mind that you would pull ANYTHING out of your ass to bash RGIII.  I pity you, man.  I do.  Every single post of your is just bull**** trying to explain the bull**** from a previous post.  Sorry that you hate the guy.  Sorry that he ate your bird or whatever he did.

 

A lot of posters have to get off his junk and stop being fanboys, but you need to get off his ass.  You look pathetic.

[Taylor703]

RG3 has a better supporting Cast than Luck.  Stop with the BS excuses, the guy can't pass effectively without the threat of running.  It's been clearly proven throughout this year.  RG3 said he was 100% earlier in the season, so the injury excuse is out the window.

 

Look at how great our offense looked in the preseason and when KC is starting.  It's not the supporting cast.  We have a top 5 running back, top 5 WR.

You keep posting the same crap in thread after thread. I'm still trying to figure out why you have an RGIII avatar, it's quite odd actually?

[NewCliche21]

RG3 has a better supporting Cast than Luck.  Stop with the BS excuses, the guy can't pass effectively without the threat of running.  It's been clearly proven throughout this year.  RG3 said he was 100% earlier in the season, so the injury excuse is out the window.

 

Look at how great our offense looked in the preseason and when KC is starting.  It's not the supporting cast.  We have a top 5 running back, top 5 WR.

 

LOL, you think he was 100% because he said so?  He said he was fine in the Seattle game, too.

 

And you cite preseason to prove your point.  Meaning you have no point.

[truskinsfan18]

You are SERIOUSLY putting in Seattle?  Seriously?  A game where he was injured after throwing his second touchdown pass?  Are you ****ing kidding me?  He wasn't even playing with two minutes left.  Even if you refute it in your own post (showing that you don't even agree with you), you're just showing how little objectivity you have.

 

You are so ****ing out of your mind that you would pull ANYTHING out of your ass to bash RGIII.  I pity you, man.  I do.  Every single post of your is just bull**** trying to explain the bull**** from a previous post.  Sorry that you hate the guy.  Sorry that he ate your bird or whatever he did.

 

A lot of posters have to get off his junk and stop being fanboys, but you need to get off his ass.  You look pathetic.

 

Honestly your post is more ridiculous.  You didn't provide any evidence to disprove what the OP said. You resorted to childish name calling. 

 

I have yet to see someone disprove that there is a strong pattern going on in the OP. I have to agree with it.

[Taylor703]

ncr2h-

Did RGIII reject your wedding gift or something? Sheesh man you really dislike the guy.

[truskinsfan18]

You keep posting the same crap in thread after thread. I'm still trying to figure out why you have an RGIII avatar, it's quite odd actually?

 

Because I'm a fan of RG3?  That doesn't mean he doesn't suck at passing.  I hope he suceeds. 

[CrypticVillain]

I've been saying the exact same thing.  RG3 struggles when he is forced to pass exclusively.

 

Cousins has thrown for over 35 attempts both of his starts, both which were close  games and one was a win, and has over 65% completion in these starts.

 

Cousins has the ability to become a Peyton Manning type passer.

 

RG3 will always be a Vick type passer, unless he can break the norm

 

Thank you so much for doing this research and providing a strong basis for what I've been saying all year.

 

 

RG3 has a better supporting Cast than Luck.  Stop with the BS excuses, the guy can't pass effectively without the threat of running.  It's been clearly proven throughout this year.  RG3 said he was 100% earlier in the season, so the injury excuse is out the window.

 

Look at how great our offense looked in the preseason and when KC is starting.  It's not the supporting cast.  We have a top 5 running back, top 5 WR.

 

[Rakpwned427]

RG3 has a better supporting Cast than Luck. Stop with the BS excuses, the guy can't pass effectively without the threat of running. It's been clearly proven throughout this year. RG3 said he was 100% earlier in the season, so the injury excuse is out the window.

Look at how great our offense looked in the preseason and when KC is starting. It's not the supporting cast. We have a top 5 running back, top 5 WR.

So we have Pierre and Alfred (who has disappeared from games). I wouldn't consider that to be a better supporting cast than Luck.

I'm all for the best QB starting, but if you tell me you are giving up on RG3 after Kirk lighting up a Falcons defense that was lit up Geno Smith you are nuts. They started 5 rookies on defense. Also, think it's a bit ridiculous for you to bring up the offense in the preseason. Remember when Al Saunders offense looked good in preseason? Or the Ol' ball coach throwing up 409 yards of total offense in the preseason?

I refuse to side with either QB in this debate because I like them both and they are on my favorite team. I think your opinions are straight up ridiculous.

[rumplestilskin]

So the Subway commercials are off? I don't think so. RG3 will be back and hopefully so will KC1. With the brace off and an off season to refine his craft RG3 will regain the Mojo. I truly believe this is more of a small hurdle that could prove beneficial to RG3. Competition brings out the best in most athletes.  The notion that it will ruin RG3 if he isn't permanently anointed "the man" is crazy. If that is the case he doesn't belong to start in the first place. Both players regardless of draft position deserve a chance to prove who is the man. I don't really care how many throws a QB makes I only care about wins and in most cases wins are usually difficult to come by with a scrub defense.

This season cant be over soon enough.

[NewCliche21]

Honestly your post is more ridiculous.  You didn't provide any evidence to disprove what the OP said. You resorted to childish name calling. 

 

I have yet to see someone disprove that there is a strong pattern going on in the OP. I have to agree with it.

 

The fact that you wrote that second line kinda destroys your credibility with this.  Sorry man.

[Peregrine]

This all comes from a number of false assumption. 

 

False assumption #1:  That all offenses are the same, thus all QB's throw the ball 38 times in equal sitations

False assumption #2:  That the blowout is the effect of the ammount of passes thrown

False assumption #3:   Our defense doesnt exist

 

Assumption #1 is false because the Redskins run a run heavy offense, whereas a team like the colts, or Broncos, does not.  For their team to be successful they HAVE to pass the ball a lot.  For us to be, we have to run it a lot.  It is our gameplan.  Therefore, when Peyton Manning throws the ball 40 times in a game, it is because they are having a normal football game.  When we throw the ball 40 times in a game, its because we are down by SO much that we are desperate for points in a big hurry. 

 

Assumption #2 ties into assumption #1, it assumes the 40 passes thrown is the cause, when it actually it is the effect.  It is a reaction to being blown out, by already being down by 30 points.  Take the chiefs gave as an example, we were down by 31 points in 20 minutes, we had no choice but to give up on the running game.

 

Assumption #3 ties into #2.  It assumes that the Redskins defense does not exist, or is normal and customary.  In a way it doesnt exist because its so bad.  But criticizing a QB for a blowout does not take into account how many points the defense allowed.  If a defense allows 52 points, and the QB throws it 40 times, leading his team to 42 points, he has done an EXCELLENT job at QB.  But, its a "blowout" because they lost by 10 points, none of it was a reflection of his play.  A much more accurate reading would be to judge a QB by the number of points the offense put up compared to the number of throws he made, and even that is highly flawed.

 

So in the end I think this is a good example of how a lot of statistics with poor starting assumption makes for meaningless results.

 

That assumption is that either a blowout is the effect of throwing too many passes(why 38, why not 37?), or that the reason

 

That the reason we were blown out is because we threw too many passes

Or that RG3 is not capable of winning a game where he has thrown too many passes.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

>define the paramaters to reach a predefined conclusion

>argue that your premise is irrefutable based on said parameters

>extract a single data point and group it with other data points divorced of any context whatsoever

 

Statistical "analysis", brought to you by Atlanta Skins Fan, because when you can't actually scout a prospect's skillset, you have to misuse stats.

 

Also lol @ using the Seattle game where a 70% RGIII put up 14 in a quarter.

[CapnRedskins]

Upon reading the OP I thought this was a well thought-out and intelligent post. However, upon reading further in the thread I've realized it's just a cleverly disguised, "I hate RG3 and love Kirk Cousins" thread with some random stats thrown in.

 

I don't think I've ever seen so much effort put in to hating one man.