RG3:1 of 9 Modern QBs to Always Be Blown Out When Throwing 38+ Passes

[Rakpwned427]

Agree 100%.

Naturally.

[ncr2h]

Perhaps because of a porous defense we were playing so far behind we were forced to throw... a lot...

...that's kind of the point.

 

I'm not interested in games where we won because we played good defense, or because we could run the ball down the other team's throat.  I'm interested in the games where we had to rely solely on the arm of our franchise QB in order to win the game.  I used the same metric for other QBs, and there are plenty of guys who were in worse situations than RG3 but still managed to win a game or 2 with their arms.

[Rakpwned427]

...that's kind of the point.

I'm not interested in games where we won because we played good defense, or because we could run the ball down the other team's throat. I'm interested in the games where we had to rely solely on the arm of our franchise QB in order to win the game. I used the same metric for other QBs, and there are plenty of guys who were in worse situations than RG3 but still managed to win a game or 2 with their arms.

You don't know and cant say if they won those games with their arms just because they threw 38 times.

[ncr2h]

You don't know and cant say if they won those games with their arms just because they threw 38 times.

You're right, which is why in my analysis I pointed out that merely winning 1 such game was more indicative of being a bust than being good.  Winning 3 such games was a good predictor that the QB could become elite, likely because if you're winning that many, at least 1 or 2 of them was likely due to the arm, and not the running game or defense or special teams.  Geno Smith and Tim Tebow can win 1.  But can they win 3?

[truskinsfan18]

You're right, which is why in my analysis I pointed out that merely winning 1 such game was more indicative of being a bust than being good.  Winning 3 such games was a good predictor that the QB could become elite, likely because if you're winning that many, at least 1 or 2 of them was likely due to the arm, and not the running game or defense or special teams.  Geno Smith and Tim Tebow can win 1.  But can they win 3?

 

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Garcon More Wine]

Yes, I thought he was outstanding in 2012.  In hindsight, we did not ask him to do very much with his arm.  Then he blew out his knee for the 2nd time, which seriously altered the calculus - the guy is probably not going to have a 10-15 year career.  His only shot at a career that long is to rely almost exclusively on his arm, which takes away everything he does well and emphasizes what he does poorly.

 

fair enough.  i still think i saw enough of him throwing to know that when hes healthy and has an offseason he can get back to being a great passer.  you dont lead the entire NFL in YPA if throwing isnt your strong suit. 

 

and obviously we ran/run a run first offense and will continue that as long as shanahan is here.  so its tough to judge whether or not he can be successful in a throw first offense cause weve yet to see him in one.  this year he was FORCED to throw because we fell behind so badly, and most teams that are forced to throw that much because of being in a hole do not play well.

 

drew brees last year is the best example ever.  43 TDs, 19 INTs, QB rating of 90+, 5000+ yards, and his team was 7-9.  because he had a dreadful defense and was playing catchup constantly (similar same situation here).  and hes one of the best QBs in the league (and arguably the best QB in the NFC). 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

This reminds of that great thread that claimed the McElroy kid out of Bama was gonna be an elite QB. That system failed horribly, and the criteria was much more loigcal.

I don't need some lame stats to tell me that Griff can be an elite QB. He's done it. Where? On the freaking football field.

I like Kirk, but I have no reason to believe that he can be an elite QB. Why? Cause he's never done it. And there's nothing elite about his play in any of the games in which he has started. Is it a small sample size? Sure. But I believe what I see on the field.

I can understand when people question whether Griff will be the same post-injury. It's a logical, sane debate. But when people question who has the higher ceiling in terms of talent between the two, it comes off as trolling. A blind man can see that Griff is the more talented QB. Some of the stuff in this thread is very Cult of Colt-ish.

[ncr2h]

fair enough.  i still think i saw enough of him throwing to know that when hes healthy and has an offseason he can get back to being a great passer.  you dont lead the entire NFL in YPA if throwing isnt your strong suit. 

 

and obviously we ran/run a run first offense and will continue that as long as shanahan is here.  so its tough to judge whether or not he can be successful in a throw first offense cause weve yet to see him in one.  this year he was FORCED to throw because we fell behind so badly, and most teams that are forced to throw that much because of being in a hole do not play well.

 

drew brees last year is the best example ever.  43 TDs, 19 INTs, QB rating of 90+, 5000+ yards, and his team was 7-9.  because he had a dreadful defense and was playing catchup constantly (similar same situation here).  and hes one of the best QBs in the league (and arguably the best QB in the NFC). 

But we aren't run first when Cousins is our QB.  We're winning?  Throw the ball.  We're losing?  Throw the ball.  Do you think Griffin's & Cousins' relative abilities as a passer don't have an effect on our playcalling?

This reminds of that great thread that claimed the McElroy kid out of Bama was gonna be an elite QB. That system failed horribly, and the criteria was much more loigcal.

I don't need some lame stats to tell me that Griff can be an elite QB. He's done it. Where? On the freaking football field.

I like Kirk, but I have no reason to believe that he can be an elite QB. Why? Cause he's never done it. And there's nothing elite about his play in any of the games in which he has started. Is it a small sample size? Sure. But I believe what I see on the field.

I can understand when people question whether Griff will be the same post-injury. It's a logical, sane debate. But when people question who has the higher ceiling in terms of talent between the two, it comes off as trolling. A blind man can see that Griff is the more talented QB. Some of the stuff in this thread is very Cult of Colt-ish.

He won't be an elite QB.  Plenty of QBs that have had amazing rookie years - Ben Roethlisburger, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton - went on to become outstanding passers in this league.  But not elite.  There's no shame in being a category 2 player.  But let's be realistic about category 1 (which is still available to Cousins, but no longer to RG3).  Cousins has a ceiling that is Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, etc.  RG3's ceiling is more like Big Ben, Steve McNair, Cam Newton - he'll be able to win you a ring if you've got a great defense and/or running game.  There's no shame in that.

[Rakpwned427]

But we aren't run first when Cousins is our QB. We're winning? Throw the ball. We're losing? Throw the ball. Do you think Griffin's & Cousins' relative abilities as a passer don't have an effect on our playcalling?

He won't be an elite QB. Plenty of QBs that have had amazing rookie years - Ben Roethlisburger, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton - went on to become outstanding passers in this league. But not elite. There's no shame in being a category 2 player. But let's be realistic about category 1 (which is still available to Cousins, but no longer to RG3). Cousins has a ceiling that is Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, etc. RG3's ceiling is more like Big Ben, Steve McNair, Cam Newton - he'll be able to win you a ring if you've got a great defense and/or running game. There's no shame in that.

So you Are comparing cousins to Rodgers and Brees based on two starts? You know that RG3 and Cam will never be elite 2 and 3 years into their careers respectively?

You make me embarassed to be a part of the same fan base.

[Garcon More Wine]

But we aren't run first when Cousins is our QB.  We're winning?  Throw the ball.  We're losing?  Throw the ball.  Do you think Griffin's & Cousins' relative abilities as a passer don't have an effect on our playcalling?

 

so because kirk played one game with a 60/40 pass/run split all the sudden were a passing team when kirk plays?  its one game dude.  and if you wanna count cleveland from over a year ago, its now two games lol.

 

do you seriously think that atlantas ****ing terrible pass defense and the fact they were starting 5 rookies didnt come into play when making that game plan?  and if were truly showcasing cousins talent as a passer, youd naturally dial up more pass plays for the guy right? 

 

and lol at cousins become elite.  the guy just turned the ball over 3 times in a game against arguably the worst pass defense in the league.  i think youre getting very carried away with a minute sample size (and ignoring his turnovers, which were all really bad)

[IrepDC]

This could be the foundation for some really good analysis, but again, it needs to be fleshed out more. Not enough variables are used in your analysis for such concrete conclusions to be made.

[DCranon21]

This could be the foundation for some really good analysis, but again, it needs to be fleshed out more. Not enough variables are used in your analysis for such concrete conclusions to be made.

 

You know what, I get this thread now. I just seen what the criteria is/was and he compared him to Terrell Pryor and some other QB's who are not in the league. You know the QB's who had to throw the ball 38+ times and won, had to come back because the run game was shut down. I need to see their run/pass ratio vs pass/run ratio. Also you need to figure what the scores were too. I see Luck is in your formula as well, but they were down 14+ from the games he had to pass and threw interceptions in those games. I call B.S. on this right now, and this is not a measure for a QB. 

[TD Riggo]

Its not biased.

Its actually a pretty damn well thought out post and its intriguing. He said ignore rg3s category, so chill out rg3 lovers.

This makes a lot of sense in today's nfl and I think its incredibly surprising the names you see and where they are listed is so accurate.

By the way, I could play qb for the Seahawks. That team surrounding Wilson's ridiculous. Wilson wouldn't do any better than Griff if Wilson was a redskin.

 

 

 it IS biased. It's easy to look at QB's career stats in hindsight, but then using the same criterion based on the only two years Griff and Cousins have put in the book is faulty "logic."

 

I DO agree with you on the Wilson/Seahags situation. Not to detract from Wilson's talent, because I think the kid is a legitimate star, but if you put him behind THIS O-line where Trent is our ONLY talent, I believe his career would be VERY different! The ONLY  thing I agree with OP on is keeping Cousins, even knowing we could probably get a good trade for him, but NOT because I have doubts about RG3's capabilities. Just because I think we need one more year with a solid backup for health reasons. I look forward to a fantastic season with a 100% RG3 who actually gets a chance to do normal offseason work.

[Warhead36]

Good post, agree with it for the most part although I wouldn't lump RG3 into the bust category just yet. I do think his best case scenario is a game manager who can occasionally light you up, and is good enough in the clutch to win games late. I don't think he's a guy you can rely on to throw the ball 40 times in a playoff game to win though.

[Ghost of]

 RG3's ceiling is more like Big Ben, Steve McNair, Cam Newton - he'll be able to win you a ring if you've got a great defense and/or running game.  There's no shame in that.

You didn't watch the Steelers at all the last two times they got to the SB did you?  Big Ben, while not the pocket surgeon Brees et al. are, has thrown for a lot more yards and had shootout games (including the SB with Arizona) and had to win, not on the back of a great defense, but as the MOST important part of the offense.  You could only make the case he rode a great D/running game for his first SB but not long after (and it's not like you could plug anyone into that team, otherwise someone else would have won the SB with them before, like Maddox) he was the main cog in their success, though he has, admittedly, been hurt and dealt with off-field things (allegations, motorcycle crash) that have derailed individual seasons.

[Rodriggo]

Marc Bulger and Drew Bledsoe top "Cat 1"...... End of analysis.

 

Pretty simple, this offense is built on running. If the QB is throwing 38 times a game it's not good.

 

Plus a 2 touchdown margin in the "modern NFL" is not a "blowout."

[KDawg]

I haven't read this entire last page, so forgive me...

Griffin is not blameless. But, uhhh, where do the defensive and special teams troubles fit in to these statistics that were presented? Cousins is a good QB. I believe Griffin is as well, but so often supporting cast is relegated to the back burner, and that's simply not how football works. It is the ultimate TEAM game.

[gortiz]

But we aren't run first when Cousins is our QB.  We're winning?  Throw the ball.  We're losing?  Throw the ball.  Do you think Griffin's & Cousins' relative abilities as a passer don't have an effect on our playcalling?

He won't be an elite QB.  Plenty of QBs that have had amazing rookie years - Ben Roethlisburger, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton - went on to become outstanding passers in this league.  But not elite.  There's no shame in being a category 2 player.  But let's be realistic about category 1 (which is still available to Cousins, but no longer to RG3).  Cousins has a ceiling that is Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, etc.  RG3's ceiling is more like Big Ben, Steve McNair, Cam Newton - he'll be able to win you a ring if you've got a great defense and/or running game.  There's no shame in that.

 

I mean ...how in the world can you be so definitive by saying he won't be an elite passer?  Most elite passers, were far from elite before ...they became elite. the NFL is riddled with stories like this. 

 

Brees did not start off elite. Neither did Rogers - if he was so damn elite why did it take  him 3 years to start his first game, its because he was not elite, he had a lot clipboard holding to do before he became elite. 

 

Steve Young? Honestly, explain why it took him until the age of 31 to throw over 20 TD's in a season??? Was he biding his time?

 

Favre? Threw 24 picks his third  year in the league. 

 

Alex Smith - as of today, is playing at an elite level ... he would have miserably failed your rating system. 

 

Based on your loose rational, you would have written off the majority of the guys you now call elite? Makes no sense. 

[Garcon More Wine]

I mean ...how in the world can you be so definitive by saying he won't be an elite passer?  Most elite passers, were far from elite before ...they became elite. the NFL is riddled with stories like this. 

 

Brees did not start off elite. Neither did Rogers - if he was so damn elite why did it take  him 3 years to start his first game, its because he was not elite, he had a lot clipboard holding to do before he became elite. 

 

Steve Young? Honestly, explain why it took him until the age of 31 to throw over 20 TD's in a season??? Was he biding his time?

 

Favre? Threw 24 picks his third  year in the league. 

 

Alex Smith - as of today, is playing at an elite level ... he would have miserably failed your rating system. 

 

Based on your loose rational, you would have written off the majority of the guys you now call elite? Makes no sense. 

 

tom brady was an above average game manager until 2007 who happened to be pretty clutch.  never had 30 TDs, had a mid 80s QB average, but had a sick defense and a great run game to lean on.  not until he was 30 years old did he start the crazy 35+ TD psycho QB stuff.

 

griffin will be 24 the next time he throws a pass. 

 

i will disagree on rodgers tho, he sat for a few years, but the second he showed up as a starter he was friggin sick.  4K and 28 TDs as a first time starter.  team went 6-10 as well haha

[gortiz]

tom brady was an above average game manager until 2007 who happened to be pretty clutch.  never had 30 TDs, had a mid 80s QB average, but had a sick defense and a great run game to lean on.  not until he was 30 years old did he start the crazy 35+ TD psycho QB stuff.

 

griffin will be 24 the next time he throws a pass. 

 

i will disagree on rodgers tho, he sat for a few years, but the second he showed up as a starter he was friggin sick.  4K and 28 TDs as a first time starter.  team went 6-10 as well haha

 

Great call on Brady ... he definitely was insulated by a crazy good coaching, crazy good leadership, and defense his first few years until he was able to go nuts. 

 

Agree with Rogers ... god, he is so good.  I'm just saying, imagine how good Robert would have come out (not discounting his almost historic rookie season) if sat behind Favre for three years until he was 25 like Rogers?? 

[Garcon More Wine]

Great call on Brady ... he definitely was insulated by a crazy good coaching, crazy good leadership, and defense his first few years until he was able to go nuts. 

 

Agree with Rogers ... god, he is so good.  I'm just saying, imagine how good Robert would have come out (not discounting his almost historic rookie season) if sat behind Favre for three years until he was 25 like Rogers?? 

 

griffin will work out as long as we dont pile on him.  i cant think of a single rookie aside from manning that did it by himself in his first couple years.  gotta have a supporting cast to start off, and we saw just how good he could be in 2012, that wasnt some fluke.

[Rakpwned427]

griffin will work out as long as we dont pile on him. i cant think of a single rookie aside from manning that did it by himself in his first couple years. gotta have a supporting cast to start off, and we saw just how good he could be in 2012, that wasnt some fluke.

Actually having an offseason on the field will be key. The guy has all the natural talent in the world. Learning protections and cleaning up his footwork will go a long way.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

 

He won't be an elite QB.  Plenty of QBs that have had amazing rookie years - Ben Roethlisburger, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton - went on to become outstanding passers in this league.  But not elite.  There's no shame in being a category 2 player.  But let's be realistic about category 1 (which is still available to Cousins, but no longer to RG3).  Cousins has a ceiling that is Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, etc.  RG3's ceiling is more like Big Ben, Steve McNair, Cam Newton - he'll be able to win you a ring if you've got a great defense and/or running game.  There's no shame in that.

Thank you so much for this insightful bit of pure speculative garbage, which is fitting for this thread.

I'm through with this clown show. Enjoy pulling for Kirk's next team.

[Garcon More Wine]

 

Thank you so much for this insightful bit of pure speculative garbage, which is fitting for this thread.

I'm through with this clown show. Enjoy pulling for Kirk's next team.

 

 

kirk will most likely get traded and amount to very little as a starter.

 

like matt cassel

like matt flynn

like kevin kolb

like charlie whitehurst

(tell me when to stop)

[Sekhmet187]

This is sad. And some posters wondered why I said I was so sick of people berating RGIII a few weeks ago because I knew crap like this would come. 

 

All these Nostradamus posts telling everyone the true future based on crappy analysis on statistics that are totally thrown together at random to fit an underlying theme, as opposed to looking at stats as a whole for one. 

 

Also, it bothers me that some fans think we should be positive and support the team, then go on and bash and insult one of the key players of that very same team. 

 

Hes not even in his 3rd season yet as a pro football player, and we already have people coming out of the woodwork ready to write the book on his career, despite the fact that every prediction this fanbase has made in decades usually is wrong.

 

For all the people who claim to know how RGIII's career is going to end, tell me how well you predicted our season to go and I'll tell you the chances of this one coming true.